A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights enters 2026 rated 16th in the Big Ten (#62 nationally). The profile is a below average defense (#90) paired with a strong offense (#37). Schedule math puts the season at 5.2 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 5.4. 4 games project as clear underdog spots (USC, Indiana, Michigan, Penn State). The season turns on 6 close games: Boston College, Maryland, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Michigan State.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 5-7 | 2-7 | #72 | #42 | #95 | #68 |
Greg Schiano — year 18 (over 2 tenures), 99-108 career.
OC: Kirk Ciarrocca
DC: Travis Johansen (NEW)
Johansen first FBS job; from South Dakota; total defensive teardown with only 2 of 17 defenders returning
47% overall, ranked #92 nationally.
Offense 49% · Defense 46%
83 returning starts, 23 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-03 | vs Massachusetts | #137 / -30.9 | +35.2 | 99% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-11 | @ Boston College | #74 / -1.5 | +0.8 | 52% | Swing |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | vs USC | #13 / +16.8 | -12.5 | 17% | Upset needed |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-25 | vs Howard | FCS | +29.3 | 98% | Should win |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-04 | vs Indiana | #5 / +24.5 | -20.2 | 7% | Upset needed |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | @ Maryland | #55 / +3.8 | -4.5 | 36% | Lean loss |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | @ Northwestern | #49 / +4.6 | -5.3 | 34% | Lean loss |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | vs Michigan | #14 / +16.1 | -11.8 | 19% | Upset needed |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | @ Wisconsin | #61 / +1.8 | -2.5 | 42% | Lean loss |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | vs Nebraska | #37 / +7.7 | -3.4 | 40% | Lean loss |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | @ Penn State | #17 / +15.7 | -16.4 | 11% | Upset needed |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | vs Michigan State | #67 / +0.4 | +3.9 | 62% | Swing |
2.66
expected wins across 4 games
Massachusetts, Boston College, USC, Howard
0.96
expected wins across 4 games
Indiana, Maryland, Northwestern, Michigan
1.55
expected wins across 4 games
Wisconsin, Nebraska, Penn State, Michigan State
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Dylan Lonergan vs AJ Surace
battle (BC transfer vs sophomore) limited sample
Lonergan reasonably known entity; Surace has more upside; whoever wins has easy job: hand to Raymond throw to Duff
Def Sp Plus · 95
Plummeted to 95th in defensive SP+; 131st in success rate allowed; 136th (dead last) in yds per successful play
Def Returners · 2
Only 2 of 17 defenders with 100+ snaps return; combined for only 2 TFLs last season; total teardown
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State | #1 | +31.8 | #2 | #1 | 60% | #31 |
| 2 | Oregon | #2 | +28.3 | #1 | #3 | 66% | #12 |
| 3 | Indiana | #5 | +24.5 | #9 | #6 | 56% | #52 |
| 4 | USC | #13 | +16.8 | #6 | #29 | 65% | #14 |
| 5 | Michigan | #14 | +16.1 | #20 | #13 | 63% | #20 |
| 6 | Penn State | #17 | +15.7 | #14 | #23 | 52% | #67 |
| 7 | Washington | #21 | +14.5 | #22 | #19 | 65% | #16 |
| 8 | Iowa | #22 | +13.6 | #38 | #17 | 44% | #104 |
| 9 | Illinois | #33 | +9.3 | #28 | #44 | 50% | #76 |
| 10 | Nebraska | #37 | +7.7 | #49 | #39 | 69% | #3 |
| 11 | Minnesota | #45 | +5.2 | #71 | #24 | 68% | #8 |
| 12 | UCLA | #46 | +5.1 | #52 | #54 | 67% | #10 |
| 13 | Northwestern | #49 | +4.6 | #78 | #28 | 57% | #44 |
| 14 | Maryland | #55 | +3.8 | #65 | #43 | 71% | #2 |
| 15 | Wisconsin | #61 | +1.8 | #106 | #22 | 59% | #35 |
| 16 | Rutgers | #62 | +1.8 | #37 | #90 | 47% | #92 |
| 17 | Michigan State | #67 | +0.4 | #61 | #69 | 46% | #97 |
| 18 | Purdue | #82 | -2.9 | #86 | #79 | 58% | #40 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.