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WEEK 4 PREVIEW — 2026

Wake Forest at Louisville

Current SP+ (captured 2026-09-20)

All games

Model vs market

PROJECTED HOME MARGIN
+13.2
MARKET HOME MARGIN
+13.5
GAP (PROJECTION − MARKET)
-0.3
HOME WIN PROBABILITY
—

Home win probability is unavailable. No matching probability calibration is available for this projection.

What changed?

No earlier saved card matches this game in the same season and week. A before/after comparison needs two matching cards.

Missing history does not mean the line or projection held.

Projection method

The projected margin is shown in points; it is not a win probability. Home margin is home points minus away points.

Pick status

NO PICK — gap below pick minimum

ATS means against the spread. These EPA-OLS results come from a separate historical replay. They do not validate SP+ picks or estimate this game’s chance of covering.

LINE MOVEMENT (HOME SPREAD, OPENING → LATEST CAPTURED)

Captured 2026-09-20T18:15:15.948210+00:00. These quotes are not verified closing lines.

DraftKings -13.5 → -13.5 · total 58.5 → 58.5

Louisville

NET RATING +0.1 · 3 rated weeks · ACC

79TH PCTL FBS

Wake Forest

NET RATING +0.0 · 3 rated weeks · ACC

72ND PCTL FBS

Team style

2026 · Through provider Week 3, captured 2026-09-20 UTC. CFBD advanced season statistics. Raw PPA, success rates and line yards; no opponent adjustment.

Success is the CFBD successful-play fraction for each down group. Standard downs are first down, second-and-7 or shorter, and third/fourth-and-4 or shorter. Passing downs are the remainder. Line yards weight rushing gains; PPA measures expected points added. These relationships do not establish coaching or blocking causes.

offense

Higher is better on both axes: upper right.

Standard-down success (%) vs Passing-down success (%)

