A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Western Michigan Broncos enters 2026 rated 2nd in the MAC (#95 nationally). The profile is a middling defense (#68) paired with a poor offense (#112). Schedule math puts the season at 7.1 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 6.8. 2 games project as clear underdog spots (Michigan, Boise State). The season turns on 4 close games: Buffalo, Central Michigan, Toledo, Miami (OH).
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 10-4 | 8-1 | #78 | #107 | #42 | #104 |
Lance Taylor — year 4, 20-19 career.
OC: Greer Martini (promoted)
DC: NEW (O'Leary left for Chargers)
DC O'Leary and DE Tucker both gone to Chargers; all 9 front 6 with 200+ snaps gone; Martini was LBs coach
51% overall, ranked #72 nationally.
Offense 60% · Defense 42%
130 returning starts, 13 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | @ Michigan | #14 / +16.1 | -25.8 | 4% | Upset needed |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs Monmouth | FCS | +20.3 | 93% | Should win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | @ Rice | #120 / -14.7 | +5.0 | 65% | Lean win |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | vs Boise State | #39 / +6.8 | -11.5 | 19% | Upset needed |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | @ Buffalo | #110 / -11.9 | +2.2 | 57% | Swing |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | vs Kent State | #128 / -20.1 | +15.4 | 87% | Should win |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | @ Central Michigan | #113 / -12.4 | +2.7 | 58% | Swing |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | @ Toledo | #108 / -11.5 | +1.8 | 56% | Swing |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | vs Bowling Green | #115 / -13.3 | +8.6 | 75% | Lean win |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-10 | @ Akron | #127 / -19.5 | +9.8 | 77% | Lean win |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-17 | vs Eastern Michigan | #121 / -15.0 | +10.3 | 78% | Lean win |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-24 | vs Miami (OH) | #81 / -2.9 | -1.8 | 44% | Lean loss |
1.81
expected wins across 4 games
Michigan, Monmouth, Rice, Boise State
2.58
expected wins across 4 games
Buffalo, Kent State, Central Michigan, Toledo
2.75
expected wins across 4 games
Bowling Green, Akron, Eastern Michigan, Miami (OH)
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Broc Lowry
returning starter experienced
Decent efficiency guy; 10.9 yds per completion (paltry); avoided negative plays as season went on; offense must pull weight with new-look defense
KJ Burley (DE, from Keiser (NAIA))
55 tackles 15 TFLs 5.5 sacks; NAIA talent translating to FBS; pair with Gardner Jr for major pass rush boost
Title Run · 78th
Went 4-4 in October then 4-0 in November MACtion; avenged loss to Miami 23-13 in title game; crushed Kennesaw State 41-6 in Myrtle Beach Bowl
Def Rank · 2016
First top-50 defensive ranking since 2016; DC O'Leary and DE Tucker (20.5 TFLs 14.5 sacks) both gone to Chargers
| Date | Matchup | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Oct. 3 | WMU at Buffalo | Buffalo's Lemlo dipped heavily into smaller-school ranks; early test if gambit successful; both projected in MAC top 5 |
| Oct. 17 | WMU at CMU | CMU gets huge October opportunity; most proven OL in conference; offense crumbled late 2025 but experienced now |
| Oct. 24 | WMU at Toledo | Same week as Miami at CMU; two huge Week 8 prove-it games; Jacobs revamped Rockets hosting defending champs |
| Nov. 24 | Miami at WMU | Two most likely title game participants playing week before title game; could be huge elimination game; scheduling quirk |
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami (OH) | #81 | -2.9 | #111 | #48 | 49% | #84 |
| 2 | Western Michigan | #95 | -7.2 | #112 | #68 | 51% | #72 |
| 3 | Toledo | #108 | -11.5 | #121 | #84 | 33% | #130 |
| 4 | Buffalo | #110 | -11.9 | #126 | #85 | 30% | #135 |
| 5 | Central Michigan | #113 | -12.4 | #116 | #92 | 46% | #100 |
| 6 | Bowling Green | #115 | -13.3 | #128 | #88 | 35% | #124 |
| 7 | Ohio | #117 | -13.6 | #134 | #72 | 33% | #129 |
| 8 | Eastern Michigan | #121 | -15.0 | #115 | #112 | 62% | #24 |
| 9 | Akron | #127 | -19.5 | #135 | #106 | 40% | #115 |
| 10 | Kent State | #128 | -20.1 | #125 | #127 | 48% | #87 |
| 11 | Sacramento State | #130 | -22.7 | #127 | #131 | 32% | #131 |
| 12 | Ball State | #134 | -25.2 | #136 | #128 | 36% | #123 |
| 13 | Massachusetts | #137 | -30.9 | #138 | #136 | 46% | #96 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.