A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Texas Tech Red Raiders is the highest-rated team in the Big 12 at #7 nationally. The profile is an elite defense (#11) paired with an elite offense (#8). Schedule math puts the season at 11.0 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 10.7.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 12-2 | 9-1 | #3 | #8 | #3 | #54 |
Joey McGuire — year 5, 35-18 career.
OC: Mack Leftwich
DC: returning
Leftwich must create magic without Sorsby; Will Hammond recovering ACL or Tulsa transfer Kirk Francis
65% overall, ranked #12 nationally.
Offense 67% · Defense 64%
155 returning starts, 12 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | vs Abilene Christian | FCS | +50.6 | 100% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | @ Oregon State | #91 / -6.3 | +26.9 | 97% | Should win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | vs Houston | #36 / +8.2 | +17.4 | 90% | Should win |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | vs Sam Houston | #136 / -26.3 | +51.9 | 100% | Should win |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | @ Colorado | #65 / +0.9 | +19.7 | 92% | Should win |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | vs Arizona State | #42 / +6.4 | +19.2 | 92% | Should win |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | @ Cincinnati | #50 / +4.5 | +16.1 | 88% | Should win |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | vs Arizona | #30 / +10.2 | +15.4 | 87% | Should win |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | vs West Virginia | #66 / +0.8 | +24.8 | 96% | Should win |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | @ Oklahoma State | #38 / +7.1 | +13.5 | 84% | Should win |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | @ Baylor | #51 / +4.5 | +16.1 | 88% | Should win |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-27 | vs TCU | #34 / +9.1 | +16.5 | 89% | Should win |
3.86
expected wins across 4 games
Abilene Christian, Oregon State, Houston, Sam Houston
3.59
expected wins across 4 games
Colorado, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Arizona
3.57
expected wins across 4 games
West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Baylor, TCU
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Kirk Francis or Will Hammond
battle (transfer vs returner from injury) limited sample
Francis: 3045 yds 18 TDs at Tulsa over 3 yrs; Hammond: nearly perfect vs Utah Sep 2025 then struggled vs ASU; recovering Oct ACL tear
Adam Trick (OLB, from Miami (Ohio))
14.5 TFLs 8.5 sacks 13 run stops; replaces David Bailey's 23 TFLs 14.5 sacks
Malcolm Simmons (WR, from Auburn)
18.3 yds per catch 2.1 yds per route; former blue-chipper; useful in return game too
Big12 Margin · 27.1
Outscored 10 Big 12 opponents by avg 27.1 PPG; 32.0 PPG from November onward
Tech Vs Byu Utah · 97-24
Won 3 games vs BYU and Utah by combined 97-24
Sorsby Status · departed
Sorsby left for NFL supplemental draft after gambling eligibility fight; returning prod will drop to 20s
Dickey Williams Yds · 1992
Cameron Dickey and J'Koby Williams combined for 1992 yds and 20 TDs
Pollock Int · 5
CB Brice Pollock picked off 5 passes; allowed 11.3 QBR
Rodriguez Tackle Pct · 16.6
LB Jacob Rodriguez made tackles on 16.6% of snaps (otherworldly)
Sos Rank · 71
Shockingly light schedule; don't play next 3 projected conf teams; nonconf no top-90 team
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas Tech | #7 | +23.1 | #8 | #11 | 65% | #12 |
| 2 | BYU | #18 | +15.5 | #16 | #20 | 64% | #18 |
| 3 | Utah | #25 | +11.9 | #18 | #34 | 55% | #54 |
| 4 | Kansas State | #29 | +10.4 | #17 | #49 | 58% | #38 |
| 5 | Arizona | #30 | +10.2 | #29 | #33 | 60% | #32 |
| 6 | TCU | #34 | +9.1 | #31 | #40 | 51% | #69 |
| 7 | Houston | #36 | +8.2 | #30 | #45 | 65% | #17 |
| 8 | Oklahoma State | #38 | +7.1 | #42 | #52 | 58% | #42 |
| 9 | Arizona State | #42 | +6.4 | #57 | #37 | 51% | #71 |
| 10 | Cincinnati | #50 | +4.5 | #46 | #65 | 57% | #50 |
| 11 | Baylor | #51 | +4.5 | #23 | #87 | 53% | #61 |
| 12 | Kansas | #57 | +3.7 | #51 | #70 | 58% | #39 |
| 13 | UCF | #60 | +2.3 | #79 | #41 | 61% | #29 |
| 14 | Iowa State | #64 | +1.0 | #94 | #42 | 45% | #102 |
| 15 | Colorado | #65 | +0.9 | #64 | #57 | 55% | #55 |
| 16 | West Virginia | #66 | +0.8 | #62 | #66 | 52% | #66 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.