138/138 teams plotted · 0 missing · 20 sparse or unknown samples

28.0711.4648.6733.8769.2856.28Air Force: 59.290, 29.410; estimated plays 113, 34Akron: 51.770, 33.330; estimated plays 141, 60Alabama: 54.780, 35.850; estimated plays 157, 53App State: 47.020, 50.000; estimated plays 151, 74Arizona: 56.430, 42.190; estimated plays 140, 64Arizona State: 46.320, 31.820; estimated plays 136, 66Arkansas: 48.230, 32.940; estimated plays 141, 85Arkansas State: 55.380, 29.550; estimated plays 130, 44Army: 65.450, 30.770; estimated plays 110, 26Auburn: 47.200, 39.390; estimated plays 161, 66Ball State: 41.460, 25.370; estimated plays 123, 67Baylor: 44.380, 35.060; estimated plays 178, 77Boise State: 54.490, 33.930; estimated plays 167, 56Boston College: 44.850, 29.030; estimated plays 136, 62Bowling Green: 43.860, 14.550; estimated plays 114, 55Buffalo: 33.830, 20.730; estimated plays 133, 82BYU: 66.440, 34.210; estimated plays 149, 38California: 47.590, 30.670; estimated plays 145, 75Central Michigan: 43.550, 24.530; estimated plays 124, 53Charlotte: 45.520, 23.440; estimated plays 134, 64Cincinnati: 58.600, 33.870; estimated plays 157, 62Clemson: 40.160, 22.220; estimated plays 122, 72Coastal Carolina: 48.870, 40.000; estimated plays 133, 65Colorado: 47.590, 28.360; estimated plays 145, 67Colorado State: 48.650, 35.710; estimated plays 148, 56Delaware: 50.370, 25.710; estimated plays 135, 70Duke: 44.370, 32.310; estimated plays 142, 65East Carolina: 43.550, 17.540; estimated plays 124, 57Eastern Michigan: 43.350, 18.070; estimated plays 173, 83Florida: 55.330, 31.030; estimated plays 150, 58Florida Atlantic: 44.640, 33.800; estimated plays 168, 71Florida International: 42.860, 29.890; estimated plays 147, 87Florida State: 43.170, 36.070; estimated plays 139, 61Fresno State: 37.900, 27.270; estimated plays 124, 55Georgia: 63.700, 37.210; estimated plays 146, 43Georgia Southern: 43.620, 31.880; estimated plays 149, 69Georgia State: 51.160, 42.860; estimated plays 172, 56Georgia Tech: 50.380, 29.310; estimated plays 131, 58Hawai'i: 41.840, 30.340; estimated plays 141, 89Houston: 58.580, 53.190; estimated plays 169, 47Illinois: 58.520, 39.470; estimated plays 135, 38Indiana: 55.560, 42.000; estimated plays 126, 50Iowa: 56.080, 23.640; estimated plays 148, 55Iowa State: 44.070, 26.530; estimated plays 118, 49Jacksonville State: 49.440, 35.480; estimated plays 178, 62James Madison: 55.630, 34.780; estimated plays 142, 46Kansas: 50.350, 32.910; estimated plays 141, 79Kansas State: 57.330, 43.080; estimated plays 150, 65Kennesaw State: 54.680, 26.870; estimated plays 139, 67Kent State: 36.450, 21.130; estimated plays 107, 71Kentucky: 54.010, 30.430; estimated plays 137, 46Liberty: 43.380, 42.190; estimated plays 136, 64Louisiana: 48.440, 34.380; estimated plays 128, 64Louisiana Tech: 37.300, 26.870; estimated plays 126, 67LSU: 51.960, 41.100; estimated plays 179, 73Marshall: 50.000, 22.810; estimated plays 134, 57Maryland: 56.730, 39.620; estimated plays 171, 53Massachusetts: 52.100, 34.040; estimated plays 119, 47Memphis: 51.610, 35.290; estimated plays 186, 68Miami: 63.100, 31.820; estimated plays 168, 44Miami (OH): 50.850, 27.270; estimated plays 118, 55Michigan: 44.190, 39.580; estimated plays 129, 48Michigan State: 49.020, 28.300; estimated plays 153, 53Middle Tennessee: 47.660, 31.150; estimated plays 128, 61Minnesota: 57.890, 24.000; estimated plays 152, 50Mississippi State: 55.630, 47.060; estimated plays 160, 51Missouri: 48.920, 31.250; estimated plays 139, 64Missouri State: 52.270, 21.150; estimated plays 132, 52Navy: 61.860, 30.770; estimated plays 97, 39NC State: 53.900, 31.150; estimated plays 141, 61Nebraska: 52.560, 48.210; estimated plays 156, 56Nevada: 46.150, 32.200; estimated plays 130, 59New Mexico: 46.480, 27.120; estimated plays 142, 59New Mexico State: 46.100, 38.330; estimated plays 141, 60North Carolina: 53.170, 37.500; estimated plays 126, 56North Dakota State: 45.560, 27.500; estimated plays 180, 80Northern Illinois: 44.000, 17.910; estimated plays 125, 67North Texas: 47.680, 38.360; estimated plays 151, 73Northwestern: 52.220, 42.500; estimated plays 90, 40Notre Dame: 58.280, 23.400; estimated plays 151, 47Ohio: 48.840, 27.690; estimated plays 129, 65Ohio State: 57.330, 30.770; estimated plays 150, 52Oklahoma: 45.040, 33.330; estimated plays 131, 54Oklahoma State: 51.910, 34.330; estimated plays 183, 67Old Dominion: 30.910, 36.670; estimated plays 110, 60Ole Miss: 55.190, 38.980; estimated plays 154, 59Oregon: 53.210, 37.500; estimated plays 156, 64Oregon State: 46.040, 29.330; estimated plays 139, 75Penn State: 50.920, 34.090; estimated plays 163, 44Pittsburgh: 48.970, 39.060; estimated plays 145, 64Purdue: 54.370, 35.090; estimated plays 160, 57Rice: 48.890, 26.790; estimated plays 135, 56Rutgers: 43.970, 45.000; estimated plays 141, 60Sacramento State: 49.470, 21.250; estimated plays 190, 80Sam Houston: 51.330, 39.680; estimated plays 150, 63San Diego State: 40.150, 28.360; estimated plays 132, 67San José State: 46.200, 27.270; estimated plays 184, 99SMU: 54.360, 40.000; estimated plays 149, 55South Alabama: 46.910, 36.620; estimated plays 162, 71South Carolina: 57.400, 32.690; estimated plays 169, 52Southern Miss: 50.300, 29.820; estimated plays 165, 57South Florida: 57.810, 42.310; estimated plays 128, 52Stanford: 46.970, 20.900; estimated plays 132, 67Syracuse: 44.300, 31.250; estimated plays 158, 80TCU: 59.870, 22.030; estimated plays 152, 59Temple: 46.720, 31.580; estimated plays 137, 57Tennessee: 55.770, 38.890; estimated plays 156, 54Texas: 51.880, 39.190; estimated plays 160, 74Texas A&M: 50.600, 38.570; estimated plays 166, 70Texas State: 47.980, 52.940; estimated plays 173, 51Texas Tech: 51.350, 32.810; estimated plays 148, 64Toledo: 48.850, 33.870; estimated plays 131, 62Troy: 39.860, 29.410; estimated plays 143, 68Tulane: 40.200, 23.440; estimated plays 102, 64Tulsa: 54.070, 16.420; estimated plays 135, 67UAB: 46.360, 35.090; estimated plays 151, 57UCF: 49.170, 28.850; estimated plays 120, 52UCLA: 57.430, 37.740; estimated plays 148, 53UConn: 48.940, 35.590; estimated plays 141, 59UL Monroe: 47.400, 29.510; estimated plays 154, 61UNLV: 43.450, 19.180; estimated plays 145, 73USC: 59.910, 44.120; estimated plays 217, 68Utah: 50.930, 48.080; estimated plays 161, 52Utah State: 33.860, 34.670; estimated plays 127, 75UTEP: 46.360, 19.610; estimated plays 110, 51UTSA: 57.140, 23.210; estimated plays 126, 56Vanderbilt: 49.640, 28.570; estimated plays 137, 56Virginia: 55.000, 27.660; estimated plays 160, 47Virginia Tech: 52.270, 44.440; estimated plays 176, 63Washington: 52.830, 22.730; estimated plays 159, 44Washington State: 46.550, 21.050; estimated plays 116, 57Western Kentucky: 38.640, 24.140; estimated plays 132, 87Western Michigan: 45.600, 30.880; estimated plays 125, 68West Virginia: 49.670, 33.930; estimated plays 153, 56Wisconsin: 49.610, 32.080; estimated plays 127, 53Wyoming: 45.240, 34.620; estimated plays 126, 52Louisville: 59.590, 32.650; estimated plays 146, 49LouisvilleWake Forest: 48.120, 41.180; estimated plays 133, 68Wake ForestStandard-down success (%) →Passing-down success (%) →

