Matchup calculator

2026 model · generated 2026-11-06

Select two teams to compare projected margins.

Conference

Team A

Team B

Field

Venue form

Comparison — opponent-adjusted EPA (ridge)

Walk-forward ratings · epa_basis=opponent_adjusted_ridge
Stat	LSU	Notre Dame
Conference	SEC	FBS Independents
Net rating	0.260	0.250
Adj EPA (off)	0.233	0.268
Adj EPA (allowed)	-0.026	0.018
Recent net (last ≤5 wks)	0.205 · 0.211 · 0.262 · 0.254 · 0.260	0.238 · 0.279 · 0.276 · 0.265 · 0.250
Home record · avg margin	4-0 · 4 games · +33.0	3-0 · 3 games · +40.0
Opponent EPA net (EPA/play) · FBS opponents, rated as of today	0.067 · 7 games	-0.014 · 8 games

Projected margin

+0.7

Derived Team A win estimate

51.5%

Output:: Team A margin (points); logistic win estimate (%)
Model:: EPA-OLS calculator with home-field prior; separate from published picks
Training:: 2026 fit; exact training snapshot and cutoff unavailable
Features:: Opponent-adjusted EPA (ridge); feature snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:: Unavailable — fitted/evaluation identity not recorded. This calculator's scale cannot calibrate the current card.

Positive margin favors Team A. The win estimate is a logistic conversion of this margin, not an independently fitted win-probability forecast or a betting confidence score. Home field is worth +4.0 in this fit, shrunk toward +2.5 with the weight of 40 games (5 neutral-site games in the training set).

Style radar · FBS percentiles · 2026LSU vs Notre Dame

2026 · Through provider Week 9. Each metric uses only published FBS teams with a numeric value. Higher percentile is better; tied values receive the midpoint of their positions, rounded to a whole percentile. Missing values are unranked.

Radar axes as percentiles for LSU and Notre Dame
Axis	LSU	Notre Dame
Off PPA	91th · n=138	99th · n=138
Off success	97th · n=138	98th · n=138
Off explosive	34th · n=138	28th · n=138
Off line yds	56th · n=138	78th · n=138
Def PPA	95th · n=138	81th · n=138
Def success	92th · n=138	78th · n=138
Def explosive	63th · n=138	73th · n=138
Def havoc	98th · n=138	84th · n=138

Percentile of FBS teams in the metric's better direction (defense: lower allowed ranks higher). Raw season PPA, no opponent adjustment.

Model output, not betting advice. Historical hit rates are small-sample backtests; several edge buckets lose money at -110. Flat units only.

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