A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Temple Owls enters 2026 rated 10th in the American (#102 nationally). The profile is a poor defense (#117) paired with a middling offense (#74). Schedule math puts the season at 6.0 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 5.8. 5 games project as clear underdog spots (Penn State, South Florida, East Carolina, Navy, Memphis). The season turns on 2 close games: Toledo, Army.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 5-7 | 3-5 | #88 | #68 | #109 | #38 |
K.C. Keeler — year 2, 5-7 career.
OC: Tyler Walker
DC: returning
Keeler coached in 9 FCS/D3 title games; led Sam Houston to 10-win FBS season; November collapse exposed depth issues
53% overall, ranked #64 nationally.
Offense 62% · Defense 43%
117 returning starts, 11 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | vs Rhode Island | FCS | +18.8 | 91% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs Penn State | #17 / +15.7 | -21.9 | 6% | Upset needed |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | @ Toledo | #108 / -11.5 | +0.3 | 51% | Swing |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-25 | vs Army | #83 / -3.0 | -3.2 | 40% | Lean loss |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | @ South Florida | #80 / -2.8 | -8.4 | 26% | Upset needed |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | vs UConn | #107 / -11.2 | +5.0 | 65% | Lean win |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | vs Charlotte | #138 / -32.4 | +26.2 | 96% | Should win |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | @ East Carolina | #76 / -2.0 | -9.2 | 24% | Upset needed |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | @ Navy | #63 / +1.1 | -12.3 | 18% | Upset needed |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | vs UAB | #124 / -18.1 | +11.9 | 82% | Should win |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-20 | vs Rice | #120 / -14.7 | +8.5 | 74% | Lean win |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-27 | @ Memphis | #70 / -1.1 | -10.1 | 22% | Upset needed |
1.88
expected wins across 4 games
Rhode Island, Penn State, Toledo, Army
2.12
expected wins across 4 games
South Florida, UConn, Charlotte, East Carolina
1.96
expected wins across 4 games
Navy, UAB, Rice, Memphis
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Jaxon Smollik vs Ajani Sheppard
battle (Penn State transfer vs Wazzu transfer) zero experience
Both well-touted recruits; combined for 46 snaps 23 pass yds career; strong run game to lean on
November Collapse · 0-4
First 8: 5-3 33.3 PPG +9.4 vs SP+; Last 4: 0-4 16.3 PPG -12.1 vs SP+; depth issues exposed
Def Rank Decline · 54.3_to_113.2
Avg defensive SP+ 54.3 in 2010s vs 113.2 in 2020s; massive decline
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Navy | #63 | +1.1 | #58 | #77 | 47% | #93 |
| 2 | Memphis | #70 | -1.1 | #56 | #95 | 42% | #111 |
| 3 | UTSA | #73 | -1.5 | #47 | #102 | 54% | #57 |
| 4 | East Carolina | #76 | -2.0 | #84 | #71 | 42% | #110 |
| 5 | South Florida | #80 | -2.8 | #59 | #98 | 41% | #113 |
| 6 | Army | #83 | -3.0 | #81 | #82 | 50% | #75 |
| 7 | Tulane | #87 | -5.5 | #99 | #86 | 40% | #117 |
| 8 | Florida Atlantic | #94 | -7.1 | #60 | #120 | 64% | #19 |
| 9 | Tulsa | #96 | -7.6 | #91 | #103 | 62% | #23 |
| 10 | Temple | #102 | -8.7 | #74 | #117 | 53% | #64 |
| 11 | UConn | #107 | -11.2 | #107 | #108 | 31% | #134 |
| 12 | North Texas | #109 | -11.8 | #89 | #123 | 32% | #132 |
| 13 | Rice | #120 | -14.7 | #119 | #110 | 39% | #120 |
| 14 | UAB | #124 | -18.1 | #108 | #132 | 35% | #125 |
| 15 | Charlotte | #138 | -32.4 | #137 | #138 | 43% | #107 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.