Louisville: Standard-down success (%): 59.590; Passing-down success (%): 32.650. Estimated split plays: 146 / 49. Sparse or unknown sample.

Wake Forest: Standard-down success (%): 48.120; Passing-down success (%): 41.180. Estimated split plays: 133 / 68.

Line yards / rush vs Rushing PPA / play

138/138 teams plotted · 0 missing · 0 sparse or unknown samples

1.32-0.302.870.144.420.58Air Force: 4.024, 0.344; estimated plays 121, 121Akron: 3.590, 0.096; estimated plays 86, 86Alabama: 3.152, 0.273; estimated plays 120, 120App State: 2.601, 0.077; estimated plays 113, 113Arizona: 3.573, 0.182; estimated plays 84, 84Arizona State: 2.690, 0.018; estimated plays 106, 106Arkansas: 2.482, -0.123; estimated plays 88, 88Arkansas State: 3.493, 0.299; estimated plays 93, 93Army: 4.019, 0.442; estimated plays 108, 108Auburn: 3.461, 0.229; estimated plays 108, 108Ball State: 2.705, 0.189; estimated plays 87, 87Baylor: 3.075, 0.096; estimated plays 126, 126Boise State: 3.721, 0.271; estimated plays 126, 126Boston College: 2.927, -0.043; estimated plays 104, 104Bowling Green: 2.410, -0.242; estimated plays 96, 96Buffalo: 2.456, -0.071; estimated plays 93, 93BYU: 3.952, 0.478; estimated plays 115, 115California: 2.744, -0.076; estimated plays 93, 93Central Michigan: 3.421, 0.203; estimated plays 127, 127Charlotte: 2.419, 0.053; estimated plays 89, 89Cincinnati: 3.714, 0.364; estimated plays 123, 123Clemson: 2.622, 0.032; estimated plays 91, 91Coastal Carolina: 3.462, 0.129; estimated plays 97, 97Colorado: 3.297, 0.104; estimated plays 112, 112Colorado State: 2.553, 0.263; estimated plays 88, 88Delaware: 2.600, 0.058; estimated plays 88, 88Duke: 3.064, 0.178; estimated plays 131, 131East Carolina: 2.380, -0.069; estimated plays 97, 97Eastern Michigan: 2.794, -0.009; estimated plays 106, 106Florida: 3.194, 0.324; estimated plays 120, 120Florida Atlantic: 2.520, -0.052; estimated plays 103, 103Florida International: 2.565, -0.170; estimated plays 98, 98Florida State: 3.053, 0.185; estimated plays 111, 111Fresno State: 2.479, -0.070; estimated plays 94, 94Georgia: 3.919, 0.435; estimated plays 101, 101Georgia Southern: 3.099, 0.074; estimated plays 85, 85Georgia State: 3.541, 0.247; estimated plays 118, 118Georgia Tech: 2.914, 0.058; estimated plays 93, 93Hawai'i: 3.099, -0.057; estimated plays 76, 76Houston: 3.974, 0.344; estimated plays 120, 120Illinois: 3.270, 0.152; estimated plays 84, 84Indiana: 3.570, 0.251; estimated plays 114, 114Iowa: 3.660, 0.339; estimated plays 107, 107Iowa State: 3.186, 0.194; estimated plays 109, 109Jacksonville State: 2.813, 0.029; estimated plays 127, 127James Madison: 3.372, 0.293; estimated plays 107, 107Kansas: 3.269, 0.097; estimated plays 121, 121Kansas State: 3.277, 0.342; estimated plays 120, 120Kennesaw State: 3.075, 0.174; estimated plays 94, 94Kent State: 2.925, -0.104; estimated plays 98, 98Kentucky: 3.131, 0.017; estimated plays 95, 95Liberty: 3.092, -0.015; estimated plays 116, 116Louisiana: 3.180, 0.256; estimated plays 118, 118Louisiana Tech: 2.648, -0.077; estimated plays 97, 97LSU: 3.032, 0.169; estimated plays 138, 138Marshall: 2.775, -0.097; estimated plays 107, 107Maryland: 3.409, 0.253; estimated plays 95, 95Massachusetts: 3.376, 0.266; estimated plays 99, 99Memphis: 3.464, 0.182; estimated plays 142, 142Miami: 3.780, 0.121; estimated plays 109, 109Miami (OH): 3.048, 0.082; estimated plays 85, 85Michigan: 3.109, 0.124; estimated plays 103, 103Michigan State: 2.990, 0.059; estimated plays 114, 114Middle Tennessee: 3.800, 0.224; estimated plays 80, 80Minnesota: 2.568, 0.108; estimated plays 84, 84Mississippi State: 3.479, 0.385; estimated plays 113, 113Missouri: 