Week 10 · 2026
Oklahoma State at Kansas State
Visual game report
Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.
Player production & success
CFBD regular season · through week 9 · observed 2026-11-06 UTC. Captured before kickoff.
Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.
Oklahoma State
Window: 2026-10-31 (reported) · 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-07T18:00:00+00:00.
| Player | Passing | Rushing |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Mestemaker QB 3 games | 52.2% 60 / 115 plays | 42.9% 6 / 14 plays |
| Caleb Hawkins RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 55.0% 33 / 60 plays |
| William Mason RB 2 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 66.7% 4 / 6 plays |
| Tre Page III RB 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 50.0% 2 / 4 plays |
| Broderick Vehrs QB 1 games | 100.0% 2 / 2 plays | 0.0% 0 / 1 plays |
| Ayo Adeyi RB 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 100.0% 2 / 2 plays |
| Wyatt Young WR 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 0.0% 0 / 1 plays |
Traditional season production · 59 players
Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.
Ayo Adeyi · RB
CFBD athlete 4875861
- receiving · LONG
- 10
- receiving · REC
- 4
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 26
- receiving · YPR
- 6.5
- rushing · CAR
- 30
- rushing · LONG
- 25
- rushing · TD
- 1
- rushing · YDS
- 200
- rushing · YPC
- 6.7
Billy Walton III · DE
CFBD athlete 4921273
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.0
- defensive · TOT
- 5
Bobby Deal Jr. · S
CFBD athlete 5390455
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 4
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- puntReturns · AVG
- 14.6
- puntReturns · LONG
- 21
- puntReturns · NO
- 5
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 73
Braylin Presley · RB
CFBD athlete 4702729
- kickReturns · AVG
- 13.5
- kickReturns · LONG
- 21
- kickReturns · NO
- 2
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 27
Braylon Rigsby · DT
CFBD athlete 5078222
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 9
Broderick Vehrs · QB
CFBD athlete 5291690
- passing · ATT
- 8
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 8
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 1.000
- passing · TD
- 1
- passing · YDS
- 61
- passing · YPA
- 7.6
- rushing · CAR
- 4
- rushing · LONG
- 4
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 11
- rushing · YPC
- 2.8
Caleb Hawkins · RB
CFBD athlete 5258016
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- receiving · LONG
- 66
- receiving · REC
- 31
- receiving · TD
- 2
- receiving · YDS
- 353
- receiving · YPR
- 11.4
- rushing · CAR
- 167
- rushing · LONG
- 75
- rushing · TD
- 4
- rushing · YDS
- 906
- rushing · YPC
- 5.4
Cameron Epps · S
CFBD athlete 4715347
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- interceptions · AVG
- 0.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 0
Carson Kolb · TE
CFBD athlete 5228041
- receiving · LONG
- 16
- receiving · REC
- 7
- receiving · TD
- 2
- receiving · YDS
- 58
- receiving · YPR
- 8.3
Chris Barnes · WR
CFBD athlete 5148822
- kickReturns · AVG
- 11.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 22
- kickReturns · NO
- 2
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 22
- receiving · LONG
- 52
- receiving · REC
- 11
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 179
- receiving · YPR
- 16.3
Christian Bodnar · S
CFBD athlete 5162401
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 12
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 19
Cooper Lai · S
CFBD athlete 5151148
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 4
DJ Jackson Jr. · DE
CFBD athlete 5295860
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 3
- defensive · SACKS
- 0.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 4
DeSean Brown · DE
CFBD athlete 4820577
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 7
Donovan Green · TE
CFBD athlete 5086240
- kickReturns · AVG
- 3.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 6
- kickReturns · NO
- 2
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 6
- receiving · LONG
- 17
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 17
- receiving · YPR
- 17.0
Drew Mestemaker · QB
CFBD athlete 5219834
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- fumbles · FUM
- 4
- fumbles · LOST
- 3
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- passing · ATT
- 281
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 184
- passing · INT
- 7
- passing · PCT
- 0.655
- passing · TD
- 25
- passing · YDS
- 2649
- passing · YPA
- 9.4
- rushing · CAR
- 33
- rushing · LONG
- 75
- rushing · TD
- 2
- rushing · YDS
- 166
- rushing · YPC
- 5.0
Enai White · DT
CFBD athlete 4685611
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
Ethan Wesloski · LB
CFBD athlete 4912301
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 3
- defensive · SACKS
- 4.0
- defensive · SOLO
- 31
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 5.0
- defensive · TOT
- 76
Evan Jackson · S
CFBD athlete 5124996
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 15
- defensive · TD
- 1
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 24
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Gunnar Wilson · LB
CFBD athlete 5148708
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
