Virginia Tech at SMU
Kickoff Nov 6, 2026, 18:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +6.17 pts · Ridge minus primary +4.05 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin +10.22 pts
Model Training Pack
Model comparisons
The licensed CFBD Model Training Pack: 4,520 games, 86 columns, 72 usable features, 2016–2024 (Week 5 onward). Feature importances below are read from the pack's own fitted artifacts — not re-trained here.
Weekly recipe comparisons
Ridge predicts Home Margin in points. Positive favors home. This saved-fit comparison does not change primary recommendations or estimate win probabilities.
Saved 2026 Week 10 · 47 eligible upcoming games · 15 excluded
Generated Nov 6, 2026, 06:26:24 CST. Reported input cutoff: Week 9; captured Nov 4, 2026, 01:06:38 CST. Provider publication time unknown.
Matched primary forecasts: 47 of 47. EPA-OLS, generated Nov 6, 2026, 06:12:29 CST.
South Florida at East Carolina
Kickoff Nov 6, 2026, 18:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +2.58 pts · Ridge minus primary -7.56 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin -4.98 pts
Nebraska at Illinois
Kickoff Nov 6, 2026, 19:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin -8.47 pts · Ridge minus primary +0.77 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin -7.70 pts
New Mexico at Nevada
Kickoff Nov 6, 2026, 20:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin -6.30 pts · Ridge minus primary -3.07 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin -9.37 pts
TCU at Arizona
Kickoff Nov 6, 2026, 21:15:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +9.41 pts · Ridge minus primary +0.43 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin +9.84 pts
North Carolina at UConn
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 11:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +1.42 pts · Ridge minus primary -1.82 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin -0.40 pts
Florida State at Boston College
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 11:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +1.48 pts · Ridge minus primary -8.24 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin -6.76 pts
BYU at Utah
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 11:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +8.92 pts · Ridge minus primary +2.33 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin +11.25 pts
Tulsa at Tulane
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 11:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +0.05 pts · Ridge minus primary +5.46 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin +5.51 pts
Texas at Missouri
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 11:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +4.20 pts · Ridge minus primary -7.12 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin -2.92 pts
Clemson at Syracuse
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 11:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +1.49 pts · Ridge minus primary -8.53 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin -7.04 pts
Duke at NC State
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 11:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin -9.60 pts · Ridge minus primary +0.89 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin -8.71 pts
Maryland at Purdue
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 11:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +10.27 pts · Ridge minus primary -3.37 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin +6.90 pts
Arkansas at Auburn
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 11:45:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +13.61 pts · Ridge minus primary -3.22 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin +10.39 pts
Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 12:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +11.54 pts · Ridge minus primary -3.63 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin +7.91 pts
Georgia State at App State
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 13:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin -1.74 pts · Ridge minus primary -0.05 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin -1.79 pts
Texas A&M at South Carolina
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 14:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +9.31 pts · Ridge minus primary -4.80 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin +4.51 pts
UL Monroe at Arkansas State
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 14:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +15.86 pts · Ridge minus primary -0.77 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin +15.09 pts
Delaware at Kennesaw State
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 14:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +5.42 pts · Ridge minus primary -6.04 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin -0.62 pts
Oregon at Ohio State
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 14:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +13.94 pts · Ridge minus primary -0.96 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin +12.98 pts
Charlotte at UAB
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 14:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +12.42 pts · Ridge minus primary +0.98 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin +13.40 pts
Alabama at LSU
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 14:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +5.53 pts · Ridge minus primary -1.98 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin +3.55 pts
Temple at Navy
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 14:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +7.17 pts · Ridge minus primary -2.50 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin +4.67 pts
Marshall at Georgia Southern
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 14:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +13.70 pts · Ridge minus primary -6.97 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin +6.73 pts
Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 14:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +7.41 pts · Ridge minus primary -8.71 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin -1.30 pts
UCF at Kansas
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 14:45:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +7.17 pts · Ridge minus primary +1.28 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin +8.45 pts
Louisiana Tech at Troy
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 15:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin -7.17 pts · Ridge minus primary +1.73 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin -5.44 pts
Rice at North Texas
