A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Wyoming Cowboys enters 2026 rated 6th in the Mountain West (#106 nationally). The profile is an above average defense (#58) paired with a poor offense (#124). Schedule math puts the season at 6.0 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 6.1. 2 games project as clear underdog spots (North Dakota State, UNLV). The season turns on 6 close games: Colorado State, Central Michigan, Hawai'i, San José State, Air Force, New Mexico.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 4-8 | 2-6 | #110 | #130 | #55 | #128 |
Jay Sawvel — year 3, 7-17 career.
OC: Christian Taylor (NEW)
DC: returning
Taylor from Buffalo Bills staff (Josh Allen); Sawvel's offense hasn't cleared 21-point bar; 128.5 avg off SP+ in 2 years
40% overall, ranked #118 nationally.
Offense 43% · Defense 36%
70 returning starts, 15 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | @ Colorado State | #99 / -8.3 | -3.8 | 38% | Lean loss |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs Northern Colorado | FCS | +17.9 | 90% | Should win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | @ Central Michigan | #113 / -12.4 | +0.3 | 51% | Swing |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | vs Hawai'i | #84 / -3.9 | -3.2 | 40% | Lean loss |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | @ North Dakota State | #72 / -1.4 | -10.7 | 21% | Upset needed |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | @ San José State | #122 / -15.5 | +3.4 | 60% | Swing |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | vs Northern Illinois | #125 / -18.2 | +11.1 | 80% | Should win |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | vs Air Force | #79 / -2.4 | -4.7 | 36% | Lean loss |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-08 | @ UNLV | #59 / +2.8 | -14.9 | 13% | Upset needed |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | @ UTEP | #129 / -20.5 | +8.4 | 74% | Lean win |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-22 | vs New Mexico | #68 / -0.5 | -6.6 | 30% | Lean loss |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | vs UConn | #107 / -11.2 | +4.1 | 63% | Lean win |
2.20
expected wins across 4 games
Colorado State, Northern Colorado, Central Michigan, Hawai'i
1.97
expected wins across 4 games
North Dakota State, San José State, Northern Illinois, Air Force
1.80
expected wins across 4 games
UNLV, UTEP, New Mexico, UConn
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Tyler Hughes vs Mason Drube
battle (W&M transfer vs redshirt freshman) limited sample
Hughes previously worked with new OC Taylor; Drube redshirt freshman; both dual-threat; passing is the problem area
Sawvel Offense · 128.5
Avg 128.5 offensive SP+ ranking in 2 years under Sawvel; topped 21 only 7 times; 39-6 when scoring 21+ under Bohl
Final4 Points · 24
Scored 24 total points over final 4 games of 2025; strong defense wasted; new OC Taylor from Bills staff
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNLV | #59 | +2.8 | #33 | #89 | 40% | #116 |
| 2 | New Mexico | #68 | -0.5 | #68 | #73 | 63% | #21 |
| 3 | North Dakota State | #72 | -1.4 | #82 | #67 | 52% | #65 |
| 4 | Air Force | #79 | -2.4 | #70 | #83 | 59% | #37 |
| 5 | Hawai'i | #84 | -3.9 | #69 | #93 | 45% | #101 |
| 6 | Wyoming | #106 | -9.6 | #124 | #58 | 40% | #118 |
| 7 | Nevada | #112 | -12.2 | #117 | #96 | 48% | #91 |
| 8 | San José State | #122 | -15.5 | #114 | #114 | 24% | #137 |
| 9 | Northern Illinois | #125 | -18.2 | #132 | #105 | 48% | #85 |
| 10 | UTEP | #129 | -20.5 | #129 | #119 | 35% | #126 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.