A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
UL Monroe Warhawks enters 2026 rated 13th in the Sun Belt (#132 nationally). The profile is a poor defense (#130) paired with a poor offense (#130). Schedule math puts the season at 2.5 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 2.6. 10 games project as clear underdog spots (Mississippi State, UAB, Florida Atlantic, South Alabama, Louisiana Tech, Troy, Arkansas State, Louisiana, App State, Marshall). The season turns on 2 close games: SE Louisiana, Southern Miss.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 3-9 | 1-7 | #131 | #127 | #123 | #136 |
Bryant Vincent — year 3, 8-16 career.
OC: returning
DC: returning
Vincent 8-16 in 2 seasons; Hardy jumped to Missouri; gravity is ruthless in Monroe; lost 8 straight after 3-1 start
51% overall, ranked #68 nationally.
Offense 63% · Defense 40%
95 returning starts, 4 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | @ Mississippi State | #52 / +3.9 | -30.7 | 2% | Upset needed |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | @ UAB | #124 / -18.1 | -8.7 | 25% | Upset needed |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | vs SE Louisiana | FCS | +3.2 | 60% | Swing |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | vs Florida Atlantic | #94 / -7.1 | -14.7 | 14% | Upset needed |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | @ South Alabama | #116 / -13.3 | -13.5 | 16% | Upset needed |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | vs Louisiana Tech | #100 / -8.3 | -13.5 | 16% | Upset needed |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | @ Troy | #90 / -6.0 | -20.8 | 7% | Upset needed |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | vs Southern Miss | #131 / -23.3 | +1.5 | 55% | Swing |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | @ Arkansas State | #101 / -8.5 | -18.3 | 9% | Upset needed |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-13 | vs Louisiana | #104 / -9.1 | -12.7 | 17% | Upset needed |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | @ App State | #111 / -12.1 | -14.7 | 14% | Upset needed |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | vs Marshall | #92 / -6.4 | -15.4 | 13% | Upset needed |
1.01
expected wins across 4 games
Mississippi State, UAB, SE Louisiana, Florida Atlantic
0.93
expected wins across 4 games
South Alabama, Louisiana Tech, Troy, Southern Miss
0.53
expected wins across 4 games
Arkansas State, Louisiana, App State, Marshall
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Aidan Armenta
returning starter limited sample
Returning with 3 of top 4 targets; RB corps completely wiped out again; Chaney Jr and Roland brought in
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Madison | #77 | -2.1 | #76 | #75 | 30% | #136 |
| 2 | Old Dominion | #88 | -5.8 | #109 | #63 | 40% | #114 |
| 3 | Troy | #90 | -6.0 | #90 | #94 | 39% | #119 |
| 4 | Marshall | #92 | -6.4 | #54 | #124 | 48% | #88 |
| 5 | Louisiana Tech | #100 | -8.3 | #98 | #99 | 56% | #53 |
| 6 | Arkansas State | #101 | -8.5 | #88 | #111 | 49% | #82 |
| 7 | Georgia Southern | #103 | -8.9 | #92 | #109 | 43% | #108 |
| 8 | Louisiana | #104 | -9.1 | #72 | #116 | 49% | #81 |
| 9 | App State | #111 | -12.1 | #102 | #115 | 34% | #127 |
| 10 | South Alabama | #116 | -13.3 | #95 | #125 | 44% | #105 |
| 11 | Coastal Carolina | #119 | -13.8 | #103 | #118 | 42% | #112 |
| 12 | Southern Miss | #131 | -23.3 | #123 | #133 | 22% | #138 |
| 13 | UL Monroe | #132 | -24.3 | #130 | #130 | 51% | #68 |
| 14 | Georgia State | #133 | -25.1 | #120 | #137 | 38% | #121 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.