Week 10 · 2026

Iowa State at Baylor

Visual game report

Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.

Player production & success

CFBD regular season · through week 9 · observed 2026-11-06 UTC. Captured before kickoff.

Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.

Iowa State

Window: 2026-10-31 (reported) · 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-10 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-07T17:00:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Jaylen Raynor QB 3 games	38.9% 28 / 72 plays	45.0% 9 / 20 plays
Aiden Flora RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	31.0% 18 / 58 plays
Connor Moberly QB 1 games	20.0% 4 / 20 plays	57.1% 4 / 7 plays
Arnold Barnes RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	25.0% 1 / 4 plays
Ryver Peppers RB 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	50.0% 1 / 2 plays
Omari Hayes WR 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 1 plays
Cameron Pettaway RB 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 1 plays
Jamal Polite Jr. WR 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 1 plays

Traditional season production · 67 players

Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Aiden Flora · RB

CFBD athlete 5219258

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 0
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 2
passing · COMPLETIONS: 2
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 1.000
passing · TD: 2
passing · YDS: 48
passing · YPA: 24.0
puntReturns · AVG: 17.9
puntReturns · LONG: 66
puntReturns · NO: 7
puntReturns · TD: 1
puntReturns · YDS: 125
receiving · LONG: 30
receiving · REC: 13
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 80
receiving · YPR: 6.2
rushing · CAR: 131
rushing · LONG: 75
rushing · TD: 8
rushing · YDS: 937
rushing · YPC: 7.2

Arnold Barnes · RB

CFBD athlete 5110516

rushing · CAR: 28
rushing · LONG: 10
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 102
rushing · YPC: 3.6

Beau Goodwin · LB

CFBD athlete 5193049

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 25
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1
interceptions · AVG: 6.5
interceptions · INT: 2
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 13

Beni Ngoyi · CB

CFBD athlete 4920898

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 9
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Blake Hawkins · DE

CFBD athlete 5331611

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Bradley Esser · LB

CFBD athlete 5279179

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Brady Hummel · S

CFBD athlete 5311263

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 7

Brody Miller · S

CFBD athlete 5263782

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 12
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 25

Bryson Lamb · DT

CFBD athlete 5085122

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 16

Caden Crawford · DE

CFBD athlete 4718462

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Caden Matson · S

CFBD athlete 5093133

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Caleb Francois · RB

CFBD athlete 5265174

rushing · CAR: 6
rushing · LONG: 8
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 16
rushing · YPC: 2.7

Caleb Schmidt · LS

CFBD athlete 5332954

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Cameron Pettaway · RB

CFBD athlete 5194663

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 30.6
kickReturns · LONG: 100
kickReturns · NO: 8
kickReturns · TD: 1
kickReturns · YDS: 245
receiving · LONG: 40
receiving · REC: 8
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 91
receiving · YPR: 11.4
rushing · CAR: 22
rushing · LONG: 11
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 52
rushing · YPC: 2.4

Carson Robbins · WR

CFBD athlete 5219255

kickReturns · AVG: 22.0
kickReturns · LONG: 22
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 22
puntReturns · AVG: 9.0
puntReturns · LONG: 9
puntReturns · NO: 1
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 9
receiving · LONG: 11
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 11
receiving · YPR: 11.0

Carson Willich · LB

CFBD athlete 5081857

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 24
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 7
defensive · TOT: 50

Carter Pabst · WR

CFBD athlete 5263613

kickReturns · AVG: 14.0
kickReturns · LONG: 14
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 14
receiving · LONG: 24
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 24
receiving · YPR: 24.0

Chet Andrews · DE

CFBD athlete 5081883

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Christian Greenlaw · TE

CFBD athlete 5155426

receiving · LONG: 1
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 1
receiving · YPR: 1.0

Cody Jackson · WR

CFBD athlete 4875853

receiving · LONG: 46
receiving · REC: 13
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 236
receiving · YPR: 18.2