Iman Oates · DT
CFBD athlete 5151161
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
Isaiah Chisom · LB
CFBD athlete 5075914
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 22
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 42
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 0
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- -5
- rushing · YPC
- -5.0
Israel Polk · WR
CFBD athlete 4922992
- receiving · LONG
- 12
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 12
- receiving · YPR
- 12.0
Jabarie Thornton · WR
CFBD athlete 5269143
- receiving · LONG
- 1
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 1
- receiving · YPR
- 1.0
Jack Puckett · LB
CFBD athlete 5332642
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Jaleel Johnson · DE
CFBD athlete 4869314
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 3
- defensive · SACKS
- 2.0
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3.5
- defensive · TOT
- 16
James Williams · DE
CFBD athlete 5159497
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 3
- defensive · SACKS
- 0.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 11
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 4.0
- defensive · TOT
- 19
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Jerry Lawson · DT
CFBD athlete 5152021
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.0
- defensive · TOT
- 14
Justin Bowick · WR
CFBD athlete 5083747
- receiving · LONG
- 52
- receiving · REC
- 41
- receiving · TD
- 9
- receiving · YDS
- 731
- receiving · YPR
- 17.8
KD Jones · RB
CFBD athlete 5207641
- rushing · CAR
- 7
- rushing · LONG
- 25
- rushing · TD
- 1
- rushing · YDS
- 54
- rushing · YPC
- 7.7
Kam Powell · WR
CFBD athlete 5209748
- receiving · LONG
- 6
- receiving · REC
- 3
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 14
- receiving · YPR
- 4.7
Keviyan Huddleston · DE
CFBD athlete 5080244
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 5
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3.5
- defensive · TOT
- 17
Kobi Foreman · CB
CFBD athlete 5141455
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 5
Kollin Lewis · CB
CFBD athlete 5092690
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 11
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 13
LaDainian Fields · CB
CFBD athlete 5156853
- defensive · PD
- 5
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 24
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3.0
- defensive · TOT
- 33
- interceptions · AVG
- 14.0
- interceptions · INT
- 5
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 70
Lachie Pozzobon · P
CFBD athlete 5303188
- punting · In 20
- 4
- punting · LONG
- 47
- punting · NO
- 14
- punting · TB
- 1
- punting · YDS
- 597
- punting · YPP
- 42.6
Landon Dean · DT
CFBD athlete 4715344
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 5
Luke Webb · DT
CFBD athlete 5151556
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 8
Malik Charles · DE
CFBD athlete 5099451
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 3.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3.5
- defensive · TOT
- 15
- interceptions · AVG
- 13.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 13
Markeith Williams · S
CFBD athlete 4685588
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 7
Maurion Horn · CB
CFBD athlete 4685380
- defensive · PD
- 5
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 14
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3
- defensive · TOT
- 23
Miles Coleman · WR
CFBD athlete 5149007
- kickReturns · AVG
- 13.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 21
- kickReturns · NO
- 3
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 39
- puntReturns · AVG
- 14.7
- puntReturns · LONG
- 55
- puntReturns · NO
- 10
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 147
- receiving · LONG
- 48
- receiving · REC
- 25
- receiving · TD
- 2
- receiving · YDS
- 365
- receiving · YPR
- 14.6
Morgan McPhaul · TE
CFBD athlete 5083966
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- receiving · LONG
- 6
- receiving · REC
- 3
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 15
- receiving · YPR
- 5.0
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 1
- rushing · TD
- 1
- rushing · YDS
- 1
- rushing · YPC
- 1.0
Mose Phillips III · S
CFBD athlete 5121895
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 10
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 23
- interceptions · AVG
- 30.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 30
Oscar Hammond · TE
CFBD athlete 5219835
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
- receiving · LONG
- 15
- receiving · REC
- 2
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 22
- receiving · YPR
- 11.0
Quinton Hammonds · S
CFBD athlete 5219841
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 27
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.0
- defensive · TOT
- 55
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Saadiq Clements · DT
CFBD athlete 4918428
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 17
Sam Keltner · PK
CFBD athlete 5219233
- kicking · FGA
- 19
- kicking · FGM
- 18
- kicking · LONG
- 47
- kicking · PCT
- 0.947
- kicking · PTS
- 89
- kicking · XPA
- 35
- kicking · XPM
- 35
Savion Barthelemy · DT
CFBD athlete 5294660
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Shaun Torgeson · OL
CFBD athlete 5225603