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 15:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +18.06 pts · Ridge minus primary +4.10 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin +22.16 pts
Northern Illinois at San José State
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 15:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +15.46 pts · Ridge minus primary -1.85 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin +13.61 pts
Missouri State at Florida International
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 15:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +12.82 pts · Ridge minus primary -4.69 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin +8.13 pts
Vanderbilt at Mississippi State
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 15:15:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +12.68 pts · Ridge minus primary -7.33 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin +5.35 pts
South Alabama at Louisiana
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 16:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +13.16 pts · Ridge minus primary -3.27 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin +9.89 pts
Boise State at Colorado State
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 17:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin -16.30 pts · Ridge minus primary -5.08 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin -21.38 pts
Kentucky at Tennessee
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 17:15:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +4.30 pts · Ridge minus primary +4.97 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin +9.27 pts
Sam Houston at Jacksonville State
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 18:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +17.60 pts · Ridge minus primary +0.56 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin +18.16 pts
Georgia at Ole Miss
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 18:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +3.04 pts · Ridge minus primary -2.38 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin +0.66 pts
Louisville at Georgia Tech
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 18:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin -12.20 pts · Ridge minus primary -1.28 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin -13.48 pts
Air Force at Army
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 18:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +3.31 pts · Ridge minus primary +0.66 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin +3.97 pts
Colorado at Arizona State
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 18:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +1.71 pts · Ridge minus primary +4.53 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin +6.24 pts
Miami at Notre Dame
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 18:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +8.02 pts · Ridge minus primary +0.24 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin +8.26 pts
Oklahoma at Florida
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 18:45:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +6.25 pts · Ridge minus primary -4.16 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin +2.09 pts
Liberty at New Mexico State
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 19:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin -17.01 pts · Ridge minus primary -8.08 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin -25.09 pts
Hawai'i at UTEP
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 20:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin -4.08 pts · Ridge minus primary -9.73 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin -13.81 pts
West Virginia at Texas Tech
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 20:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +18.47 pts · Ridge minus primary +3.25 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin +21.72 pts
Fresno State at Utah State
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 20:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +0.75 pts · Ridge minus primary -8.56 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin -7.81 pts
Wyoming at UNLV
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 21:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +6.87 pts · Ridge minus primary +0.85 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin +7.72 pts
Texas State at Oregon State
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 21:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +7.69 pts · Ridge minus primary -3.69 pts
Explain this Ridge forecastHome Margin +4.00 pts
Excluded games
- 401862817: game started or completed
- 401858513: kickoff identity unverified
- 401866454: game started or completed
- 401866456: game started or completed
- 401866457: game started or completed
- 401858511: kickoff identity unverified
- 401856851: kickoff identity unverified
- 401856853: kickoff identity unverified
- 401856854: kickoff identity unverified
- 401866455: game started or completed
- 401858516: kickoff identity unverified
- 401858512: kickoff identity unverified
- 401866453: game started or completed
- 401869964: game started or completed
- 401858517: kickoff identity unverified
Retrospective 2024 confirmation · 604 games
| Metric (points) | Result | 95% block interval |
|---|---|---|
| MAE | 12.46 | 12.01 to 13.07 |
| RMSE | 15.58 | 14.90 to 16.33 |
| BIAS | -0.64 | -1.88 to 0.51 |
Previously inspected season; source publication times unknown. Original training-target defect retained. Not prospective or betting evidence. Intervals use 13 season/type/week blocks; they do not guarantee future performance.
Historical head-to-head accuracy is unavailable without a verified matched primary forecast artifact. These are Ridge-only errors.
Historical Ridge output · 2026 Week 10
Retained history, not current predictions. Generated Nov 5, 2026, 06:21:03 CST; cutoff Week 9.
North Carolina at UConn: Home Margin -0.40 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.78
- Away talent
- -2.13
- Home Elo
- -1.49
- Away Elo
- +0.76
- Home adjusted EPA
- -0.83
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +0.66
- Away adjusted EPA
- +0.68
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -1.69
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -0.40 points.
Florida State at Boston College: Home Margin -6.76 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.84
- Away talent
- -2.45
- Home Elo
- -5.18
- Away Elo
- -1.60
- Home adjusted EPA
- -3.50
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +2.27
- Away adjusted EPA
- +0.37
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -0.37
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -6.76 points.
