Week 10 · 2026
North Carolina at UConn
Visual game report
Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.
Player production & success
CFBD regular season · through week 9 · observed 2026-11-06 UTC. Captured before kickoff.
Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.
North Carolina
Window: 2026-10-31 (reported) · 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-07T17:00:00+00:00.
| Player | Passing | Rushing |
|---|---|---|
| Billy Edwards QB 3 games | 57.3% 63 / 110 plays | 46.2% 6 / 13 plays |
| Demon June RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 50.0% 17 / 34 plays |
| Jaylen McGill RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 37.9% 11 / 29 plays |
| Benjamin Hall RB 2 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 60.0% 3 / 5 plays |
| Kaleb Jackson RB 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 0.0% 0 / 1 plays |
| Adam Mccann-Gibbs P 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 0.0% 0 / 1 plays |
Traditional season production · 56 players
Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.
Adam Mccann-Gibbs · P
CFBD athlete 5292033
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 0
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- -16
- rushing · YPC
- -16.0
Ade Willie · DB
CFBD athlete 4812367
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 13
Aeron Burrell · PK
CFBD athlete 5139524
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- kicking · FGA
- 7
- kicking · FGM
- 4
- kicking · LONG
- 33
- kicking · PCT
- 0.571
- kicking · PTS
- 20
- kicking · XPA
- 8
- kicking · XPM
- 8
- punting · In 20
- 8
- punting · LONG
- 60
- punting · NO
- 25
- punting · TB
- 0
- punting · YDS
- 1054
- punting · YPP
- 42.2
Benjamin Hall · RB
CFBD athlete 5008017
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- receiving · LONG
- 26
- receiving · REC
- 5
- receiving · TD
- 2
- receiving · YDS
- 58
- receiving · YPR
- 11.6
- rushing · CAR
- 60
- rushing · LONG
- 25
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 296
- rushing · YPC
- 4.9
Billy Edwards · QB
CFBD athlete 4592532
- fumbles · FUM
- 2
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- passing · ATT
- 235
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 149
- passing · INT
- 5
- passing · PCT
- 0.634
- passing · TD
- 15
- passing · YDS
- 1871
- passing · YPA
- 8.0
- rushing · CAR
- 43
- rushing · LONG
- 17
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 10
- rushing · YPC
- 0.2
C.J. Sadler · WR
CFBD athlete 5159039
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- receiving · LONG
- 28
- receiving · REC
- 8
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 113
- receiving · YPR
- 14.1
Calvin Thomas · LB
CFBD athlete 5276966
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 6
- puntReturns · AVG
- 11.0
- puntReturns · LONG
- 11
- puntReturns · NO
- 1
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 11
Carson Sneed · TE
CFBD athlete 5159086
- receiving · LONG
- 11
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 11
- receiving · YPR
- 11.0
Charleston French · RB
CFBD athlete 5219169
- rushing · CAR
- 2
- rushing · LONG
- 5
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 4
- rushing · YPC
- 2.0
Coleman Bryson · DB
CFBD athlete 4781738
- defensive · PD
- 3
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 10
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 22
Crew Davis · RB
CFBD athlete 5265173
- receiving · LONG
- 4
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 4
- receiving · YPR
- 4.0
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 3
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 3
- rushing · YPC
- 3.0
DQ Forkpa · LB
CFBD athlete 5272289
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
David Jackson III · DL
CFBD athlete 5273717
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Demon June · RB
CFBD athlete 5228607
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- kickReturns · AVG
- 15.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 15
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 15
- receiving · LONG
- 20
- receiving · REC
- 6
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 64
- receiving · YPR
- 10.7
- rushing · CAR
- 72
- rushing · LONG
- 25
- rushing · TD
- 8
- rushing · YDS
- 289
- rushing · YPC
- 4.0
Derek Mcdonald · LB
CFBD athlete 4683224
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 31
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2
- defensive · TOT
- 82
Donovan Hoilette · DL
CFBD athlete 4877894
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 3
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 9
Emmanuel Nwaiwu · DL
CFBD athlete 5265566
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Gregory Smith · DB
CFBD athlete 5181309
- defensive · PD
- 4
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 26
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 48
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
- interceptions · AVG
- 8.3
- interceptions · INT
- 3
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 25
Isaiah Johnson · DL
CFBD athlete 5086646
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 18
JacQawn McRoy · OL
CFBD athlete 5079586
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Jaden Jefferson · WR
CFBD athlete 5215379
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 1
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
- kickReturns · AVG
- 43.3
- kickReturns · LONG
- 98
- kickReturns · NO
- 3
- kickReturns · TD
- 1
- kickReturns · YDS
- 130
Jaiden Patterson · DB
CFBD athlete 5136504
- defensive · PD
- 6
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 28
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 40
Jake Bauer · LB
CFBD athlete 5264739
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
Jakob Weatherspoon · DB
CFBD athlete 5209393
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Jalon Thompson · DB
CFBD athlete 5127733
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 6
Jamarrion Gordon · DB
CFBD athlete 5161016
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
