A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Texas Longhorns enters 2026 rated 2nd in the SEC (#6 nationally). The profile is an elite defense (#8) paired with an elite offense (#7). Schedule math puts the season at 8.8 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 8.6. The season turns on 3 close games: Ohio State, LSU, Texas A&M.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 10-3 | 6-2 | #17 | #30 | #18 | #31 |
Steve Sarkisian — year 6, 46-20 career.
OC: returning (Sark playcaller)
DC: Will Muschamp (NEW)
Fired Kwiatkowski despite top-18 def; Muschamp last top-10 def was 2014
68% overall, ranked #6 nationally.
Offense 73% · Defense 63%
130 returning starts, 14 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | vs Texas State | #89 / -5.9 | +32.1 | 98% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs Ohio State | #1 / +31.8 | -5.6 | 33% | Lean loss |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-20 | vs UTSA | #73 / -1.5 | +27.7 | 97% | Should win |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | @ Tennessee | #15 / +16.0 | +5.2 | 66% | Lean win |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | vs Oklahoma neutral | #12 / +17.2 | +6.5 | 69% | Lean win |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | vs Florida | #19 / +14.9 | +11.3 | 80% | Should win |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | vs Ole Miss | #16 / +15.9 | +10.3 | 78% | Lean win |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | vs Mississippi State | #52 / +3.9 | +22.3 | 94% | Should win |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | @ Missouri | #20 / +14.8 | +6.4 | 69% | Lean win |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | @ LSU | #10 / +20.2 | +1.0 | 53% | Swing |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | vs Arkansas | #47 / +5.0 | +21.2 | 93% | Should win |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | @ Texas A&M | #9 / +20.3 | +0.9 | 53% | Swing |
2.94
expected wins across 4 games
Texas State, Ohio State, UTSA, Tennessee
3.22
expected wins across 4 games
Oklahoma, Florida, Ole Miss, Mississippi State
2.68
expected wins across 4 games
Missouri, LSU, Arkansas, Texas A&M
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Arch Manning
returning starter experienced
Best QBR in nation from November onward; weakness is accuracy throwing on the run
Rasheem Biles (LB, from Pitt)
Tackles on 15.8% of snaps; 15 TFL / 4.5 sacks / 2 INT / 5 breakups; replaces Hill Jr. and Lefau
Raleek Brown (RB, from Arizona State)
Explosive and physical; 6.1 ypc (3.1 after contact); shores up inconsistent run game
Hollywood Smothers (RB, from NC State)
Absurdly physical; 4.4 ypc after contact; paired with Raleek Brown in portal haul
Cam Coleman (WR, from Auburn)
6-3 200lb former blue-chipper; highlight reel plays; 7.9% drop rate; high-upside Manning target
Off Sp Plus 2023 · 6
Historically elite pre-2025
Off Sp Plus 2025 · 30
Slipped significantly with Manning
Def Sp Plus 2024 · 2
Kwiatkowski's peak before firing
Def Sp Plus 2025 · 18
Slipped from 2nd prompting coordinator change
| Date | Matchup | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | Texas at LSU | Texas road gauntlet starts; 3 straight road games vs top-20 |
| 2026-11-27 | Texas at Texas A&M | Rivalry; Texas ended A&M unbeaten run in 2025 |
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgia | #4 | +25.5 | #5 | #5 | 68% | #9 |
| 2 | Texas | #6 | +23.7 | #7 | #8 | 68% | #6 |
| 3 | Texas A&M | #9 | +20.3 | #10 | #14 | 65% | #15 |
| 4 | LSU | #10 | +20.2 | #21 | #2 | 61% | #30 |
| 5 | Alabama | #11 | +18.2 | #32 | #4 | 48% | #90 |
| 6 | Oklahoma | #12 | +17.2 | #27 | #10 | 68% | #7 |
| 7 | Tennessee | #15 | +16.0 | #4 | #50 | 62% | #26 |
| 8 | Ole Miss | #16 | +15.9 | #11 | #25 | 61% | #28 |
| 9 | Florida | #19 | +14.9 | #39 | #12 | 66% | #11 |
| 10 | Missouri | #20 | +14.8 | #24 | #15 | 51% | #70 |
| 11 | South Carolina | #24 | +12.1 | #44 | #21 | 68% | #5 |
| 12 | Auburn | #26 | +11.2 | #55 | #18 | 57% | #46 |
| 13 | Vanderbilt | #31 | +10.0 | #15 | #56 | 44% | #106 |
| 14 | Arkansas | #47 | +5.0 | #13 | #91 | 55% | #56 |
| 15 | Mississippi State | #52 | +3.9 | #41 | #76 | 48% | #86 |
| 16 | Kentucky | #53 | +3.8 | #75 | #36 | 46% | #98 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.