- rushing · CAR
- 0
- rushing · LONG
- 12
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 12
- rushing · YPC
- 0
Tate Romney · LB
CFBD athlete 5092199
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 1.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 32
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 7
- defensive · TOT
- 63
Taurean Davis · LB
CFBD athlete 5390452
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 5
Terrence Lewis · WR
CFBD athlete 5207931
- receiving · LONG
- 31
- receiving · REC
- 19
- receiving · TD
- 2
- receiving · YDS
- 204
- receiving · YPR
- 10.7
Tre Page III · RB
CFBD athlete 5224505
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- rushing · CAR
- 20
- rushing · LONG
- 20
- rushing · TD
- 2
- rushing · YDS
- 113
- rushing · YPC
- 5.7
Trip White · LB
CFBD athlete 5081186
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
Trudell Berry · CB
CFBD athlete 4833353
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Vincent Holmes · S
CFBD athlete 4988081
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 1.0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.0
- defensive · TOT
- 6
William Mason · RB
CFBD athlete 5390453
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 5
- rushing · CAR
- 12
- rushing · LONG
- 15
- rushing · TD
- 1
- rushing · YDS
- 76
- rushing · YPC
- 6.3
Wyatt Young · WR
CFBD athlete 5148787
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- receiving · LONG
- 54
- receiving · REC
- 43
- receiving · TD
- 8
- receiving · YDS
- 713
- receiving · YPR
- 16.6
- rushing · CAR
- 4
- rushing · LONG
- 8
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 13
- rushing · YPC
- 3.3
Kansas State
Window: 2026-10-31 (reported) · 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-07T18:00:00+00:00.
| Player | Passing | Rushing |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Knuth QB 1 games | 31.8% 14 / 44 plays | 66.7% 4 / 6 plays |
| Blake Barnett QB 1 games | 46.9% 15 / 32 plays | 46.2% 6 / 13 plays |
| Joe Jackson RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 41.9% 18 / 43 plays |
| Avery Johnson QB 1 games | 48.0% 12 / 25 plays | 45.5% 5 / 11 plays |
| Rodney Fields Jr. RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 40.0% 12 / 30 plays |
| Dillon Duff QB 1 games | 0.0% 0 / 3 plays | 0.0% 0 / 1 plays |
| Jay Harris RB 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 66.7% 2 / 3 plays |
| Joshua Manning WR 2 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 50.0% 1 / 2 plays |
Traditional season production · 60 players
Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.
Adonis Moise · WR
CFBD athlete 5141580
- receiving · LONG
- 4
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 4
- receiving · YPR
- 4.0
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 4
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 4
- rushing · YPC
- 4.0
Adrian Maddox · S
CFBD athlete 5089023
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 5
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 5
Aidan O'Neill · PK
CFBD athlete 5384690
- kicking · FGA
- 0
- kicking · FGM
- 0
- kicking · LONG
- 0
- kicking · PCT
- 0
- kicking · PTS
- 1
- kicking · XPA
- 1
- kicking · XPM
- 1
Andrew Johnson · LS
CFBD athlete 5230290
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Asa Newsom · LB
CFBD athlete 4899440
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 5
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2
- defensive · TOT
- 9
Ashton Moore · LB
CFBD athlete 5218241
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Austin Ramsey · DT
CFBD athlete 4918112
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Avery Johnson · QB
CFBD athlete 4870857
- passing · ATT
- 187
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 118
- passing · INT
- 3
- passing · PCT
- 0.631
- passing · TD
- 10
- passing · YDS
- 1301
- passing · YPA
- 7.0
- rushing · CAR
- 51
- rushing · LONG
- 66
- rushing · TD
- 3
- rushing · YDS
- 462
- rushing · YPC
- 9.1
Ben Osueke · CB
CFBD athlete 5121993
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Blake Barnett · QB
CFBD athlete 5124584
- passing · ATT
- 33
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 22
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 0.667
- passing · TD
- 3
- passing · YDS
- 265
- passing · YPA
- 8.0
- rushing · CAR
- 18
- rushing · LONG
- 14
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 43
- rushing · YPC
- 2.4
Brandon White · WR
CFBD athlete 4894839
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 1
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 0
- fumbles · FUM
- 4
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- kickReturns · AVG
- 31.6
- kickReturns · LONG
- 48
- kickReturns · NO
- 5
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 158
- puntReturns · AVG
- 10.4
- puntReturns · LONG
- 65
- puntReturns · NO
- 12
- puntReturns · TD
- 1
- puntReturns · YDS
- 125
- receiving · LONG
- 13
- receiving · REC
- 13
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 78
- receiving · YPR
- 6.0
- rushing · CAR
- 6
- rushing · LONG
- 11
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 37
- rushing · YPC
- 6.2
DJ Ackerson Jr. · LB
CFBD athlete 5269120
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Dalton Knapp · DE
CFBD athlete 5205098
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Darien Whitaker Jr. · LB
