A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
UTEP Miners enters 2026 rated 10th in the Mountain West (#129 nationally). The profile is a poor defense (#119) paired with a poor offense (#129). Schedule math puts the season at 2.6 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 3.0. 8 games project as clear underdog spots (Oklahoma, Michigan, Oregon State, New Mexico, North Dakota State, Hawai'i, Wyoming, Air Force). The season turns on 3 close games: Nevada, San José State, Northern Illinois.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
Scotty Walden — year 3, 5-19 career.
OC: returning
DC: Kyle Beyer (NEW 4th in 4 years)
4th DC in 4 years; 2 winning seasons in 20 years; bailing sand analogy; 0-3 in one-score finishes
35% overall, ranked #126 nationally.
Offense 27% · Defense 43%
69 returning starts, 22 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | @ Oklahoma | #12 / +17.2 | -40.2 | 1% | Upset needed |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-13 | vs Texas Southern | FCS | +7.0 | 71% | Lean win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | @ Michigan | #14 / +16.1 | -39.1 | 1% | Upset needed |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-27 | vs Oregon State | #91 / -6.3 | -11.7 | 19% | Upset needed |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | @ New Mexico | #68 / -0.5 | -22.5 | 6% | Upset needed |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | vs Nevada | #112 / -12.2 | -5.8 | 33% | Lean loss |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | vs San José State | #122 / -15.5 | -2.5 | 42% | Lean loss |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | @ North Dakota State | #72 / -1.4 | -21.6 | 6% | Upset needed |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | vs Hawai'i | #84 / -3.9 | -14.1 | 15% | Upset needed |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | vs Wyoming | #106 / -9.6 | -8.4 | 26% | Upset needed |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | @ Air Force | #79 / -2.4 | -20.6 | 7% | Upset needed |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | @ Northern Illinois | #125 / -18.2 | -4.8 | 35% | Lean loss |
0.91
expected wins across 4 games
Oklahoma, Texas Southern, Michigan, Oregon State
0.87
expected wins across 4 games
New Mexico, Nevada, San José State, North Dakota State
0.83
expected wins across 4 games
Hawai'i, Wyoming, Air Force, Northern Illinois
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
EJ Colson
transfer (Incarnate Word) limited sample
2142 pass yds in proven FCS system; offensive upside but defense continues to regress; 4th DC in 4 years
Brady Braun (P, from Gardner-Webb)
48.1 yds per punt; 13 punts 50+ with 8 inside 20 and ZERO touchbacks; perfect for 5.2 punts/game team
Winning Seasons · 2
Only 2 winning seasons in 20 years; 0-3 in one-score finishes; 4th DC in 4 years; bailing sand with hands
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNLV | #59 | +2.8 | #33 | #89 | 40% | #116 |
| 2 | New Mexico | #68 | -0.5 | #68 | #73 | 63% | #21 |
| 3 | North Dakota State | #72 | -1.4 | #82 | #67 | 52% | #65 |
| 4 | Air Force | #79 | -2.4 | #70 | #83 | 59% | #37 |
| 5 | Hawai'i | #84 | -3.9 | #69 | #93 | 45% | #101 |
| 6 | Wyoming | #106 | -9.6 | #124 | #58 | 40% | #118 |
| 7 | Nevada | #112 | -12.2 | #117 | #96 | 48% | #91 |
| 8 | San José State | #122 | -15.5 | #114 | #114 | 24% | #137 |
| 9 | Northern Illinois | #125 | -18.2 | #132 | #105 | 48% | #85 |
| 10 | UTEP | #129 | -20.5 | #129 | #119 | 35% | #126 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.