A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
UTSA Roadrunners enters 2026 rated 3rd in the American (#73 nationally). The profile is a below average defense (#102) paired with an above average offense (#47). Schedule math puts the season at 7.8 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 7.5. 1 game project as clear underdog spots (Texas). The season turns on 5 close games: Texas State, South Florida, Navy, Tulane, Florida Atlantic.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 7-6 | 4-4 | #62 | #28 | #92 | #59 |
Jeff Traylor — year 7, 53-26 career.
OC: returning
DC: Jess Loepp
Loepp seeks havoc and turnovers; OK with giving up big plays to get ball back; defense outside top 80 in 4 of 5 years
54% overall, ranked #57 nationally.
Offense 64% · Defense 44%
116 returning starts, 8 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | vs UT Rio Grande Valley | FCS | +26.0 | 96% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | @ Texas State | #89 / -5.9 | +1.9 | 56% | Swing |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-20 | @ Texas | #6 / +23.7 | -27.7 | 3% | Upset needed |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | vs Colorado State | #99 / -8.3 | +9.3 | 76% | Lean win |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | @ Rice | #120 / -14.7 | +10.7 | 79% | Lean win |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-08 | vs South Florida | #80 / -2.8 | +3.8 | 62% | Swing |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | vs Navy | #63 / +1.1 | -0.1 | 50% | Swing |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | @ Tulane | #87 / -5.5 | +1.5 | 55% | Swing |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-06 | @ Florida Atlantic | #94 / -7.1 | +3.1 | 60% | Swing |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | vs North Texas | #109 / -11.8 | +12.8 | 83% | Should win |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | @ UAB | #124 / -18.1 | +14.1 | 85% | Should win |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | vs Tulsa | #96 / -7.6 | +8.6 | 75% | Lean win |
2.31
expected wins across 4 games
UT Rio Grande Valley, Texas State, Texas, Colorado State
2.45
expected wins across 4 games
Rice, South Florida, Navy, Tulane
3.03
expected wins across 4 games
Florida Atlantic, North Texas, UAB, Tulsa
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Owen McCown
returning starter experienced
Inconsistent with duds but incredible peaks; 618 yds 9 TDs vs Tulane/ECU combined; QBR over 95.0 in those games
Off Sp Plus Avg · 31.8
Average offensive SP+ ranking of 31.8 over 5 seasons; model of stability; 23-5 in last 2 CUSA seasons
One Score Record · 2-6
2-6 in one-score finishes in 2024-25; if close-game fortunes reverse could contend
Home Overachieve · 15.4
Overachieved SP+ projections by 15.4 PPG at home; underachieved by 12.3 on road; Alamo Dome advantage
| Date | Matchup | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Oct. 17 | Navy at UTSA | First-ever Navy-UTSA game; UTSA overachieves by 15.4 PPG at home; could hitch Navy's title plans |
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Navy | #63 | +1.1 | #58 | #77 | 47% | #93 |
| 2 | Memphis | #70 | -1.1 | #56 | #95 | 42% | #111 |
| 3 | UTSA | #73 | -1.5 | #47 | #102 | 54% | #57 |
| 4 | East Carolina | #76 | -2.0 | #84 | #71 | 42% | #110 |
| 5 | South Florida | #80 | -2.8 | #59 | #98 | 41% | #113 |
| 6 | Army | #83 | -3.0 | #81 | #82 | 50% | #75 |
| 7 | Tulane | #87 | -5.5 | #99 | #86 | 40% | #117 |
| 8 | Florida Atlantic | #94 | -7.1 | #60 | #120 | 64% | #19 |
| 9 | Tulsa | #96 | -7.6 | #91 | #103 | 62% | #23 |
| 10 | Temple | #102 | -8.7 | #74 | #117 | 53% | #64 |
| 11 | UConn | #107 | -11.2 | #107 | #108 | 31% | #134 |
| 12 | North Texas | #109 | -11.8 | #89 | #123 | 32% | #132 |
| 13 | Rice | #120 | -14.7 | #119 | #110 | 39% | #120 |
| 14 | UAB | #124 | -18.1 | #108 | #132 | 35% | #125 |
| 15 | Charlotte | #138 | -32.4 | #137 | #138 | 43% | #107 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.