Connor Moberly · QB

CFBD athlete 5140620

passing · ATT: 19
passing · COMPLETIONS: 9
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.474
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 83
passing · YPA: 4.4
rushing · CAR: 18
rushing · LONG: 14
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 44
rushing · YPC: 2.4

Connor Welsch · LB

CFBD athlete 5219262

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Damarius Russell · S

CFBD athlete 5263577

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

David Coffey · CB

CFBD athlete 5153035

defensive · PD: 4
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 17
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 23

Dominic Overby · WR

CFBD athlete 5192958

receiving · LONG: 45
receiving · REC: 10
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 212
receiving · YPR: 21.2

Donovan Fitzmaurice · DT

CFBD athlete 5263215

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 8

Drew Surges · S

CFBD athlete 5150695

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 13
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 22

Duhron Goodman · S

CFBD athlete 5085573

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 15
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.0
defensive · TOT: 25

Easton Miller · RB

CFBD athlete 5161735

receiving · LONG: 18
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 40
receiving · YPR: 8.0
rushing · CAR: 5
rushing · LONG: 6
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 12
rushing · YPC: 2.4

Eddie Lemos · S

CFBD athlete 5081867

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 9

Ethan Gurney · P

CFBD athlete 5327683

punting · In 20: 5
punting · LONG: 50
punting · NO: 8
punting · TB: 1
punting · YDS: 304
punting · YPP: 38.0

Ethan Stecker · LB

CFBD athlete 5222569

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Evan Boyd · WR

CFBD athlete 5056106

receiving · LONG: 6
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 6
receiving · YPR: 6.0

Isaac Terrell · DE

CFBD athlete 5084892

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 3
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3
defensive · TOT: 14

Jace J. Gilbert · DE

CFBD athlete 5125393

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 5
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 12

Jack Janikowski · DE

CFBD athlete 5153062

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 4
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.0
defensive · TOT: 17

Jaheim Singletary · CB

CFBD athlete 4685525

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Jamal Polite Jr. · WR

CFBD athlete 5326123

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 53
receiving · REC: 14
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 286
receiving · YPR: 20.4
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 0
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 0
rushing · YPC: 0.0

Jareb Ramos · DT

CFBD athlete 5087707

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Jaylen Raynor · QB

CFBD athlete 5080403

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
fumbles · FUM: 2
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 186
passing · COMPLETIONS: 111
passing · INT: 5
passing · PCT: 0.597
passing · TD: 10
passing · YDS: 1416
passing · YPA: 7.6
rushing · CAR: 67
rushing · LONG: 35
rushing · TD: 4
rushing · YDS: 193
rushing · YPC: 2.9

Jonah DuPont · P

CFBD athlete 5296218

punting · In 20: 6
punting · LONG: 60
punting · NO: 31
punting · TB: 0
punting · YDS: 1359
punting · YPP: 43.8

Kaleb Bilal-Jones · DT

CFBD athlete 5306762

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 3
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Key'on Washington · CB

CFBD athlete 5174446

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 12
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 14

Kyle Konrardy · PK

CFBD athlete 5150706

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
kicking · FGA: 14
kicking · FGM: 12
kicking · LONG: 51
kicking · PCT: 0.857
kicking · PTS: 64
kicking · XPA: 28
kicking · XPM: 28

Landon Kalsbeck · LB

CFBD athlete 5289728

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Malaki Ta'ase · DE

CFBD athlete 5220808

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 12
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Malcolm Jones · LB

CFBD athlete 4838544

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 6

Malcolm Watkins · WR

CFBD athlete 5290954

receiving · LONG: 8
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 13
receiving · YPR: 6.5

