Week 9 · 2026

Miami at North Carolina

Visual game report

Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.

Player production & success

CFBD regular season · through week 8 · observed 2026-10-30 UTC. Captured before kickoff.

Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.

Miami

Window: 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported) · 2026-10-03 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-31T23:30:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Darian Mensah QB 3 games	51.9% 54 / 104 plays	25.0% 1 / 4 plays
Mark Fletcher Jr. RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	38.6% 17 / 44 plays
Javian Mallory RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	52.9% 18 / 34 plays
Jordan Lyle RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	30.8% 4 / 13 plays
Girard Pringle Jr. RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	14.3% 1 / 7 plays
Chris Wheatley-Humphrey RB 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 4 plays
Malachi Toney WR 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	66.7% 2 / 3 plays

Traditional season production · 69 players

Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Adam Booker · LS

CFBD athlete 5081246

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Ahmad Moten · DL

CFBD athlete 4916996

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1.0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 7

Andres Williams · DB

CFBD athlete 5226986

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Armondo Blount · DL

CFBD athlete 5141370

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 5
defensive · SACKS: 2.5
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.0
defensive · TOT: 18

Asharri Charles · DL

CFBD athlete 5161813

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Booker Pickett · DL

CFBD athlete 5079565

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Brennan Burton · WR

CFBD athlete 5226970

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 5
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 5
receiving · YPR: 5.0

Brody Jennings · DB

CFBD athlete 5160492

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 6
interceptions · AVG: 24.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 24

Bryce Fitzgerald · DB

CFBD athlete 5298737

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 12
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 18
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Cam Pruitt · LB

CFBD athlete 5132631

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 12

Camdin Portis · DB

CFBD athlete 5217147

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

CharMar Brown · RB

CFBD athlete 5156998

receiving · LONG: 6
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 12
receiving · YPR: 6.0
rushing · CAR: 13
rushing · LONG: 32
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 97
rushing · YPC: 7.5

Chase Smith · LB

CFBD athlete 4682490

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 13
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 26

Chris Ewald Jr. · DB

CFBD athlete 5295127

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Chris Wheatley-Humphrey · RB

CFBD athlete 5142321

kickReturns · AVG: 23.0
kickReturns · LONG: 23
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 23
receiving · LONG: 7
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 7
receiving · YPR: 7.0
rushing · CAR: 15
rushing · LONG: 35
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 116
rushing · YPC: 7.7

Cooper Barkate · WR

CFBD athlete 4804878

receiving · LONG: 61
receiving · REC: 24
receiving · TD: 4
receiving · YDS: 301
receiving · YPR: 12.5

Cortez Redding · DB

CFBD athlete 5181240

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Damari Brown · DB

CFBD athlete 4870650

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 3

Damon Wilson Jr. · DL

CFBD athlete 4871089

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 3.5
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.5
defensive · TOT: 5
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Darian Mensah · QB

CFBD athlete 5121169

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 204
passing · COMPLETIONS: 166
passing · INT: 1
passing · PCT: 0.814
passing · TD: 22
passing · YDS: 2151
passing · YPA: 10.5
rushing · CAR: 20
rushing · LONG: 34
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 73
rushing · YPC: 3.7

Daylyn Upshaw · WR

CFBD athlete 5164365

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 44
receiving · REC: 19
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 251
receiving · YPR: 13.2

DeAnthony Lafayette · DL

CFBD athlete 5271176

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 2

Dereon Coleman · QB

CFBD athlete 5161816

passing · ATT: 6
passing · COMPLETIONS: 5
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.833
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 30
passing · YPA: 5.0
rushing · CAR: 4
rushing · LONG: 10
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 25
rushing · YPC: 6.3

Dylan Day · DB

CFBD athlete 5142262

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 10

Dylan Joyce · P

CFBD athlete 5121892

punting · In 20: 5
punting · LONG: 54
punting · NO: 18
punting · TB: 1
punting · YDS: 813
punting · YPP: 45.2

Elija Lofton · TE

CFBD athlete 5079503

receiving · LONG: 31
receiving · REC: 17
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 188
receiving · YPR: 11.1

Ethan O'Connor · DB

CFBD athlete 4919038

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 19
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Ezekiel Marcelin Jr. · LB

