A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Northwestern Wildcats enters 2026 rated 13th in the Big Ten (#49 nationally). The profile is a strong defense (#28) paired with a middling offense (#78). Schedule math puts the season at 5.4 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 5.4. 4 games project as clear underdog spots (Indiana, Penn State, Oregon, Ohio State). The season turns on 4 close games: Michigan State, Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 7-6 | 4-5 | #51 | #92 | #30 | #29 |
David Braun — year 4, 19-19 career.
OC: Chip Kelly (NEW)
DC: returning
Kelly hired as OC; brought dual-threat QB Chiles from MSU; physicality-focused roster with oversized linemen and skill players
57% overall, ranked #44 nationally.
Offense 57% · Defense 58%
132 returning starts, 15 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-06 | vs South Dakota State | FCS | +32.1 | 98% | Should win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | vs Colorado | #65 / +0.9 | +6.2 | 68% | Lean win |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | @ Indiana | #5 / +24.5 | -22.4 | 6% | Upset needed |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | vs Penn State | #17 / +15.7 | -8.6 | 25% | Upset needed |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | vs Ball State | #134 / -25.2 | +32.3 | 98% | Should win |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | @ Michigan State | #67 / +0.4 | +1.7 | 55% | Swing |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | vs Rutgers | #62 / +1.8 | +5.3 | 66% | Lean win |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | @ Oregon | #2 / +28.3 | -26.2 | 4% | Upset needed |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | vs Iowa | #22 / +13.6 | -6.5 | 31% | Lean loss |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | @ Ohio State | #1 / +31.8 | -29.7 | 2% | Upset needed |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | @ Minnesota | #45 / +5.2 | -3.1 | 40% | Lean loss |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | vs Illinois | #33 / +9.3 | -2.2 | 43% | Lean loss |
1.98
expected wins across 4 games
South Dakota State, Colorado, Indiana, Penn State
2.23
expected wins across 4 games
Ball State, Michigan State, Rutgers, Oregon
1.17
expected wins across 4 games
Iowa, Ohio State, Minnesota, Illinois
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Aidan Chiles
transfer (Michigan State) limited sample
Fun athlete; takes few risks with arm; runs into too many sacks; Big Ten experience; Kelly's dual-threat project
Off Sp Plus Streak · 8
Hasn't ranked in top 80 in offensive SP+ since 2018; bar appropriately low for Kelly
Road Schedule
Plays all of top 3 teams on the road; also hosts PSU Iowa Illinois; 2/3 of B1G slate vs top half
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State | #1 | +31.8 | #2 | #1 | 60% | #31 |
| 2 | Oregon | #2 | +28.3 | #1 | #3 | 66% | #12 |
| 3 | Indiana | #5 | +24.5 | #9 | #6 | 56% | #52 |
| 4 | USC | #13 | +16.8 | #6 | #29 | 65% | #14 |
| 5 | Michigan | #14 | +16.1 | #20 | #13 | 63% | #20 |
| 6 | Penn State | #17 | +15.7 | #14 | #23 | 52% | #67 |
| 7 | Washington | #21 | +14.5 | #22 | #19 | 65% | #16 |
| 8 | Iowa | #22 | +13.6 | #38 | #17 | 44% | #104 |
| 9 | Illinois | #33 | +9.3 | #28 | #44 | 50% | #76 |
| 10 | Nebraska | #37 | +7.7 | #49 | #39 | 69% | #3 |
| 11 | Minnesota | #45 | +5.2 | #71 | #24 | 68% | #8 |
| 12 | UCLA | #46 | +5.1 | #52 | #54 | 67% | #10 |
| 13 | Northwestern | #49 | +4.6 | #78 | #28 | 57% | #44 |
| 14 | Maryland | #55 | +3.8 | #65 | #43 | 71% | #2 |
| 15 | Wisconsin | #61 | +1.8 | #106 | #22 | 59% | #35 |
| 16 | Rutgers | #62 | +1.8 | #37 | #90 | 47% | #92 |
| 17 | Michigan State | #67 | +0.4 | #61 | #69 | 46% | #97 |
| 18 | Purdue | #82 | -2.9 | #86 | #79 | 58% | #40 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.