Matthew McClain · S

CFBD athlete 5291016

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Max Baloun · DT

CFBD athlete 4695426

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 10

Micah Harper · S

CFBD athlete 4431120

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 8

Montreze Smith · LB

CFBD athlete 5147044

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 6

Omari Hayes · WR

CFBD athlete 4837269

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 2
puntReturns · AVG: 1.0
puntReturns · LONG: 1
puntReturns · NO: 1
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 1
receiving · LONG: 34
receiving · REC: 21
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 246
receiving · YPR: 11.7
rushing · CAR: 4
rushing · LONG: 15
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 23
rushing · YPC: 5.8

Rylan Barnes · TE

CFBD athlete 5150699

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Ryver Peppers · RB

CFBD athlete 5203478

receiving · LONG: 0
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 0
receiving · YPR: 0.0
rushing · CAR: 10
rushing · LONG: 15
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 35
rushing · YPC: 3.5

Seth Johnson · CB

CFBD athlete 5224370

defensive · PD: 4
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 16
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 28
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Sullivan Schlimgen · LB

CFBD athlete 5264502

defensive · PD: 5
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 42
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 5
defensive · TOT: 79
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Toe Sanders · CB

CFBD athlete 5274337

fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Trey Verdon · DE

CFBD athlete 5196985

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Trillion Sorrell · CB

CFBD athlete 5263610

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Tristan Exline · LB

CFBD athlete 5329095

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Tyler Claiborne · WR

CFBD athlete 5081882

receiving · LONG: 17
receiving · REC: 16
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 156
receiving · YPR: 9.8

Tyler Fortenberry · TE

CFBD athlete 5218664

receiving · LONG: 12
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 32
receiving · YPR: 6.4

Tyrone Cotton III · CB

CFBD athlete 5263572

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 8

Vince Benetti · TE

CFBD athlete 5150693

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 32
receiving · REC: 10
receiving · TD: 3
receiving · YDS: 113
receiving · YPR: 11.3

Willie Breland III · LB

CFBD athlete 5383006

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 22

Zaimir Hawk · DT

CFBD athlete 5120867

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 13

Baylor

Window: 2026-10-30 (reported) · 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-07T17:00:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
D.J. Lagway QB 3 games	36.8% 43 / 117 plays	42.1% 8 / 19 plays
Caden Knighten RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	26.1% 6 / 23 plays
Ryelan Morris RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	45.5% 10 / 22 plays
Michael Turner RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	47.6% 10 / 21 plays
Dawson Pendergrass RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	14.3% 2 / 14 plays

Traditional season production · 56 players

Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Anthony Crenshaw · LB

CFBD athlete 5153853

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Bo Onu · S

CFBD athlete 5207658

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 3.5
defensive · SOLO: 12
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 5
defensive · TOT: 19
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Caden Knighten · RB

CFBD athlete 5295723

kickReturns · AVG: 26.0
kickReturns · LONG: 36
kickReturns · NO: 3
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 78
receiving · LONG: 11
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 25
receiving · YPR: 5.0
rushing · CAR: 74
rushing · LONG: 75
rushing · TD: 3
rushing · YDS: 334
rushing · YPC: 4.5

Colby McCalister · S

CFBD athlete 4816073

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 18
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 21

D.J. Lagway · QB

CFBD athlete 5079555

fumbles · FUM: 2
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 242
passing · COMPLETIONS: 129
passing · INT: 4
passing · PCT: 0.533
passing · TD: 13
passing · YDS: 1671
passing · YPA: 6.9
rushing · CAR: 37
rushing · LONG: 20
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 42
rushing · YPC: 1.1

Daniel Cobbs · S

CFBD athlete 5151076

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 3.5
defensive · SOLO: 15
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 5
defensive · TOT: 25

Dawson Pendergrass · RB

CFBD athlete 4921517

receiving · LONG: 19
receiving · REC: 6
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 30
receiving · YPR: 5.0
rushing · CAR: 94
rushing · LONG: 17
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 339
rushing · YPC: 3.6

DeBraun Hampton · WR

CFBD athlete 5222227

receiving · LONG: 14
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 24
receiving · YPR: 12.0

Devin Turner · S

CFBD athlete 4833373

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 20
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 26

