Week 9 · 2026

Virginia at Wake Forest

Visual game report

Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.

Player production & success

CFBD regular season · through week 8 · observed 2026-10-30 UTC. Captured before kickoff.

Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.

Virginia

Window: 2026-10-23 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported) · 2026-10-10 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-31T19:45:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Beau Pribula QB 3 games	36.6% 26 / 71 plays	40.6% 13 / 32 plays
Jekail Middlebrook RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	48.1% 26 / 54 plays
Xay Davis RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	33.3% 6 / 18 plays
Xavier Brown RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	66.7% 2 / 3 plays
Noah Vaughn RB 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 1 plays
Solomon Beebe RB 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 1 plays
Jack Rhodes WR 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 1 plays

Traditional season production · 75 players

Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Anthony Britton · DT

CFBD athlete 5089413

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 26

Beau Pribula · QB

CFBD athlete 4685696

fumbles · FUM: 3
fumbles · LOST: 2
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 183
passing · COMPLETIONS: 119
passing · INT: 2
passing · PCT: 0.650
passing · TD: 13
passing · YDS: 1375
passing · YPA: 7.5
rushing · CAR: 89
rushing · LONG: 22
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 188
rushing · YPC: 2.1

Billy Koudelka · DE

CFBD athlete 5219298

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 5

Brandyn Hillman · S

CFBD athlete 5103804

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 23
interceptions · AVG: 16.7
interceptions · INT: 3
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 50

Caleb Hardy · LB

CFBD athlete 5113180

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 8

Cayden Cook-Cash · LB

CFBD athlete 5219294

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Cazeem Moore · DE

CFBD athlete 5086542

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Chris Messmore · PK

CFBD athlete 5443772

kicking · FGA: 0
kicking · FGM: 0
kicking · LONG: 0
kicking · PCT: 0
kicking · PTS: 1
kicking · XPA: 1
kicking · XPM: 1

Christian Ellis · S

CFBD athlete 4837327

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 11
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 23

Cole Geer · QB

CFBD athlete 5145789

passing · ATT: 7
passing · COMPLETIONS: 3
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.429
passing · TD: 1
passing · YDS: 45
passing · YPA: 6.4
rushing · CAR: 6
rushing · LONG: 6
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 19
rushing · YPC: 3.2

Connor Cox · TE

CFBD athlete 4923057

receiving · LONG: 7
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 7
receiving · YPR: 7.0

Corey Costner · S

CFBD athlete 5195479

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 9
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Dakota Twitty · TE

CFBD athlete 4685594

receiving · LONG: 25
receiving · REC: 10
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 103
receiving · YPR: 10.3

Dallas Brannon · LB

CFBD athlete 5212646

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Dane Wleklinski · OL

CFBD athlete 5157060

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Daniel Sparks · P

CFBD athlete 4689896

punting · In 20: 17
punting · LONG: 73
punting · NO: 36
punting · TB: 2
punting · YDS: 1840
punting · YPP: 51.1

Darrion Henry · DT

CFBD athlete 4430853

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 16

Dashawn Martin · WR

CFBD athlete 5222394

receiving · LONG: 47
receiving · REC: 17
receiving · TD: 5
receiving · YDS: 253
receiving · YPR: 14.9
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 14
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 14
rushing · YPC: 14.0

Devon Baxter · DE

CFBD athlete 5139094

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 1

Donavon Platt · DB

CFBD athlete 5082121

defensive · PD: 4
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 13

Eli Holstein · QB

CFBD athlete 4870819

passing · ATT: 18
passing · COMPLETIONS: 12
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.667
passing · TD: 3
passing · YDS: 180
passing · YPA: 10.0
rushing · CAR: 4
rushing · LONG: 5
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -9
rushing · YPC: -2.3

Elijah Slibeck · P

CFBD athlete 5092258

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Ethan Minter · S

CFBD athlete 5139080

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 29

Evan Ward · DE

CFBD athlete 5216074

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Ezekiel Larry · DE

CFBD athlete 5094038

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Fisher Camac · DE

CFBD athlete 4912224

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 5
defensive · SACKS: 2.0
defensive · SOLO: 11
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.5
defensive · TOT: 33

Gabe Sneed · DE

CFBD athlete 5150890

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Hayden Rollison · TE

CFBD athlete 5150896

receiving · LONG: 12
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 12
receiving · YPR: 12.0

