A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Oklahoma Sooners enters 2026 rated 6th in the SEC (#12 nationally). The profile is an elite defense (#10) paired with a strong offense (#27). Schedule math puts the season at 7.4 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 7.3. 1 game project as clear underdog spots (Georgia). The season turns on 6 close games: Michigan, Texas, Florida, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Missouri.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 10-3 | 6-2 | #14 | #51 | #4 | #33 |
Brent Venables — year 5, 32-20 career.
OC: Ben Arbuckle
DC: returning
Arbuckle offense still work in progress
68% overall, ranked #7 nationally.
Offense 75% · Defense 61%
137 returning starts, 11 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | vs UTEP | #129 / -20.5 | +40.2 | 99% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | @ Michigan | #14 / +16.1 | -1.4 | 46% | Swing |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | vs New Mexico | #68 / -0.5 | +20.2 | 93% | Should win |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | @ Georgia | #4 / +25.5 | -10.8 | 21% | Upset needed |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | vs Texas neutral | #6 / +23.7 | -6.5 | 31% | Lean loss |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | vs Kentucky | #53 / +3.8 | +15.9 | 88% | Should win |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | @ Mississippi State | #52 / +3.9 | +10.8 | 79% | Lean win |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | vs South Carolina | #24 / +12.1 | +7.6 | 72% | Lean win |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | @ Florida | #19 / +14.9 | -0.2 | 49% | Swing |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | vs Ole Miss | #16 / +15.9 | +3.8 | 62% | Swing |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | vs Texas A&M | #9 / +20.3 | -0.6 | 48% | Swing |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | @ Missouri | #20 / +14.8 | -0.1 | 50% | Swing |
2.58
expected wins across 4 games
UTEP, Michigan, New Mexico, Georgia
2.70
expected wins across 4 games
Texas, Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina
2.09
expected wins across 4 games
Florida, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Missouri
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
John Mateer
returning starter experienced
Physical runner; injured in 2025; health always a question
Off Sp Plus 2024 · 75
Offensive SP+ in Venables Year 3
Off Sp Plus 2025 · 51
Improved with Mateer despite injury
Run Ypr Rank 2025 · 124
Yards per rush sacks excluded
Def Sp Plus 2025 · 4
Elite defense carried team to CFP
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgia | #4 | +25.5 | #5 | #5 | 68% | #9 |
| 2 | Texas | #6 | +23.7 | #7 | #8 | 68% | #6 |
| 3 | Texas A&M | #9 | +20.3 | #10 | #14 | 65% | #15 |
| 4 | LSU | #10 | +20.2 | #21 | #2 | 61% | #30 |
| 5 | Alabama | #11 | +18.2 | #32 | #4 | 48% | #90 |
| 6 | Oklahoma | #12 | +17.2 | #27 | #10 | 68% | #7 |
| 7 | Tennessee | #15 | +16.0 | #4 | #50 | 62% | #26 |
| 8 | Ole Miss | #16 | +15.9 | #11 | #25 | 61% | #28 |
| 9 | Florida | #19 | +14.9 | #39 | #12 | 66% | #11 |
| 10 | Missouri | #20 | +14.8 | #24 | #15 | 51% | #70 |
| 11 | South Carolina | #24 | +12.1 | #44 | #21 | 68% | #5 |
| 12 | Auburn | #26 | +11.2 | #55 | #18 | 57% | #46 |
| 13 | Vanderbilt | #31 | +10.0 | #15 | #56 | 44% | #106 |
| 14 | Arkansas | #47 | +5.0 | #13 | #91 | 55% | #56 |
| 15 | Mississippi State | #52 | +3.9 | #41 | #76 | 48% | #86 |
| 16 | Kentucky | #53 | +3.8 | #75 | #36 | 46% | #98 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.