A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Tulane Green Wave enters 2026 rated 7th in the American (#87 nationally). The profile is a below average defense (#86) paired with a below average offense (#99). Schedule math puts the season at 6.6 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 6.5. 2 games project as clear underdog spots (Duke, Kansas State). The season turns on 4 close games: Army, Memphis, UTSA, South Florida.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 11-3 | 8-1 | #45 | #35 | #71 | #14 |
Will Hall — year 1, N/A (new hire) career.
OC: NEW
DC: NEW
Hall hire called uninspiring; Tulane stunk for most of 20-year window; regression monster expected; only 6 starters return
40% overall, ranked #117 nationally.
Offense 28% · Defense 52%
78 returning starts, 13 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | @ Duke | #44 / +5.7 | -13.7 | 15% | Upset needed |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs South Alabama | #116 / -13.3 | +10.3 | 78% | Lean win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | @ Kansas State | #29 / +10.4 | -18.4 | 9% | Upset needed |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | vs Southern Miss | #131 / -23.3 | +20.3 | 93% | Should win |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | @ Army | #83 / -3.0 | -5.0 | 35% | Lean loss |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-16 | vs Memphis | #70 / -1.1 | -1.9 | 44% | Lean loss |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | vs UTSA | #73 / -1.5 | -1.5 | 45% | Swing |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-30 | @ Charlotte | #138 / -32.4 | +24.4 | 95% | Should win |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | vs Tulsa | #96 / -7.6 | +4.6 | 64% | Lean win |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | @ Rice | #120 / -14.7 | +6.7 | 70% | Lean win |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | vs North Texas | #109 / -11.8 | +8.8 | 75% | Lean win |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-27 | @ South Florida | #80 / -2.8 | -5.2 | 34% | Lean loss |
1.95
expected wins across 4 games
Duke, South Alabama, Kansas State, Southern Miss
2.20
expected wins across 4 games
Army, Memphis, UTSA, Charlotte
2.43
expected wins across 4 games
Tulsa, Rice, North Texas, South Florida
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Kadin Semonza vs Zeon Chriss-Gremillion
battle (returner vs Houston/Louisiana transfer) limited sample
Semonza junior returner; Chriss-Gremillion from Houston/Louisiana; capable QB should engineer points with strong skill corps
Regression Risk
SP+ adjustment for coaching changes; Tulane stunk for most of 20-year window; even 45th was above average; regression monster mean
One Score Record · 5-0
5-0 in one-score games in 2025; 3 losses by combined 88 points; overachieved vs SP+
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Navy | #63 | +1.1 | #58 | #77 | 47% | #93 |
| 2 | Memphis | #70 | -1.1 | #56 | #95 | 42% | #111 |
| 3 | UTSA | #73 | -1.5 | #47 | #102 | 54% | #57 |
| 4 | East Carolina | #76 | -2.0 | #84 | #71 | 42% | #110 |
| 5 | South Florida | #80 | -2.8 | #59 | #98 | 41% | #113 |
| 6 | Army | #83 | -3.0 | #81 | #82 | 50% | #75 |
| 7 | Tulane | #87 | -5.5 | #99 | #86 | 40% | #117 |
| 8 | Florida Atlantic | #94 | -7.1 | #60 | #120 | 64% | #19 |
| 9 | Tulsa | #96 | -7.6 | #91 | #103 | 62% | #23 |
| 10 | Temple | #102 | -8.7 | #74 | #117 | 53% | #64 |
| 11 | UConn | #107 | -11.2 | #107 | #108 | 31% | #134 |
| 12 | North Texas | #109 | -11.8 | #89 | #123 | 32% | #132 |
| 13 | Rice | #120 | -14.7 | #119 | #110 | 39% | #120 |
| 14 | UAB | #124 | -18.1 | #108 | #132 | 35% | #125 |
| 15 | Charlotte | #138 | -32.4 | #137 | #138 | 43% | #107 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.