Isaiah Harris · CB

CFBD athlete 5293032

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Isaiah Robinson · WR

CFBD athlete 5141657

receiving · LONG: 29
receiving · REC: 6
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 106
receiving · YPR: 17.7

Ja'Maric Morris · DB

CFBD athlete 5152179

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Jack Rhodes · WR

CFBD athlete 5294501

rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 0
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 0
rushing · YPC: 0.0

Jacobie Henderson · CB

CFBD athlete 4869804

defensive · PD: 5
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 20
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 40

Jacquon Gibson · WR

CFBD athlete 4900879

kickReturns · AVG: 27.4
kickReturns · LONG: 37
kickReturns · NO: 5
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 137
receiving · LONG: 30
receiving · REC: 10
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 117
receiving · YPR: 11.7

Jalen McNair · S

CFBD athlete 4433868

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Jason Hammond · DT

CFBD athlete 4870783

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 0

Jaylen Jones · S

CFBD athlete 5086498

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 7

Jekail Middlebrook · RB

CFBD athlete 5121721

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 12
receiving · REC: 12
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 78
receiving · YPR: 6.5
rushing · CAR: 105
rushing · LONG: 29
rushing · TD: 4
rushing · YDS: 513
rushing · YPC: 4.9

Jermarian Jackson · CB

CFBD athlete 5095116

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 7

Jewett Hayes · DE

CFBD athlete 5156385

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 8

John Rogers · TE

CFBD athlete 5143920

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 27
receiving · REC: 14
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 140
receiving · YPR: 10.0

Jonathan Allen · DT

CFBD athlete 5125721

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Josiah Abdullah · WR

CFBD athlete 5141351

puntReturns · AVG: 6.9
puntReturns · LONG: 13
puntReturns · NO: 8
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 55
receiving · LONG: 74
receiving · REC: 4
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 102
receiving · YPR: 25.5

Josiah Persinger · CB

CFBD athlete 5214353

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 4

Justin Ross · CB

CFBD athlete 5220493

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 20

Justin Rowe · LB

CFBD athlete 5210560

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 6
interceptions · AVG: 50.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 1
interceptions · YDS: 50

Justin Townsend · DL

CFBD athlete 4876514

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 3

Kameron Courtney · WR

CFBD athlete 5147376

receiving · LONG: 52
receiving · REC: 18
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 204
receiving · YPR: 11.3

Kamren Robinson · LB

CFBD athlete 5078423

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 13
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.5
defensive · TOT: 29
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Keke Adams · S

CFBD athlete 5219291

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 8
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 2
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Kervins Choute · DL

CFBD athlete 4690121

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 11

Kevin Chadwick Jr. · S

CFBD athlete 5188318

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Kevon Gray · CB

CFBD athlete 5147171

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Landon Danley · LB

CFBD athlete 5106061

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 15
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 28
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Lukas Sanker · DB

CFBD athlete 5214365

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Lukas Ungar · TE

CFBD athlete 4430954

receiving · LONG: 10
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 15
receiving · YPR: 7.5

Maddox Marcellus · LB

CFBD athlete 5153257

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 18
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.5
defensive · TOT: 38

Matthew Fobbs-White · DE

CFBD athlete 4918427

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 9
defensive · SACKS: 4.0
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 7.0
defensive · TOT: 28

Montino Williams · S

CFBD athlete 5294115

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 15
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 29

Myles Brown · LB

CFBD athlete 5176070

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 27

Nnanna Anyanwu · DE

CFBD athlete 5151319

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.0
defensive · TOT: 18

Noah Vaughn · RB

CFBD athlete 5078110

receiving · LONG: 6
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 6
receiving · YPR: 6.0
rushing · CAR: 28
rushing · LONG: 21
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 141
rushing · YPC: 5.0

Omillio Agard · CB

CFBD athlete 5079295

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 10

Patrick Campbell · DB

CFBD athlete 5085501

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Peyton Lewis · RB

CFBD athlete 5122553

rushing · CAR: 10
rushing · LONG: 8
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 17
rushing · YPC: 1.7

Rico Flores · WR

CFBD athlete 4870713

receiving · LONG: 26
receiving · REC: 12
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 158
receiving · YPR: 13.2

Sichan John · DT

CFBD athlete 5216634

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 17

Solomon Beebe · RB

CFBD athlete 5219693

kickReturns · AVG: 23.0
kickReturns · LONG: 23
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 23
receiving · LONG: 0
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: -3
receiving · YPR: -3.0
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 0
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 0
rushing · YPC: 0.0

