CFBD provider in-game home win probability, after each play, on a 0–1 scale. This is separate from the lab's pregame StackedEnsemble output.
Gaps stay missing; the chart does not interpolate or carry probabilities forward. Overtime follows provider drive/play order. Period values may collapse multiple overtime rounds; we show the raw period and drive without inventing an OT round or elapsed clock.
CFBD documents a methodology break at 2025. Earlier stored values were not backfilled. Cross-season probability paths and Excitement Index values are not directly comparable across that break. This single-game inspection does not measure calibration or improvement.
Provider methodology · Historical coverage