CFBD athlete 5141569

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 14

Gavin Mueller · TE

CFBD athlete 5276674

receiving · LONG: 6
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 13
receiving · YPR: 4.3

Girard Pringle Jr. · RB

CFBD athlete 5164331

kickReturns · AVG: 17.8
kickReturns · LONG: 22
kickReturns · NO: 5
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 89
receiving · LONG: 23
receiving · REC: 4
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 43
receiving · YPR: 10.8
rushing · CAR: 29
rushing · LONG: 9
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 86
rushing · YPC: 3.0

Herbert Scroggins III · DL

CFBD athlete 5214513

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 7
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Isaiah Taylor · DB

CFBD athlete 4712326

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 7

Israel Briggs · TE

CFBD athlete 5245125

receiving · LONG: 5
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 8
receiving · YPR: 4.0

JJ Dunnigan · DB

CFBD athlete 5259295

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 16
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 28
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1
interceptions · AVG: 39.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 1
interceptions · YDS: 39

Ja'Boree Antoine · DB

CFBD athlete 5141368

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Jack Olsen · PK

CFBD athlete 4566164

kicking · FGA: 0
kicking · FGM: 0
kicking · LONG: 0
kicking · PCT: 0
kicking · PTS: 2
kicking · XPA: 2
kicking · XPM: 2

Jack Whitehouse · RB

CFBD athlete 5226985

rushing · CAR: 5
rushing · LONG: 17
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 57
rushing · YPC: 11.4

Jaelen Waters · DB

CFBD athlete 5163001

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 1

Jake Weinberg · PK

CFBD athlete 5123219

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
kicking · FGA: 7
kicking · FGM: 6
kicking · LONG: 50
kicking · PCT: 0.857
kicking · PTS: 56
kicking · XPA: 38
kicking · XPM: 38

Jamal Meriweather · OL

CFBD athlete 4921440

rushing · CAR: 0
rushing · LONG: 0
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 0
rushing · YPC: 0

Jarquez Carter · DL

CFBD athlete 5167747

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 7

Javian Mallory · RB

CFBD athlete 5160496

kickReturns · AVG: 23.0
kickReturns · LONG: 23
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 23
receiving · LONG: 20
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 32
receiving · YPR: 10.7
rushing · CAR: 59
rushing · LONG: 52
rushing · TD: 7
rushing · YDS: 444
rushing · YPC: 7.5

Jordan Lyle · RB

CFBD athlete 5079591

fumbles · FUM: 2
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
puntReturns · AVG: -2.0
puntReturns · LONG: 0
puntReturns · NO: 1
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: -2
receiving · LONG: 9
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 16
receiving · YPR: 5.3
rushing · CAR: 19
rushing · LONG: 20
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 89
rushing · YPC: 4.7

Joshua Moore · WR

CFBD athlete 5141593

receiving · LONG: 55
receiving · REC: 7
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 107
receiving · YPR: 15.3

Justin Scott · DL

CFBD athlete 5079678

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 21
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Kamal Bonner · LB

CFBD athlete 5078098

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 12

Kellen Wiley Jr. · LB

CFBD athlete 5236220

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 7
receiving · LONG: 5
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 5
receiving · YPR: 5.0

Keona Davis · DL

CFBD athlete 5219069

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.0
defensive · TOT: 5

Keshawn Stancil · DL

CFBD athlete 5212622

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Luke Nickel · QB

CFBD athlete 5141605

passing · ATT: 20
passing · COMPLETIONS: 15
passing · INT: 1
passing · PCT: 0.750
passing · TD: 3
passing · YDS: 204
passing · YPA: 10.2
rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 13
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 5
rushing · YPC: 2.5

Malachi Toney · WR

CFBD athlete 5159175

puntReturns · AVG: 11.5
puntReturns · LONG: 22
puntReturns · NO: 6
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 69
receiving · LONG: 53
receiving · REC: 66
receiving · TD: 11
receiving · YDS: 952
receiving · YPR: 14.4
rushing · CAR: 3
rushing · LONG: 30
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 50
rushing · YPC: 16.7

Mark Fletcher Jr. · RB

CFBD athlete 4870736

receiving · LONG: 16
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 42
receiving · YPR: 8.4
rushing · CAR: 81
rushing · LONG: 46
rushing · TD: 7
rushing · YDS: 414
rushing · YPC: 5.1