Tekai Kirby · WR

CFBD athlete 5077816

receiving · LONG: 16
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 16
receiving · YPR: 16.0

Tylyric Coleman · WR

CFBD athlete 5085246

receiving · LONG: 20
receiving · REC: 10
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 89
receiving · YPR: 8.9

Will Bettridge · PK

CFBD athlete 4871220

kicking · FGA: 11
kicking · FGM: 8
kicking · LONG: 47
kicking · PCT: 0.727
kicking · PTS: 51
kicking · XPA: 27
kicking · XPM: 27

Willem Thurber · TE

CFBD athlete 5210204

receiving · LONG: 28
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 28
receiving · YPR: 28.0

Wyatt Rubinoff · LS

CFBD athlete 5226004

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Xavier Brown · RB

CFBD athlete 4873442

receiving · LONG: 45
receiving · REC: 6
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 79
receiving · YPR: 13.2
rushing · CAR: 34
rushing · LONG: 47
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 182
rushing · YPC: 5.4

Xay Davis · RB

CFBD athlete 5210729

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 35
receiving · REC: 7
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 90
receiving · YPR: 12.9
rushing · CAR: 50
rushing · LONG: 44
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 235
rushing · YPC: 4.7

Wake Forest

Window: 2026-10-18 (reported) · 2026-10-10 (reported) · 2026-10-03 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-31T19:45:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Giovanni Lopez QB 3 games	57.6% 49 / 85 plays	65.4% 17 / 26 plays
Ty Clark III RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	40.7% 11 / 27 plays
Deuce Lawrence RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	45.5% 10 / 22 plays
Jamar Searcy RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	57.1% 8 / 14 plays
Steele Pizzella QB 2 games	66.7% 4 / 6 plays	42.9% 3 / 7 plays
KD Daniels RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 3 plays
Ryan Henley RB 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	100.0% 2 / 2 plays
Drayden Dickmann WR 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 1 plays

Traditional season production · 66 players

Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Aiden Hall · LB

CFBD athlete 5105335

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 12
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.0
defensive · TOT: 46

Antonio Meeks · WR

CFBD athlete 5099305

receiving · LONG: 72
receiving · REC: 10
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 184
receiving · YPR: 18.4

Ashaad Williams · DB

CFBD athlete 4876915

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 24

Brandon Smiley · DL

CFBD athlete 5089576

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Braylon Johnson · DB

CFBD athlete 4921302

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 23
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 40
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Brian Blades · DB

CFBD athlete 4701270

defensive · PD: 4
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 18
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 29

Bryce Kania · WR

CFBD athlete 5216695

receiving · LONG: 24
receiving · REC: 4
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 53
receiving · YPR: 13.3

Buom Jock · LB

CFBD athlete 5092271

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Cade Holles · DL

CFBD athlete 5291750

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Camden Hardy · DL

CFBD athlete 5126291

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 6

Carlos Hernandez · WR

CFBD athlete 5153074

fumbles · FUM: 2
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
puntReturns · AVG: 6.5
puntReturns · LONG: 18
puntReturns · NO: 6
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 39
receiving · LONG: 78
receiving · REC: 49
receiving · TD: 4
receiving · YDS: 720
receiving · YPR: 14.7

Connor Calvert · PK

CFBD athlete 5228152

kicking · FGA: 11
kicking · FGM: 10
kicking · LONG: 44
kicking · PCT: 0.909
kicking · PTS: 58
kicking · XPA: 28
kicking · XPM: 28

D.J. Johnson · DL

CFBD athlete 5226707

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 2

Dallas Afalava · DL

CFBD athlete 5165145

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 1.0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.0
defensive · TOT: 16
interceptions · AVG: -3.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: -3

Davaughn Patterson · DB

CFBD athlete 5054378

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 15
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 40

Deuce Dyce · LB

CFBD athlete 5382532

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 11

Deuce Lawrence · RB

CFBD athlete 5382529

receiving · LONG: 14
receiving · REC: 7
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 49
receiving · YPR: 7.0
rushing · CAR: 63
rushing · LONG: 21
rushing · TD: 3
rushing · YDS: 307
rushing · YPC: 4.9

Devin Cook · DB

CFBD athlete 5139525

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Devin Goldston · WR

CFBD athlete 5291782

receiving · LONG: 51
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 51
receiving · YPR: 51.0