Hawai'i at UTEP: Home Margin -13.81 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.16
- Away talent
- +0.01
- Home Elo
- -16.51
- Away Elo
- +2.57
- Home adjusted EPA
- -4.75
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- -1.55
- Away adjusted EPA
- +2.73
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- +0.68
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -13.81 points.
UTSA at Florida Atlantic: Home Margin -11.21 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.23
- Away talent
- -0.99
- Home Elo
- -8.47
- Away Elo
- -1.95
- Home adjusted EPA
- -0.91
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- -1.33
- Away adjusted EPA
- +0.32
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -0.97
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -11.21 points.
South Florida at East Carolina: Home Margin -4.98 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.51
- Away talent
- -1.48
- Home Elo
- -2.67
- Away Elo
- -3.27
- Home adjusted EPA
- -3.35
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.97
- Away adjusted EPA
- +3.41
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -2.95
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -4.98 points.
Vanderbilt at Mississippi State: Home Margin +5.35 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +2.18
- Away talent
- -1.72
- Home Elo
- -0.05
- Away Elo
- -0.72
- Home adjusted EPA
- -0.46
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.13
- Away adjusted EPA
- +2.79
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -0.66
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +5.35 points.
Kentucky at Tennessee: Home Margin +9.27 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +2.94
- Away talent
- -2.32
- Home Elo
- +9.60
- Away Elo
- -3.17
- Home adjusted EPA
- -1.22
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +3.83
- Away adjusted EPA
- +0.04
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -3.28
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +9.27 points.
Nebraska at Illinois: Home Margin -7.70 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +1.25
- Away talent
- -2.33
- Home Elo
- +1.43
- Away Elo
- -6.22
- Home adjusted EPA
- +0.09
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- -1.63
- Away adjusted EPA
- +0.16
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -3.31
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -7.70 points.
Oregon at Ohio State: Home Margin +12.98 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +3.66
- Away talent
- -4.32
- Home Elo
- +15.54
- Away Elo
- -7.49
- Home adjusted EPA
- +0.83
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +3.74
- Away adjusted EPA
- +2.22
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -4.06
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +12.98 points.
Charlotte at UAB: Home Margin +13.40 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.35
- Away talent
- -0.19
- Home Elo
- -4.74
- Away Elo
- +12.44
- Home adjusted EPA
- -3.59
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +2.16
- Away adjusted EPA
- +4.01
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- +0.13
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +13.40 points.
Georgia at Ole Miss: Home Margin +0.66 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +2.93
- Away talent
- -4.52
- Home Elo
- +14.10
- Away Elo
- -13.86
- Home adjusted EPA
- +1.41
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.57
- Away adjusted EPA
- -0.89
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -2.95
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +0.66 points.
Georgia State at App State: Home Margin -1.79 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.49
- Away talent
- -0.16
- Home Elo
- -7.53
- Away Elo
- +4.79
- Home adjusted EPA
- -2.41
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +0.56
- Away adjusted EPA
- +0.94
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -1.33
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -1.79 points.
Louisiana Tech at Troy: Home Margin -5.44 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.25
- Away talent
- +0.15
- Home Elo
- -5.27
- Away Elo
- +1.05
- Home adjusted EPA
- -3.29
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.18
- Away adjusted EPA
- +1.54
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -3.92
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -5.44 points.
TCU at Arizona: Home Margin +9.84 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +1.21
- Away talent
- -1.75
- Home Elo
- +8.69
- Away Elo
- -2.48
- Home adjusted EPA
- +0.15
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +2.86
- Away adjusted EPA
- +3.11
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -4.79
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +9.84 points.
Oklahoma at Florida: Home Margin +2.09 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +2.98
- Away talent
- -2.97
- Home Elo
- +3.34
- Away Elo
- -4.28
- Home adjusted EPA
- +0.40
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.92
- Away adjusted EPA
- +2.74
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -4.89
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +2.09 points.
BYU at Utah: Home Margin +11.25 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +1.18
- Away talent
- -1.33
- Home Elo
- +12.41
- Away Elo
- -5.05
- Home adjusted EPA
- +0.07
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +3.39
- Away adjusted EPA
- +0.19
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -2.47
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +11.25 points.
