A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
UAB Blazers enters 2026 rated 14th in the American (#124 nationally). The profile is a poor defense (#132) paired with a poor offense (#108). Schedule math puts the season at 3.6 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 4.1. 9 games project as clear underdog spots (Illinois, Louisiana, Navy, Memphis, East Carolina, South Florida, Temple, UTSA, North Texas).
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 4-8 | 2-6 | #125 | #80 | #132 | #121 |
Alex Mortensen — year 1 (first full), 2-4 career.
OC: NEW
DC: Todd Grantham (NEW)
Mortensen was Dilfer's OC promoted; Grantham veteran DC; 3 years 11 wins under Dilfer; program directionless; 39-man transfer class
35% overall, ranked #125 nationally.
Offense 32% · Defense 38%
41 returning starts, 7 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-04 | @ Illinois | #33 / +9.3 | -29.9 | 2% | Upset needed |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs UL Monroe | #132 / -24.3 | +8.7 | 75% | Lean win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-20 | @ Louisiana | #104 / -9.1 | -11.5 | 19% | Upset needed |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-25 | vs Navy | #63 / +1.1 | -16.7 | 11% | Upset needed |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | vs Samford | FCS | +9.4 | 76% | Lean win |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | @ Memphis | #70 / -1.1 | -19.5 | 8% | Upset needed |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-15 | vs East Carolina | #76 / -2.0 | -13.6 | 15% | Upset needed |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | @ South Florida | #80 / -2.8 | -17.8 | 10% | Upset needed |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | vs Charlotte | #138 / -32.4 | +16.8 | 89% | Should win |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | @ Temple | #102 / -8.7 | -11.9 | 18% | Upset needed |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | vs UTSA | #73 / -1.5 | -14.1 | 15% | Upset needed |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | @ North Texas | #109 / -11.8 | -8.8 | 25% | Upset needed |
1.07
expected wins across 4 games
Illinois, UL Monroe, Louisiana, Navy
1.10
expected wins across 4 games
Samford, Memphis, East Carolina, South Florida
1.47
expected wins across 4 games
Charlotte, Temple, UTSA, North Texas
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Ryder Burton
returning (was backup) limited sample
Promising moments as backup; Mortensen's system; skill corps awfully new
Dilfer Record · 11
11 wins in 3 years under Dilfer; program directionless; bottom 10 in defensive SP+
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Navy | #63 | +1.1 | #58 | #77 | 47% | #93 |
| 2 | Memphis | #70 | -1.1 | #56 | #95 | 42% | #111 |
| 3 | UTSA | #73 | -1.5 | #47 | #102 | 54% | #57 |
| 4 | East Carolina | #76 | -2.0 | #84 | #71 | 42% | #110 |
| 5 | South Florida | #80 | -2.8 | #59 | #98 | 41% | #113 |
| 6 | Army | #83 | -3.0 | #81 | #82 | 50% | #75 |
| 7 | Tulane | #87 | -5.5 | #99 | #86 | 40% | #117 |
| 8 | Florida Atlantic | #94 | -7.1 | #60 | #120 | 64% | #19 |
| 9 | Tulsa | #96 | -7.6 | #91 | #103 | 62% | #23 |
| 10 | Temple | #102 | -8.7 | #74 | #117 | 53% | #64 |
| 11 | UConn | #107 | -11.2 | #107 | #108 | 31% | #134 |
| 12 | North Texas | #109 | -11.8 | #89 | #123 | 32% | #132 |
| 13 | Rice | #120 | -14.7 | #119 | #110 | 39% | #120 |
| 14 | UAB | #124 | -18.1 | #108 | #132 | 35% | #125 |
| 15 | Charlotte | #138 | -32.4 | #137 | #138 | 43% | #107 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.