Devon Jordan · CB

CFBD athlete 5147178

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 24
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 32
interceptions · AVG: 15.0
interceptions · INT: 4
interceptions · TD: 1
interceptions · YDS: 60

Devonte Tezino · DL

CFBD athlete 4912039

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 4

Drelon Miller · WR

CFBD athlete 5079612

receiving · LONG: 36
receiving · REC: 7
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 101
receiving · YPR: 14.4

Edward Griffin · QB

CFBD athlete 5213685

passing · ATT: 6
passing · COMPLETIONS: 2
passing · INT: 1
passing · PCT: 0.333
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 19
passing · YPA: 3.2
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 2
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 2
rushing · YPC: 2.0

Garrick Ponder · DE

CFBD athlete 5093198

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 3.5
defensive · SOLO: 15
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 9.0
defensive · TOT: 22
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1
puntReturns · AVG: 7.0
puntReturns · LONG: 7
puntReturns · NO: 1
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 7

Gavin Freeman · WR

CFBD athlete 4896289

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2
puntReturns · AVG: 8.5
puntReturns · LONG: 10
puntReturns · NO: 2
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 17
receiving · LONG: 77
receiving · REC: 63
receiving · TD: 3
receiving · YDS: 792
receiving · YPR: 12.6

HD Davis · RB

CFBD athlete 5291009

rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 1
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 1
rushing · YPC: 1.0

Hawkins Polley · TE

CFBD athlete 4910222

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 28
receiving · REC: 8
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 107
receiving · YPR: 13.4

Hosea Wheeler · DL

CFBD athlete 5085436

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 12

JJ Shelton · LB

CFBD athlete 5167190

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 1

Jackson Blackwell · DL

CFBD athlete 5205092

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Jadon Porter · WR

CFBD athlete 5079627

receiving · LONG: 53
receiving · REC: 14
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 273
receiving · YPR: 19.5

Jae'Lin Battle · DL

CFBD athlete 5268983

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 2

Jamaal Whyce · DL

CFBD athlete 4808747

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1.5
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.0
defensive · TOT: 15

Jayden McGowan · WR

CFBD athlete 4883774

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 28.5
kickReturns · LONG: 51
kickReturns · NO: 4
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 114
puntReturns · AVG: 12.2
puntReturns · LONG: 36
puntReturns · NO: 14
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 171
receiving · LONG: 43
receiving · REC: 13
receiving · TD: 4
receiving · YDS: 257
receiving · YPR: 19.8
rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 13
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 15
rushing · YPC: 7.5

Jordan Davis · S

CFBD athlete 5268931

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Jordan Mack · DE

CFBD athlete 5295766

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 2.5
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.5
defensive · TOT: 7

Kaleb Arterberry · LB

CFBD athlete 5393027

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 8

Kaleb Burns · LB

CFBD athlete 5207942

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 2.5
defensive · SOLO: 13
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.5
defensive · TOT: 24

Kamren Washington · DL

CFBD athlete 4879531

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.0
defensive · TOT: 9

Kedrick Walker · LB

CFBD athlete 5295775

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 4
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 21
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 28
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Kyland Reed · LB

CFBD athlete 5149009

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 26
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 5
defensive · TOT: 33
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Kyler Beaty · CB

CFBD athlete 5156852

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Kyler Jordan · DE

CFBD athlete 4782658

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 11

Levar Thornton Jr. · CB

CFBD athlete 5078158

defensive · PD: 7
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 18
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 23

London Smith · WR

CFBD athlete 5159048

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Louis Brown · WR

CFBD athlete 4896389

receiving · LONG: 51
receiving · REC: 22
receiving · TD: 3
receiving · YDS: 345
receiving · YPR: 15.7

Matthew Klopfenstein · TE

CFBD athlete 4921305

receiving · LONG: 11
receiving · REC: 6
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 37
receiving · YPR: 6.2

