A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
USC Trojans enters 2026 rated 4th in the Big Ten (#13 nationally). The profile is a strong defense (#29) paired with an elite offense (#6). Schedule math puts the season at 7.9 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 7.8. 3 games project as clear underdog spots (Oregon, Ohio State, Indiana). The season turns on 1 close game: Penn State.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 9-4 | 7-2 | #16 | #9 | #36 | #98 |
Lincoln Riley — year 5, 36-17 career.
OC: returning
DC: Gary Patterson (NEW)
66-year-old Patterson hasn't run top-20 defense since 2014; 4-2-5 once revolutionary now ubiquitous; huge gamble by Riley
65% overall, ranked #14 nationally.
Offense 67% · Defense 64%
156 returning starts, 10 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-08-29 | vs San José State | #122 / -15.5 | +34.8 | 99% | Should win |
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | vs Fresno State | #78 / -2.3 | +21.6 | 94% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-13 | vs Louisiana | #104 / -9.1 | +28.4 | 97% | Should win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | @ Rutgers | #62 / +1.8 | +12.5 | 83% | Should win |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | vs Oregon | #2 / +28.3 | -9.0 | 25% | Upset needed |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | vs Washington | #21 / +14.5 | +4.8 | 65% | Lean win |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | @ Penn State | #17 / +15.7 | -1.4 | 46% | Swing |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | @ Wisconsin | #61 / +1.8 | +12.5 | 83% | Should win |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | vs Ohio State | #1 / +31.8 | -12.5 | 17% | Upset needed |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | @ Indiana | #5 / +24.5 | -10.2 | 22% | Upset needed |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | vs Maryland | #55 / +3.8 | +15.5 | 87% | Should win |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | @ UCLA | #46 / +5.1 | +9.2 | 76% | Lean win |
3.72
expected wins across 4 games
San José State, Fresno State, Louisiana, Rutgers
2.17
expected wins across 4 games
Oregon, Washington, Penn State, Wisconsin
2.02
expected wins across 4 games
Ohio State, Indiana, Maryland, UCLA
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Jayden Maiava
returning starter experienced
3711 yds 24 TDs; highest Total QBR of any returning Big Ten starter; virtually unsackable; timed scrambles perfectly
Maiava Qbr · highest_returning
Highest Total QBR of any returning Big Ten starter; 3711 yds 24 TDs
Patterson History
66 years old; hasn't run top-20 defense (SP+) since 2014; 4-2-5 now ubiquitous
| Date | Matchup | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Oct. 10 | USC at Penn State | Elimination game; PSU could announce dark horse status; USC off Oregon and Washington home games |
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State | #1 | +31.8 | #2 | #1 | 60% | #31 |
| 2 | Oregon | #2 | +28.3 | #1 | #3 | 66% | #12 |
| 3 | Indiana | #5 | +24.5 | #9 | #6 | 56% | #52 |
| 4 | USC | #13 | +16.8 | #6 | #29 | 65% | #14 |
| 5 | Michigan | #14 | +16.1 | #20 | #13 | 63% | #20 |
| 6 | Penn State | #17 | +15.7 | #14 | #23 | 52% | #67 |
| 7 | Washington | #21 | +14.5 | #22 | #19 | 65% | #16 |
| 8 | Iowa | #22 | +13.6 | #38 | #17 | 44% | #104 |
| 9 | Illinois | #33 | +9.3 | #28 | #44 | 50% | #76 |
| 10 | Nebraska | #37 | +7.7 | #49 | #39 | 69% | #3 |
| 11 | Minnesota | #45 | +5.2 | #71 | #24 | 68% | #8 |
| 12 | UCLA | #46 | +5.1 | #52 | #54 | 67% | #10 |
| 13 | Northwestern | #49 | +4.6 | #78 | #28 | 57% | #44 |
| 14 | Maryland | #55 | +3.8 | #65 | #43 | 71% | #2 |
| 15 | Wisconsin | #61 | +1.8 | #106 | #22 | 59% | #35 |
| 16 | Rutgers | #62 | +1.8 | #37 | #90 | 47% | #92 |
| 17 | Michigan State | #67 | +0.4 | #61 | #69 | 46% | #97 |
| 18 | Purdue | #82 | -2.9 | #86 | #79 | 58% | #40 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.