CFBD athlete 5245108
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 2.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 10
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 5.0
- defensive · TOT
- 14
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 2
De'Arieun Hicks · DT
CFBD athlete 5231145
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
Derrick Salley Jr. · WR
CFBD athlete 5384681
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- receiving · LONG
- 45
- receiving · REC
- 19
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 311
- receiving · YPR
- 16.4
Dillon Duff · QB
CFBD athlete 5164321
- passing · ATT
- 1
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 1
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 1.000
- passing · TD
- 0
- passing · YDS
- 2
- passing · YPA
- 2.0
- rushing · CAR
- 3
- rushing · LONG
- 1
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- -3
- rushing · YPC
- -1.0
Donovan McIntosh · CB
CFBD athlete 4921519
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 9
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 11
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Eli Jackson · DT
CFBD athlete 5384689
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 16
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.0
- defensive · TOT
- 20
Elijah Hill · DE
CFBD athlete 5265481
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 2
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2
- defensive · TOT
- 5
Gabe Powers · LB
CFBD athlete 4685511
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 24
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 4.5
- defensive · TOT
- 34
Garrett Oakley · TE
CFBD athlete 4804882
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- receiving · LONG
- 36
- receiving · REC
- 19
- receiving · TD
- 2
- receiving · YDS
- 221
- receiving · YPR
- 11.6
Isaac Koch · WR
CFBD athlete 5093137
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Izaiah Williams · WR
CFBD athlete 5079769
- receiving · LONG
- 11
- receiving · REC
- 2
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 21
- receiving · YPR
- 10.5
Ja'Son Prevard · S
CFBD athlete 5154535
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Jack Fabris · S
CFBD athlete 5078243
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Jacob Knuth · QB
CFBD athlete 4736246
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- passing · ATT
- 42
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 27
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 0.643
- passing · TD
- 1
- passing · YDS
- 201
- passing · YPA
- 4.8
- rushing · CAR
- 12
- rushing · LONG
- 18
- rushing · TD
- 2
- rushing · YDS
- 44
- rushing · YPC
- 3.7
Jacobi Oliphant Jr. · LB
CFBD athlete 5079652
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Jaron Tibbs · WR
CFBD athlete 5078225
- receiving · LONG
- 33
- receiving · REC
- 39
- receiving · TD
- 4
- receiving · YDS
- 379
- receiving · YPR
- 9.7
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 4
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 4
- rushing · YPC
- 4.0
Jay Harris · RB
CFBD athlete 5193496
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- kickReturns · AVG
- 20.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 23
- kickReturns · NO
- 5
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 100
- rushing · CAR
- 17
- rushing · LONG
- 17
- rushing · TD
- 3
- rushing · YDS
- 96
- rushing · YPC
- 5.6
Jayden Bryant · DE
CFBD athlete 5193653
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 4
- defensive · SACKS
- 4
- defensive · SOLO
- 8
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 5
- defensive · TOT
- 12
Jet Dineen · S
CFBD athlete 5081905
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
JoJo Scott · CB
CFBD athlete 5215552
- defensive · PD
- 8
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 10
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 14
Joe Jackson · RB
CFBD athlete 5078916
- receiving · LONG
- 43
- receiving · REC
- 14
- receiving · TD
- 2
- receiving · YDS
- 132
- receiving · YPR
- 9.4
- rushing · CAR
- 84
- rushing · LONG
- 64
- rushing · TD
- 2
- rushing · YDS
- 384
- rushing · YPC
- 4.6
Jordan Allen · DE
CFBD athlete 4923029
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 4
- defensive · SACKS
- 2.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 10
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 5.5
- defensive · TOT
- 21
Joshua Manning · WR
CFBD athlete 4921113
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- receiving · LONG
- 36
- receiving · REC
- 32
- receiving · TD
- 3
- receiving · YDS
- 327
- receiving · YPR
- 10.2
- rushing · CAR
- 4
- rushing · LONG
- 21
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 32
- rushing · YPC
- 8.0
Kaleb Patterson · CB
CFBD athlete 5154323
- defensive · PD
- 4
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 8
Kamari Burns · DT
CFBD athlete 5075706
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.0
- defensive · TOT
- 16
Koy Beasley · S
CFBD athlete 5086452
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 24
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 31
Lawson Mcgraw · TE
CFBD athlete 5291096
- receiving · LONG
- 0
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- -4
- receiving · YPR
- -4.0
Linkon Cure · TE
CFBD athlete 5164346