Micah Gifford · S

CFBD athlete 4917621

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 28
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.0
defensive · TOT: 42
interceptions · AVG: 14.3
interceptions · INT: 3
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 43

Michael Allen · S

CFBD athlete 5081784

fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1
kickReturns · AVG: 27.0
kickReturns · LONG: 27
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 27

Michael Turner · RB

CFBD athlete 5295724

receiving · LONG: 10
receiving · REC: 7
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 35
receiving · YPR: 5.0
rushing · CAR: 49
rushing · LONG: 25
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 202
rushing · YPC: 4.1

Nate Bennett · QB

CFBD athlete 5145459

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 61
passing · COMPLETIONS: 46
passing · INT: 2
passing · PCT: 0.754
passing · TD: 5
passing · YDS: 568
passing · YPA: 9.3
rushing · CAR: 6
rushing · LONG: 25
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 15
rushing · YPC: 2.5

Nate Kibble · OL

CFBD athlete 5079553

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Palmer Williams · P

CFBD athlete 5078459

punting · In 20: 11
punting · LONG: 72
punting · NO: 31
punting · TB: 7
punting · YDS: 1519
punting · YPP: 49.0

Parker Almanza · TE

CFBD athlete 5268748

receiving · LONG: 12
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 12
receiving · YPR: 12.0

Reggie Bush · CB

CFBD athlete 4877626

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 11
interceptions · AVG: -2.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: -2

Rhett Armstrong · PK

CFBD athlete 5222130

kicking · FGA: 21
kicking · FGM: 15
kicking · LONG: 54
kicking · PCT: 0.714
kicking · PTS: 71
kicking · XPA: 27
kicking · XPM: 26

Ryan Davis · DE

CFBD athlete 5084043

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 3.0
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.5
defensive · TOT: 16
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Ryelan Morris · RB

CFBD athlete 5159106

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 19.0
kickReturns · LONG: 19
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 19
receiving · LONG: 21
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 26
receiving · YPR: 5.2
rushing · CAR: 45
rushing · LONG: 63
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 295
rushing · YPC: 6.6

Stilton McKelvey · CB

CFBD athlete 5295463

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Taz Williams Jr. · WR

CFBD athlete 5295733

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 18
receiving · REC: 6
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 62
receiving · YPR: 10.3

Tony Livingston · TE

CFBD athlete 5121893

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 27
receiving · REC: 12
receiving · TD: 3
receiving · YDS: 132
receiving · YPR: 11.0

Traevon Mitchell · DL

CFBD athlete 5296021

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 3.0
defensive · SOLO: 12
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 7.5
defensive · TOT: 16

Travion Barnes · LB

CFBD athlete 5219851

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 39
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.5
defensive · TOT: 54

Trent Thomas · DE

CFBD athlete 5076050

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Tyler Turner · S

CFBD athlete 4914227

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 11
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 20

Zavion Hardy · DE

CFBD athlete 5294283

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.0
defensive · TOT: 9

Pregame weather

Decision-time forecast unavailable

No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.

Weather context

Weather record unavailable

Evidence cutoff: 2026-10-26T04:30:00+00:00. This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.

No matching weather context has been published for this game.

Verified pregame availability: Unavailable
Measurement units: Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
Forecast issue time: Unavailable
Forecast valid time: Unavailable

Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.

Latest published card · In-season model

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.

Pick at comparison line

Baylor -10

EPA-OLS history for 7-14 point gaps: 46% against the spread · below the 52.4% break-even at −110 · 97 games · 2025 · historical reference, not a cover probability.

CFBD median · DraftKings quote matches

EPA-OLS forecast · margin in points

Baylor by 17.34

7.34 points toward Baylor versus the spread. The gap is not a cover probability.

Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast

Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately

Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward Baylor.

Net EPA rating difference: +13.34
Fitted offset: +5.20
Fitted home field: -1.20

Reconciles to 17.34 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.

Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.

