A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
SMU Mustangs enters 2026 rated 5th in the ACC (#28 nationally). The profile is a strong defense (#32) paired with a strong offense (#25). Schedule math puts the season at 8.3 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 8.0. 1 game project as clear underdog spots (Notre Dame). The season turns on 2 close games: Florida State, Louisville.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 9-4 | 6-2 | #23 | #23 | #25 | #102 |
Rhett Lashlee — year 5, 38-17 career.
OC: Rob Likens/Garin Justice/D'Eriq King (NEW co-OCs)
DC: Maurice Crum Jr./Rickey Hunley Jr. (NEW co-DCs)
Both coordinators left; Lashlee named everyone co-coordinator; unprecedented
62% overall, ranked #22 nationally.
Offense 66% · Defense 58%
128 returning starts, 10 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-07 | @ Florida State | #35 / +8.8 | -0.4 | 49% | Swing |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs UC Davis | FCS | +38.4 | 99% | Should win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | @ Louisville | #27 / +11.0 | -2.6 | 42% | Lean loss |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | vs Missouri State | #126 / -18.7 | +32.1 | 98% | Should win |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | vs Boston College | #74 / -1.5 | +14.9 | 87% | Should win |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | vs Virginia | #40 / +6.6 | +6.8 | 70% | Lean win |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | vs California | #56 / +3.7 | +9.7 | 77% | Lean win |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | @ Syracuse | #69 / -0.7 | +9.1 | 76% | Lean win |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | vs Virginia Tech | #32 / +9.4 | +4.0 | 62% | Lean win |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | vs Wake Forest | #58 / +3.6 | +9.8 | 77% | Lean win |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-22 | @ Notre Dame | #3 / +25.8 | -17.4 | 10% | Upset needed |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | @ Stanford | #75 / -1.9 | +10.3 | 78% | Lean win |
2.88
expected wins across 4 games
Florida State, UC Davis, Louisville, Missouri State
3.09
expected wins across 4 games
Boston College, Virginia, California, Syracuse
2.28
expected wins across 4 games
Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Notre Dame, Stanford
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Kevin Jennings
returning starter experienced
Third-year starter; QBR 76+ in 13 of 26 starts (12-1); under 50 QBR 7 times (3-4); maddening variance
Win Total 3Yr · 31
Won 31 games over past 3 years; seamless power conference transition
Transfer Usage Trend · 26_to_16
Portal usage dropped for 3 straight years (26 to 16 transfers)
Jennings Qbr High · 13
QBR of 76.0+ in 13 of 26 starts; SMU went 12-1 in those
Jennings Qbr Low · 7
QBR under 50.0 seven times; SMU went 3-4 in those
| Date | Matchup | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Sept. 19 | SMU at Louisville | Louisville's first Saturday game; establishes conference hierarchy early |
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Notre Dame | #3 | +25.8 | #3 | #9 | 72% | #1 |
| 2 | Miami | #8 | +21.0 | #12 | #7 | 49% | #78 |
| 3 | Clemson | #23 | +12.8 | #48 | #16 | 53% | #60 |
| 4 | Louisville | #27 | +11.0 | #36 | #26 | 53% | #59 |
| 5 | SMU | #28 | +10.9 | #25 | #32 | 62% | #22 |
| 6 | Virginia Tech | #32 | +9.4 | #34 | #38 | 69% | #4 |
| 7 | Florida State | #35 | +8.8 | #45 | #30 | 57% | #48 |
| 8 | Virginia | #40 | +6.6 | #63 | #27 | 59% | #36 |
| 9 | Pittsburgh | #41 | +6.5 | #40 | #53 | 58% | #41 |
| 10 | Georgia Tech | #43 | +6.0 | #53 | #51 | 49% | #79 |
| 11 | Duke | #44 | +5.7 | #19 | #81 | 49% | #77 |
| 12 | NC State | #48 | +4.9 | #35 | #64 | 54% | #58 |
| 13 | North Carolina | #54 | +3.8 | #80 | #35 | 44% | #103 |
| 14 | California | #56 | +3.7 | #50 | #62 | 58% | #43 |
| 15 | Wake Forest | #58 | +3.6 | #83 | #31 | 53% | #62 |
| 16 | Syracuse | #69 | -0.7 | #85 | #59 | 62% | #27 |
| 17 | Boston College | #74 | -1.5 | #67 | #80 | 50% | #74 |
| 18 | Stanford | #75 | -1.9 | #97 | #55 | 60% | #33 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.