A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
TCU Horned Frogs enters 2026 rated 6th in the Big 12 (#34 nationally). The profile is a strong defense (#40) paired with a strong offense (#31). Schedule math puts the season at 7.2 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 7.1. 1 game project as clear underdog spots (Texas Tech). The season turns on 5 close games: BYU, Baylor, Arizona, Kansas State, Utah.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 9-4 | 5-4 | #37 | #31 | #50 | #85 |
Sonny Dykes — year 5, 36-17 career.
OC: Gordon Sammis (NEW)
DC: Andy Avalos
Sammis from UConn; coordinated Huskies best offense in 22 years; only 1 INT all season
51% overall, ranked #69 nationally.
Offense 44% · Defense 58%
109 returning starts, 20 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-08-29 | vs North Carolina neutral | #54 / +3.8 | +5.3 | 66% | Lean win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-13 | vs Grambling | FCS | +36.6 | 99% | Should win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-20 | vs Arkansas State | #101 / -8.5 | +20.1 | 92% | Should win |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | @ UCF | #60 / +2.3 | +4.3 | 63% | Lean win |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | vs BYU | #18 / +15.5 | -3.9 | 38% | Lean loss |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | @ Baylor | #51 / +4.5 | +2.1 | 57% | Swing |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | vs West Virginia | #66 / +0.8 | +10.8 | 79% | Lean win |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | vs Kansas | #57 / +3.7 | +7.9 | 73% | Lean win |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | @ Arizona | #30 / +10.2 | -3.6 | 39% | Lean loss |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | vs Kansas State | #29 / +10.4 | +1.2 | 54% | Swing |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | vs Utah | #25 / +11.9 | -0.3 | 49% | Swing |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-27 | @ Texas Tech | #7 / +23.1 | -16.5 | 11% | Upset needed |
3.21
expected wins across 4 games
North Carolina, Grambling, Arkansas State, UCF
2.47
expected wins across 4 games
BYU, Baylor, West Virginia, Kansas
1.53
expected wins across 4 games
Arizona, Kansas State, Utah, Texas Tech
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Jaden Craig
transfer (Harvard) limited sample
5299 yds 48 TDs 10 INTs over 21 games at Harvard; 6-3 230 lbs; favorable early schedule
Record 2Yr · 18-8
Gone 9-4 each of past 2 seasons; 37th in SP+ last year
Run Def Rank · 19
19th in yds allowed per carry (no sacks) but 109th in yds per dropback
Third Down Def Rank · 131
131st in conversion rate allowed on 3rd-and-11+
| Date | Matchup | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Oct. 3 | BYU at TCU | TCU has won 9 games 2 straight years; new OC-QB combo could make Frogs wild cards in title hunt |
| Nov. 21 | Utah at TCU | Back-to-back road tests for Utah; combined with Arizona trip could make or break title hopes |
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas Tech | #7 | +23.1 | #8 | #11 | 65% | #12 |
| 2 | BYU | #18 | +15.5 | #16 | #20 | 64% | #18 |
| 3 | Utah | #25 | +11.9 | #18 | #34 | 55% | #54 |
| 4 | Kansas State | #29 | +10.4 | #17 | #49 | 58% | #38 |
| 5 | Arizona | #30 | +10.2 | #29 | #33 | 60% | #32 |
| 6 | TCU | #34 | +9.1 | #31 | #40 | 51% | #69 |
| 7 | Houston | #36 | +8.2 | #30 | #45 | 65% | #17 |
| 8 | Oklahoma State | #38 | +7.1 | #42 | #52 | 58% | #42 |
| 9 | Arizona State | #42 | +6.4 | #57 | #37 | 51% | #71 |
| 10 | Cincinnati | #50 | +4.5 | #46 | #65 | 57% | #50 |
| 11 | Baylor | #51 | +4.5 | #23 | #87 | 53% | #61 |
| 12 | Kansas | #57 | +3.7 | #51 | #70 | 58% | #39 |
| 13 | UCF | #60 | +2.3 | #79 | #41 | 61% | #29 |
| 14 | Iowa State | #64 | +1.0 | #94 | #42 | 45% | #102 |
| 15 | Colorado | #65 | +0.9 | #64 | #57 | 55% | #55 |
| 16 | West Virginia | #66 | +0.8 | #62 | #66 | 52% | #66 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.