Fit c4bb7cb5f7676bad6ca935c9ad6de236fbdb43b95c02a90800020598436e58af · inputs 37a93b64ec09dcb99171b6a8f1c59f7d4cff324950fc07f37a2f2cf3f9e253d4 · training 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51 · forecast c94e007c7b6b96a836583c887a5f4c156d7b0adf3b16060676187a5b6f1f8e57 · through week 9.

What changed?

7 saved cards for this game

Earlier saved card

No change in spread, forecast or model gap.

The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.

Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.

Home team: Baylor · all values in points
Recorded value	Earlier	Latest
Market spread	-10.0	-10.0
Model spread	-17.34	-17.34
Model gap	+7.34	+7.34

Negative spreads favor Baylor; positive model gap favors them too.

Capture times & sources

Earlier saved card

Generated Nov 5, 2026, 06:12:24 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Nov 5, 2026, 06:02:35 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Latest published card

Generated Nov 6, 2026, 06:12:29 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Model gap = market spread minus model spread.

This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.

Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.

Earlier saved card SHA-256: 09ae362bba85693dce95202484e390b841fbdf36d21ea093fee4dd02276f20a9
Odds source SHA-256: 1191efda55b02705391f90dc98ac55459f647f2300778ae80eca48d727f2d3cf
Latest published card SHA-256: 1cb82609908ef20168d6821e20ce6db6dd11891a77105bc3ac9b18df06cadb8b
Odds source SHA-256: d0dba70812098c221b0c8c478c2238c95459bef99e39ca41d677e1f30597fc3c

View recorded snapshot data

Model context & pick method

Card generated Nov 6, 2026, 06:12:29 CST. Captured prices are not live quotes.

Output:: Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
Model:: EPA-OLS
Training:: 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9; 285 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Features:: EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 37a93b64ec09dcb99171b6a8f1c59f7d4cff324950fc07f37a2f2cf3f9e253d4. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Evaluation:: EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.

Training: 285 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.

Training-only RMSE: 15.77 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.

Margins are not projected scores.

Pick logic

Baylor -10

Model gap +7.3 points

A pick needs a gap of at least 3.0 points, either way. Positive gaps favor Baylor.

Win probabilities · separate sources

Baylor win probability by source

EPA-OLS calibrated win probability: Unavailable; Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
CFBD market-based probability: 76%; Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:01:15 CST; CFBD source spread: Baylor -10
Stacked ensemble: 81%; Stacked ensemble from the model pack

Explain this StackedEnsemble probability

Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.

Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward Baylor.

