A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
San Diego State Aztecs enters 2026 rated 2nd in the Pac-12 (#71 nationally). The profile is an above average defense (#60) paired with a below average offense (#93). Schedule math puts the season at 6.7 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 7.1. 2 games project as clear underdog spots (UCLA, Boise State). The season turns on 3 close games: James Madison, Oregon State, Fresno State.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 9-4 | 6-2 | #43 | #90 | #28 | #5 |
Sean Lewis — year 3, 12-13 career.
OC: returning
DC: NEW (Rob Aurich left)
Lewis loved at Kent State; alarming 3-9 119th debut then arrested slide in Year 2; awesome defense hit by attrition
59% overall, ranked #34 nationally.
Offense 76% · Defense 43%
117 returning starts, 10 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-06 | vs Portland State | FCS | +26.2 | 96% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | @ UCLA | #46 / +5.1 | -8.9 | 25% | Upset needed |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-20 | vs James Madison | #77 / -2.1 | +3.3 | 60% | Swing |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | @ Toledo | #108 / -11.5 | +7.7 | 72% | Lean win |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-04 | vs Texas State | #89 / -5.9 | +7.1 | 71% | Lean win |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | @ Oregon State | #91 / -6.3 | +2.5 | 58% | Swing |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-18 | vs Fresno State | #78 / -2.3 | +3.5 | 61% | Swing |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-25 | @ Colorado State | #99 / -8.3 | +4.5 | 64% | Lean win |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | vs Washington State | #85 / -5.3 | +6.5 | 69% | Lean win |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-15 | vs Utah State | #97 / -7.7 | +8.9 | 75% | Lean win |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-22 | @ Boise State | #39 / +6.8 | -10.6 | 21% | Upset needed |
2.54
expected wins across 4 games
Portland State, UCLA, James Madison, Toledo
2.53
expected wins across 4 games
Texas State, Oregon State, Fresno State, Colorado State
1.66
expected wins across 3 games
Washington State, Utah State, Boise State
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Jayden Denegal
returning starter limited sample
Run-run-pass-punt offense; 1680 rush yds 14 TDs from RB duo returning; offense identity unlikely to change
Cameron Cooper (ILB, from Western Colorado (D2))
81 tackles 14 TFLs 5 sacks 5 PBUs at D2; sure tackling-machine for attrition-hit Aztecs defense
Def Rank Points · 5
Ranked 5th in both points allowed per drive and yards allowed per play
Slide Arrested · 119_to_43
2024: 3-9 119th SP+; 2025: 9-4 43rd SP+; arrested 3-year slide in win total and SP+
Continuity Oddity
9 of 13 offensive players return but only 6 of 17 defensive; bad offense stays great defense goes
| Date | Matchup | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Oct. 3 | Texas State at SDSU | Teams projected 2nd-5th pair off in opening weekend of conference play; tone-setters |
| Oct. 17 | Fresno State at SDSU | With Wazzu BSU and SDSU to start conference play we'll know everything about Fresno quickly |
| Oct. 31 | Wash. St. at SDSU | Two defense-oriented teams; which is better at scoring? Which maintained defensive form despite turnover? |
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boise State | #39 | +6.8 | #43 | #46 | 57% | #45 |
| 2 | San Diego State | #71 | -1.3 | #93 | #60 | 59% | #34 |
| 3 | Fresno State | #78 | -2.3 | #105 | #47 | 53% | #63 |
| 4 | Washington State | #85 | -5.3 | #110 | #61 | 42% | #109 |
| 5 | Texas State | #89 | -5.9 | #26 | #129 | 56% | #51 |
| 6 | Oregon State | #91 | -6.3 | #104 | #74 | 47% | #94 |
| 7 | Utah State | #97 | -7.7 | #87 | #100 | 48% | #89 |
| 8 | Colorado State | #99 | -8.3 | #113 | #78 | 46% | #99 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.