West Virginia at Texas Tech: Home Margin +21.72 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +1.84
- Away talent
- -1.52
- Home Elo
- +9.81
- Away Elo
- +3.89
- Home adjusted EPA
- -0.82
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +2.89
- Away adjusted EPA
- +0.93
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.84
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +21.72 points.
UCF at Kansas: Home Margin +8.45 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +1.07
- Away talent
- -1.16
- Home Elo
- +2.05
- Away Elo
- +2.94
- Home adjusted EPA
- -1.20
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.92
- Away adjusted EPA
- +2.14
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -2.17
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +8.45 points.
Wyoming at UNLV: Home Margin +7.72 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +1.18
- Away talent
- +0.30
- Home Elo
- -1.42
- Away Elo
- +4.03
- Home adjusted EPA
- -2.26
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.31
- Away adjusted EPA
- +1.76
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -0.02
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +7.72 points.
Texas A&M at South Carolina: Home Margin +4.51 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +2.72
- Away talent
- -3.80
- Home Elo
- +6.97
- Away Elo
- -5.66
- Home adjusted EPA
- +1.09
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.07
- Away adjusted EPA
- +2.52
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -3.25
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +4.51 points.
Louisville at Georgia Tech: Home Margin -13.48 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +1.69
- Away talent
- -1.84
- Home Elo
- -4.65
- Away Elo
- -5.61
- Home adjusted EPA
- -1.81
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- -0.61
- Away adjusted EPA
- -0.74
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -2.76
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -13.48 points.
Arkansas at Auburn: Home Margin +10.39 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +2.40
- Away talent
- -1.90
- Home Elo
- +3.02
- Away Elo
- +0.97
- Home adjusted EPA
- -1.00
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +2.10
- Away adjusted EPA
- +2.29
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -0.35
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +10.39 points.
Tulsa at Tulane: Home Margin +5.51 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.89
- Away talent
- -0.66
- Home Elo
- -1.55
- Away Elo
- +5.72
- Home adjusted EPA
- -2.28
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.33
- Away adjusted EPA
- +1.19
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -1.99
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +5.51 points.
Sam Houston at Jacksonville State: Home Margin +18.16 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.32
- Away talent
- +0.04
- Home Elo
- -1.55
- Away Elo
- +11.99
- Home adjusted EPA
- -1.02
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +0.92
- Away adjusted EPA
- +5.07
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -0.44
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +18.16 points.
Air Force at Army: Home Margin +3.97 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- -2.45
- Away talent
- +2.90
- Home Elo
- -0.48
- Away Elo
- +1.48
- Home adjusted EPA
- +0.92
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- -1.24
- Away adjusted EPA
- +0.48
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -0.47
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +3.97 points.
Texas State at Oregon State: Home Margin +4.00 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.62
- Away talent
- -0.68
- Home Elo
- +1.74
- Away Elo
- -1.44
- Home adjusted EPA
- +0.44
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.08
- Away adjusted EPA
- +0.05
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -0.66
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +4.00 points.
Texas at Missouri: Home Margin -2.92 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +2.22
- Away talent
- -4.33
- Home Elo
- +8.19
- Away Elo
- -11.18
- Home adjusted EPA
- -0.61
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +3.06
- Away adjusted EPA
- +1.69
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -4.81
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -2.92 points.
James Madison at Southern Miss: Home Margin -19.56 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.31
- Away talent
- -0.31
- Home Elo
- -9.65
- Away Elo
- -6.96
- Home adjusted EPA
- -3.89
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +0.08
- Away adjusted EPA
- +0.45
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -2.44
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -19.56 points.
New Mexico at Nevada: Home Margin -9.37 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- -0.17
- Away talent
- -0.10
- Home Elo
- -3.58
- Away Elo
- -4.04
- Home adjusted EPA
- -2.39
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +0.75
- Away adjusted EPA
- +1.73
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -4.41
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -9.37 points.
Clemson at Syracuse: Home Margin -7.04 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +1.64
- Away talent
- -3.09
- Home Elo
- -5.87
- Away Elo
- -1.36
- Home adjusted EPA
- -2.77
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +0.78
- Away adjusted EPA
- +3.84
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -3.06
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -7.04 points.