Dominick Barry · TE

CFBD athlete 5211200

receiving · LONG: 39
receiving · REC: 6
receiving · TD: 3
receiving · YDS: 116
receiving · YPR: 19.3

Drayden Dickmann · WR

CFBD athlete 5151274

receiving · LONG: 12
receiving · REC: 10
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 70
receiving · YPR: 7.0
rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 44
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 44
rushing · YPC: 22.0

Ethan Hyams · P

CFBD athlete 5382531

punting · In 20: 7
punting · LONG: 70
punting · NO: 21
punting · TB: 1
punting · YDS: 949
punting · YPP: 45.2

Frank Cusano · LB

CFBD athlete 5148414

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 11
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 41

Freddie Gillens · DB

CFBD athlete 5217436

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 7

Gabe Kirschke · DL

CFBD athlete 5089193

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 3
defensive · SOLO: 11
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 7.0
defensive · TOT: 23

Giovanni Lopez · QB

CFBD athlete 4920227

passing · ATT: 207
passing · COMPLETIONS: 140
passing · INT: 1
passing · PCT: 0.676
passing · TD: 17
passing · YDS: 1947
passing · YPA: 9.4
rushing · CAR: 63
rushing · LONG: 24
rushing · TD: 6
rushing · YDS: 254
rushing · YPC: 4.0

Hugh O'Brien · WR

CFBD athlete 5294107

receiving · LONG: 6
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 6
receiving · YPR: 6.0

Isaac Nelson · LB

CFBD athlete 5290775

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
puntReturns · AVG: 1.0
puntReturns · LONG: 1
puntReturns · NO: 1
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 1

Ja'Marion Kennedy · OL

CFBD athlete 5122003

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Jack Foley · WR

CFBD athlete 5239156

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 52
receiving · REC: 20
receiving · TD: 4
receiving · YDS: 373
receiving · YPR: 18.7
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 0
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -12
rushing · YPC: -12.0

Jamar Searcy · RB

CFBD athlete 5216505

receiving · LONG: 19
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 19
receiving · YPR: 19.0
rushing · CAR: 18
rushing · LONG: 29
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 120
rushing · YPC: 6.7

Jerron Blackwell · LB

CFBD athlete 5222669

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Joel Lowenberg · LB

CFBD athlete 5222552

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Josh Patterson · DB

CFBD athlete 5141591

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Josiah Pratt · DL

CFBD athlete 5216577

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

KD Daniels · RB

CFBD athlete 5222223

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
rushing · CAR: 7
rushing · LONG: 7
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 15
rushing · YPC: 2.1

Kadear Dembele · DL

CFBD athlete 5211906

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 2.0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.0
defensive · TOT: 8

Kalil Townes · DB

CFBD athlete 5294109

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Kameran Shanks · WR

CFBD athlete 5121666

puntReturns · AVG: 13.0
puntReturns · LONG: 26
puntReturns · NO: 2
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 26
receiving · LONG: 40
receiving · REC: 17
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 241
receiving · YPR: 14.2

Kamrean Johnson · TE

CFBD athlete 5086448

receiving · LONG: 17
receiving · REC: 9
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 64
receiving · YPR: 7.1

Kerrington Lee · DL

CFBD athlete 4924149

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Koredell Bartley · DB

CFBD athlete 5198458

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 23.2
kickReturns · LONG: 27
kickReturns · NO: 5
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 116

Landon Morris · TE

CFBD athlete 4683306

receiving · LONG: 13
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 13
receiving · YPR: 13.0

Langston Hardy · DL

CFBD athlete 4683727

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 4
defensive · SACKS: 5.5
defensive · SOLO: 13
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 10.0
defensive · TOT: 37

Lucas Smalls-Allen · DL

CFBD athlete 5291962

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Matt Herron · DL

CFBD athlete 5085622

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1.0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.0
defensive · TOT: 14

Matthew Lusardi · TE

CFBD athlete 5097169

kickReturns · AVG: 12.0
kickReturns · LONG: 12
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 12
receiving · LONG: 1
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 1
receiving · YPR: 1.0

Micah Bright · DB

CFBD athlete 5290950

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 9

Monroe Partin · LB

CFBD athlete 5290702

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Myles Turpin · DB

CFBD athlete 5142237

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 25

Rushuan Tongue · DB

CFBD athlete 4954451

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 17
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 28
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Ryan Henley · RB

