A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish is the highest-rated team in the ACC at #3 nationally. The profile is an elite defense (#9) paired with an elite offense (#3). Schedule math puts the season at 11.0 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 10.8.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 10-2 | N/A | #5 | #4 | #13 | #47 |
Marcus Freeman — year 5, 43-12 career.
OC: Mike Denbrock
DC: Chris Ash
Ash defense returns 14 of 20 players with 200+ snaps; added 4 transfers
72% overall, ranked #1 nationally.
Offense 67% · Defense 77%
191 returning starts, 17 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-06 | vs Wisconsin neutral | #61 / +1.8 | +24.0 | 95% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs Rice | #120 / -14.7 | +43.0 | 100% | Should win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | vs Michigan State | #67 / +0.4 | +27.9 | 97% | Should win |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | @ Purdue | #82 / -2.9 | +26.2 | 96% | Should win |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | @ North Carolina | #54 / +3.8 | +19.5 | 92% | Should win |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | vs Stanford | #75 / -1.9 | +30.2 | 98% | Should win |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | @ BYU | #18 / +15.5 | +7.8 | 73% | Lean win |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | vs Navy neutral | #63 / +1.1 | +24.7 | 96% | Should win |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-08 | vs Miami | #8 / +21.0 | +7.3 | 71% | Lean win |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | vs Boston College | #74 / -1.5 | +29.8 | 98% | Should win |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-22 | vs SMU | #28 / +10.9 | +17.4 | 90% | Should win |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | @ Syracuse | #69 / -0.7 | +24.0 | 95% | Should win |
3.88
expected wins across 4 games
Wisconsin, Rice, Michigan State, Purdue
3.58
expected wins across 4 games
North Carolina, Stanford, BYU, Navy
3.54
expected wins across 4 games
Miami, Boston College, SMU, Syracuse
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
CJ Carr
returning starter experienced
Could be nation's best QB; elite offense after 1-game ramp-up in 2025
Stuff Rate Rank · 57
Run stops at or behind the line; needs more disruption
Sack Rate Rank · 25
Pass rush rate; edge men Viliamu-Asa and Traore return
Favored By Margin · 10
Projected favorites of at least 17.4 points in 10 games
Ol Starts Returning · 41
Offensive line starts returning out of 60
Sos Rank · 62
Preseason SOS rank; only 3 projected top-50 opponents; committee risk
| Date | Matchup | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Nov. 7 | Miami at Notre Dame | National title game rematch; Mensah vs Carr; the marquee game of the ACC season |
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Notre Dame | #3 | +25.8 | #3 | #9 | 72% | #1 |
| 2 | Miami | #8 | +21.0 | #12 | #7 | 49% | #78 |
| 3 | Clemson | #23 | +12.8 | #48 | #16 | 53% | #60 |
| 4 | Louisville | #27 | +11.0 | #36 | #26 | 53% | #59 |
| 5 | SMU | #28 | +10.9 | #25 | #32 | 62% | #22 |
| 6 | Virginia Tech | #32 | +9.4 | #34 | #38 | 69% | #4 |
| 7 | Florida State | #35 | +8.8 | #45 | #30 | 57% | #48 |
| 8 | Virginia | #40 | +6.6 | #63 | #27 | 59% | #36 |
| 9 | Pittsburgh | #41 | +6.5 | #40 | #53 | 58% | #41 |
| 10 | Georgia Tech | #43 | +6.0 | #53 | #51 | 49% | #79 |
| 11 | Duke | #44 | +5.7 | #19 | #81 | 49% | #77 |
| 12 | NC State | #48 | +4.9 | #35 | #64 | 54% | #58 |
| 13 | North Carolina | #54 | +3.8 | #80 | #35 | 44% | #103 |
| 14 | California | #56 | +3.7 | #50 | #62 | 58% | #43 |
| 15 | Wake Forest | #58 | +3.6 | #83 | #31 | 53% | #62 |
| 16 | Syracuse | #69 | -0.7 | #85 | #59 | 62% | #27 |
| 17 | Boston College | #74 | -1.5 | #67 | #80 | 50% | #74 |
| 18 | Stanford | #75 | -1.9 | #97 | #55 | 60% | #33 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.