Marquise Lightfoot · DL

CFBD athlete 5126999

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 5
defensive · SOLO: 13
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 5.5
defensive · TOT: 22

Milan Parris · WR

CFBD athlete 5211183

receiving · LONG: 13
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 19
receiving · YPR: 6.3

Mohamed Toure · LB

CFBD athlete 4430604

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 24
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 35

Monroe Ingraham · DB

CFBD athlete 5377922

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Mykah Newton · DL

CFBD athlete 5198317

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Nick Thomas · WR

CFBD athlete 5226983

receiving · LONG: 10
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 14
receiving · YPR: 7.0

OJ Frederique Jr. · DB

CFBD athlete 5226976

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Omar Thornton · DB

CFBD athlete 5196025

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 5
defensive · SACKS: 3
defensive · SOLO: 16
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 5.5
defensive · TOT: 24

Ryan Mack · DB

CFBD athlete 5079564

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 8

Samuel Coufal · DL

CFBD athlete 5168282

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 0

Somourian Wingo · WR

CFBD athlete 5200381

kickReturns · AVG: 23.7
kickReturns · LONG: 27
kickReturns · NO: 3
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 71
puntReturns · AVG: 16.7
puntReturns · LONG: 42
puntReturns · NO: 3
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 50
receiving · LONG: 47
receiving · REC: 8
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 142
receiving · YPR: 17.8

Terrell Walden II · RB

CFBD athlete 5098610

rushing · CAR: 7
rushing · LONG: 10
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 25
rushing · YPC: 3.6

Vance Spafford · WR

CFBD athlete 5210477

receiving · LONG: 21
receiving · REC: 6
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 78
receiving · YPR: 13.0

Vandrevious Jacobs · WR

CFBD athlete 4870842

receiving · LONG: 44
receiving · REC: 9
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 150
receiving · YPR: 16.7

Will Rocha · PK

CFBD athlete 5170143

kicking · FGA: 0
kicking · FGM: 0
kicking · LONG: 0
kicking · PCT: 0
kicking · PTS: 5
kicking · XPA: 5
kicking · XPM: 5

Xavier Lucas · DB

CFBD athlete 5127735

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 6
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Zechariah Poyser · DB

CFBD athlete 5150903

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 18

North Carolina

Window: 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported) · 2026-10-10 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-31T23:30:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Billy Edwards QB 3 games	49.5% 50 / 101 plays	30.0% 3 / 10 plays
Demon June RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	44.4% 12 / 27 plays
Jaylen McGill RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	40.0% 10 / 25 plays
Benjamin Hall RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	35.7% 5 / 14 plays
Kaleb Jackson RB 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 1 plays
Adam Mccann-Gibbs P 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 1 plays

Traditional season production · 56 players

Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Adam Mccann-Gibbs · P

CFBD athlete 5292033

rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 0
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -16
rushing · YPC: -16.0

Ade Willie · DB

CFBD athlete 4812367

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 13

Aeron Burrell · PK

CFBD athlete 5139524

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
kicking · FGA: 7
kicking · FGM: 4
kicking · LONG: 33
kicking · PCT: 0.571
kicking · PTS: 20
kicking · XPA: 8
kicking · XPM: 8
punting · In 20: 8
punting · LONG: 60
punting · NO: 24
punting · TB: 0
punting · YDS: 1026
punting · YPP: 42.8

Benjamin Hall · RB

CFBD athlete 5008017

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 26
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 58
receiving · YPR: 11.6
rushing · CAR: 57
rushing · LONG: 25
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 283
rushing · YPC: 5.0

Billy Edwards · QB

CFBD athlete 4592532

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 201
passing · COMPLETIONS: 121
passing · INT: 5
passing · PCT: 0.602
passing · TD: 11
passing · YDS: 1530
passing · YPA: 7.6
rushing · CAR: 35
rushing · LONG: 17
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 12
rushing · YPC: 0.3

C.J. Sadler · WR

CFBD athlete 5159039

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 28
receiving · REC: 8
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 113
receiving · YPR: 14.1

Calvin Thomas · LB

CFBD athlete 5276966

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 6
puntReturns · AVG: 11.0
puntReturns · LONG: 11
puntReturns · NO: 1
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 11