CFBD athlete 5219007

kickReturns · AVG: 22.0
kickReturns · LONG: 24
kickReturns · NO: 3
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 66
rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 7
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 13
rushing · YPC: 6.5

Sascha Garcia · DB

CFBD athlete 5154020

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Somad Eaddy · DB

CFBD athlete 5290781

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 12
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 18
interceptions · AVG: 1.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 1

Steele Pizzella · QB

CFBD athlete 5141634

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 9
passing · COMPLETIONS: 6
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.667
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 85
passing · YPA: 9.4
receiving · LONG: 4
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 4
receiving · YPR: 4.0
rushing · CAR: 9
rushing · LONG: 10
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 29
rushing · YPC: 3.2

Sydir Mitchell · DL

CFBD athlete 4870908

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Travon West · DB

CFBD athlete 4921325

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 8

Ty Clark III · RB

CFBD athlete 5186586

receiving · LONG: 13
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 13
receiving · YPR: 13.0
rushing · CAR: 70
rushing · LONG: 57
rushing · TD: 4
rushing · YDS: 328
rushing · YPC: 4.7

Tyler Walton · DL

CFBD athlete 4954454

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 7

Vincent Firenze · LB

CFBD athlete 5156757

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 19
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4
defensive · TOT: 51

Walker Bryson · WR

CFBD athlete 5209348

receiving · LONG: 9
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 15
receiving · YPR: 7.5

Whittman Whaley · LB

CFBD athlete 5126850

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 9

Will Loerzel · TE

CFBD athlete 5155870

receiving · LONG: 15
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 40
receiving · YPR: 8.0

Zach Lohavichan · DL

CFBD athlete 4874358

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 4
defensive · SACKS: 2.5
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 7.5
defensive · TOT: 26

Zamari Stevenson · DB

CFBD athlete 4868600

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Zeek Jackson · WR

CFBD athlete 5177423

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Pregame weather

Decision-time forecast unavailable

No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.

Weather context

Weather record unavailable

Evidence cutoff: 2026-10-26T04:30:00+00:00. This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.

No matching weather context has been published for this game.

Verified pregame availability: Unavailable
Measurement units: Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
Forecast issue time: Unavailable
Forecast valid time: Unavailable

Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.

Latest published card · In-season model

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.

Pick at comparison line

Wake Forest -12.5

EPA-OLS history for 3-7 point gaps: 51% against the spread · below the 52.4% break-even at −110 · 175 games · 2025 · historical reference, not a cover probability.

CFBD median · DraftKings quote matches

EPA-OLS forecast · margin in points

Wake Forest by 18.61

6.11 points toward Wake Forest versus the spread. The gap is not a cover probability.

Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast

Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately

Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward Wake Forest.

Net EPA rating difference: +14.67
Fitted offset: +5.87
Fitted home field: -1.93

Reconciles to 18.61 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.

Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.

Fit 43a90c4d579143e4336475325da6c037c0829278871c947a48303983b181ca72 · inputs 12a1803c18b27351688a52e8cec8198085b298d32cd1fb6196dd88d2bbf52ea4 · training 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517 · forecast 3eb8bca7a3f5e4281ef6a88bc4a229cd257bf3321c5f9d81c232e1cebf897927 · through week 8.

What changed?

12 saved cards for this game

Earlier saved card

No change in spread, forecast or model gap.

The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.

Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.

Home team: Wake Forest · all values in points
Recorded value	Earlier	Latest
Market spread	-12.5	-12.5
Model spread	-18.61	-18.61
Model gap	+6.11	+6.11

Negative spreads favor Wake Forest; positive model gap favors them too.

Capture times & sources

Earlier saved card

Generated Oct 29, 2026, 06:13:15 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Oct 29, 2026, 06:02:06 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Latest published card

Generated Oct 30, 2026, 06:10:26 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Model gap = market spread minus model spread.

This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.

Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.

Earlier saved card SHA-256: e2870225a3550ae3bff530e07f507a37ae8d297571a1fb3ae0be6cba56aae72d
Odds source SHA-256: c3afde8edfd04c38da42b18ab61b68542f93145177f25e3612c5230361aae058
Latest published card SHA-256: 907219f79e16b585a5fe31cf6748ec05ab06f7cd820077da867137c7509faba4
Odds source SHA-256: 979caa9e279ac4fb8cf2a315090127f7866efb485202ff3448873ffea01f6148

View recorded snapshot data

Model context & pick method

Card generated Oct 30, 2026, 06:10:26 CDT. Captured prices are not live quotes.

