A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Purdue Boilermakers enters 2026 rated 18th in the Big Ten (#82 nationally). The profile is a below average defense (#79) paired with a below average offense (#86). Schedule math puts the season at 3.2 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 3.5. 7 games project as clear underdog spots (UCLA, Notre Dame, Illinois, Washington, Penn State, Iowa, Indiana). The season turns on 4 close games: Wake Forest, Minnesota, Maryland, Wisconsin.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 2-10 | 0-9 | #90 | #104 | #90 | #4 |
Barry Odom — year 2, 2-10 career.
OC: returning
DC: Kevin Kane (returned)
Kane returns to job he held 2023-24 under Walters; Odom brought 54 transfers in 2025 then 29 more this offseason
58% overall, ranked #40 nationally.
Offense 61% · Defense 55%
86 returning starts, 9 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-04 | vs Indiana State | FCS | +24.6 | 96% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs Wake Forest | #58 / +3.6 | -4.0 | 38% | Lean loss |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-20 | @ UCLA | #46 / +5.1 | -10.5 | 21% | Upset needed |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | vs Notre Dame | #3 / +25.8 | -26.2 | 4% | Upset needed |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | @ Illinois | #33 / +9.3 | -14.7 | 14% | Upset needed |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | vs Minnesota | #45 / +5.2 | -5.6 | 33% | Lean loss |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | vs Washington | #21 / +14.5 | -14.9 | 13% | Upset needed |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | @ Penn State | #17 / +15.7 | -21.1 | 7% | Upset needed |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | vs Maryland | #55 / +3.8 | -4.2 | 37% | Lean loss |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | @ Iowa | #22 / +13.6 | -19.0 | 9% | Upset needed |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | vs Wisconsin | #61 / +1.8 | -2.2 | 43% | Lean loss |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | @ Indiana | #5 / +24.5 | -29.9 | 2% | Upset needed |
1.58
expected wins across 4 games
Indiana State, Wake Forest, UCLA, Notre Dame
0.67
expected wins across 4 games
Illinois, Minnesota, Washington, Penn State
0.91
expected wins across 4 games
Maryland, Iowa, Wisconsin, Indiana
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Ryan Browne
returning starter limited sample
Could be decent with better supporting cast; only 4 of 14 offensive players with 200+ snaps return
Mister Clark (NB, from FIU)
Do-it-all nickel; 12 breakups / 3 INT / 6 run stops / 48 solo tackles
Record 3Yr · 7-29
7-29 in past 3 years after winning 17 in Brohm's last 2; Indiana surging simultaneously
Transfer Volume · 83
Brought 54 transfers in 2025 then 29 more in 2026; extremely new two-deep; only 10 of 29 players with 200+ snaps return
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State | #1 | +31.8 | #2 | #1 | 60% | #31 |
| 2 | Oregon | #2 | +28.3 | #1 | #3 | 66% | #12 |
| 3 | Indiana | #5 | +24.5 | #9 | #6 | 56% | #52 |
| 4 | USC | #13 | +16.8 | #6 | #29 | 65% | #14 |
| 5 | Michigan | #14 | +16.1 | #20 | #13 | 63% | #20 |
| 6 | Penn State | #17 | +15.7 | #14 | #23 | 52% | #67 |
| 7 | Washington | #21 | +14.5 | #22 | #19 | 65% | #16 |
| 8 | Iowa | #22 | +13.6 | #38 | #17 | 44% | #104 |
| 9 | Illinois | #33 | +9.3 | #28 | #44 | 50% | #76 |
| 10 | Nebraska | #37 | +7.7 | #49 | #39 | 69% | #3 |
| 11 | Minnesota | #45 | +5.2 | #71 | #24 | 68% | #8 |
| 12 | UCLA | #46 | +5.1 | #52 | #54 | 67% | #10 |
| 13 | Northwestern | #49 | +4.6 | #78 | #28 | 57% | #44 |
| 14 | Maryland | #55 | +3.8 | #65 | #43 | 71% | #2 |
| 15 | Wisconsin | #61 | +1.8 | #106 | #22 | 59% | #35 |
| 16 | Rutgers | #62 | +1.8 | #37 | #90 | 47% | #92 |
| 17 | Michigan State | #67 | +0.4 | #61 | #69 | 46% | #97 |
| 18 | Purdue | #82 | -2.9 | #86 | #79 | 58% | #40 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.