Duke at NC State: Home Margin -8.71 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +1.74
- Away talent
- -1.12
- Home Elo
- -0.95
- Away Elo
- -6.09
- Home adjusted EPA
- -1.86
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- -0.27
- Away adjusted EPA
- +1.04
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -4.06
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -8.71 points.
Alabama at LSU: Home Margin +3.55 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +3.36
- Away talent
- -4.21
- Home Elo
- +13.16
- Away Elo
- -11.26
- Home adjusted EPA
- +1.51
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +4.05
- Away adjusted EPA
- -1.26
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -4.67
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +3.55 points.
Virginia Tech at SMU: Home Margin +10.22 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +1.81
- Away talent
- -2.14
- Home Elo
- +7.19
- Away Elo
- -0.03
- Home adjusted EPA
- -0.28
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +0.55
- Away adjusted EPA
- +0.42
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -0.14
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +10.22 points.
Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina: Home Margin +7.91 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.05
- Away talent
- +0.14
- Home Elo
- -6.68
- Away Elo
- +9.44
- Home adjusted EPA
- -1.90
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +0.51
- Away adjusted EPA
- +6.55
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -3.04
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +7.91 points.
Temple at Navy: Home Margin +4.67 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- -3.45
- Away talent
- -0.74
- Home Elo
- -0.83
- Away Elo
- +5.86
- Home adjusted EPA
- -0.77
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +0.55
- Away adjusted EPA
- +0.61
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- +0.60
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +4.67 points.
UL Monroe at Arkansas State: Home Margin +15.09 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.35
- Away talent
- +0.53
- Home Elo
- -5.99
- Away Elo
- +13.15
- Home adjusted EPA
- -0.90
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- -0.08
- Away adjusted EPA
- +4.09
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.10
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +15.09 points.
Delaware at Kennesaw State: Home Margin -0.62 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- -0.61
- Away talent
- +0.76
- Home Elo
- -7.18
- Away Elo
- +3.23
- Home adjusted EPA
- -2.63
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +0.88
- Away adjusted EPA
- +2.18
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -0.09
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -0.62 points.
Marshall at Georgia Southern: Home Margin +6.73 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.61
- Away talent
- -0.37
- Home Elo
- -3.77
- Away Elo
- +3.92
- Home adjusted EPA
- -0.89
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.36
- Away adjusted EPA
- +2.54
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- +0.49
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +6.73 points.
South Alabama at Louisiana: Home Margin +9.89 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.21
- Away talent
- -0.16
- Home Elo
- -0.89
- Away Elo
- +4.93
- Home adjusted EPA
- -1.88
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +2.73
- Away adjusted EPA
- +0.80
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.29
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +9.89 points.
Colorado at Arizona State: Home Margin +6.24 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +1.42
- Away talent
- -1.76
- Home Elo
- -1.52
- Away Elo
- +6.47
- Home adjusted EPA
- -3.52
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.79
- Away adjusted EPA
- +3.08
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -2.57
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +6.24 points.
Maryland at Purdue: Home Margin +6.90 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +1.20
- Away talent
- -1.64
- Home Elo
- -3.05
- Away Elo
- +5.54
- Home adjusted EPA
- -0.42
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- -0.54
- Away adjusted EPA
- +3.63
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -0.68
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +6.90 points.
Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee: Home Margin -1.30 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.03
- Away talent
- -0.54
- Home Elo
- -11.88
- Away Elo
- +7.10
- Home adjusted EPA
- -2.82
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- -0.15
- Away adjusted EPA
- +4.02
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- +0.09
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -1.30 points.
Rice at North Texas: Home Margin +22.16 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.31
- Away talent
- -0.32
- Home Elo
- +4.37
- Away Elo
- +10.23
- Home adjusted EPA
- +0.95
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.09
- Away adjusted EPA
- +3.06
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -0.38
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +22.16 points.
Northern Illinois at San José State: Home Margin +13.61 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.00
- Away talent
- +0.22
- Home Elo
- -4.93
- Away Elo
- +11.61
- Home adjusted EPA
- -2.88
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.94
- Away adjusted EPA
- +3.28
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.51
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +13.61 points.
