A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Texas State Bobcats enters 2026 rated 5th in the Pac-12 (#89 nationally). The profile is a poor defense (#129) paired with a strong offense (#26). Schedule math puts the season at 5.3 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 5.8. 3 games project as clear underdog spots (Texas, San Diego State, Boise State). The season turns on 4 close games: UTSA, Oregon State, Fresno State, Washington State.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 7-6 | 3-5 | #65 | #15 | #117 | #61 |
G.J. Kinne — year 4, 23-16 career.
OC: returning
DC: returning
Back-to-back 8-5 seasons then 7-6 with 4 gut-wrenching losses; Kinne stayed despite P4 interest; Jackson and top targets return
56% overall, ranked #51 nationally.
Offense 70% · Defense 43%
108 returning starts, 21 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | @ Texas | #6 / +23.7 | -32.1 | 2% | Upset needed |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs UTSA | #73 / -1.5 | -1.9 | 44% | Lean loss |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-20 | vs North Texas | #109 / -11.8 | +8.4 | 74% | Lean win |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | vs Incarnate Word | FCS | +21.6 | 94% | Should win |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-04 | @ San Diego State | #71 / -1.3 | -7.1 | 29% | Upset needed |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-16 | vs Colorado State | #99 / -8.3 | +4.9 | 65% | Lean win |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | vs Utah State | #97 / -7.7 | +4.3 | 63% | Lean win |
| Wk 9 | 2026-11-01 | @ Boise State | #39 / +6.8 | -15.2 | 13% | Upset needed |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-08 | @ Oregon State | #91 / -6.3 | -2.1 | 43% | Lean loss |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | vs Fresno State | #78 / -2.3 | -1.1 | 47% | Swing |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | vs Washington State | #85 / -5.3 | +1.9 | 56% | Swing |
2.14
expected wins across 4 games
Texas, UTSA, North Texas, Incarnate Word
1.70
expected wins across 4 games
San Diego State, Colorado State, Utah State, Boise State
1.46
expected wins across 3 games
Oregon State, Fresno State, Washington State
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Brad Jackson
returning starter experienced
3224 pass yds 890 rush yds; 4th-best QBR of any G6 QB; best of any returnee; 2 favorite targets return
Phillip Bradford (DT, from McNeese)
15.5 TFLs 5.5 sacks at 6-6 308 lbs; combines size with productivity
Jackson Qbr · 4th_best
Brad Jackson: 3224 pass yds 890 rush yds; 4th-best QBR of any G6 QB and best of any returnee
Heartbreak Losses · 4
4 gut-wrenching losses in 5-game span; 2 TDs in 80 sec; 28-3 collapse; late scores; near-comeback
| Date | Matchup | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Oct. 3 | Texas State at SDSU | Teams projected 2nd-5th pair off in opening weekend of conference play; tone-setters |
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boise State | #39 | +6.8 | #43 | #46 | 57% | #45 |
| 2 | San Diego State | #71 | -1.3 | #93 | #60 | 59% | #34 |
| 3 | Fresno State | #78 | -2.3 | #105 | #47 | 53% | #63 |
| 4 | Washington State | #85 | -5.3 | #110 | #61 | 42% | #109 |
| 5 | Texas State | #89 | -5.9 | #26 | #129 | 56% | #51 |
| 6 | Oregon State | #91 | -6.3 | #104 | #74 | 47% | #94 |
| 7 | Utah State | #97 | -7.7 | #87 | #100 | 48% | #89 |
| 8 | Colorado State | #99 | -8.3 | #113 | #78 | 46% | #99 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.