Output:: Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
Model:: EPA-OLS
Training:: 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8; 229 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Features:: EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 12a1803c18b27351688a52e8cec8198085b298d32cd1fb6196dd88d2bbf52ea4. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Evaluation:: EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.

Training: 229 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8.

Training-only RMSE: 15.64 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.

Margins are not projected scores.

Pick logic

Wake Forest -12.5

Model gap +6.1 points

A pick needs a gap of at least 3.0 points, either way. Positive gaps favor Wake Forest.

Win probabilities · separate sources

Wake Forest win probability by source

EPA-OLS calibrated win probability: Unavailable; Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
CFBD market-based probability: 81%; Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:02:01 CDT; CFBD source spread: Wake Forest -12.5
Stacked ensemble: 82%; Stacked ensemble from the model pack

Explain this StackedEnsemble probability

Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.

Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward Wake Forest.

home elo: +11.79 (path difference 10.82)
home adjusted success: +6.94 (path difference 3.03)
home adjusted passing epa: +6.22 (path difference 8.82)
home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +6.05 (path difference 1.54)
home adjusted passing epa allowed: +4.78 (path difference 2.84)
home adjusted rushing epa allowed: +4.17 (path difference 6.39)
home adjusted open field yards allowed: +4.00 (path difference 2.86)
away adjusted passing down success: -3.90 (path difference 0.53)
home adjusted second level yards: +3.07 (path difference 2.95)
away adjusted epa: +2.96 (path difference 4.99)
home adjusted epa allowed: -2.87 (path difference 5.42)
home adjusted passing down success allowed: -2.60 (path difference 1.03)
away adjusted passing down success allowed: -2.36 (path difference 2.63)
away talent: -2.08 (path difference 1.09)
home talent: +1.96 (path difference 0.61)
home adjusted standard down success: +1.95 (path difference 0.96)
away adjusted epa allowed: -1.88 (path difference 2.38)
home adjusted explosiveness: +1.57 (path difference 0.95)
home adjusted open field yards: -1.41 (path difference 0.98)
home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: -1.31 (path difference 0.61)
away adjusted pass explosiveness: +1.21 (path difference 0.60)
away adjusted standard down success: +1.18 (path difference 0.44)
away adjusted passing epa allowed: +1.07 (path difference 0.70)
away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.98 (path difference 0.57)
home adjusted epa: -0.98 (path difference 2.48)
away adjusted rushing epa allowed: +0.96 (path difference 1.53)
home adjusted success allowed: +0.91 (path difference 0.71)
away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +0.91 (path difference 0.46)
away adjusted line yards: -0.90 (path difference 1.16)
away adjusted success: +0.88 (path difference 0.27)
away adjusted second level yards: +0.86 (path difference 0.58)
away adjusted passing epa: +0.66 (path difference 0.06)
away adjusted line yards allowed: +0.62 (path difference 1.22)
home adjusted second level yards allowed: +0.55 (path difference 1.34)
away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +0.50 (path difference 0.49)
home adjusted line yards: -0.47 (path difference 0.24)
away adjusted second level yards allowed: -0.46 (path difference 0.23)
home adjusted passing down success: -0.46 (path difference 0.49)
away adjusted success allowed: -0.44 (path difference 1.02)
home adjusted standard down success allowed: +0.44 (path difference 0.30)
home adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.39 (path difference 1.21)
away adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.39 (path difference 0.57)
home adjusted rushing epa: +0.34 (path difference 0.43)
home conference: -0.30 (path difference 1.11)
away adjusted rushing epa: +0.28 (path difference 0.56)
away adjusted open field yards: -0.16 (path difference 2.36)
away adjusted explosiveness: -0.14 (path difference 0.06)
away adjusted open field yards allowed: -0.10 (path difference 0.05)
away adjusted standard down success allowed: -0.09 (path difference 0.03)
week: -0.04 (path difference 1.01)
away conference: +0.04 (path difference 0.96)
home adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.03 (path difference 0.45)
home adjusted line yards allowed: -0.01 (path difference 0.46)
home adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.01 (path difference 0.00)
away elo: 0.00 (path difference 0.00)

Reconciles to 81.63 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.

Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.

