A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
San José State Spartans enters 2026 rated 8th in the Mountain West (#122 nationally). The profile is a poor defense (#114) paired with a poor offense (#114). Schedule math puts the season at 4.2 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 4.5. 7 games project as clear underdog spots (USC, Fresno State, Hawai'i, New Mexico, Air Force, UNLV, North Dakota State). The season turns on 4 close games: Eastern Michigan, Wyoming, UTEP, Nevada.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 3-9 | 2-6 | #118 | #108 | #116 | #118 |
Ken Niumatalolo — year 3, 10-15 career.
OC: Craig Stutzmann
DC: Bojay Filimoeatu (NEW)
Total 3rd-year reset; Stutzmann back as OC; Filimoeatu first-time DC; Eget played entire 2025 on torn ACL
24% overall, ranked #137 nationally.
Offense 24% · Defense 23%
39 returning starts, 9 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-08-29 | @ USC | #13 / +16.8 | -34.8 | 1% | Upset needed |
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-04 | @ Eastern Michigan | #121 / -15.0 | -3.0 | 41% | Lean loss |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs Cal Poly | FCS | +12.0 | 82% | Should win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-20 | vs Fresno State | #78 / -2.3 | -10.7 | 21% | Upset needed |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | @ Hawai'i | #84 / -3.9 | -14.1 | 15% | Upset needed |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | vs Wyoming | #106 / -9.6 | -3.4 | 40% | Lean loss |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | @ UTEP | #129 / -20.5 | +2.5 | 58% | Swing |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | @ Nevada | #112 / -12.2 | -5.8 | 33% | Lean loss |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | vs New Mexico | #68 / -0.5 | -12.5 | 17% | Upset needed |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | vs Northern Illinois | #125 / -18.2 | +5.2 | 66% | Lean win |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-15 | @ Air Force | #79 / -2.4 | -15.6 | 12% | Upset needed |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-22 | vs UNLV | #59 / +2.8 | -15.8 | 12% | Upset needed |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-27 | vs North Dakota State | #72 / -1.4 | -11.6 | 19% | Upset needed |
1.59
expected wins across 5 games
USC, Eastern Michigan, Cal Poly, Fresno State, Hawai'i
2.13
expected wins across 5 games
Wyoming, UTEP, Nevada, New Mexico, Northern Illinois
0.44
expected wins across 3 games
Air Force, UNLV, North Dakota State
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Luke Weaver vs Robert McDaniel
battle (Hawaii transfer vs redshirt freshman) limited sample
Weaver from Hawaii; McDaniel redshirt freshman; true freshman Daniel Rolovich (Nick's son) also in mix; Stutzmann spread and shred
Eget Acl · torn_ACL
Walker Eget played entire 2025 season with torn ACL; no RB saw 90 carries; center played all 5 OL positions
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNLV | #59 | +2.8 | #33 | #89 | 40% | #116 |
| 2 | New Mexico | #68 | -0.5 | #68 | #73 | 63% | #21 |
| 3 | North Dakota State | #72 | -1.4 | #82 | #67 | 52% | #65 |
| 4 | Air Force | #79 | -2.4 | #70 | #83 | 59% | #37 |
| 5 | Hawai'i | #84 | -3.9 | #69 | #93 | 45% | #101 |
| 6 | Wyoming | #106 | -9.6 | #124 | #58 | 40% | #118 |
| 7 | Nevada | #112 | -12.2 | #117 | #96 | 48% | #91 |
| 8 | San José State | #122 | -15.5 | #114 | #114 | 24% | #137 |
| 9 | Northern Illinois | #125 | -18.2 | #132 | #105 | 48% | #85 |
| 10 | UTEP | #129 | -20.5 | #129 | #119 | 35% | #126 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.