Javion Butts · DB
CFBD athlete 5209388
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 15
Jaylen Harvey · DL
CFBD athlete 5079439
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 5
- defensive · SACKS
- 2
- defensive · SOLO
- 13
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 6.5
- defensive · TOT
- 28
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 2
Jaylen McGill · RB
CFBD athlete 5161835
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- receiving · LONG
- 28
- receiving · REC
- 9
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 102
- receiving · YPR
- 11.3
- rushing · CAR
- 47
- rushing · LONG
- 24
- rushing · TD
- 2
- rushing · YDS
- 246
- rushing · YPC
- 5.2
Jaziel Hart · DB
CFBD athlete 5245067
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 6
Jelani Thurman · TE
CFBD athlete 4871039
- receiving · LONG
- 35
- receiving · REC
- 38
- receiving · TD
- 6
- receiving · YDS
- 461
- receiving · YPR
- 12.1
Jo Jo Troupe · RB
CFBD athlete 5198251
- kickReturns · AVG
- 24.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 24
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 24
- puntReturns · AVG
- 8.0
- puntReturns · LONG
- 8
- puntReturns · NO
- 1
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 8
- rushing · CAR
- 5
- rushing · LONG
- 14
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 20
- rushing · YPC
- 4.0
Jonathan Agumadu · LB
CFBD athlete 5149828
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 14
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 32
Jordan Shipp · WR
CFBD athlete 5079687
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- receiving · LONG
- 49
- receiving · REC
- 45
- receiving · TD
- 3
- receiving · YDS
- 587
- receiving · YPR
- 13.0
Jordan Washington · TE
CFBD athlete 5146756
- receiving · LONG
- 8
- receiving · REC
- 3
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 23
- receiving · YPR
- 7.7
Kaleb Cost · DB
CFBD athlete 4870671
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 11
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 20
Kaleb Jackson · RB
CFBD athlete 4870839
- kickReturns · AVG
- 9.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 9
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 9
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 1
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 1
- rushing · YPC
- 1.0
Kenton Dopson III · DB
CFBD athlete 5280069
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 16
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 25
- interceptions · AVG
- 0.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 0
Khristian Dunbar-Hawkins · DB
CFBD athlete 5079416
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
Leroy Jackson · DL
CFBD athlete 5146953
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 15
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 48
Mason Humphrey · WR
CFBD athlete 5152717
- receiving · LONG
- 17
- receiving · REC
- 5
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 57
- receiving · YPR
- 11.4
Melkart Abou-Jaoude · DL
CFBD athlete 5086966
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 7
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 5
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 13
Miles O'Neill · QB
CFBD athlete 5145396
- passing · ATT
- 6
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 3
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 0.500
- passing · TD
- 0
- passing · YDS
- 22
- passing · YPA
- 3.7
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 15
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 15
- rushing · YPC
- 15.0
Nicco Maggio · DL
CFBD athlete 5144163
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 6
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 12
Nyqir Helton · WR
CFBD athlete 5214654
- receiving · LONG
- 10
- receiving · REC
- 4
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 34
- receiving · YPR
- 8.5
Peyton Seelmann · LB
CFBD athlete 5226835
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 2.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 29
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3.0
- defensive · TOT
- 73
Peyton Waters · DB
CFBD athlete 5127877
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 13
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 22
Rece Verhoff · PK
CFBD athlete 5082559
- kicking · FGA
- 4
- kicking · FGM
- 4
- kicking · LONG
- 39
- kicking · PCT
- 1.000
- kicking · PTS
- 28
- kicking · XPA
- 17
- kicking · XPM
- 16
Shamar Easter · TE
CFBD athlete 4870709
- receiving · LONG
- 75
- receiving · REC
- 9
- receiving · TD
- 2
- receiving · YDS
- 156
- receiving · YPR
- 17.3
Timir Hickman-Collins · LB
CFBD athlete 5218248
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 8
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 18
Tre Miller · DB
CFBD athlete 5078061
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 9
- interceptions · AVG
- 18.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 18
Trech Kekahuna · WR
CFBD athlete 5077266
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- puntReturns · AVG
- 7.0
- puntReturns · LONG
- 15
- puntReturns · NO
- 7
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 49
- receiving · LONG
- 26
- receiving · REC
- 17
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 219
- receiving · YPR
- 12.9
Trey Giddens · DL
CFBD athlete 5265448
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 6
Xavier Jackson · DB
CFBD athlete 5290762
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Xavier Lewis · DL
CFBD athlete 5294564
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 5
- defensive · SACKS
- 7.0
- defensive · SOLO
- 16
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 10.0
- defensive · TOT
- 44
Zamaurious Robertson · WR
CFBD athlete 5279149
- receiving · LONG
- 4
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 4
- receiving · YPR
- 4.0
UConn
Window: 2026-10-31 (reported) · 2026-10-23 (reported) · 2026-10-10 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-07T17:00:00+00:00.