3.111, 0.058; estimated plays 112, 112Missouri State: 3.100, 0.044; estimated plays 110, 110Navy: 3.885, 0.463; estimated plays 107, 107NC State: 3.304, 0.194; estimated plays 105, 105Nebraska: 3.631, 0.464; estimated plays 118, 118Nevada: 3.165, 0.165; estimated plays 111, 111New Mexico: 3.188, 0.216; estimated plays 126, 126New Mexico State: 3.208, 0.101; estimated plays 91, 91North Carolina: 3.872, 0.124; estimated plays 88, 88North Dakota State: 2.826, 0.040; estimated plays 152, 152Northern Illinois: 2.495, -0.135; estimated plays 79, 79North Texas: 2.974, 0.070; estimated plays 102, 102Northwestern: 2.884, 0.173; estimated plays 79, 79Notre Dame: 2.822, 0.120; estimated plays 105, 105Ohio: 3.518, 0.237; estimated plays 99, 99Ohio State: 3.079, 0.147; estimated plays 99, 99Oklahoma: 2.642, -0.029; estimated plays 96, 96Oklahoma State: 3.205, 0.051; estimated plays 121, 121Old Dominion: 1.538, -0.031; estimated plays 108, 108Ole Miss: 2.757, 0.241; estimated plays 87, 87Oregon: 3.690, 0.272; estimated plays 99, 99Oregon State: 3.131, -0.031; estimated plays 70, 70Penn State: 2.837, 0.116; estimated plays 120, 120Pittsburgh: 3.017, 0.078; estimated plays 106, 106Purdue: 3.005, 0.114; estimated plays 100, 100Rice: 3.388, 0.044; estimated plays 145, 145Rutgers: 2.892, -0.101; estimated plays 90, 90Sacramento State: 2.526, -0.095; estimated plays 117, 117Sam Houston: 2.928, 0.042; estimated plays 89, 89San Diego State: 3.207, 0.072; estimated plays 117, 117San José State: 3.182, -0.014; estimated plays 129, 129SMU: 3.165, -0.003; estimated plays 95, 95South Alabama: 3.272, 0.194; estimated plays 146, 146South Carolina: 3.901, 0.435; estimated plays 115, 115Southern Miss: 3.593, 0.251; estimated plays 104, 104South Florida: 3.213, 0.330; estimated plays 92, 92Stanford: 2.936, 0.071; estimated plays 78, 78Syracuse: 2.851, 0.143; estimated plays 109, 109TCU: 3.284, 0.091; estimated plays 110, 110Temple: 3.109, 0.243; estimated plays 123, 123Tennessee: 3.813, 0.377; estimated plays 131, 131Texas: 2.979, 0.079; estimated plays 122, 122Texas A&M: 3.218, 0.120; estimated plays 116, 116Texas State: 3.201, 0.138; estimated plays 137, 137Texas Tech: 3.087, 0.168; estimated plays 112, 112Toledo: 2.936, 0.244; estimated plays 87, 87Troy: 2.694, 0.064; estimated plays 116, 116Tulane: 2.518, 0.134; estimated plays 78, 78Tulsa: 3.257, 0.297; estimated plays 111, 111UAB: 3.205, 0.145; estimated plays 121, 121UCF: 3.273, 0.407; estimated plays 95, 95UCLA: 4.202, 0.521; estimated plays 118, 118UConn: 3.219, 0.207; estimated plays 110, 110UL Monroe: 3.118, 0.113; estimated plays 109, 109UNLV: 3.023, 0.027; estimated plays 113, 113USC: 3.349, 0.065; estimated plays 148, 148Utah: 3.555, 0.293; estimated plays 117, 117Utah State: 3.013, -0.194; estimated plays 90, 90UTEP: 2.410, -0.192; estimated plays 95, 95UTSA: 2.935, 0.209; estimated plays 82, 82Vanderbilt: 3.174, 0.193; estimated plays 96, 96Virginia: 3.428, 0.222; estimated plays 129, 129Virginia Tech: 3.001, 0.212; estimated plays 115, 115Washington: 2.858, 0.042; estimated plays 84, 84Washington State: 2.967, 0.052; estimated plays 96, 96Western Kentucky: 2.420, -0.202; estimated plays 105, 105Western Michigan: 2.809, 0.148; estimated plays 117, 117West Virginia: 3.170, 0.122; estimated plays 161, 161Wisconsin: 2.909, 0.127; estimated plays 90, 90Wyoming: 3.415, 0.082; estimated plays 95, 95Louisville: 2.854, 0.267; estimated plays 110, 110LouisvilleWake Forest: 3.013, 0.205; estimated plays 84, 84Wake ForestLine yards / rush →Rushing PPA / play →

Louisville: Line yards / rush: 2.854; Rushing PPA / play: 0.267. Estimated split plays: 110 / 110.