Fit 1ad7d19a4f250d7f5c62cdf95b70289b6ffd1cf8bdf8feb12b8623f27e5aa234 · inputs 2b117ad9108a12456ee50df125d5d06be2172bb2b2e96b8f531a034895b7583d · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast ea94d76099c51aac90e74a23f55dea3a6a199856f6601c282281a9c88bdb672c · through week 8.

Output:: Home win probability (%), display only
Model:: StackedEnsemble
Training:: Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
Features:: Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Evaluation:: Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record

The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.

Rushing workload · last three team games

CFBD individually attributed rushing attempts, including attributed sacks. Captured before kickoff; descriptive context, separate from the forecast. Through 2026-10-30 UTC.

Virginia

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 117 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Jekail Middlebrook CFBD athlete 5121721 Week 6 vs Syracuse: 16 attempts · 4.1 YPC · 43.8% success · 0.435 raw PPA. Week 7 vs SMU: 14 attempts · 4.2 YPC · 64.3% success · 0.315 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Duke: 24 attempts · 4.9 YPC · 41.7% success · 0.250 raw PPA.	54	4.5	0	46.2%	104 / 4.7
Beau Pribula CFBD athlete 4685696 Week 6 vs Syracuse: 9 attempts · 3.8 YPC · 62.5% success · 0.145 raw PPA. Week 7 vs SMU: 10 attempts · 2.5 YPC · 22.2% success · 0.238 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Duke: 20 attempts · 3.7 YPC · 37.5% success · -0.090 raw PPA.	39	3.4	6	33.3%	85 / 2.4
Xay Davis CFBD athlete 5210729 Week 6 vs Syracuse: 6 attempts · 6.5 YPC · 66.7% success · 0.292 raw PPA. Week 7 vs SMU: 7 attempts · 4.9 YPC · 28.6% success · 0.129 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Duke: 5 attempts · 0.4 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.493 raw PPA.	18	4.2	0	15.4%	50 / 4.7
Xavier Brown CFBD athlete 4873442 Week 6 vs Syracuse: 1 attempts · 3.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.207 raw PPA. Week 7 vs SMU: 1 attempts · 3.0 YPC · 100.0% success · -0.394 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Duke: 1 attempts · 10.0 YPC · 100.0% success · -0.247 raw PPA.	3	5.3	0	2.6%	34 / 5.4
Noah Vaughn CFBD athlete 5078110 Week 6 vs Syracuse: 1 attempts · 0.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -1.163 raw PPA.	1	0.0	0	0.9%	28 / 5.0

Wake Forest

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 105 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Giovanni Lopez CFBD athlete 4920227 Week 5 vs Stanford: 12 attempts · 7.3 YPC · 81.8% success · 1.469 raw PPA. Week 6 vs NC State: 8 attempts · 1.3 YPC · 42.9% success · 0.718 raw PPA. Week 7 vs California: 8 attempts · 6.4 YPC · 62.5% success · 0.773 raw PPA.	28	5.3	2	26.7%	61 / 4.1
Ty Clark III CFBD athlete 5186586 Week 5 vs Stanford: 7 attempts · 3.3 YPC · 57.1% success · 0.062 raw PPA. Week 6 vs NC State: 12 attempts · 1.4 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.543 raw PPA. Week 7 vs California: 8 attempts · 6.6 YPC · 37.5% success · 0.167 raw PPA.	27	3.4	0	25.7%	68 / 4.6
Deuce Lawrence CFBD athlete 5382529 Week 5 vs Stanford: 6 attempts · 7.8 YPC · 83.3% success · 0.826 raw PPA. Week 6 vs NC State: 8 attempts · 5.8 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.415 raw PPA. Week 7 vs California: 8 attempts · 3.3 YPC · 12.5% success · -0.171 raw PPA.	22	5.4	0	21.0%	63 / 4.9
Jamar Searcy CFBD athlete 5216505 Week 5 vs Stanford: 5 attempts · 2.8 YPC · 20.0% success · 0.256 raw PPA. Week 6 vs NC State: 4 attempts · 7.0 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.217 raw PPA. Week 7 vs California: 5 attempts · 12.2 YPC · 100.0% success · 1.198 raw PPA.	14	7.4	0	13.3%	18 / 6.7
Steele Pizzella CFBD athlete 5141634 Week 5 vs Stanford: 3 attempts · 5.7 YPC · 66.7% success · 0.630 raw PPA. Week 7 vs California: 4 attempts · 3.8 YPC · 25.0% success · 0.250 raw PPA.	7	4.6	0	6.7%	8 / 3.1

Team-only and unresolved attempts are outside this player population. Game PPA and success rates retain provider denominators; they are not pooled across games. Missing appearances do not establish player availability. This three-game window is separate from the 100-play form window.

