A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Sam Houston Bearkats enters 2026 rated 10th in the Conference USA (#136 nationally). The profile is a poor defense (#135) paired with a poor offense (#131). Schedule math puts the season at 2.3 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 2.8. 10 games project as clear underdog spots (Troy, Tulsa, Texas Tech, Liberty, Western Kentucky, New Mexico State, Missouri State, Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State, Florida International). The season turns on 2 close games: Nicholls, Middle Tennessee.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 2-10 | 1-7 | #135 | #129 | #135 | #105 |
Phil Longo — year 2, 2-10 career.
OC: returning
DC: returning
Longo from OU/offense; focused on athleticism over production in portal; 2nd transition year; back in Bowers Stadium
49% overall, ranked #80 nationally.
Offense 52% · Defense 46%
84 returning starts, 10 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | @ Troy | #90 / -6.0 | -22.8 | 5% | Upset needed |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs Tulsa | #96 / -7.6 | -16.2 | 12% | Upset needed |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | vs Nicholls | FCS | +1.2 | 54% | Swing |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | @ Texas Tech | #7 / +23.1 | -51.9 | 0% | Upset needed |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-08 | @ Liberty | #93 / -6.4 | -22.4 | 6% | Upset needed |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-15 | vs Western Kentucky | #86 / -5.3 | -18.5 | 9% | Upset needed |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-22 | vs New Mexico State | #123 / -16.4 | -7.4 | 28% | Upset needed |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-28 | @ Missouri State | #126 / -18.7 | -10.1 | 22% | Upset needed |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-08 | @ Jacksonville State | #98 / -7.7 | -21.1 | 7% | Upset needed |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | vs Kennesaw State | #105 / -9.3 | -14.5 | 14% | Upset needed |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | vs Middle Tennessee | #135 / -26.0 | +2.2 | 57% | Swing |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | @ Florida International | #118 / -13.7 | -15.1 | 13% | Upset needed |
0.71
expected wins across 4 games
Troy, Tulsa, Nicholls, Texas Tech
0.65
expected wins across 4 games
Liberty, Western Kentucky, New Mexico State, Missouri State
0.91
expected wins across 4 games
Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State, Middle Tennessee, Florida International
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Landyn Locke
returning (sophomore) limited sample
Counting on sophomore returnees; Longo focused portal on athleticism over production; 2nd straight transition year
Josiah Chenault (OL, from Kennesaw State)
First-team All-CUSA at Kennesaw State; known CUSA commodity; Phil Longo needed great haul after face-plant
Def Collapse · 46_to_135
Defense plummeted from 46th to 135th in SP+; 9 of 10 losses by 14+; 56-16 home loss to FIU in front of 4237
Longo Approach
Longo focused on pure athleticism over production; grabbed more young former P4 signees than anyone; 2nd transition year
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Kentucky | #86 | -5.3 | #73 | #101 | 32% | #133 |
| 2 | Liberty | #93 | -6.4 | #66 | #104 | 57% | #49 |
| 3 | Jacksonville State | #98 | -7.7 | #77 | #107 | 57% | #47 |
| 4 | Kennesaw State | #105 | -9.3 | #101 | #97 | 49% | #83 |
| 5 | Delaware | #114 | -13.0 | #96 | #126 | 62% | #25 |
| 6 | Florida International | #118 | -13.7 | #100 | #122 | 47% | #95 |
| 7 | New Mexico State | #123 | -16.4 | #118 | #113 | 51% | #73 |
| 8 | Missouri State | #126 | -18.7 | #122 | #121 | 34% | #128 |
| 9 | Middle Tennessee | #135 | -26.0 | #133 | #134 | 36% | #122 |
| 10 | Sam Houston | #136 | -26.3 | #131 | #135 | 49% | #80 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.