A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
South Florida Bulls enters 2026 rated 5th in the American (#80 nationally). The profile is a below average defense (#98) paired with an above average offense (#59). Schedule math puts the season at 8.0 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 7.9. The season turns on 5 close games: Army, UTSA, East Carolina, Memphis, Florida Atlantic.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 9-4 | 6-2 | #30 | #12 | #62 | #89 |
Brian Hartline — year 1, N/A (new hire) career.
OC: Tim Beck (NEW)
DC: Josh Aldridge (NEW)
Hartline was OSU's best recruiter 9 years; 10 former blue-chippers 24 P4 transfers; Beck old friend hasn't run good offense in a while
41% overall, ranked #113 nationally.
Offense 47% · Defense 36%
41 returning starts, 14 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | vs Florida International | #118 / -13.7 | +13.4 | 84% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | @ Army | #83 / -3.0 | -2.3 | 43% | Lean loss |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | vs Delaware State | FCS | +24.7 | 96% | Should win |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | @ Bowling Green | #115 / -13.3 | +8.0 | 73% | Lean win |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | vs Temple | #102 / -8.7 | +8.4 | 74% | Lean win |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-08 | @ UTSA | #73 / -1.5 | -3.8 | 38% | Lean loss |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | vs Kent State | #128 / -20.1 | +19.8 | 92% | Should win |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | vs UAB | #124 / -18.1 | +17.8 | 90% | Should win |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | @ East Carolina | #76 / -2.0 | -3.3 | 40% | Lean loss |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-13 | vs Memphis | #70 / -1.1 | +0.8 | 52% | Swing |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | @ Florida Atlantic | #94 / -7.1 | +1.8 | 56% | Swing |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-27 | vs Tulane | #87 / -5.5 | +5.2 | 66% | Lean win |
2.96
expected wins across 4 games
Florida International, Army, Delaware State, Bowling Green
2.95
expected wins across 4 games
Temple, UTSA, Kent State, UAB
2.14
expected wins across 4 games
East Carolina, Memphis, Florida Atlantic, Tulane
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Michael Van Buren Jr.
transfer (Mississippi State/LSU) limited sample
Former blue-chipper; showed promise at Miss State; caught in LSU's disastrous offense; Hartline's first starting QB
Caleb Cook (OL, from Georgia Southern)
First-team All-Sun Belt guard; 6-3 320 lbs; anchors totally remodeled USF offensive line
Hartline Roster
Hartline brought 10 former blue-chippers and 24 P4 transfers; power-conference roster worth of size
| Date | Matchup | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Nov. 12 | Memphis at USF | Memphis is hinge team; if they held at home now must hold on road; determines who makes title game |
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Navy | #63 | +1.1 | #58 | #77 | 47% | #93 |
| 2 | Memphis | #70 | -1.1 | #56 | #95 | 42% | #111 |
| 3 | UTSA | #73 | -1.5 | #47 | #102 | 54% | #57 |
| 4 | East Carolina | #76 | -2.0 | #84 | #71 | 42% | #110 |
| 5 | South Florida | #80 | -2.8 | #59 | #98 | 41% | #113 |
| 6 | Army | #83 | -3.0 | #81 | #82 | 50% | #75 |
| 7 | Tulane | #87 | -5.5 | #99 | #86 | 40% | #117 |
| 8 | Florida Atlantic | #94 | -7.1 | #60 | #120 | 64% | #19 |
| 9 | Tulsa | #96 | -7.6 | #91 | #103 | 62% | #23 |
| 10 | Temple | #102 | -8.7 | #74 | #117 | 53% | #64 |
| 11 | UConn | #107 | -11.2 | #107 | #108 | 31% | #134 |
| 12 | North Texas | #109 | -11.8 | #89 | #123 | 32% | #132 |
| 13 | Rice | #120 | -14.7 | #119 | #110 | 39% | #120 |
| 14 | UAB | #124 | -18.1 | #108 | #132 | 35% | #125 |
| 15 | Charlotte | #138 | -32.4 | #137 | #138 | 43% | #107 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.