A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Syracuse Orange enters 2026 rated 16th in the ACC (#69 nationally). The profile is an above average defense (#59) paired with a below average offense (#85). Schedule math puts the season at 4.3 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 4.5. 8 games project as clear underdog spots (Pittsburgh, Virginia, Louisville, North Carolina, SMU, Clemson, NC State, Notre Dame). The season turns on 2 close games: California, Boston College.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 3-9 | 1-7 | #115 | #115 | #106 | #35 |
Fran Brown — year 3, 13-12 career.
OC: returning
DC: Vince Kehres (NEW)
Kehres from Toledo; defense ranked 21st in SP+ 2025; 3 straight years of 20+ spot regression on D
62% overall, ranked #27 nationally.
Offense 56% · Defense 67%
116 returning starts, 16 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | vs New Hampshire | FCS | +26.8 | 97% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs California | #56 / +3.7 | -1.9 | 44% | Lean loss |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-17 | @ Pittsburgh | #41 / +6.5 | -9.7 | 23% | Upset needed |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | @ UConn | #107 / -11.2 | +8.0 | 73% | Lean win |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | @ Virginia | #40 / +6.6 | -9.8 | 23% | Upset needed |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | vs Louisville | #27 / +11.0 | -9.2 | 24% | Upset needed |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | @ North Carolina | #54 / +3.8 | -7.0 | 29% | Upset needed |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | vs SMU | #28 / +10.9 | -9.1 | 24% | Upset needed |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | vs Clemson | #23 / +12.8 | -11.0 | 20% | Upset needed |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | @ NC State | #48 / +4.9 | -8.1 | 27% | Upset needed |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | @ Boston College | #74 / -1.5 | -1.7 | 45% | Lean loss |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | vs Notre Dame | #3 / +25.8 | -24.0 | 5% | Upset needed |
2.37
expected wins across 4 games
New Hampshire, California, Pittsburgh, UConn
1.00
expected wins across 4 games
Virginia, Louisville, North Carolina, SMU
0.96
expected wins across 4 games
Clemson, NC State, Boston College, Notre Dame
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Steve Angeli
returning (injured) limited sample
Solid in 4 starts before season-ending injury; offense bottomed out without him; 11.1 PPG after injury
Def Regression · 3
Regressed by at least 20 spots in defensive SP+ for 3 straight years
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Notre Dame | #3 | +25.8 | #3 | #9 | 72% | #1 |
| 2 | Miami | #8 | +21.0 | #12 | #7 | 49% | #78 |
| 3 | Clemson | #23 | +12.8 | #48 | #16 | 53% | #60 |
| 4 | Louisville | #27 | +11.0 | #36 | #26 | 53% | #59 |
| 5 | SMU | #28 | +10.9 | #25 | #32 | 62% | #22 |
| 6 | Virginia Tech | #32 | +9.4 | #34 | #38 | 69% | #4 |
| 7 | Florida State | #35 | +8.8 | #45 | #30 | 57% | #48 |
| 8 | Virginia | #40 | +6.6 | #63 | #27 | 59% | #36 |
| 9 | Pittsburgh | #41 | +6.5 | #40 | #53 | 58% | #41 |
| 10 | Georgia Tech | #43 | +6.0 | #53 | #51 | 49% | #79 |
| 11 | Duke | #44 | +5.7 | #19 | #81 | 49% | #77 |
| 12 | NC State | #48 | +4.9 | #35 | #64 | 54% | #58 |
| 13 | North Carolina | #54 | +3.8 | #80 | #35 | 44% | #103 |
| 14 | California | #56 | +3.7 | #50 | #62 | 58% | #43 |
| 15 | Wake Forest | #58 | +3.6 | #83 | #31 | 53% | #62 |
| 16 | Syracuse | #69 | -0.7 | #85 | #59 | 62% | #27 |
| 17 | Boston College | #74 | -1.5 | #67 | #80 | 50% | #74 |
| 18 | Stanford | #75 | -1.9 | #97 | #55 | 60% | #33 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.