| Player | Passing | Rushing |
|---|---|---|
| Kalieb Osborne QB 3 games | 46.6% 41 / 88 plays | 58.3% 14 / 24 plays |
| Cyncir Bowers RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 37.8% 14 / 37 plays |
| Kenji Christian RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 50.0% 9 / 18 plays |
| Trey Cornist RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 64.3% 9 / 14 plays |
| Jaden Hart RB 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 0.0% 0 / 1 plays |
Traditional season production · 62 players
Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.
Alex Godavitarne · TE
CFBD athlete 5221596
- receiving · LONG
- 55
- receiving · REC
- 5
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 122
- receiving · YPR
- 24.4
Anas Luqman · DL
CFBD athlete 5084343
- defensive · PD
- 3
- defensive · QB HUR
- 3
- defensive · SACKS
- 2.0
- defensive · SOLO
- 12
- defensive · TD
- 1
- defensive · TFL
- 4.5
- defensive · TOT
- 22
- interceptions · AVG
- 24.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 1
- interceptions · YDS
- 24
Andrew Laurich · DL
CFBD athlete 4924147
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 6
Avery Dunn · DL
CFBD athlete 4604319
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Braedyn Moore · DB
CFBD athlete 4921112
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 21
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 40
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
- interceptions · AVG
- 24.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 24
Cam Abshire · WR
CFBD athlete 5278798
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- receiving · LONG
- 42
- receiving · REC
- 4
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 78
- receiving · YPR
- 19.5
Chamberlain Campbell · DE
CFBD athlete 5125554
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Cyncir Bowers · RB
CFBD athlete 5296247
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- kickReturns · AVG
- 15.5
- kickReturns · LONG
- 20
- kickReturns · NO
- 2
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 31
- receiving · LONG
- 18
- receiving · REC
- 7
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 59
- receiving · YPR
- 8.4
- rushing · CAR
- 84
- rushing · LONG
- 71
- rushing · TD
- 7
- rushing · YDS
- 571
- rushing · YPC
- 6.8
Desmond Aladuge · DT
CFBD athlete 5077896
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 3
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 11
Drew Kron · WR
CFBD athlete 5293820
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Esean Carter · DT
CFBD athlete 4587719
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 6
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 15
Ethan Hogg · LB
CFBD athlete 5193053
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Hayden Pegg · LB
CFBD athlete 5150459
- defensive · PD
- 3
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 2
- defensive · SOLO
- 28
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3
- defensive · TOT
- 56
Jack O'Connor · PK
CFBD athlete 5447159
- kicking · FGA
- 7
- kicking · FGM
- 4
- kicking · LONG
- 46
- kicking · PCT
- 0.571
- kicking · PTS
- 47
- kicking · XPA
- 37
- kicking · XPM
- 35
Jaden Hart · RB
CFBD athlete 5084906
- receiving · LONG
- 2
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 2
- receiving · YPR
- 2.0
- rushing · CAR
- 5
- rushing · LONG
- 6
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 16
- rushing · YPC
- 3.2
Jalen Brown · DB
CFBD athlete 5447153
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Jalil Martin · DB
CFBD athlete 4900905
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 14
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 24
Javon Brown · WR
CFBD athlete 5193720
- receiving · LONG
- 29
- receiving · REC
- 14
- receiving · TD
- 2
- receiving · YDS
- 202
- receiving · YPR
- 14.4
Jayden Davis · DB
CFBD athlete 5082306
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 11
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 27
Jayden Jones · LB
CFBD athlete 5211892
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Jayden Price · DB
CFBD athlete 5222645
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 23
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 31
- interceptions · AVG
- 0.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 0
Jediyah Willoughby · WR
CFBD athlete 5125750
- receiving · LONG
- 41
- receiving · REC
- 15
- receiving · TD
- 2
- receiving · YDS
- 271
- receiving · YPR
- 18.1
John Lista · LB
CFBD athlete 5084414
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 22
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 5.0
- defensive · TOT
- 58
Joshua Mickens · DE
CFBD athlete 4870938
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 3.0
- defensive · SOLO
- 6
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3.5
- defensive · TOT
- 16
Julian Allen · WR
CFBD athlete 5151689
- kickReturns · AVG
- 24.3
- kickReturns · LONG
- 48
- kickReturns · NO
- 3
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 73
- puntReturns · AVG
- 12.5
- puntReturns · LONG
- 49
- puntReturns · NO
- 6
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 75
- receiving · LONG
- 21
- receiving · REC
- 7
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 57
- receiving · YPR
- 8.1
K'Von Sherman · LB
CFBD athlete 5220131
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 3.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 24
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 8.0
- defensive · TOT
- 56
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Kalieb Osborne · QB
CFBD athlete 5079619
- fumbles · FUM
- 6
- fumbles · LOST
- 3
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- passing · ATT
- 215
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 129
- passing · INT
- 2
- passing · PCT
- 0.600
- passing · TD
- 14
- passing · YDS
- 1857
- passing · YPA
- 8.6
- rushing · CAR
- 89
- rushing · LONG
- 38
- rushing · TD
- 7
- rushing · YDS
- 346
- rushing · YPC
- 3.9
Kamren Flowers · WR
CFBD athlete 5141448
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- receiving · LONG
- 30
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 30
- receiving · YPR
- 30.0
Kenji Christian · RB
CFBD athlete 4689529
- kickReturns · AVG
- 23.5
- kickReturns · LONG
- 32
- kickReturns · NO
- 4
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 94
- receiving · LONG
- 22
- receiving · REC
- 12
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 134
- receiving · YPR
- 11.2
- rushing · CAR
- 55
- rushing · LONG
- 46
- rushing · TD
- 3
- rushing · YDS
- 306
- rushing · YPC
- 5.6
Ky Wilson · WR
CFBD athlete 5300740
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- kickReturns · AVG
- 27.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 27
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 27
- puntReturns · AVG
- 0.0
- puntReturns · LONG
- 0
- puntReturns · NO
- 1
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 0
- receiving · LONG
- 33
- receiving · REC
- 10
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 131
- receiving · YPR
- 13.1
Kylish Hicks · LB
CFBD athlete 4912043
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 7
Logan Barnes · WR
CFBD athlete 5302867
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Luke Murphy · LB
CFBD athlete 4592781
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 14
Martece Smith · DB
CFBD athlete 5278568
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Mateo Kipke · DL
CFBD athlete 5302872
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Matt Hoffman · DL
CFBD athlete 5086043
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 6
Matt Ragan · TE
CFBD athlete 4698471
- receiving · LONG
- 20
- receiving · REC
- 8
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 96
- receiving · YPR
- 12.0
Melvin Hills · DL
CFBD athlete 5130411
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 5
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 15
Moussa Kane · DB
CFBD athlete 4870832
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Odera Orizu · DE
CFBD athlete 5151804
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Raymond Liggins III · WR
CFBD athlete 5363611
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- puntReturns · AVG
- -1.0
- puntReturns · LONG
- 0
- puntReturns · NO
- 2
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- -2
- receiving · LONG
- 60
- receiving · REC
- 7
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 82
- receiving · YPR
- 11.7
Renick Dorilas · DB
CFBD athlete 5166798
- defensive · PD
- 3
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 11
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 16
- interceptions · AVG
- 0.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 0
Rickey Williams · LB
CFBD athlete 5147933
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2
- defensive · TOT
- 21
Rodarion Tellez · DL
CFBD athlete 5203845
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 0
Ryder Treadway · WR
CFBD athlete 5228882
- receiving · LONG
- 38
- receiving · REC
- 19
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 255
- receiving · YPR
- 13.4
Saxton Suchanic · DB
CFBD athlete 5215700
- defensive · PD
- 5
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 14
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 28
Shamar Porter · WR
CFBD athlete 4870959
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 1
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 0
- puntReturns · AVG
- 24.0
- puntReturns · LONG
- 24
- puntReturns · NO
- 1
- puntReturns · TD
- 1
- puntReturns · YDS
- 24
- receiving · LONG
- 53
- receiving · REC
- 16
- receiving · TD
- 3
- receiving · YDS
- 308
- receiving · YPR
- 19.3
Shamar Riser-Pressley · DL
CFBD athlete 5146913
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 8
Shawn Simeon · RB
CFBD athlete 5203601
- kickReturns · AVG
- 25.5
- kickReturns · LONG
- 35
- kickReturns · NO
- 2
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 51
- rushing · CAR
- 8
- rushing · LONG
- 13
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 45
- rushing · YPC
- 5.6
Soren Rief · RB
CFBD athlete 5296866
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Steve Miller · DB
CFBD athlete 5214510
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
Tahjae Mullix · DL
CFBD athlete 5089304
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 6
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.0
- defensive · TOT
- 31
Tommy Warner · P
CFBD athlete 5382615
- punting · In 20
- 12
- punting · LONG
- 56
- punting · NO
- 30
- punting · TB
- 1
- punting · YDS
- 1247
- punting · YPP
- 41.6
Tracy Revels · DB
CFBD athlete 4950397
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 5
Trey Cornist · RB
CFBD athlete 5075952
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- receiving · LONG
- 25
- receiving · REC
- 3
- receiving · TD
- 2
- receiving · YDS
- 30
- receiving · YPR
- 10.0
- rushing · CAR
- 44
- rushing · LONG
- 55
- rushing · TD
- 4
- rushing · YDS
- 267
- rushing · YPC
- 6.1
Tucker McDonald · QB
CFBD athlete 5077806
- passing · ATT
- 11
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 9
- passing · INT
- 1
- passing · PCT
- 0.818
- passing · TD
- 1
- passing · YDS
- 118
- passing · YPA
- 10.7
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 4
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 4
- rushing · YPC
- 4.0
Tyler McKinstry · DB
CFBD athlete 5146976
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 12
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 16
Tyrique Harris · LB
CFBD athlete 5290983
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Xavier Watson · TE
CFBD athlete 5222571
- receiving · LONG
- 23
- receiving · REC
- 9
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 118
- receiving · YPR
- 13.1
Zakaih Saez · DL
CFBD athlete 5157300
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 13
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 20
Zion Paret · DB
CFBD athlete 5215278
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 9
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.0
- defensive · TOT
- 16
Zy'marion Lang · WR
CFBD athlete 5079486
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 2
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
- kickReturns · AVG
- 17.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 17
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 17
Pregame weather
Decision-time forecast unavailable
No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.
Weather context
Weather record unavailable
Evidence cutoff: . This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.
No matching weather context has been published for this game.
- Verified pregame availability
- Unavailable
- Measurement units
- Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
- Forecast issue time
- Unavailable
- Forecast valid time
- Unavailable
Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.
Latest published card · In-season model
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.
UConn +7
EPA-OLS history for 7-14 point gaps: 46% against the spread · below the 52.4% break-even at −110 · 97 games · 2025 · historical reference, not a cover probability.
North Carolina -7
DraftKings snapshot: UConn +7
UConn by 1.42
8.42 points toward UConn versus the spread. The gap is not a cover probability.
Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast
Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately
Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward UConn.
- Fitted offset: +5.20
- Net EPA rating difference: -2.58
- Fitted home field: -1.20
Reconciles to 1.42 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.
Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.
Fit c4bb7cb5f7676bad6ca935c9ad6de236fbdb43b95c02a90800020598436e58af · inputs fcc61278501b3fd7d5cf5703e8d324a561c50f33202d33903c14c084d90cf40b · training 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51 · forecast 6882a8a9bf6f793c03262bcdd8f232e7c990645ceb32906275e60a03d0998d8e · through week 9.
What changed?
7 saved cards for this gameNo change in spread, forecast or model gap.
The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.
Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.
| Recorded value | Earlier | Latest | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market spread | +7.0 | +7.0 | 0.0 |
| Model spread | -1.42 | -1.42 | 0.0 |
| Model gap | +8.42 | +8.42 | 0.0 |
Negative spreads favor UConn; positive model gap favors them too.
Capture times & sources
Earlier saved card
Generated
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
In-season model · rating source as of unknown
Latest published card
Generated
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
In-season model · rating source as of unknown
Model gap = market spread minus model spread.
This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.
Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.
- Earlier saved card SHA-256
- 09ae362bba85693dce95202484e390b841fbdf36d21ea093fee4dd02276f20a9
- Odds source SHA-256
- 1191efda55b02705391f90dc98ac55459f647f2300778ae80eca48d727f2d3cf
- Latest published card SHA-256
- 1cb82609908ef20168d6821e20ce6db6dd11891a77105bc3ac9b18df06cadb8b
- Odds source SHA-256
- d0dba70812098c221b0c8c478c2238c95459bef99e39ca41d677e1f30597fc3c
Model context & pick method
Card generated . Captured prices are not live quotes.
- Output:
- Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
- Model:
- EPA-OLS
- Training:
- 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9; 285 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
- