A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Utah State Aggies enters 2026 rated 7th in the Pac-12 (#97 nationally). The profile is a below average defense (#100) paired with a below average offense (#87). Schedule math puts the season at 4.2 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 4.5. 4 games project as clear underdog spots (Washington, Utah, Boise State, San Diego State). The season turns on 6 close games: Troy, Washington State, Texas State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Oregon State.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 6-7 | 4-4 | #79 | #53 | #98 | #115 |
Bronco Mendenhall — year 2, 6-7 career.
OC: Robert Anae (NEW/reunion)
DC: NEW
Anae reunites with Mendenhall from Virginia; Mendenhall engineered improvement at New Mexico and Utah State despite terrible continuity
48% overall, ranked #89 nationally.
Offense 40% · Defense 55%
124 returning starts, 9 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | vs Idaho State | FCS | +19.8 | 92% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | @ Washington | #21 / +14.5 | -24.7 | 4% | Upset needed |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | @ Utah | #25 / +11.9 | -22.1 | 6% | Upset needed |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | vs Troy | #90 / -6.0 | +0.8 | 52% | Swing |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | @ Boise State | #39 / +6.8 | -17.0 | 11% | Upset needed |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | vs Washington State | #85 / -5.3 | +0.1 | 50% | Swing |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | @ Texas State | #89 / -5.9 | -4.3 | 37% | Lean loss |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | vs Colorado State | #99 / -8.3 | +3.1 | 60% | Swing |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-08 | vs Fresno State | #78 / -2.3 | -2.9 | 41% | Lean loss |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-15 | @ San Diego State | #71 / -1.3 | -8.9 | 25% | Upset needed |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-22 | @ Oregon State | #91 / -6.3 | -3.9 | 38% | Lean loss |
1.55
expected wins across 4 games
Idaho State, Washington, Utah, Troy
1.57
expected wins across 4 games
Boise State, Washington State, Texas State, Colorado State
1.04
expected wins across 3 games
Fresno State, San Diego State, Oregon State
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
McCae Hillstead
returning (was away) limited sample
Decent in 4 starts as true freshman in 2023; back after stint at BYU; Anae offense; decent QB could mean significant overachievement
Continuity Rank · 89
89th in returning production; by Mendenhall standards that's spectacular (was 124th at UNM 133rd at USU)
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boise State | #39 | +6.8 | #43 | #46 | 57% | #45 |
| 2 | San Diego State | #71 | -1.3 | #93 | #60 | 59% | #34 |
| 3 | Fresno State | #78 | -2.3 | #105 | #47 | 53% | #63 |
| 4 | Washington State | #85 | -5.3 | #110 | #61 | 42% | #109 |
| 5 | Texas State | #89 | -5.9 | #26 | #129 | 56% | #51 |
| 6 | Oregon State | #91 | -6.3 | #104 | #74 | 47% | #94 |
| 7 | Utah State | #97 | -7.7 | #87 | #100 | 48% | #89 |
| 8 | Colorado State | #99 | -8.3 | #113 | #78 | 46% | #99 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.