A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Oklahoma State Cowboys enters 2026 rated 8th in the Big 12 (#38 nationally). The profile is an above average defense (#52) paired with an above average offense (#42). Schedule math puts the season at 6.6 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 6.4. 2 games project as clear underdog spots (Oregon, Texas Tech). The season turns on 5 close games: West Virginia, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas State, Arizona State.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 1-11 | 0-9 | #121 | #131 | #100 | #26 |
Eric Morris — year 1, N/A (new hire) career.
OC: Morris (brought North Texas offense)
DC: Skyler Cassity (NEW)
Morris brought half of North Texas No.1 offense with him; Cassity from Sam Houston/UNT
58% overall, ranked #42 nationally.
Offense 62% · Defense 53%
34 returning starts, 7 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | @ Tulsa | #96 / -7.6 | +12.2 | 82% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs Oregon | #2 / +28.3 | -18.7 | 9% | Upset needed |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | vs Murray State | FCS | +34.6 | 99% | Should win |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | @ West Virginia | #66 / +0.8 | +3.8 | 62% | Swing |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | vs UCF | #60 / +2.3 | +7.3 | 71% | Lean win |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | @ Houston | #36 / +8.2 | -3.6 | 39% | Lean loss |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | vs Colorado | #65 / +0.9 | +8.7 | 75% | Lean win |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | @ Iowa State | #64 / +1.0 | +3.6 | 61% | Swing |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | @ Kansas State | #29 / +10.4 | -5.8 | 33% | Lean loss |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | vs Texas Tech | #7 / +23.1 | -13.5 | 16% | Upset needed |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | @ Arizona State | #42 / +6.4 | -1.8 | 44% | Lean loss |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | vs Kansas | #57 / +3.7 | +5.9 | 68% | Lean win |
2.51
expected wins across 4 games
Tulsa, Oregon, Murray State, West Virginia
2.46
expected wins across 4 games
UCF, Houston, Colorado, Iowa State
1.60
expected wins across 4 games
Kansas State, Texas Tech, Arizona State, Kansas
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Drew Mestemaker
transfer (North Texas) experienced
4300-yd passer; followed Morris from UNT; also played at Oklahoma; brought half the offense with him
Wendell Gregory (DE, from Oklahoma State)
15.5 TFLs 19 run stops 4 sacks as redshirt freshman on worst-in-generation OSU team
Record 2025 · 1-11
Worst squad in 60+ years; Morris brought entire North Texas No.1 offense
Off Transfers Brought · 6
Mestemaker Hawkins Young Coleman Nelson Dickson all followed Morris from North Texas
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas Tech | #7 | +23.1 | #8 | #11 | 65% | #12 |
| 2 | BYU | #18 | +15.5 | #16 | #20 | 64% | #18 |
| 3 | Utah | #25 | +11.9 | #18 | #34 | 55% | #54 |
| 4 | Kansas State | #29 | +10.4 | #17 | #49 | 58% | #38 |
| 5 | Arizona | #30 | +10.2 | #29 | #33 | 60% | #32 |
| 6 | TCU | #34 | +9.1 | #31 | #40 | 51% | #69 |
| 7 | Houston | #36 | +8.2 | #30 | #45 | 65% | #17 |
| 8 | Oklahoma State | #38 | +7.1 | #42 | #52 | 58% | #42 |
| 9 | Arizona State | #42 | +6.4 | #57 | #37 | 51% | #71 |
| 10 | Cincinnati | #50 | +4.5 | #46 | #65 | 57% | #50 |
| 11 | Baylor | #51 | +4.5 | #23 | #87 | 53% | #61 |
| 12 | Kansas | #57 | +3.7 | #51 | #70 | 58% | #39 |
| 13 | UCF | #60 | +2.3 | #79 | #41 | 61% | #29 |
| 14 | Iowa State | #64 | +1.0 | #94 | #42 | 45% | #102 |
| 15 | Colorado | #65 | +0.9 | #64 | #57 | 55% | #55 |
| 16 | West Virginia | #66 | +0.8 | #62 | #66 | 52% | #66 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.