Wake Forest: Line yards / rush: 3.013; Rushing PPA / play: 0.205. Estimated split plays: 84 / 84.

defense

Lower allowed is better on both axes: lower left.

Standard-down success (%) vs Passing-down success (%)

138/138 teams plotted · 0 missing · 11 sparse or unknown samples

26.5010.4544.8533.0163.2055.57Air Force: 36.760, 21.050; estimated plays 68, 38Akron: 46.720, 29.510; estimated plays 122, 61Alabama: 36.520, 27.120; estimated plays 115, 59App State: 48.510, 13.560; estimated plays 134, 59Arizona: 42.860, 27.030; estimated plays 105, 74Arizona State: 45.080, 22.390; estimated plays 122, 67Arkansas: 53.490, 22.220; estimated plays 129, 45Arkansas State: 50.000, 31.480; estimated plays 136, 54Army: 47.950, 29.730; estimated plays 73, 37Auburn: 41.070, 30.000; estimated plays 168, 70Ball State: 52.380, 40.000; estimated plays 147, 55Baylor: 36.920, 20.510; estimated plays 130, 78Boise State: 41.000, 25.370; estimated plays 100, 67Boston College: 37.590, 39.390; estimated plays 133, 66Bowling Green: 55.170, 34.090; estimated plays 145, 44Buffalo: 44.060, 28.210; estimated plays 143, 78BYU: 38.710, 33.330; estimated plays 124, 63California: 43.750, 25.680; estimated plays 128, 74Central Michigan: 48.510, 32.260; estimated plays 134, 62Charlotte: 49.300, 52.460; estimated plays 142, 61Cincinnati: 45.240, 26.980; estimated plays 126, 63Clemson: 43.790, 40.260; estimated plays 153, 77Coastal Carolina: 46.260, 27.450; estimated plays 147, 51Colorado: 39.710, 38.360; estimated plays 136, 73Colorado State: 51.540, 30.000; estimated plays 130, 50Delaware: 41.220, 27.630; estimated plays 131, 76Duke: 49.210, 16.950; estimated plays 126, 59East Carolina: 39.570, 39.740; estimated plays 139, 78Eastern Michigan: 50.260, 31.460; estimated plays 189, 89Florida: 38.410, 32.000; estimated plays 151, 75Florida Atlantic: 48.550, 30.770; estimated plays 138, 65Florida International: 42.370, 23.380; estimated plays 118, 77Florida State: 50.760, 37.680; estimated plays 132, 69Fresno State: 46.900, 31.150; estimated plays 145, 61Georgia: 43.970, 17.500; estimated plays 116, 80Georgia Southern: 33.910, 23.680; estimated plays 115, 76Georgia State: 44.950, 23.330; estimated plays 109, 60Georgia Tech: 44.680, 32.840; estimated plays 141, 67Hawai'i: 49.030, 26.000; estimated plays 155, 50Houston: 42.110, 26.150; estimated plays 114, 65Illinois: 45.710, 27.690; estimated plays 140, 65Indiana: 29.910, 22.220; estimated plays 107, 72Iowa: 30.100, 15.490; estimated plays 103, 71Iowa State: 40.830, 14.520; estimated plays 120, 62Jacksonville State: 48.210, 25.350; estimated plays 195, 71James Madison: 32.260, 22.340; estimated plays 124, 94Kansas: 36.440, 22.080; estimated plays 118, 77Kansas State: 29.030, 25.320; estimated plays 93, 79Kennesaw State: 46.150, 30.000; estimated plays 130, 60Kent State: 60.670, 27.910; estimated plays 150, 43Kentucky: 47.020, 35.940; estimated plays 151, 64Liberty: 43.800, 28.330; estimated plays 121, 60Louisiana: 46.100, 33.930; estimated plays 141, 56Louisiana Tech: 41.430, 22.780; estimated plays 140, 79LSU: 35.240, 20.270; estimated plays 105, 74Marshall: 57.890, 28.570; estimated plays 152, 56Maryland: 39.090, 33.800; estimated plays 110, 71Massachusetts: 38.330, 25.680; estimated plays 120, 74Memphis: 50.280, 26.040; estimated plays 179, 96Miami: 41.960, 21.540; estimated plays 112, 65Miami (OH): 52.590, 35.380; estimated plays 135, 65Michigan: 40.000, 18.180; estimated plays 115, 66Michigan State: 48.210, 27.450; estimated plays 112, 51Middle Tennessee: 46.340, 27.080; estimated plays 123, 48Minnesota: 44.740, 21.310; estimated plays 114, 61Mississippi State: 42.480, 16.130; estimated plays 153, 62Missouri: 35.900, 25.000; estimated plays 117, 76Missouri