Missouri State at Florida International: Home Margin +8.13 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.36
- Away talent
- +0.08
- Home Elo
- -5.80
- Away Elo
- +7.61
- Home adjusted EPA
- -3.50
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.60
- Away adjusted EPA
- +3.01
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.92
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +8.13 points.
Boise State at Colorado State: Home Margin -21.38 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.66
- Away talent
- -0.84
- Home Elo
- -11.60
- Away Elo
- -5.29
- Home adjusted EPA
- -0.38
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- -2.29
- Away adjusted EPA
- -2.28
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -2.22
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -21.38 points.
Miami at Notre Dame: Home Margin +8.26 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +3.56
- Away talent
- -3.32
- Home Elo
- +17.23
- Away Elo
- -12.69
- Home adjusted EPA
- +2.26
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +3.05
- Away adjusted EPA
- -2.53
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -2.14
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +8.26 points.
Liberty at New Mexico State: Home Margin -25.09 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- -1.00
- Away talent
- -0.76
- Home Elo
- -9.90
- Away Elo
- -8.47
- Home adjusted EPA
- -4.49
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.10
- Away adjusted EPA
- -0.98
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -3.42
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -25.09 points.
Fresno State at Utah State: Home Margin -7.81 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- -0.23
- Away talent
- -0.52
- Home Elo
- -4.36
- Away Elo
- -3.88
- Home adjusted EPA
- -3.00
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +2.54
- Away adjusted EPA
- +1.54
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -2.74
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -7.81 points.
Recipe availability and method
Paired RF, standalone XGBoost, corrected FastAI, standalone Logistic and the tutorial stack remain unavailable under their separate holds/evaluation gates. SHAP is an explanation workflow, not another predictive model.
Ridge explanations use independent-feature linear SHAP with all 3,916 pre-2024 training rows as background. They explain the exact evaluated Ridge fit, not causal effects or the separate historical XGBoost margin model below.
Model SHA256: 835eaeeb0c3f24dc70d607cba4db93562ba0791fe0cc5f683e899cba588c9c37
Input SHA256: a09035f00374a43313cbbd7507be0a66eb7f04b0fe7f6217e4aa8c43f4e6f343
Environment SHA256: 6c3fe52c7bb8086d5af62e0e5675d81f796a27fb8fa7a344b62cac0e613d4674
Training dataset
Dataset
Games
4,520
Columns
86
Usable features
72
Seasons
2016–2024 (Week 5 onward)
Opponent-adjusted, no future leakage — each row's stats use games prior to that matchup only.
Model roles
The spread card, displayed win probabilities and training examples have different jobs. Weekly research results do not replace a production model. These roles describe the existing code; each forecast view reports its own availability.
EPA-OLS spread model
Production spread cardProduces the in-season spread card and matchup calculator. Its margin-derived probabilities are separate from the StackedEnsemble.
Target: Home Margin (home points minus away points)
Source and artifact
src/cfb_model_lab/betting.py; ADR-0011
No reviewed standalone artifact catalogued.
SP+
External fallbackExternal comparison and the announced preseason/early-season fallback where supported. It is not a locally trained model or an ensemble probability.
Target: External point ratings and rating-derived margins
Source and artifact
src/cfb_model_lab/picks.py; CONTEXT.md (Engine)
No reviewed standalone artifact catalogued.
Ridge regression
Research onlyNotebook 01 fits Ridge with alpha=1.0. The supplied fitted artifact supplies the coefficient chart below; it does not produce the production spread card.
Target: Margin (away points minus home points)
Source and artifact
model_pack/01_linear_regression_margin.ipynb
model_pack/ridge_model.joblib
Random Forest team scores
Notebook onlyTwo RandomForestRegressors demonstrate team-score prediction. These are distinct from the RandomForestClassifier inside the production-code ensemble. No standalone score artifact is supplied here.
Target: Home points and away points; implied score margin
Source and artifact
model_pack/02_random_forest_team_points.ipynb
No reviewed standalone artifact catalogued.
XGBoost home-win classifier
Research onlyThe supplied standalone classifier supplies the importance chart below. A separately fitted XGBClassifier is also an ensemble component; this artifact does not itself produce the spread card.