Carson Sneed · TE

CFBD athlete 5159086

receiving · LONG: 11
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 11
receiving · YPR: 11.0

Charleston French · RB

CFBD athlete 5219169

rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 5
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 4
rushing · YPC: 2.0

Coleman Bryson · DB

CFBD athlete 4781738

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 20

Crew Davis · RB

CFBD athlete 5265173

receiving · LONG: 4
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 4
receiving · YPR: 4.0
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 3
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 3
rushing · YPC: 3.0

DQ Forkpa · LB

CFBD athlete 5272289

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

David Jackson III · DL

CFBD athlete 5273717

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Demon June · RB

CFBD athlete 5228607

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 15.0
kickReturns · LONG: 15
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 15
receiving · LONG: 12
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 24
receiving · YPR: 8.0
rushing · CAR: 59
rushing · LONG: 25
rushing · TD: 7
rushing · YDS: 245
rushing · YPC: 4.2

Derek Mcdonald · LB

CFBD athlete 4683224

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 26
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 71

Donovan Hoilette · DL

CFBD athlete 4877894

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 9

Emmanuel Nwaiwu · DL

CFBD athlete 5265566

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Gregory Smith · DB

CFBD athlete 5181309

defensive · PD: 4
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 23
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 42
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1
interceptions · AVG: 8.3
interceptions · INT: 3
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 25

Isaiah Johnson · DL

CFBD athlete 5086646

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 16

JacQawn McRoy · OL

CFBD athlete 5079586

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Jaden Jefferson · WR

CFBD athlete 5215379

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3
kickReturns · AVG: 43.3
kickReturns · LONG: 98
kickReturns · NO: 3
kickReturns · TD: 1
kickReturns · YDS: 130

Jaiden Patterson · DB

CFBD athlete 5136504

defensive · PD: 6
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 22
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 33

Jake Bauer · LB

CFBD athlete 5264739

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Jakob Weatherspoon · DB

CFBD athlete 5209393

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Jalon Thompson · DB

CFBD athlete 5127733

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 6

Jamarrion Gordon · DB

CFBD athlete 5161016

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Javion Butts · DB

CFBD athlete 5209388

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 11

Jaylen Harvey · DL

CFBD athlete 5079439

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 4
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 13
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 6.5
defensive · TOT: 24
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 2

Jaylen McGill · RB

CFBD athlete 5161835

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 20
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 33
receiving · YPR: 11.0
rushing · CAR: 42
rushing · LONG: 24
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 234
rushing · YPC: 5.6

Jaziel Hart · DB

CFBD athlete 5245067

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 6

Jelani Thurman · TE

CFBD athlete 4871039

receiving · LONG: 35
receiving · REC: 33
receiving · TD: 4
receiving · YDS: 391
receiving · YPR: 11.8

Jo Jo Troupe · RB

CFBD athlete 5198251

kickReturns · AVG: 24.0
kickReturns · LONG: 24
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 24
puntReturns · AVG: 8.0
puntReturns · LONG: 8
puntReturns · NO: 1
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 8
rushing · CAR: 5
rushing · LONG: 14
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 20
rushing · YPC: 4.0

Jonathan Agumadu · LB

CFBD athlete 5149828

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 32

Jordan Shipp · WR

CFBD athlete 5079687

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 49
receiving · REC: 41
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 543
receiving · YPR: 13.2

Jordan Washington · TE

CFBD athlete 5146756

receiving · LONG: 7
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 7
receiving · YPR: 7.0

Kaleb Cost · DB

CFBD athlete 4870671

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 11
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 16

Kaleb Jackson · RB

CFBD athlete 4870839

kickReturns · AVG: 9.0
kickReturns · LONG: 9
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 9
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 1
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 1
rushing · YPC: 1.0

Kenton Dopson III · DB

CFBD athlete 5280069

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 17
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Khristian Dunbar-Hawkins · DB

CFBD athlete 5079416

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Leroy Jackson · DL

CFBD athlete 5146953

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 44

Mason Humphrey · WR

CFBD athlete 5152717

receiving · LONG: 17
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 38
receiving · YPR: 12.7

Melkart Abou-Jaoude · DL

CFBD athlete 5086966

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 7
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 10

Miles O'Neill · QB

CFBD athlete 5145396

passing · ATT: 6
passing · COMPLETIONS: 3
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.500
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 22
passing · YPA: 3.7
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 15
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 15
rushing · YPC: 15.0