State: 57.620, 34.330; estimated plays 151, 67Navy: 45.000, 28.570; estimated plays 80, 42NC State: 46.880, 26.920; estimated plays 128, 52Nebraska: 42.730, 16.920; estimated plays 110, 65Nevada: 46.900, 31.510; estimated plays 145, 73New Mexico: 30.300, 22.390; estimated plays 99, 67New Mexico State: 47.010, 30.880; estimated plays 134, 68North Carolina: 47.140, 22.730; estimated plays 140, 66North Dakota State: 48.780, 18.420; estimated plays 164, 76Northern Illinois: 50.000, 34.290; estimated plays 140, 70North Texas: 51.470, 40.740; estimated plays 136, 54Northwestern: 49.090, 21.950; estimated plays 110, 41Notre Dame: 39.390, 21.050; estimated plays 99, 57Ohio: 47.170, 49.120; estimated plays 159, 57Ohio State: 35.830, 25.000; estimated plays 120, 76Oklahoma: 29.200, 26.230; estimated plays 113, 61Oklahoma State: 44.230, 16.390; estimated plays 104, 61Old Dominion: 33.580, 27.500; estimated plays 137, 80Ole Miss: 50.740, 23.810; estimated plays 136, 63Oregon: 41.980, 19.670; estimated plays 131, 61Oregon State: 49.320, 32.470; estimated plays 146, 77Penn State: 34.190, 20.690; estimated plays 117, 58Pittsburgh: 38.050, 23.290; estimated plays 113, 73Purdue: 49.240, 45.450; estimated plays 132, 66Rice: 50.400, 28.790; estimated plays 125, 66Rutgers: 52.900, 32.730; estimated plays 138, 55Sacramento State: 42.680, 21.180; estimated plays 164, 85Sam Houston: 36.070, 19.740; estimated plays 122, 76San Diego State: 48.730, 30.770; estimated plays 158, 65San José State: 51.010, 26.970; estimated plays 198, 89SMU: 44.530, 21.820; estimated plays 137, 55South Alabama: 46.460, 36.000; estimated plays 99, 50South Carolina: 34.860, 28.990; estimated plays 109, 69Southern Miss: 42.680, 41.940; estimated plays 157, 62South Florida: 51.820, 25.810; estimated plays 137, 62Stanford: 49.660, 38.890; estimated plays 145, 72Syracuse: 45.220, 20.590; estimated plays 115, 68TCU: 37.500, 26.790; estimated plays 112, 56Temple: 48.940, 36.670; estimated plays 141, 60Tennessee: 40.940, 28.170; estimated plays 127, 71Texas: 39.530, 30.360; estimated plays 129, 56Texas A&M: 40.540, 26.530; estimated plays 111, 49Texas State: 53.590, 41.560; estimated plays 153, 77Texas Tech: 37.960, 33.780; estimated plays 137, 74Toledo: 39.190, 20.830; estimated plays 148, 72Troy: 44.830, 18.460; estimated plays 116, 65Tulane: 43.880, 35.000; estimated plays 139, 80Tulsa: 40.540, 32.050; estimated plays 148, 78UAB: 50.000, 28.850; estimated plays 126, 52UCF: 37.860, 25.930; estimated plays 140, 81UCLA: 42.860, 25.000; estimated plays 133, 72UConn: 44.220, 25.930; estimated plays 147, 81UL Monroe: 54.550, 42.000; estimated plays 154, 50UNLV: 47.370, 30.140; estimated plays 133, 73USC: 44.220, 35.900; estimated plays 147, 78Utah: 32.710, 26.970; estimated plays 107, 89Utah State: 44.520, 30.430; estimated plays 146, 69UTEP: 48.980, 37.500; estimated plays 147, 48UTSA: 48.000, 32.880; estimated plays 175, 73Vanderbilt: 44.070, 21.790; estimated plays 118, 78Virginia: 40.340, 25.370; estimated plays 119, 67Virginia Tech: 37.860, 23.190; estimated plays 103, 69Washington: 34.650, 29.230; estimated plays 127, 65Washington State: 46.460, 24.240; estimated plays 127, 66Western Kentucky: 54.790, 32.560; estimated plays 146, 43Western Michigan: 46.710, 38.000; estimated plays 152, 50West Virginia: 46.480, 27.940; estimated plays 142, 68Wisconsin: 45.930, 16.070; estimated plays 135, 56Wyoming: 50.350, 30.770; estimated plays 143, 52Louisville: 44.520, 27.540; estimated plays 155, 69LouisvilleWake Forest: 52.410, 35.710; estimated plays 166, 56Wake ForestStandard-down success (%) →Passing-down success (%) →

Louisville: Standard-down success (%): 44.520; Passing-down success (%): 27.540. Estimated split plays: 155 / 69.