Target: Home-win probability
Source and artifact
model_pack/03_xgboost_win_probability.ipynb; src/cfb_model_lab/model.py
model_pack/xgb_home_win_model.pkl
FastAI supplied artifact
Probability unavailableThe legacy artifact is not a probability model. Probability output is unavailable from it. The corrected classification notebook trains separate private research models.
Target: Unbounded home-win regression score
Source and artifact
model_pack/04_fastai_win_probability.ipynb; model_pack/legacy-fastai-requirements.txt
model_pack/fastai_home_win_model.pkl
Logistic regression notebook
Notebook onlyStandalone interpretable classifier tutorial. Logistic regression is separately fitted as an ensemble component and meta-model; no standalone notebook artifact is supplied here.
Target: Home-win probability
Source and artifact
model_pack/05_logistic_regression_win_probability.ipynb; src/cfb_model_lab/model.py
No reviewed standalone artifact catalogued.
StackedEnsemble
Display onlyLogistic regression, RandomForestClassifier and XGBoost feed a logistic stacker. Its displayed win probabilities do not select the EPA spread card. Expanded weekly refits remain research candidates until the promotion gate and owner's decision.
Target: Home-win probability
Source and artifact
src/cfb_model_lab/model.py; scripts/build_ensemble_predictions.py; ADR-0011
public/api/ensemble.json
Huber challenger
Research onlyReported local experiment, not integrated or reproduced by this catalog. No fitted artifact, performance result or production role is claimed.
Target: Research margin experiment
Source and artifact
Owner-reported local research; no reviewed artifact in this checkout
No reviewed standalone artifact catalogued.
Ridge margin model
Ridge — marginIntercept 4.88
away_adjusted_epa_allowed
-25.80
away_adjusted_epa
24.40
home_adjusted_epa
-23.81
home_adjusted_epa_allowed
21.81
home_elo
-0.03
away_elo
0.03
away_talent
0.01
home_talent
-0.01
Coefficients predict training Margin (away points minus home points). Negative Margin favors the home team, opposite the dashboard’s Home Margin. Each coefficient is the change per feature unit; raw magnitudes are not directly comparable across differently scaled features. Faded bars are negative coefficients.
XGBoost win probability model
XGBoost — home win probability
spread
31.4%
away_elo
6.3%
home_talent
6.1%
home_adjusted_epa_allowed
5.9%
home_adjusted_success_allowed
5.8%
home_elo
5.8%
home_adjusted_success
5.8%
away_adjusted_epa_allowed
5.7%
away_adjusted_success_allowed
5.7%
away_adjusted_epa
5.5%
away_adjusted_success
5.5%
away_talent
5.5%
home_adjusted_epa
5.0%
Gain-based importance. Spread alone drives a third of the model.
fastai model
fastai — supplied regression artifact
Original supplied artifact verified with legacy FastAI 2.7.19. It produces unbounded regression scores trained on home_win, not probabilities. The corrected classification tutorial produces separate private research models. Importances not available.
Training notebooks
7 training notebooks
- 01_linear_regression_margin.ipynbRidge Regression — MarginRidge(alpha=1.0)Fast interpretable baseline for score margin. MAE, RMSE, R², actual-vs-predicted scatter.
- 02_random_forest_team_points.ipynbRandom Forest — Team PointsRandomForestRegressorTwo forests predict each team's score; implied margin from the pair.
- 03_xgboost_win_probability.ipynbXGBoost — Win ProbabilityXGBClassifierAccuracy, AUC, log loss, calibration curve. The fitted xgb_home_win_model.pkl.
- 04_fastai_win_probability.ipynbFastAI — Win Probabilityfastai.tabular_learnerCorrected categorical home-win tutorial with CPU training and reload checks. New models remain private research, separate from the supplied regression artifact.
- 05_logistic_regression_win_probability.ipynbLogistic Regression — Win ProbabilityLogisticRegressionInterpretable classifier; coefficient plot shows key drivers.
- 06_shap_interpretability.ipynbSHAP — Margin Explanationsshap.ExplainerExplanation tool, not a forecast model. Shapley values on an XGBoost margin model.
- 07_stacked_ensemble.ipynbStacked EnsembleLogistic + RF + XGB → Logistic stackerStacking meta-model combining three base learners.