A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
South Alabama Jaguars enters 2026 rated 10th in the Sun Belt (#116 nationally). The profile is a poor defense (#125) paired with a below average offense (#95). Schedule math puts the season at 5.4 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 5.3. 4 games project as clear underdog spots (Tulane, Kentucky, Arkansas State, Marshall). The season turns on 5 close games: Ohio, Louisiana Tech, Louisiana, Troy, App State.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 4-8 | 3-5 | #114 | #83 | #125 | #134 |
Major Applewhite — year 3, 11-14 career.
OC: returning
DC: returning
27 transfers left only 11 came in; Applewhite leaning on returnees and 9 jucos; admirable but risky approach
44% overall, ranked #105 nationally.
Offense 51% · Defense 37%
78 returning starts, 7 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | vs SE Louisiana | FCS | +14.2 | 86% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | @ Tulane | #87 / -5.5 | -10.3 | 22% | Upset needed |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | vs Ohio | #117 / -13.6 | +2.8 | 59% | Swing |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | @ Kentucky | #53 / +3.8 | -19.6 | 8% | Upset needed |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | vs UL Monroe | #132 / -24.3 | +13.5 | 84% | Should win |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-08 | @ Arkansas State | #101 / -8.5 | -7.3 | 29% | Upset needed |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-20 | @ Marshall | #92 / -6.4 | -9.4 | 24% | Upset needed |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | vs Louisiana Tech | #100 / -8.3 | -2.5 | 42% | Lean loss |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | @ Louisiana | #104 / -9.1 | -6.7 | 30% | Lean loss |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | vs Troy | #90 / -6.0 | -4.8 | 35% | Lean loss |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | @ Southern Miss | #131 / -23.3 | +7.5 | 72% | Lean win |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-27 | vs App State | #111 / -12.1 | +1.3 | 54% | Swing |
1.74
expected wins across 4 games
SE Louisiana, Tulane, Ohio, Kentucky
1.79
expected wins across 4 games
UL Monroe, Arkansas State, Marshall, Louisiana Tech
1.92
expected wins across 4 games
Louisiana, Troy, Southern Miss, App State
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Bishop Davenport
returning starter limited sample
More proven at QB than most Sun Belt peers; but RB Bullock and 3 of top 4 receivers gone
Turnover Exodus · 27
27 transfers left Mobile only 11 came in; Applewhite leaning on returnees and 9 jucos; risky in portal era
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Madison | #77 | -2.1 | #76 | #75 | 30% | #136 |
| 2 | Old Dominion | #88 | -5.8 | #109 | #63 | 40% | #114 |
| 3 | Troy | #90 | -6.0 | #90 | #94 | 39% | #119 |
| 4 | Marshall | #92 | -6.4 | #54 | #124 | 48% | #88 |
| 5 | Louisiana Tech | #100 | -8.3 | #98 | #99 | 56% | #53 |
| 6 | Arkansas State | #101 | -8.5 | #88 | #111 | 49% | #82 |
| 7 | Georgia Southern | #103 | -8.9 | #92 | #109 | 43% | #108 |
| 8 | Louisiana | #104 | -9.1 | #72 | #116 | 49% | #81 |
| 9 | App State | #111 | -12.1 | #102 | #115 | 34% | #127 |
| 10 | South Alabama | #116 | -13.3 | #95 | #125 | 44% | #105 |
| 11 | Coastal Carolina | #119 | -13.8 | #103 | #118 | 42% | #112 |
| 12 | Southern Miss | #131 | -23.3 | #123 | #133 | 22% | #138 |
| 13 | UL Monroe | #132 | -24.3 | #130 | #130 | 51% | #68 |
| 14 | Georgia State | #133 | -25.1 | #120 | #137 | 38% | #121 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.