Wake Forest: Standard-down success (%): 52.410; Passing-down success (%): 35.710. Estimated split plays: 166 / 56.

Line yards / rush vs Rushing PPA / play

138/138 teams plotted · 0 missing · 0 sparse or unknown samples

0.04-0.412.000.013.950.43Air Force: 2.526, -0.031; estimated plays 57, 57Akron: 2.498, -0.006; estimated plays 84, 84Alabama: 1.712, -0.214; estimated plays 80, 80App State: 2.291, -0.058; estimated plays 85, 85Arizona: 2.816, 0.085; estimated plays 67, 67Arizona State: 2.907, -0.026; estimated plays 94, 94Arkansas: 3.163, 0.268; estimated plays 92, 92Arkansas State: 3.210, -0.006; estimated plays 109, 109Army: 2.744, 0.102; estimated plays 54, 54Auburn: 2.518, -0.048; estimated plays 114, 114Ball State: 3.258, 0.372; estimated plays 97, 97Baylor: 2.470, -0.195; estimated plays 91, 91Boise State: 2.239, -0.022; estimated plays 67, 67Boston College: 3.030, 0.022; estimated plays 114, 114Bowling Green: 3.663, 0.309; estimated plays 110, 110Buffalo: 2.954, -0.010; estimated plays 108, 108BYU: 2.410, -0.069; estimated plays 76, 76California: 3.201, 0.212; estimated plays 89, 89Central Michigan: 3.306, 0.115; estimated plays 101, 101Charlotte: 2.813, 0.187; estimated plays 104, 104Cincinnati: 2.973, 0.068; estimated plays 82, 82Clemson: 3.537, 0.242; estimated plays 108, 108Coastal Carolina: 2.902, -0.023; estimated plays 118, 118Colorado: 2.350, -0.147; estimated plays 105, 105Colorado State: 3.407, 0.194; estimated plays 112, 112Delaware: 2.800, -0.041; estimated plays 91, 91Duke: 2.966, -0.142; estimated plays 74, 74East Carolina: 2.437, 0.060; estimated plays 131, 131Eastern Michigan: 2.948, 0.123; estimated plays 124, 124Florida: 2.896, -0.041; estimated plays 83, 83Florida Atlantic: 2.922, 0.236; estimated plays 108, 108Florida International: 2.157, -0.114; estimated plays 89, 89Florida State: 3.159, 0.165; estimated plays 87, 87Fresno State: 2.792, -0.208; estimated plays 99, 99Georgia: 1.838, -0.215; estimated plays 82, 82Georgia Southern: 2.002, -0.094; estimated plays 87, 87Georgia State: 3.194, 0.241; estimated plays 84, 84Georgia Tech: 3.046, 0.146; estimated plays 135, 135Hawai'i: 3.280, 0.225; estimated plays 111, 111Houston: 2.093, -0.069; estimated plays 74, 74Illinois: 2.526, 0.082; estimated plays 108, 108Indiana: 2.170, -0.188; estimated plays 89, 89Iowa: 2.249, -0.263; estimated plays 80, 80Iowa State: 2.374, -0.191; estimated plays 99, 99Jacksonville State: 2.975, 0.105; estimated plays 162, 162James Madison: 2.422, -0.113; estimated plays 119, 119Kansas: 2.132, -0.157; estimated plays 112, 112Kansas State: 2.107, -0.037; estimated plays 93, 93Kennesaw State: 3.205, 0.087; estimated plays 111, 111Kent State: 3.502, 0.233; estimated plays 97, 97Kentucky: 2.832, 0.156; estimated plays 97, 97Liberty: 2.956, 0.187; estimated plays 96, 96Louisiana: 2.726, -0.133; estimated plays 95, 95Louisiana Tech: 2.063, -0.017; estimated plays 126, 126LSU: 1.789, -0.215; estimated plays 71, 71Marshall: 3.490, 0.117; estimated plays 100, 100Maryland: 1.917, -0.100; estimated plays 89, 89Massachusetts: 2.309, -0.349; estimated plays 89, 89Memphis: 3.389, 0.290; estimated plays 134, 134Miami: 2.335, -0.106; estimated plays 54, 54Miami (OH): 2.704, 0.016; estimated plays 79, 79Michigan: 2.613, -0.099; estimated plays 99, 99Michigan State: 2.764, 0.095; estimated plays 83, 83Middle Tennessee: 2.681, -0.074; estimated plays 98, 98Minnesota: 2.690, 0.068; estimated plays 91, 91Mississippi State: 2.854, -0.007; estimated plays 87, 87Missouri: 2.321, -0.055; estimated plays 99, 99Missouri State: 3.521, 0.167; estimated plays 124, 124Navy: 2.632, -0.081; estimated plays 57, 57NC State: 2.899, 0.103; estimated plays 100, 100Nebraska: 2.972, 0.088; estimated plays 93, 93Nevada: 3.133, 0.008; estimated plays 116, 116New Mexico: 1.722, -0.151; estimated