A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Sacramento State Hornets enters 2026 rated 11th in the MAC (#130 nationally). The profile is a poor defense (#131) paired with a poor offense (#127). Schedule math puts the season at 3.8 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 4.3. 7 games project as clear underdog spots (Eastern Michigan, Fresno State, North Dakota State, Bowling Green, Toledo, Central Michigan, Hawai'i). The season turns on 3 close games: Ohio, Ball State, Kent State.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
Alonzo Carter — year 1, N/A (new hire) career.
OC: NEW
DC: NEW
Celebrated California assistant with great dance moves; Marion left for Colorado OC; basically 4 total starters return 1 on offense
32% overall, ranked #131 nationally.
Offense 21% · Defense 42%
0 returning starts, 13 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-08-29 | @ Eastern Michigan | #121 / -15.0 | -10.2 | 22% | Upset needed |
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-06 | vs Mississippi Valley State | FCS | +4.8 | 65% | Lean win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-13 | @ Fresno State | #78 / -2.3 | -22.9 | 5% | Upset needed |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-20 | vs North Dakota State | #72 / -1.4 | -18.8 | 9% | Upset needed |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | vs Massachusetts | #137 / -30.9 | +10.7 | 79% | Lean win |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | @ Bowling Green | #115 / -13.3 | -11.9 | 18% | Upset needed |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | vs Ohio | #117 / -13.6 | -6.6 | 30% | Lean loss |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | @ Ball State | #134 / -25.2 | +0.0 | 50% | Swing |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | vs Kent State | #128 / -20.1 | -0.1 | 50% | Swing |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-04 | vs Toledo | #108 / -11.5 | -8.7 | 25% | Upset needed |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-11 | @ Central Michigan | #113 / -12.4 | -12.8 | 17% | Upset needed |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | @ Hawai'i | #84 / -3.9 | -21.3 | 7% | Upset needed |
1.00
expected wins across 4 games
Eastern Michigan, Mississippi Valley State, Fresno State, North Dakota State
1.78
expected wins across 4 games
Massachusetts, Bowling Green, Ohio, Ball State
0.98
expected wins across 4 games
Kent State, Toledo, Central Michigan, Hawai'i
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Carson Conklin
transfer (Fresno State) limited sample
Freshman star at Sac State then 2025 backup at Fresno State; returns to Sac State; only 1 offensive starter returns
Marion Departure
Marion left for Colorado OC (Sean Lewis parallel); 4 total starters return 1 on offense; 130th SP+ equivalent last FCS season
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami (OH) | #81 | -2.9 | #111 | #48 | 49% | #84 |
| 2 | Western Michigan | #95 | -7.2 | #112 | #68 | 51% | #72 |
| 3 | Toledo | #108 | -11.5 | #121 | #84 | 33% | #130 |
| 4 | Buffalo | #110 | -11.9 | #126 | #85 | 30% | #135 |
| 5 | Central Michigan | #113 | -12.4 | #116 | #92 | 46% | #100 |
| 6 | Bowling Green | #115 | -13.3 | #128 | #88 | 35% | #124 |
| 7 | Ohio | #117 | -13.6 | #134 | #72 | 33% | #129 |
| 8 | Eastern Michigan | #121 | -15.0 | #115 | #112 | 62% | #24 |
| 9 | Akron | #127 | -19.5 | #135 | #106 | 40% | #115 |
| 10 | Kent State | #128 | -20.1 | #125 | #127 | 48% | #87 |
| 11 | Sacramento State | #130 | -22.7 | #127 | #131 | 32% | #131 |
| 12 | Ball State | #134 | -25.2 | #136 | #128 | 36% | #123 |
| 13 | Massachusetts | #137 | -30.9 | #138 | #136 | 46% | #96 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.