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- receiving · LONG
- 33
- receiving · REC
- 13
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 152
- receiving · YPR
- 11.7
Logan Bartley · S
CFBD athlete 5195735
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 35
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2
- defensive · TOT
- 54
- interceptions · AVG
- 16.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 16
Luis Rodriguez · PK
CFBD athlete 5294439
- kicking · FGA
- 14
- kicking · FGM
- 12
- kicking · LONG
- 51
- kicking · PCT
- 0.857
- kicking · PTS
- 59
- kicking · XPA
- 23
- kicking · XPM
- 23
Mekhi Mason · LB
CFBD athlete 4808997
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 25
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.5
- defensive · TOT
- 38
Micheal Graham Jr. · CB
CFBD athlete 5384680
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Monterrio Elston Jr. · RB
CFBD athlete 5217820
- kickReturns · AVG
- 19.5
- kickReturns · LONG
- 21
- kickReturns · NO
- 2
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 39
- rushing · CAR
- 6
- rushing · LONG
- 46
- rushing · TD
- 1
- rushing · YDS
- 76
- rushing · YPC
- 12.7
Nick Mcclellan · CB
CFBD athlete 5278414
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 12
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2
- defensive · TOT
- 12
Owen Harrington · TE
CFBD athlete 5384686
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Rex Van Wyhe · LB
CFBD athlete 5151087
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 14
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 4
- defensive · TOT
- 26
- receiving · LONG
- 3
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 3
- receiving · YPR
- 3.0
Robert Hammond · PK
CFBD athlete 5151827
- kicking · FGA
- 0
- kicking · FGM
- 0
- kicking · LONG
- 0
- kicking · PCT
- 0
- kicking · PTS
- 4
- kicking · XPA
- 4
- kicking · XPM
- 4
Rodney Fields Jr. · RB
CFBD athlete 5125335
- receiving · LONG
- 30
- receiving · REC
- 8
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 61
- receiving · YPR
- 7.6
- rushing · CAR
- 93
- rushing · LONG
- 75
- rushing · TD
- 5
- rushing · YDS
- 487
- rushing · YPC
- 5.2
Sawyer Schilke · LB
CFBD athlete 5209749
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 5
Simon McClannan · P
CFBD athlete 5092224
- punting · In 20
- 15
- punting · LONG
- 66
- punting · NO
- 30
- punting · TB
- 2
- punting · YDS
- 1452
- punting · YPP
- 48.4
Sterling Lockett · WR
CFBD athlete 4911861
- puntReturns · AVG
- 13.0
- puntReturns · LONG
- 27
- puntReturns · NO
- 6
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 78
Travis Bates · DE
CFBD athlete 5104035
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 5
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.5
- defensive · TOT
- 13
Wendell Gregory · DE
CFBD athlete 5079426
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 6
- defensive · SACKS
- 3.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 16
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 10.5
- defensive · TOT
- 27
Wesley Fair · S
CFBD athlete 4923257
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 13
- kickReturns · AVG
- 2.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 2
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 2
Weston Polk · LB
CFBD athlete 5207659
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Will Anciaux · TE
CFBD athlete 4920187
- receiving · LONG
- 27
- receiving · REC
- 6
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 84
- receiving · YPR
- 14.0
Zashon Rich · CB
CFBD athlete 5189028
- defensive · PD
- 3
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 13
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 19
Pregame weather
Decision-time forecast unavailable
No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.
Weather context
Weather record unavailable
Evidence cutoff: . This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.
No matching weather context has been published for this game.
- Verified pregame availability
- Unavailable
- Measurement units
- Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
- Forecast issue time
- Unavailable
- Forecast valid time
- Unavailable
Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.
Latest published card · In-season model
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.
Kansas State +6.5
EPA-OLS history for 3-7 point gaps: 51% against the spread · below the 52.4% break-even at −110 · 175 games · 2025 · historical reference, not a cover probability.
Oklahoma State -6.5
DraftKings snapshot: Kansas State +6.5
Oklahoma State by 1.01
5.49 points toward Kansas State versus the spread. The gap is not a cover probability.
Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast
Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately
Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward Kansas State.
- Fitted offset: +5.20
- Net EPA rating difference: -5.02
- Fitted home field: -1.20
Reconciles to -1.01 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.
Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.
Fit c4bb7cb5f7676bad6ca935c9ad6de236fbdb43b95c02a90800020598436e58af · inputs a72e8318893441d88e307b34352bd8d7ce899e91f1238b212ae38423a22aa82f · training 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51 · forecast b5617a9be485e4a02778f4f0a42f43221328293cb6ea60d430b3cf85c30b0e8e · through week 9.
What changed?
7 saved cards for this gameMarket spread changed. Model projection held. Home model gap moved +1.0 points.
The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.
Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.
| Recorded value | Earlier | Latest | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market spread | +5.5 | +6.5 | +1.0 |
| Model spread | +1.01 | +1.01 | 0.0 |
| Model gap | +4.49 | +5.49 | +1.0 |
Negative spreads favor Kansas State; positive model gap favors them too.
Capture times & sources
Earlier saved card
Generated
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
In-season model · rating source as of unknown
Latest published card
Generated
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
In-season model · rating source as of unknown
Model gap = market spread minus model spread.
This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.
Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.
- Earlier saved card SHA-256
- 09ae362bba85693dce95202484e390b841fbdf36d21ea093fee4dd02276f20a9
- Odds source SHA-256
- 1191efda55b02705391f90dc98ac55459f647f2300778ae80eca48d727f2d3cf
- Latest published card SHA-256
- 1cb82609908ef20168d6821e20ce6db6dd11891a77105bc3ac9b18df06cadb8b
- Odds source SHA-256
- d0dba70812098c221b0c8c478c2238c95459bef99e39ca41d677e1f30597fc3c
Model context & pick method
Card generated . Captured prices are not live quotes.
- Output:
- Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
- Model:
- EPA-OLS
- Training:
- 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9; 285 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
- Features:
- EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: a72e8318893441d88e307b34352bd8d7ce899e91f1238b212ae38423a22aa82f. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
- Evaluation:
- EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.
Training: 285 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.
Training-only RMSE: 15.77 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.
Margins are not projected scores.
Pick logic
Kansas State +6.5
Model gap +5.5 points
A pick needs a gap of at least 3.0 points, either way. Positive gaps favor Kansas State.
Win probabilities · separate sources
Kansas State win probability by source
- EPA-OLS calibrated win probability
- Unavailable
- Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
- CFBD market-based probability
- 33%
- Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:01:15 CST; CFBD source spread: Kansas State +6.5
- Stacked ensemble
- 57%
- Stacked ensemble from the model pack
Explain this StackedEnsemble probability
Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.
Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward Kansas State.
- away adjusted success: -20.49 (path difference 2.89)
- home adjusted success allowed: +10.80 (path difference 2.15)
- home adjusted success: +8.36 (path difference 3.62)
- away elo: +6.51 (path difference 1.45)
- home elo: +6.18 (path difference 1.24)
- away adjusted rushing epa allowed: +4.78 (path difference 1.20)
- home adjusted second level yards: +4.68 (path difference 2.70)
- home adjusted standard down success allowed: -4.35 (path difference 2.01)
- away adjusted epa: -3.90 (path difference 2.52)
- home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +3.71 (path difference 1.32)
- home talent: +3.61 (path difference 1.44)
- home adjusted passing epa: -3.47 (path difference 0.57)
- home adjusted epa: +3.20 (path difference 2.11)
- away adjusted rushing epa: +2.82 (path difference 2.84)
- away adjusted second level yards allowed: -2.50 (path difference 0.02)
- away talent: -2.29 (path difference 0.43)
- away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +2.24 (path difference 0.30)
- away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +1.92 (path difference 1.17)
- home adjusted passing epa allowed: +1.86 (path difference 0.44)
- away adjusted passing down success allowed: -1.85 (path difference 0.88)
- away adjusted standard down success: +1.74 (path difference 2.62)
- home adjusted line yards allowed: -1.70 (path difference 0.53)
- home adjusted rushing epa allowed: -1.56 (path difference 0.14)
- home adjusted explosiveness allowed: -1.43 (path difference 0.27)
- home adjusted epa allowed: -1.42 (path difference 0.10)
- away adjusted line yards: -1.39 (path difference 2.32)
- home adjusted pass explosiveness: +1.35 (path difference 1.09)
- away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +1.31 (path difference 1.64)
- week: -1.31 (path difference 0.01)
- away adjusted success allowed: +1.21 (path difference 0.64)
- home adjusted standard down success: +1.16 (path difference 1.19)
- away adjusted passing epa allowed: -1.01 (path difference 0.04)
- home adjusted second level yards allowed: -0.91 (path difference 1.71)
- home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +0.86 (path difference 0.82)
- away adjusted passing down success: +0.83 (path difference 0.69)
- away adjusted standard down success allowed: +0.63 (path difference 1.44)
- home adjusted open field yards: +0.60 (path difference 1.34)
- away adjusted epa allowed: -0.60 (path difference 1.10)
- home adjusted rushing epa: -0.58 (path difference 0.74)
- away adjusted line yards allowed: +0.55 (path difference 0.45)
- away adjusted open field yards: +0.52 (path difference 0.40)
- away adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.46 (path difference 0.41)
- away adjusted open field yards allowed: -0.44 (path difference 2.11)
- home adjusted open field yards allowed: +0.40 (path difference 0.06)
- home adjusted rush explosiveness: +0.37 (path difference 0.04)
- away conference: -0.33 (path difference 0.01)
- home conference: -0.32 (path difference 0.02)
- home adjusted explosiveness: -0.27 (path difference 0.06)
- away adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.21 (path difference 1.70)
- home adjusted passing down success allowed: -0.11 (path difference 1.17)
- away adjusted second level yards: +0.10 (path difference 0.96)
- away adjusted explosiveness: +0.08 (path difference 0.42)
- away adjusted passing epa: +0.07 (path difference 0.01)
- home adjusted passing down success: +0.02 (path difference 0.34)
- home adjusted line yards: -0.01 (path difference 0.00)
Reconciles to 57.24 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.
Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.
Fit e302459ca56c4f194361bcc0ad952fb75b35a71b9ff0feaf8dede9dc1265ad90 · inputs 188652aaec40055e840a102e4d9c4e7dfa6fe78fe1bef4ef75c0a19022f2ab8d · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast 36df2ea08fbfc26fe3a4c84c0a9dee8cf0bf477bffd33c27a8d1b3bfea6d9587 · through week 9.
- Output:
- Home win probability (%), display only
- Model:
- StackedEnsemble
- Training:
- Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
- Features:
- Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
- Evaluation:
- Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record
The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.
Rushing workload · last three team games
CFBD individually attributed rushing attempts, including attributed sacks. Captured before kickoff; descriptive context, separate from the forecast. Through 2026-11-06 UTC.
Oklahoma State
3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 92 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.
| Player | Attempts | YPC | Sacks | Attributed share | Captured season attempts / YPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Caleb HawkinsCFBD athlete 5258016 Week 7 vs Houston: 17 attempts · 4.0 YPC · 47.1% success · -0.029 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Colorado: 19 attempts · 6.3 YPC · 47.4% success · 0.317 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Iowa State: 24 attempts · 7.9 YPC · 66.7% success · 0.576 raw PPA. | 60 | 6.3 | 0 | 65.2% | 166 / 5.4 |
Drew MestemakerCFBD athlete 5219834 Week 7 vs Houston: 6 attempts · 5.7 YPC · 40.0% success · -0.367 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Colorado: 8 attempts · 1.0 YPC · 40.0% success · -0.075 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Iowa State: 4 attempts · 4.0 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.416 raw PPA. | 18 | 3.2 | 4 | 19.6% | 33 / 5.0 |
William MasonCFBD athlete 5390453 Week 8 vs Colorado: 5 attempts · 5.0 YPC · 60.0% success · 0.571 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Iowa State: 1 attempts · 3.0 YPC · 100.0% success · -0.227 raw PPA. | 6 | 4.7 | 0 | 6.5% | 11 / 6.7 |
Tre Page IIICFBD athlete 5224505 Week 8 vs Colorado: 4 attempts · 7.5 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.446 raw PPA. | 4 | 7.5 | 0 | 4.3% | 19 / 5.8 |
Ayo AdeyiCFBD athlete 4875861 Week 7 vs Houston: 2 attempts · 10.0 YPC · 100.0% success · 1.615 raw PPA. | 2 | 10.0 | 0 | 2.2% | 30 / 6.7 |
Kansas State
3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 120 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.
| Player | Attempts | YPC | Sacks | Attributed share | Captured season attempts / YPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Joe JacksonCFBD athlete 5078916 Week 7 vs Kansas: 27 attempts · 5.9 YPC · 48.1% success · 0.074 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Arizona State: 9 attempts · 1.9 YPC · 22.2% success · -0.393 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Colorado: 7 attempts · 1.9 YPC · 42.9% success · -0.123 raw PPA. | 43 | 4.4 | 0 | 35.8% | 84 / 4.6 |
Rodney Fields Jr.CFBD athlete 5125335 Week 7 vs Kansas: 8 attempts · 8.3 YPC · 62.5% success · 0.612 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Arizona State: 10 attempts · 3.6 YPC · 10.0% success · -0.480 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Colorado: 12 attempts · 5.4 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.038 raw PPA. | 30 | 5.6 | 0 | 25.0% | 93 / 5.2 |
Blake BarnettCFBD athlete 5124584 Week 9 vs Colorado: 16 attempts · 2.5 YPC · 46.2% success · 0.163 raw PPA. | 16 | 2.5 | 3 | 13.3% | 18 / 2.4 |
Avery JohnsonCFBD athlete 4870857 Week 7 vs Kansas: 12 attempts · 11.0 YPC · 45.5% success · 0.808 raw PPA. | 12 | 11.0 | 1 | 10.0% | 50 / 9.1 |
Jacob KnuthCFBD athlete 4736246 Week 8 vs Arizona State: 9 attempts · 2.1 YPC · 66.7% success · 0.125 raw PPA. | 9 | 2.1 | 3 | 7.5% | 12 / 3.7 |
Team-only and unresolved attempts are outside this player population. Game PPA and success rates retain provider denominators; they are not pooled across games. Missing appearances do not establish player availability. This three-game window is separate from the 100-play form window.
Team matchup statistics
Offense vs defense
2026 season to date · through Week 9, captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.
| Measure | Kansas StateOffense | Oklahoma StateDefense | Oklahoma StateOffense | Kansas StateDefense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPA/play | +0.19 68th | +0.12 34th | +0.24 87th | +0.11 38th |
| Success rate | 47.0% 76th | 41.8% 40th | 50.7% 96th | 35.6% 86th |
| Explosiveness | 1.16 21st | 1.29 24th | 1.18 27th | 1.45 2nd |
| Standard-down PPA/play | +0.13 69th | +0.08 30th | +0.22 91st | -0.01 64th |
| Passing-down PPA/play | +0.32 67th | +0.20 47th | +0.31 64th | +0.30 18th |
| Havoc allowed / created | 13.0% 73rd | 15.8% 51st | 11.9% 91st | 19.3% 88th |
Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.
CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR
Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions
Preview captured Nov 6, 2026, 6:16:08 AM CST · assembled Nov 6, 2026, 6:16:08 AM CST
Checking current kickoff time before showing captured pregame metrics.
2026 kicker PAAR
Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Nov 6, 2026, 6:15:45 AM CST.
- Sam Keltner · Oklahoma State · PAAR 8.08 · 20 attempts
- Luis Rodriguez · Kansas State · PAAR 1.93 · 14 attempts
Player recent form
CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.
Checking kickoff before showing recent player metrics.
Captured line movement
Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Nov 6, 2026, 14:39:19 CST · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.
Loading recorded line history… Open this game’s recorded history.
Line history & team context
Card snapshot lines
Kansas State spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.
DraftKings
CFBD-reported opening: +6.5 · Snapshot spread: +6.5
First locally observed: +3.5 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Total · CFBD-reported opening: 60.5 · Snapshot total: 62.5
Total · First locally observed: 62.5 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Total observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Home moneyline · Snapshot: +185 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Home moneyline · First locally observed: +145 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Home moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Away moneyline · Snapshot: -225 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Away moneyline · First locally observed: -175 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Away moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Bovada
CFBD-reported opening: +3.5 · Snapshot spread: +6.5
First locally observed: +3.5 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Total · CFBD-reported opening: 62 · Snapshot total: 62.5
Total · First locally observed: 62 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Total observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Home moneyline · Snapshot: +150 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Home moneyline · First locally observed: +150 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Home moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Away moneyline · Snapshot: -175 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Away moneyline · First locally observed: -175 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Away moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Kansas State
Net adjusted EPA/play -0.0 · 8 rated weeks · Big 12
Oklahoma State
Net adjusted EPA/play +0.0 · 9 rated weeks · Big 12
Travel
Oklahoma State travels 214 miles (shorter than half of road trips, 2017–2025) · no time-zone change.
Distance uses the campuses because this schedule has no venue.
The 2017–2025 study found no overall ATS edge. Distance and time-zone groups cover near a coin flip. The 2,500+ mile group is above break-even but dominated by Hawai'i trips, so it is not a betting rule.
Series history
Oklahoma State leads 43–26 in 69 meetings since 1917.
- 2025Kansas State at Oklahoma State14–6 · Kansas State
- 2024Oklahoma State at Kansas State20–42 · Kansas State
- 2023Kansas State at Oklahoma State21–29 · Oklahoma State
- 2022Oklahoma State at Kansas State0–48 · Kansas State
- 2021Kansas State at Oklahoma State20–31 · Oklahoma State
- 2020Oklahoma State at Kansas State20–18 · Oklahoma State
CFBD matchup data Last 6 meetings shown. N marks a neutral site. History is not a projection input.
Team style charts
Model output, not betting advice. Historical hit rates are small-sample backtests; several edge buckets lose money at -110. Flat units only.