plays 86, 86New Mexico State: 2.954, 0.025; estimated plays 89, 89North Carolina: 2.940, 0.058; estimated plays 98, 98North Dakota State: 2.646, -0.231; estimated plays 128, 128Northern Illinois: 3.055, 0.162; estimated plays 94, 94North Texas: 2.758, 0.017; estimated plays 114, 114Northwestern: 3.493, 0.023; estimated plays 68, 68Notre Dame: 2.083, -0.286; estimated plays 86, 86Ohio: 3.156, 0.252; estimated plays 135, 135Ohio State: 2.419, -0.236; estimated plays 94, 94Oklahoma: 2.265, -0.105; estimated plays 104, 104Oklahoma State: 2.810, -0.101; estimated plays 83, 83Old Dominion: 2.263, -0.168; estimated plays 121, 121Ole Miss: 2.694, 0.077; estimated plays 108, 108Oregon: 2.617, -0.002; estimated plays 88, 88Oregon State: 3.116, 0.100; estimated plays 107, 107Penn State: 2.366, -0.058; estimated plays 91, 91Pittsburgh: 1.947, -0.088; estimated plays 74, 74Purdue: 3.313, 0.326; estimated plays 107, 107Rice: 2.761, 0.110; estimated plays 107, 107Rutgers: 3.336, 0.144; estimated plays 101, 101Sacramento State: 2.622, -0.124; estimated plays 125, 125Sam Houston: 2.800, 0.114; estimated plays 108, 108San Diego State: 3.418, 0.053; estimated plays 114, 114San José State: 2.931, 0.106; estimated plays 124, 124SMU: 2.756, 0.053; estimated plays 101, 101South Alabama: 2.643, 0.165; estimated plays 69, 69South Carolina: 2.289, -0.100; estimated plays 79, 79Southern Miss: 3.390, 0.183; estimated plays 126, 126South Florida: 2.416, -0.163; estimated plays 106, 106Stanford: 3.119, 0.121; estimated plays 100, 100Syracuse: 2.629, 0.025; estimated plays 90, 90TCU: 2.596, -0.209; estimated plays 81, 81Temple: 2.508, 0.058; estimated plays 88, 88Tennessee: 3.344, 0.141; estimated plays 84, 84Texas: 2.557, -0.131; estimated plays 90, 90Texas A&M: 2.603, -0.200; estimated plays 85, 85Texas State: 2.718, 0.116; estimated plays 94, 94Texas Tech: 3.162, 0.041; estimated plays 78, 78Toledo: 2.813, -0.003; estimated plays 119, 119Troy: 2.010, -0.110; estimated plays 82, 82Tulane: 2.976, 0.144; estimated plays 124, 124Tulsa: 2.856, -0.183; estimated plays 91, 91UAB: 3.300, 0.093; estimated plays 115, 115UCF: 2.381, -0.091; estimated plays 113, 113UCLA: 2.719, -0.066; estimated plays 99, 99UConn: 2.747, 0.038; estimated plays 90, 90UL Monroe: 3.491, 0.323; estimated plays 114, 114UNLV: 3.577, 0.128; estimated plays 99, 99USC: 2.661, 0.079; estimated plays 108, 108Utah: 2.755, -0.050; estimated plays 75, 75Utah State: 2.604, 0.015; estimated plays 94, 94UTEP: 2.884, 0.114; estimated plays 116, 116UTSA: 3.396, 0.146; estimated plays 130, 130Vanderbilt: 2.512, -0.038; estimated plays 90, 90Virginia: 2.835, -0.058; estimated plays 101, 101Virginia Tech: 0.309, -0.252; estimated plays 84, 84Washington: 2.325, -0.209; estimated plays 99, 99Washington State: 2.783, 0.120; estimated plays 99, 99Western Kentucky: 3.684, 0.371; estimated plays 116, 116Western Michigan: 3.127, -0.040; estimated plays 109, 109West Virginia: 2.733, -0.091; estimated plays 96, 96Wisconsin: 2.963, 0.086; estimated plays 99, 99Wyoming: 3.260, 0.127; estimated plays 124, 124Louisville: 2.884, -0.019; estimated plays 110, 110LouisvilleWake Forest: 2.933, 0.067; estimated plays 102, 102Wake ForestLine yards / rush →Rushing PPA / play →

Louisville: Line yards / rush: 2.884; Rushing PPA / play: -0.019. Estimated split plays: 110 / 110.

Wake Forest: Line yards / rush: 2.933; Rushing PPA / play: 0.067. Estimated split plays: 102 / 102.

Hollow points have fewer than 50 estimated plays on either axis, or unknown coverage. This is a display flag, not a reliability threshold. Counts estimate provider plays × split rate, rounded; they are not audited play counts. Values remain visible.

Model output, not betting advice. Historical hit rates are small-sample backtests; several edge buckets lose money at -110. Flat units only.