A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Ohio State Buckeyes is the highest-rated team in the Big Ten at #1 nationally. The profile is an elite defense (#1) paired with an elite offense (#2). Schedule math puts the season at 10.5 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 10.2.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 12-2 | 9-1 | #2 | #13 | #1 | #67 |
Ryan Day — year 8, 82-12 career.
OC: Arthur Smith (NEW)
DC: Matt Patricia
Smith was NFL OC/HC for 7 seasons; succeeded only at Tennessee with Derrick Henry; safe quick horizontal passing history
60% overall, ranked #31 nationally.
Offense 71% · Defense 50%
122 returning starts, 9 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | vs Ball State | #134 / -25.2 | +59.5 | 100% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | @ Texas | #6 / +23.7 | +5.6 | 67% | Lean win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | vs Kent State | #128 / -20.1 | +54.4 | 100% | Should win |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | vs Illinois | #33 / +9.3 | +25.0 | 96% | Should win |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | @ Iowa | #22 / +13.6 | +15.7 | 88% | Should win |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | vs Maryland | #55 / +3.8 | +30.5 | 98% | Should win |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | @ Indiana | #5 / +24.5 | +4.8 | 65% | Lean win |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | @ USC | #13 / +16.8 | +12.5 | 83% | Should win |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | vs Oregon | #2 / +28.3 | +6.0 | 68% | Lean win |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | vs Northwestern | #49 / +4.6 | +29.7 | 98% | Should win |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | @ Nebraska | #37 / +7.7 | +21.6 | 94% | Should win |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | vs Michigan | #14 / +16.1 | +18.2 | 91% | Should win |
3.62
expected wins across 4 games
Ball State, Texas, Kent State, Illinois
3.33
expected wins across 4 games
Iowa, Maryland, Indiana, USC
3.50
expected wins across 4 games
Oregon, Northwestern, Nebraska, Michigan
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Julian Sayin
returning starter experienced
Training wheels came off; slowest tempo in country 2025; low avg pass distance; must prove he can shift gears in big games
Terry Moore (S, from Duke)
ACL recovery; 6 TFL / 4 INT / 5 breakups in 2024 ACC standout season
Avg Margin 11Win · 39-8
Won 11 straight after Texas slog by average 39-8; ruthlessly efficient
Conservative Collapse · 24_points
Scored 24 total points in Big Ten title game and CFP quarterfinal combined; conservative plan backfired
Smith Career · 2558
Jeremiah Smith: 2558 receiving yds 29 total TDs in 2 seasons entering junior year
Draft Picks · 5
3 defenders in first 11 picks + 2 more in 2nd round; massive defensive attrition
| Date | Matchup | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Oct. 17 | Ohio State at Indiana | Big Ten title game rematch; defending champs host No.1 SP+ team; conference desperately trying to ditch title games |
| Nov. 7 | Oregon at Ohio State | Only 2 B1G teams with winning records vs OSU this decade: Michigan (4-1) and Oregon (2-1); Bucks lost last home game to each |
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State | #1 | +31.8 | #2 | #1 | 60% | #31 |
| 2 | Oregon | #2 | +28.3 | #1 | #3 | 66% | #12 |
| 3 | Indiana | #5 | +24.5 | #9 | #6 | 56% | #52 |
| 4 | USC | #13 | +16.8 | #6 | #29 | 65% | #14 |
| 5 | Michigan | #14 | +16.1 | #20 | #13 | 63% | #20 |
| 6 | Penn State | #17 | +15.7 | #14 | #23 | 52% | #67 |
| 7 | Washington | #21 | +14.5 | #22 | #19 | 65% | #16 |
| 8 | Iowa | #22 | +13.6 | #38 | #17 | 44% | #104 |
| 9 | Illinois | #33 | +9.3 | #28 | #44 | 50% | #76 |
| 10 | Nebraska | #37 | +7.7 | #49 | #39 | 69% | #3 |
| 11 | Minnesota | #45 | +5.2 | #71 | #24 | 68% | #8 |
| 12 | UCLA | #46 | +5.1 | #52 | #54 | 67% | #10 |
| 13 | Northwestern | #49 | +4.6 | #78 | #28 | 57% | #44 |
| 14 | Maryland | #55 | +3.8 | #65 | #43 | 71% | #2 |
| 15 | Wisconsin | #61 | +1.8 | #106 | #22 | 59% | #35 |
| 16 | Rutgers | #62 | +1.8 | #37 | #90 | 47% | #92 |
| 17 | Michigan State | #67 | +0.4 | #61 | #69 | 46% | #97 |
| 18 | Purdue | #82 | -2.9 | #86 | #79 | 58% | #40 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.