A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane enters 2026 rated 9th in the American (#96 nationally). The profile is a below average defense (#103) paired with a below average offense (#91). Schedule math puts the season at 6.2 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 6.4. 4 games project as clear underdog spots (Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Navy, UTSA). The season turns on 3 close games: Army, Tulane, Florida Atlantic.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 4-8 | 1-7 | #104 | #105 | #107 | #23 |
Tre Lamb — year 2, 4-8 career.
OC: returning
DC: returning
Lamb from ETSU; up-tempo offense; got 2158 pass yds from freshman Hayes; beat OSU for first time since 1998
62% overall, ranked #23 nationally.
Offense 64% · Defense 60%
128 returning starts, 8 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | vs Oklahoma State | #38 / +7.1 | -12.2 | 18% | Upset needed |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | @ Sam Houston | #136 / -26.3 | +16.2 | 88% | Should win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-20 | vs East Texas A&M | FCS | +19.9 | 92% | Should win |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-27 | @ Arkansas | #47 / +5.0 | -15.1 | 13% | Upset needed |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-02 | vs North Texas | #109 / -11.8 | +6.7 | 70% | Lean win |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | @ Navy | #63 / +1.1 | -11.2 | 20% | Upset needed |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | @ Rice | #120 / -14.7 | +4.6 | 64% | Lean win |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | vs Army | #83 / -3.0 | -2.1 | 43% | Lean loss |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | @ Tulane | #87 / -5.5 | -4.6 | 36% | Lean loss |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | vs Florida Atlantic | #94 / -7.1 | +2.0 | 56% | Swing |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | vs Charlotte | #138 / -32.4 | +27.3 | 97% | Should win |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | @ UTSA | #73 / -1.5 | -8.6 | 25% | Upset needed |
2.12
expected wins across 4 games
Oklahoma State, Sam Houston, East Texas A&M, Arkansas
1.97
expected wins across 4 games
North Texas, Navy, Rice, Army
2.15
expected wins across 4 games
Tulane, Florida Atlantic, Charlotte, UTSA
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Baylor Hayes
returning starter limited sample
2158 pass yds as freshman; beat Oklahoma State first time since 1998; upset Oregon State and Army
Hayes Freshman Yds · 2158
Freshman Baylor Hayes threw for 2158 yds; beat Oklahoma State first time since 1998
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Navy | #63 | +1.1 | #58 | #77 | 47% | #93 |
| 2 | Memphis | #70 | -1.1 | #56 | #95 | 42% | #111 |
| 3 | UTSA | #73 | -1.5 | #47 | #102 | 54% | #57 |
| 4 | East Carolina | #76 | -2.0 | #84 | #71 | 42% | #110 |
| 5 | South Florida | #80 | -2.8 | #59 | #98 | 41% | #113 |
| 6 | Army | #83 | -3.0 | #81 | #82 | 50% | #75 |
| 7 | Tulane | #87 | -5.5 | #99 | #86 | 40% | #117 |
| 8 | Florida Atlantic | #94 | -7.1 | #60 | #120 | 64% | #19 |
| 9 | Tulsa | #96 | -7.6 | #91 | #103 | 62% | #23 |
| 10 | Temple | #102 | -8.7 | #74 | #117 | 53% | #64 |
| 11 | UConn | #107 | -11.2 | #107 | #108 | 31% | #134 |
| 12 | North Texas | #109 | -11.8 | #89 | #123 | 32% | #132 |
| 13 | Rice | #120 | -14.7 | #119 | #110 | 39% | #120 |
| 14 | UAB | #124 | -18.1 | #108 | #132 | 35% | #125 |
| 15 | Charlotte | #138 | -32.4 | #137 | #138 | 43% | #107 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.