A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Oregon State Beavers enters 2026 rated 6th in the Pac-12 (#91 nationally). The profile is a middling defense (#74) paired with a below average offense (#104). Schedule math puts the season at 5.0 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 5.1. 3 games project as clear underdog spots (Houston, Texas Tech, Boise State). The season turns on 6 close games: Colorado State, San Diego State, Washington State, Fresno State, Texas State, Utah State.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 2-10 | 1-1 | #126 | #126 | #96 | #135 |
JaMarcus Shephard — year 1, N/A (new hire) career.
OC: NEW
DC: Mike MacIntyre
Shephard passionate; job of extremes (9+ wins or losses 13 times in 31 seasons); inherited few known difference-makers
47% overall, ranked #94 nationally.
Offense 49% · Defense 44%
96 returning starts, 16 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | @ Houston | #36 / +8.2 | -17.0 | 11% | Upset needed |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs Texas Tech | #7 / +23.1 | -26.9 | 3% | Upset needed |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-20 | vs Montana | FCS | +21.2 | 93% | Should win |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-27 | @ UTEP | #129 / -20.5 | +11.7 | 81% | Should win |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | @ Colorado State | #99 / -8.3 | -0.5 | 48% | Swing |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | vs San Diego State | #71 / -1.3 | -2.5 | 42% | Lean loss |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | vs Washington State | #85 / -5.3 | +1.5 | 55% | Swing |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | @ Fresno State | #78 / -2.3 | -6.5 | 31% | Lean loss |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-08 | vs Texas State | #89 / -5.9 | +2.1 | 57% | Swing |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | @ Boise State | #39 / +6.8 | -15.6 | 12% | Upset needed |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-22 | vs Utah State | #97 / -7.7 | +3.9 | 62% | Swing |
1.89
expected wins across 4 games
Houston, Texas Tech, Montana, UTEP
1.76
expected wins across 4 games
Colorado State, San Diego State, Washington State, Fresno State
1.31
expected wins across 3 games
Texas State, Boise State, Utah State
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Maalik Murphy
returning starter limited sample
Decent; major improvement requires massive transfer help; few known difference-makers on offense
Extreme Program · 13
9+ wins or 9+ losses 13 times in 31 seasons (nearly half); boom or bust
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boise State | #39 | +6.8 | #43 | #46 | 57% | #45 |
| 2 | San Diego State | #71 | -1.3 | #93 | #60 | 59% | #34 |
| 3 | Fresno State | #78 | -2.3 | #105 | #47 | 53% | #63 |
| 4 | Washington State | #85 | -5.3 | #110 | #61 | 42% | #109 |
| 5 | Texas State | #89 | -5.9 | #26 | #129 | 56% | #51 |
| 6 | Oregon State | #91 | -6.3 | #104 | #74 | 47% | #94 |
| 7 | Utah State | #97 | -7.7 | #87 | #100 | 48% | #89 |
| 8 | Colorado State | #99 | -8.3 | #113 | #78 | 46% | #99 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.