home adjusted success allowed: +7.94 (path difference 3.83)
home elo: +7.54 (path difference 11.60)
home adjusted passing epa allowed: +7.04 (path difference 5.25)
home adjusted rushing epa allowed: +6.89 (path difference 8.09)
home adjusted second level yards: +6.82 (path difference 3.51)
home adjusted epa allowed: -6.45 (path difference 5.45)
home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +4.63 (path difference 1.08)
home adjusted explosiveness: +3.29 (path difference 2.14)
home adjusted open field yards allowed: +2.97 (path difference 1.60)
away elo: +2.62 (path difference 1.70)
home adjusted passing down success allowed: -2.55 (path difference 0.77)
away adjusted success allowed: +2.20 (path difference 1.64)
home adjusted rushing epa: -2.15 (path difference 1.87)
home talent: +2.06 (path difference 1.68)
home adjusted epa: +1.89 (path difference 2.33)
away adjusted explosiveness: +1.71 (path difference 1.96)
away talent: -1.66 (path difference 0.64)
away adjusted line yards allowed: +1.63 (path difference 1.19)
home adjusted success: -1.60 (path difference 0.61)
away adjusted epa: +1.49 (path difference 1.79)
away adjusted success: -1.28 (path difference 0.59)
away adjusted rushing epa: +1.21 (path difference 1.01)
away adjusted second level yards allowed: +1.20 (path difference 0.90)
home adjusted line yards: -1.09 (path difference 0.42)
home adjusted standard down success allowed: -1.05 (path difference 0.37)
away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +1.04 (path difference 0.20)
home adjusted passing epa: +1.04 (path difference 2.27)
home adjusted standard down success: -1.00 (path difference 0.35)
away adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.94 (path difference 1.14)
home adjusted second level yards allowed: +0.93 (path difference 1.42)
away adjusted second level yards: -0.89 (path difference 0.30)
away adjusted passing down success allowed: -0.87 (path difference 0.28)
away adjusted passing down success: -0.87 (path difference 0.08)
away adjusted passing epa: +0.86 (path difference 0.19)
week: -0.84 (path difference 0.94)
away adjusted line yards: -0.84 (path difference 2.01)
away adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.76 (path difference 0.92)
home adjusted passing down success: -0.74 (path difference 0.56)
away adjusted standard down success allowed: +0.71 (path difference 0.40)
home adjusted open field yards: -0.63 (path difference 0.79)
home conference: -0.47 (path difference 0.28)
away adjusted open field yards: +0.36 (path difference 0.36)
away adjusted epa allowed: +0.34 (path difference 0.56)
home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: -0.29 (path difference 0.09)
away adjusted rushing epa allowed: +0.24 (path difference 0.29)
away adjusted open field yards allowed: +0.21 (path difference 0.21)
away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: -0.17 (path difference 0.51)
home adjusted pass explosiveness: -0.16 (path difference 0.34)
away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +0.14 (path difference 0.06)
away adjusted standard down success: +0.13 (path difference 0.04)
home adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.11 (path difference 1.73)
away conference: +0.11 (path difference 0.89)
home adjusted line yards allowed: +0.09 (path difference 0.75)
home adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.04 (path difference 0.02)
away adjusted passing epa allowed: +0.02 (path difference 0.15)

Reconciles to 80.77 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.

Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.

Fit e302459ca56c4f194361bcc0ad952fb75b35a71b9ff0feaf8dede9dc1265ad90 · inputs dd5ffa0ec4064e28b8cfac21725f9665bc3575564fba3c5127b9668c6583c983 · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast 1709a4ceeede9f2f5513981e953ce30abe49c28ddd353bffcb9132871a43b71a · through week 9.

Output:: Home win probability (%), display only
Model:: StackedEnsemble
Training:: Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
Features:: Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Evaluation:: Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record

The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.

Rushing workload · last three team games

CFBD individually attributed rushing attempts, including attributed sacks. Captured before kickoff; descriptive context, separate from the forecast. Through 2026-11-06 UTC.

Iowa State

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 102 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Aiden Flora CFBD athlete 5219258 Week 6 vs BYU: 17 attempts · 5.1 YPC · 35.3% success · -0.068 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Arizona: 12 attempts · 3.0 YPC · 16.7% success · -0.311 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Oklahoma State: 29 attempts · 7.6 YPC · 34.5% success · 0.180 raw PPA.	58	5.9	0	56.9%	131 / 7.2
Jaylen Raynor CFBD athlete 5080403 Week 6 vs BYU: 9 attempts · 1.6 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.118 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Arizona: 4 attempts · -5.2 YPC · 0.0% success · -2.149 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Oklahoma State: 12 attempts · 4.0 YPC · 54.5% success · 0.544 raw PPA.	25	1.6	5	24.5%	66 / 2.9
Connor Moberly CFBD athlete 5140620 Week 8 vs Arizona: 10 attempts · 2.0 YPC · 57.1% success · 0.541 raw PPA.	10	2.0	3	9.8%	18 / 2.4
Arnold Barnes CFBD athlete 5110516 Week 6 vs BYU: 1 attempts · 2.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.277 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Arizona: 2 attempts · 5.0 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.104 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Oklahoma State: 1 attempts · 2.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.656 raw PPA.	4	3.5	0	3.9%	27 / 3.7
Ryver Peppers CFBD athlete 5203478 Week 8 vs Arizona: 2 attempts · 3.0 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.382 raw PPA.	2	3.0	0	2.0%	10 / 3.5