Nicco Maggio · DL

CFBD athlete 5144163

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 11

Nyqir Helton · WR

CFBD athlete 5214654

receiving · LONG: 9
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 15
receiving · YPR: 7.5

Peyton Seelmann · LB

CFBD athlete 5226835

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 1.5
defensive · SOLO: 27
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.0
defensive · TOT: 64

Peyton Waters · DB

CFBD athlete 5127877

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 13
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 22

Rece Verhoff · PK

CFBD athlete 5082559

kicking · FGA: 4
kicking · FGM: 4
kicking · LONG: 39
kicking · PCT: 1.000
kicking · PTS: 23
kicking · XPA: 12
kicking · XPM: 11

Shamar Easter · TE

CFBD athlete 4870709

receiving · LONG: 75
receiving · REC: 8
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 149
receiving · YPR: 18.6

Timir Hickman-Collins · LB

CFBD athlete 5218248

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 15

Tre Miller · DB

CFBD athlete 5078061

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 9
interceptions · AVG: 18.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 18

Trech Kekahuna · WR

CFBD athlete 5077266

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
puntReturns · AVG: 7.0
puntReturns · LONG: 15
puntReturns · NO: 7
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 49
receiving · LONG: 26
receiving · REC: 14
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 162
receiving · YPR: 11.6

Trey Giddens · DL

CFBD athlete 5265448

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 6

Xavier Jackson · DB

CFBD athlete 5290762

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Xavier Lewis · DL

CFBD athlete 5294564

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 5
defensive · SACKS: 7.0
defensive · SOLO: 15
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 10.0
defensive · TOT: 40

Zamaurious Robertson · WR

CFBD athlete 5279149

receiving · LONG: 4
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 4
receiving · YPR: 4.0

Pregame weather

Decision-time forecast unavailable

No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.

Weather context

Weather record unavailable

Evidence cutoff: 2026-10-26T04:30:00+00:00. This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.

No matching weather context has been published for this game.

Verified pregame availability: Unavailable
Measurement units: Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
Forecast issue time: Unavailable
Forecast valid time: Unavailable

Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.

Latest published card · In-season model

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.

Pick at comparison line

North Carolina +14

EPA-OLS history for 3-7 point gaps: 51% against the spread · below the 52.4% break-even at −110 · 175 games · 2025 · historical reference, not a cover probability.

Comparison line · CFBD median

Miami -14

DraftKings snapshot: North Carolina +14

EPA-OLS forecast · margin in points

Miami by 7.82

6.18 points toward North Carolina versus the spread. The gap is not a cover probability.

Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast

Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately

Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward North Carolina.

Net EPA rating difference: -11.76
Fitted offset: +5.87
Fitted home field: -1.93

Reconciles to -7.82 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.

Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.

Fit 43a90c4d579143e4336475325da6c037c0829278871c947a48303983b181ca72 · inputs 43767493557211b565edce80372536b6e33ccad060c14eebba32fb82db6a7cee · training 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517 · forecast c4e16b9ed75d9b8c921f1f610c07f48ee2bcb0b74e4bcf8e674e229ba2bdc198 · through week 8.

What changed?

12 saved cards for this game

Earlier saved card

No change in spread, forecast or model gap.

The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.

Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.

Home team: North Carolina · all values in points
Recorded value	Earlier	Latest
Market spread	+14.0	+14.0
Model spread	+7.82	+7.82
Model gap	+6.18	+6.18

Negative spreads favor North Carolina; positive model gap favors them too.

Capture times & sources

Earlier saved card

Generated Oct 29, 2026, 06:13:15 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Oct 29, 2026, 06:02:06 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Latest published card

Generated Oct 30, 2026, 06:10:26 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Model gap = market spread minus model spread.

This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.

Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.

Earlier saved card SHA-256: e2870225a3550ae3bff530e07f507a37ae8d297571a1fb3ae0be6cba56aae72d
Odds source SHA-256: c3afde8edfd04c38da42b18ab61b68542f93145177f25e3612c5230361aae058
Latest published card SHA-256: 907219f79e16b585a5fe31cf6748ec05ab06f7cd820077da867137c7509faba4
Odds source SHA-256: 979caa9e279ac4fb8cf2a315090127f7866efb485202ff3448873ffea01f6148

View recorded snapshot data

Model context & pick method

Card generated Oct 30, 2026, 06:10:26 CDT. Captured prices are not live quotes.

