A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Wisconsin Badgers enters 2026 rated 15th in the Big Ten (#61 nationally). The profile is a strong defense (#22) paired with a poor offense (#106). Schedule math puts the season at 5.3 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 5.4. 4 games project as clear underdog spots (Notre Dame, Penn State, USC, Iowa). The season turns on 6 close games: Michigan State, UCLA, Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue, Minnesota.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 4-8 | 2-7 | #85 | #122 | #35 | #95 |
Luke Fickell — year 4, 17-21 career.
OC: Jeff Grimes (Year 2)
DC: returning
Fickell retained despite 15-19 record; school committed to NIL support; offense fell to 86th in 2023 and never recovered
59% overall, ranked #35 nationally.
Offense 61% · Defense 57%
75 returning starts, 16 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-06 | vs Notre Dame neutral | #3 / +25.8 | -24.0 | 5% | Upset needed |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs Western Illinois | FCS | +29.3 | 98% | Should win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | vs Eastern Michigan | #121 / -15.0 | +19.3 | 92% | Should win |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | @ Penn State | #17 / +15.7 | -16.4 | 11% | Upset needed |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | vs Michigan State | #67 / +0.4 | +3.9 | 62% | Swing |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | @ UCLA | #46 / +5.1 | -5.8 | 33% | Lean loss |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | vs USC | #13 / +16.8 | -12.5 | 17% | Upset needed |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | @ Iowa | #22 / +13.6 | -14.3 | 14% | Upset needed |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | vs Rutgers | #62 / +1.8 | +2.5 | 58% | Swing |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | @ Maryland | #55 / +3.8 | -4.5 | 36% | Lean loss |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | @ Purdue | #82 / -2.9 | +2.2 | 57% | Swing |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | vs Minnesota | #45 / +5.2 | -0.9 | 47% | Swing |
2.05
expected wins across 4 games
Notre Dame, Western Illinois, Eastern Michigan, Penn State
1.26
expected wins across 4 games
Michigan State, UCLA, USC, Iowa
1.98
expected wins across 4 games
Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue, Minnesota
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Colton Joseph
transfer (Old Dominion) experienced
2624 pass yds 1100 rush yds 34 combined TDs; one of most exciting QBs in portal; massive upgrade if healthy
Colton Joseph (QB, from Old Dominion)
2264 pass + 1100 rush yds / 34 combined TDs; potential program savior
Off Sp Plus Decline · 86+
Offense fell to 86th in SP+ in Fickell's first year (2023) and never recovered; that was the high point
Fickell Record · 15-19
15-19 at retention announcement; 2-6 at that point in 2025; school committed to NIL support instead of firing
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State | #1 | +31.8 | #2 | #1 | 60% | #31 |
| 2 | Oregon | #2 | +28.3 | #1 | #3 | 66% | #12 |
| 3 | Indiana | #5 | +24.5 | #9 | #6 | 56% | #52 |
| 4 | USC | #13 | +16.8 | #6 | #29 | 65% | #14 |
| 5 | Michigan | #14 | +16.1 | #20 | #13 | 63% | #20 |
| 6 | Penn State | #17 | +15.7 | #14 | #23 | 52% | #67 |
| 7 | Washington | #21 | +14.5 | #22 | #19 | 65% | #16 |
| 8 | Iowa | #22 | +13.6 | #38 | #17 | 44% | #104 |
| 9 | Illinois | #33 | +9.3 | #28 | #44 | 50% | #76 |
| 10 | Nebraska | #37 | +7.7 | #49 | #39 | 69% | #3 |
| 11 | Minnesota | #45 | +5.2 | #71 | #24 | 68% | #8 |
| 12 | UCLA | #46 | +5.1 | #52 | #54 | 67% | #10 |
| 13 | Northwestern | #49 | +4.6 | #78 | #28 | 57% | #44 |
| 14 | Maryland | #55 | +3.8 | #65 | #43 | 71% | #2 |
| 15 | Wisconsin | #61 | +1.8 | #106 | #22 | 59% | #35 |
| 16 | Rutgers | #62 | +1.8 | #37 | #90 | 47% | #92 |
| 17 | Michigan State | #67 | +0.4 | #61 | #69 | 46% | #97 |
| 18 | Purdue | #82 | -2.9 | #86 | #79 | 58% | #40 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.