Baylor

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 108 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
D.J. Lagway CFBD athlete 5079555 Week 7 vs TCU: 6 attempts · -4.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.367 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Kansas: 11 attempts · 4.3 YPC · 55.6% success · 0.220 raw PPA. Week 9 vs UCF: 11 attempts · 2.1 YPC · 37.5% success · -0.195 raw PPA.	28	1.6	9	25.9%	36 / 1.0
Caden Knighten CFBD athlete 5295723 Week 7 vs TCU: 10 attempts · 3.5 YPC · 30.0% success · -0.147 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Kansas: 7 attempts · 3.6 YPC · 14.3% success · 0.057 raw PPA. Week 9 vs UCF: 6 attempts · 4.8 YPC · 33.3% success · 0.136 raw PPA.	23	3.9	0	21.3%	72 / 4.6
Ryelan Morris CFBD athlete 5159106 Week 7 vs TCU: 8 attempts · 3.1 YPC · 25.0% success · -0.883 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Kansas: 3 attempts · 3.3 YPC · 66.7% success · -0.076 raw PPA. Week 9 vs UCF: 11 attempts · 7.5 YPC · 54.5% success · 0.044 raw PPA.	22	5.3	0	20.4%	44 / 6.8
Michael Turner CFBD athlete 5295724 Week 8 vs Kansas: 9 attempts · 4.4 YPC · 44.4% success · 0.060 raw PPA. Week 9 vs UCF: 12 attempts · 3.4 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.140 raw PPA.	21	3.9	0	19.4%	47 / 4.2
Dawson Pendergrass CFBD athlete 4921517 Week 7 vs TCU: 9 attempts · 1.2 YPC · 11.1% success · -0.349 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Kansas: 4 attempts · 1.0 YPC · 25.0% success · 0.372 raw PPA. Week 9 vs UCF: 1 attempts · 7.0 YPC · 0.0% success · 0.470 raw PPA.	14	1.6	0	13.0%	94 / 3.6

Team-only and unresolved attempts are outside this player population. Game PPA and success rates retain provider denominators; they are not pooled across games. Missing appearances do not establish player availability. This three-game window is separate from the 100-play form window.

Team matchup statistics

Offense vs defense

2026 season to date · through Week 9, captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.

Measure	BaylorOffense	Iowa StateDefense	Iowa StateOffense	BaylorDefense
PPA/play	+0.12 45th	+0.15 20th	+0.12 49th	-0.10 98th
Success rate	38.7% 18th	43.5% 23rd	39.0% 20th	34.2% 93rd
Explosiveness	1.37 95th	1.26 35th	1.34 89th	1.16 74th
Standard-down PPA/play	-0.02 18th	+0.12 16th	+0.07 44th	-0.12 89th
Passing-down PPA/play	+0.36 76th	+0.22 38th	+0.23 49th	-0.07 95th
Havoc allowed / created	14.7% 51st	15.2% 41st	17.3% 16th	20.8% 96th

Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.

CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR

Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions

Preview captured Nov 6, 2026, 6:15:59 AM CST · assembled Nov 6, 2026, 6:15:59 AM CST

Checking current kickoff time before showing captured pregame metrics.

2026 kicker PAAR

Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Nov 6, 2026, 6:15:45 AM CST.

Kyle Konrardy · Iowa State · PAAR 5.25 · 13 attempts
Rhett Armstrong · Baylor · PAAR -0.38 · 21 attempts

Player recent form

CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.

Checking kickoff before showing recent player metrics.

Captured line movement

Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Nov 6, 2026, 14:39:19 CST · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.

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Line history & team context

Card snapshot lines

Baylor spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.

DraftKings

CFBD-reported opening: -9.5 · Snapshot spread: -10

First locally observed: -9.5 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…

Observation evidence