A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Oregon Ducks enters 2026 rated 2nd in the Big Ten (#2 nationally). The profile is an elite defense (#3) paired with an elite offense (#1). Schedule math puts the season at 10.4 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 10.2. The season turns on 1 close game: Ohio State.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 13-2 | 8-1 | #4 | #10 | #5 | #50 |
Dan Lanning — year 5, 48-8 career.
OC: Drew Mehringer (promoted co-OC)
DC: Chris Hampton (promoted co-DC)
Both Stein (Kentucky HC) and Lupoi (Cal HC) left; Lanning promoted co-coordinators on both sides
66% overall, ranked #12 nationally.
Offense 65% · Defense 66%
200 returning starts, 9 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | vs Boise State | #39 / +6.8 | +24.0 | 95% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | @ Oklahoma State | #38 / +7.1 | +18.7 | 91% | Should win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | vs Portland State | FCS | +55.8 | 100% | Should win |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | @ USC | #13 / +16.8 | +9.0 | 75% | Lean win |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | vs UCLA | #46 / +5.1 | +25.7 | 96% | Should win |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | vs Nebraska | #37 / +7.7 | +23.1 | 95% | Should win |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | @ Illinois | #33 / +9.3 | +16.5 | 89% | Should win |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | vs Northwestern | #49 / +4.6 | +26.2 | 96% | Should win |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | @ Ohio State | #1 / +31.8 | -6.0 | 32% | Lean loss |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | vs Michigan | #14 / +16.1 | +14.7 | 86% | Should win |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | @ Michigan State | #67 / +0.4 | +25.4 | 96% | Should win |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | vs Washington | #21 / +14.5 | +16.3 | 88% | Should win |
3.62
expected wins across 4 games
Boise State, Oklahoma State, Portland State, USC
3.76
expected wins across 4 games
UCLA, Nebraska, Illinois, Northwestern
3.03
expected wins across 4 games
Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Washington
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Dante Moore
returning starter experienced
3565 yds 30 TDs in first year as starter; elected to return; overloaded skill corps despite injuries
Koi Perich (S, from Minnesota)
82 tackles / 3 TFL / elite 26.3 yd kick return avg
Title Game Record · 1-5
1-5 vs teams that ended up in title game; 37-0 vs everyone else; beating Oregon means guaranteed greatness
Sp Plus Streak · 3-3-4
Finished 3rd 3rd 4th in SP+ since 2023; 3 top-10 offenses and top-10 defense; breakthrough will come
Davison Hill Yds · 1323
Sophomore RBs Davison and Hill combined for 1323 yds (7.0 ypc) and 20 TDs
Ol Cfp Struggles
Offensive line overwhelmed in each of past 2 CFP losses; new OL for 2nd straight year
| Date | Matchup | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Nov. 7 | Oregon at Ohio State | Only 2 B1G teams with winning records vs OSU this decade: Michigan (4-1) and Oregon (2-1); Bucks lost last home game to each |
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State | #1 | +31.8 | #2 | #1 | 60% | #31 |
| 2 | Oregon | #2 | +28.3 | #1 | #3 | 66% | #12 |
| 3 | Indiana | #5 | +24.5 | #9 | #6 | 56% | #52 |
| 4 | USC | #13 | +16.8 | #6 | #29 | 65% | #14 |
| 5 | Michigan | #14 | +16.1 | #20 | #13 | 63% | #20 |
| 6 | Penn State | #17 | +15.7 | #14 | #23 | 52% | #67 |
| 7 | Washington | #21 | +14.5 | #22 | #19 | 65% | #16 |
| 8 | Iowa | #22 | +13.6 | #38 | #17 | 44% | #104 |
| 9 | Illinois | #33 | +9.3 | #28 | #44 | 50% | #76 |
| 10 | Nebraska | #37 | +7.7 | #49 | #39 | 69% | #3 |
| 11 | Minnesota | #45 | +5.2 | #71 | #24 | 68% | #8 |
| 12 | UCLA | #46 | +5.1 | #52 | #54 | 67% | #10 |
| 13 | Northwestern | #49 | +4.6 | #78 | #28 | 57% | #44 |
| 14 | Maryland | #55 | +3.8 | #65 | #43 | 71% | #2 |
| 15 | Wisconsin | #61 | +1.8 | #106 | #22 | 59% | #35 |
| 16 | Rutgers | #62 | +1.8 | #37 | #90 | 47% | #92 |
| 17 | Michigan State | #67 | +0.4 | #61 | #69 | 46% | #97 |
| 18 | Purdue | #82 | -2.9 | #86 | #79 | 58% | #40 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.