A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
UCLA Bruins enters 2026 rated 12th in the Big Ten (#46 nationally). The profile is an above average defense (#54) paired with an above average offense (#52). Schedule math puts the season at 6.1 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 5.4. 3 games project as clear underdog spots (Oregon, Michigan, USC). The season turns on 4 close games: California, Maryland, Minnesota, Illinois.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 3-9 | 3-6 | #98 | #106 | #94 | #71 |
Bob Chesney — year 1, N/A (new hire) career.
OC: NEW
DC: NEW
Chesney from JMU; brought JMU Dukes with him; 132 career wins at G5/FCS/D3 levels; CFP berth at JMU
67% overall, ranked #10 nationally.
Offense 73% · Defense 61%
105 returning starts, 17 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-06 | @ California | #56 / +3.7 | -1.1 | 47% | Swing |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs San Diego State | #71 / -1.3 | +8.9 | 75% | Lean win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-20 | vs Purdue | #82 / -2.9 | +10.5 | 79% | Lean win |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | @ Maryland | #55 / +3.8 | -1.2 | 46% | Swing |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | @ Oregon | #2 / +28.3 | -25.7 | 4% | Upset needed |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | vs Wisconsin | #61 / +1.8 | +5.8 | 67% | Lean win |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | vs Michigan State | #67 / +0.4 | +7.2 | 71% | Lean win |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | vs Nevada | #112 / -12.2 | +19.8 | 92% | Should win |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | @ Minnesota | #45 / +5.2 | -2.6 | 42% | Lean loss |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | vs Illinois | #33 / +9.3 | -1.7 | 45% | Lean loss |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | @ Michigan | #14 / +16.1 | -13.5 | 16% | Upset needed |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | vs USC | #13 / +16.8 | -9.2 | 24% | Upset needed |
2.47
expected wins across 4 games
California, San Diego State, Purdue, Maryland
2.35
expected wins across 4 games
Oregon, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Nevada
1.26
expected wins across 4 games
Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan, USC
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Nico Iamaleava
returning starter experienced
Held on to up-and-down QB; soon-to-be star guard Brooks returns; Chesney system from JMU
Wayne Knight (RB, from James Madison)
1770 scrimmage yds / 10 TDs; followed Chesney from JMU
Sahir West (DE, from James Madison)
7 sacks / 16 TFL; 5-TFL 3-sack Sun Belt title game
2025 Collapse · 3-9
0-4 start then 3-win streak then 5 straight losses by 42-12 avg; 98th in SP+ worst since 1963
Chesney Career Wins · 132
132 career wins at G5/FCS/D3 levels; brought JMU to CFP in 4th FBS season
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State | #1 | +31.8 | #2 | #1 | 60% | #31 |
| 2 | Oregon | #2 | +28.3 | #1 | #3 | 66% | #12 |
| 3 | Indiana | #5 | +24.5 | #9 | #6 | 56% | #52 |
| 4 | USC | #13 | +16.8 | #6 | #29 | 65% | #14 |
| 5 | Michigan | #14 | +16.1 | #20 | #13 | 63% | #20 |
| 6 | Penn State | #17 | +15.7 | #14 | #23 | 52% | #67 |
| 7 | Washington | #21 | +14.5 | #22 | #19 | 65% | #16 |
| 8 | Iowa | #22 | +13.6 | #38 | #17 | 44% | #104 |
| 9 | Illinois | #33 | +9.3 | #28 | #44 | 50% | #76 |
| 10 | Nebraska | #37 | +7.7 | #49 | #39 | 69% | #3 |
| 11 | Minnesota | #45 | +5.2 | #71 | #24 | 68% | #8 |
| 12 | UCLA | #46 | +5.1 | #52 | #54 | 67% | #10 |
| 13 | Northwestern | #49 | +4.6 | #78 | #28 | 57% | #44 |
| 14 | Maryland | #55 | +3.8 | #65 | #43 | 71% | #2 |
| 15 | Wisconsin | #61 | +1.8 | #106 | #22 | 59% | #35 |
| 16 | Rutgers | #62 | +1.8 | #37 | #90 | 47% | #92 |
| 17 | Michigan State | #67 | +0.4 | #61 | #69 | 46% | #97 |
| 18 | Purdue | #82 | -2.9 | #86 | #79 | 58% | #40 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.