Team matchup statistics

Offense vs defense

2026 season to date · through Week 8, captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.

Measure	Wake ForestOffense	VirginiaDefense	VirginiaOffense	Wake ForestDefense
PPA/play	+0.34 98th	+0.02 72nd	+0.14 49th	+0.04 61st
Success rate	48.0% 83rd	38.2% 69th	42.5% 45th	42.0% 37th
Explosiveness	1.31 82nd	1.17 74th	1.16 20th	1.04 98th
Standard-down PPA/play	+0.24 92nd	-0.08 81st	+0.11 57th	+0.00 61st
Passing-down PPA/play	+0.57 98th	+0.21 42nd	+0.20 38th	+0.12 68th
Havoc allowed / created	10.1% 96th	16.6% 61st	13.5% 71st	15.5% 47th

Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.

CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR

Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions

Preview captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:14:21 AM CDT · assembled Oct 30, 2026, 6:14:21 AM CDT

Checking current kickoff time before showing captured pregame metrics.

2026 kicker PAAR

Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:13:38 AM CDT.

Will Bettridge · Virginia · PAAR 0.28 · 11 attempts
Connor Calvert · Wake Forest · PAAR 2.51 · 11 attempts

Player recent form

CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.

Checking kickoff before showing recent player metrics.

Captured line movement

Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Oct 30, 2026, 16:20:05 CDT · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.

Loading recorded line history… Open this game’s recorded history.

Line history & team context

Card snapshot lines

Wake Forest spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.

DraftKings

CFBD-reported opening: -13.5 · Snapshot spread: -12.5

First locally observed: -13.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: a8c42f976191b616f9a7a2f6dec7255a67c83761cfa6f554b313d2e394aa9c88

Total · CFBD-reported opening: 49.5 · Snapshot total: 48.5

Total · First locally observed: 49.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Total observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: a8c42f976191b616f9a7a2f6dec7255a67c83761cfa6f554b313d2e394aa9c88

Home moneyline · Snapshot: -520 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Home moneyline · First locally observed: -500 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Home moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: a8c42f976191b616f9a7a2f6dec7255a67c83761cfa6f554b313d2e394aa9c88

Away moneyline · Snapshot: +390 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Away moneyline · First locally observed: +380 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Away moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: a8c42f976191b616f9a7a2f6dec7255a67c83761cfa6f554b313d2e394aa9c88

Bovada

CFBD-reported opening: -14 · Snapshot spread: -12.5

First locally observed: -14 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7

Total · CFBD-reported opening: 49.5 · Snapshot total: 48.5

Total · First locally observed: 49.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Total observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7

Home moneyline · Snapshot: -650 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Home moneyline · First locally observed: -650 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Home moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7

Away moneyline · Snapshot: +450 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Away moneyline · First locally observed: +450 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Away moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7

Wake Forest

Net adjusted EPA/play +0.2 · 8 rated weeks · ACC

93rd FBS percentile

Virginia

Net adjusted EPA/play -0.0 · 8 rated weeks · ACC

42nd FBS percentile

Travel

Virginia travels 163 miles (shorter than half of road trips, 2017–2025) · no time-zone change.

Distance uses the campuses because this schedule has no venue.

The 2017–2025 study found no overall ATS edge. Distance and time-zone groups cover near a coin flip. The 2,500+ mile group is above break-even but dominated by Hawai'i trips, so it is not a betting rule.

Series history

Virginia leads 34–18 in 52 meetings since 1911.

2025Wake Forest at Virginia16–9 · Wake Forest
2024Virginia at Wake Forest31–30 · Virginia
2021Wake Forest at Virginia37–17 · Wake Forest
2020Virginia at Wake Forest23–40 · Wake Forest
2016Virginia at Wake Forest20–27 · Wake Forest
2012Wake Forest at Virginia16–10 · Wake Forest

CFBD matchup data Last 6 meetings shown. N marks a neutral site. History is not a projection input.

Team style charts

Model output, not betting advice. Historical hit rates are small-sample backtests; several edge buckets lose money at -110. Flat units only.