Output:: Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
Model:: EPA-OLS
Training:: 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8; 229 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Features:: EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 43767493557211b565edce80372536b6e33ccad060c14eebba32fb82db6a7cee. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Evaluation:: EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.

Training: 229 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8.

Training-only RMSE: 15.64 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.

Margins are not projected scores.

Pick logic

North Carolina +14

Model gap +6.2 points

A pick needs a gap of at least 3.0 points, either way. Positive gaps favor North Carolina.

Win probabilities · separate sources

North Carolina win probability by source

EPA-OLS calibrated win probability: Unavailable; Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
CFBD market-based probability: 17%; Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:02:01 CDT; CFBD source spread: North Carolina +14
Stacked ensemble: 20%; Stacked ensemble from the model pack

Explain this StackedEnsemble probability

Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.

Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward North Carolina.

away adjusted success: -11.78 (path difference 6.23)
away elo: -11.09 (path difference 1.99)
away adjusted rushing epa allowed: +7.72 (path difference 2.12)
away adjusted epa: -6.24 (path difference 1.08)
home adjusted success: +5.96 (path difference 7.53)
away talent: -5.07 (path difference 3.85)
away adjusted success allowed: -4.39 (path difference 2.44)
home adjusted passing epa allowed: +4.12 (path difference 0.64)
away adjusted second level yards allowed: -4.08 (path difference 2.85)
away adjusted epa allowed: -4.04 (path difference 0.44)
home adjusted epa allowed: -3.49 (path difference 2.96)
home adjusted second level yards: +3.42 (path difference 1.72)
home adjusted epa: +3.42 (path difference 5.09)
away adjusted standard down success allowed: -3.14 (path difference 0.88)
home adjusted open field yards allowed: +3.02 (path difference 0.16)
home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +2.93 (path difference 2.26)
home talent: +2.87 (path difference 0.08)
home adjusted passing down success allowed: -2.63 (path difference 0.57)
away adjusted explosiveness: +2.40 (path difference 0.66)
away adjusted standard down success: +2.34 (path difference 0.97)
home elo: -2.07 (path difference 0.17)
home adjusted rushing epa: -1.98 (path difference 1.70)
home adjusted rushing epa allowed: +1.90 (path difference 0.24)
away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +1.90 (path difference 1.15)
home adjusted open field yards: -1.74 (path difference 1.56)
away adjusted line yards: -1.73 (path difference 1.35)
away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +1.67 (path difference 0.48)
away adjusted passing down success: +1.67 (path difference 1.19)
away adjusted passing epa allowed: +1.42 (path difference 1.55)
home adjusted pass explosiveness: +1.35 (path difference 0.41)
away adjusted open field yards allowed: -1.30 (path difference 2.12)
home adjusted standard down success allowed: +1.13 (path difference 0.61)
home adjusted standard down success: +1.08 (path difference 1.23)
home conference: -0.88 (path difference 0.05)
home adjusted second level yards allowed: +0.82 (path difference 0.07)
away adjusted passing down success allowed: -0.76 (path difference 0.82)
away adjusted line yards allowed: +0.62 (path difference 0.45)
home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: -0.58 (path difference 0.96)
home adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.58 (path difference 1.47)
home adjusted line yards: -0.57 (path difference 0.71)
away adjusted passing epa: -0.44 (path difference 0.54)
away adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.44 (path difference 0.55)
away adjusted rushing epa: +0.40 (path difference 0.12)
week: +0.38 (path difference 0.17)
away conference: -0.37 (path difference 0.14)
home adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.37 (path difference 0.78)
away adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.34 (path difference 0.21)
home adjusted passing down success: -0.28 (path difference 1.27)
home adjusted explosiveness: -0.18 (path difference 0.37)
home adjusted line yards allowed: -0.13 (path difference 2.46)
home adjusted success allowed: -0.12 (path difference 0.33)
away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: -0.05 (path difference 0.04)
home adjusted passing epa: -0.04 (path difference 0.40)
away adjusted open field yards: +0.02 (path difference 1.47)
away adjusted second level yards: +0.01 (path difference 0.01)

Reconciles to 19.84 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.

Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.

Fit 1ad7d19a4f250d7f5c62cdf95b70289b6ffd1cf8bdf8feb12b8623f27e5aa234 · inputs b8b5d635f169916651790c0656ed1bde2f60d0a19c7e74072da3679692f33c30 · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast 2691acc1268367ae4539411bcb55e1668eea6c62970759076275cdbf653ae58e · through week 8.

Output:: Home win probability (%), display only
Model:: StackedEnsemble
Training:: Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
Features:: Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Evaluation:: Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record

The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.

Rushing workload · last three team games

CFBD individually attributed rushing attempts, including attributed sacks. Captured before kickoff; descriptive context, separate from the forecast. Through 2026-10-30 UTC.

Miami

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 116 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Mark Fletcher Jr. CFBD athlete 4870736 Week 5 vs Clemson: 16 attempts · 4.8 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.193 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Florida State: 16 attempts · 4.1 YPC · 37.5% success · -0.332 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Pittsburgh: 13 attempts · 5.5 YPC · 30.8% success · -0.040 raw PPA.	45	4.8	0	38.8%	81 / 5.5
Javian Mallory CFBD athlete 5160496 Week 5 vs Clemson: 14 attempts · 4.5 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.053 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Florida State: 13 attempts · 8.3 YPC · 53.8% success · 0.480 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Pittsburgh: 7 attempts · 6.7 YPC · 57.1% success · 0.678 raw PPA.	34	6.4	0	29.3%	58 / 7.6
Jordan Lyle CFBD athlete 5079591 Week 7 vs Florida State: 9 attempts · 4.7 YPC · 22.2% success · -0.046 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Pittsburgh: 4 attempts · 7.8 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.162 raw PPA.	13	5.6	0	11.2%	18 / 4.9
Darian Mensah CFBD athlete 5121169 Week 5 vs Clemson: 3 attempts · 9.0 YPC · 100.0% success · 2.937 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Florida State: 3 attempts · 2.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.319 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Pittsburgh: 4 attempts · -6.2 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.126 raw PPA.	10	0.8	6	8.6%	18 / 2.3
Girard Pringle Jr. CFBD athlete 5164331 Week 5 vs Clemson: 1 attempts · 6.0 YPC · 100.0% success · 0.307 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Florida State: 1 attempts · 4.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.041 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Pittsburgh: 5 attempts · 0.2 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.393 raw PPA.	7	1.6	0	6.0%	27 / 2.9

North Carolina

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 85 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Demon June CFBD athlete 5228607 Week 6 vs Pittsburgh: 6 attempts · 2.5 YPC · 33.3% success · 0.241 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Duke: 12 attempts · 3.7 YPC · 33.3% success · 0.227 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Syracuse: 9 attempts · 5.9 YPC · 66.7% success · 0.606 raw PPA.	27	4.1	0	31.8%	58 / 4.1
Jaylen McGill CFBD athlete 5161835 Week 6 vs Pittsburgh: 1 attempts · -4.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.994 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Duke: 12 attempts · 6.3 YPC · 58.3% success · -0.073 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Syracuse: 12 attempts · 5.2 YPC · 25.0% success · -0.034 raw PPA.	25	5.3	0	29.4%	42 / 5.6
Billy Edwards CFBD athlete 4592532 Week 6 vs Pittsburgh: 4 attempts · -3.5 YPC · 0.0% success · 0.275 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Duke: 9 attempts · 2.2 YPC · 42.9% success · 0.058 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Syracuse: 4 attempts · -3.5 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.542 raw PPA.	17	-0.5	7	20.0%	33 / 0.9
Benjamin Hall CFBD athlete 5008017 Week 6 vs Pittsburgh: 12 attempts · 2.1 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.365 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Duke: 2 attempts · 3.5 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.138 raw PPA.	14	2.3	0	16.5%	57 / 5.0
Kaleb Jackson CFBD athlete 4870839 Week 7 vs Duke: 1 attempts · 1.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.235 raw PPA.	1	1.0	0	1.2%	1 / 1.0

Team-only and unresolved attempts are outside this player population. Game PPA and success rates retain provider denominators; they are not pooled across games. Missing appearances do not establish player availability. This three-game window is separate from the 100-play form window.

Team matchup statistics

Offense vs defense

2026 season to date · through Week 8, captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.

Measure	North CarolinaOffense	MiamiDefense	MiamiOffense	North CarolinaDefense
PPA/play	+0.11 39th	+0.00 79th	+0.39 100th	+0.04 64th
Success rate	44.8% 62nd	35.3% 86th	51.9% 99th	42.7% 30th
Explosiveness	1.12 10th	1.31 17th	1.34 92nd	1.06 97th
Standard-down PPA/play	+0.08 41st	-0.09 83rd	+0.39 100th	+0.04 45th
Passing-down PPA/play	+0.19 34th	+0.16 54th	+0.38 77th	+0.03 88th
Havoc allowed / created	14.5% 50th	14.7% 33rd	8.4% 99th	12.7% 11th

Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.

CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR

Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions

Preview captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:14:39 AM CDT · assembled Oct 30, 2026, 6:14:39 AM CDT

Checking current kickoff time before showing captured pregame metrics.

2026 kicker PAAR

Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:13:38 AM CDT.

Rece Verhoff · North Carolina · PAAR 1.68 · 4 attempts
Jake Weinberg · Miami · PAAR 3.52 · 7 attempts
Aeron Burrell · North Carolina · PAAR -4.19 · 7 attempts

Player recent form

CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.

Checking kickoff before showing recent player metrics.

Captured line movement

Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Oct 30, 2026, 16:20:05 CDT · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.

Loading recorded line history… Open this game’s recorded history.

Line history & team context

Card snapshot lines

North Carolina spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.

DraftKings

CFBD-reported opening: +14.5 · Snapshot spread: +14

First locally observed: +14.5 · captured Oct 22, 2026, 06:01:46 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: c83aae5cdf39bf646f57eb0000ff0ed8f701059d814361b444e46ff57d8d3b4d

Total · CFBD-reported opening: 50.5 · Snapshot total: 53.5

Total · First locally observed: 50.5 · captured Oct 22, 2026, 06:01:46 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Total observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: c83aae5cdf39bf646f57eb0000ff0ed8f701059d814361b444e46ff57d8d3b4d

Home moneyline · Snapshot: +455 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Home moneyline · First locally observed: +455 · captured Oct 22, 2026, 06:01:46 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Home moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: c83aae5cdf39bf646f57eb0000ff0ed8f701059d814361b444e46ff57d8d3b4d

Away moneyline · Snapshot: -625 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Away moneyline · First locally observed: -625 · captured Oct 22, 2026, 06:01:46 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Away moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: c83aae5cdf39bf646f57eb0000ff0ed8f701059d814361b444e46ff57d8d3b4d

Bovada

CFBD-reported opening: +14.5 · Snapshot spread: +14

First locally observed: +14.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7

Total · CFBD-reported opening: 53 · Snapshot total: 53

Total · First locally observed: 53 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Total observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7

Home moneyline · Snapshot: +475 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Home moneyline · First locally observed: +475 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Home moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7

Away moneyline · Snapshot: -700 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Away moneyline · First locally observed: -700 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Away moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7

North Carolina

Net adjusted EPA/play +0.0 · 8 rated weeks · ACC

61st FBS percentile

Miami

Net adjusted EPA/play +0.2 · 8 rated weeks · ACC

94th FBS percentile

Travel

Miami travels 691 miles (longer than half of road trips, 2017–2025) · no time-zone change.

Distance uses the campuses because this schedule has no venue.

The 2017–2025 study found no overall ATS edge. Distance and time-zone groups cover near a coin flip. The 2,500+ mile group is above break-even but dominated by Hawai'i trips, so it is not a betting rule.

Series history

North Carolina leads 16–11 in 27 meetings since 1946.

2023Miami at North Carolina31–41 · North Carolina
2022North Carolina at Miami27–24 · North Carolina
2021Miami at North Carolina42–45 · North Carolina
2020North Carolina at Miami62–26 · North Carolina
2019Miami at North Carolina25–28 · North Carolina
2018North Carolina at Miami10–47 · Miami

CFBD matchup data Last 6 meetings shown. N marks a neutral site. History is not a projection input.

Team style charts

Model output, not betting advice. Historical hit rates are small-sample backtests; several edge buckets lose money at -110. Flat units only.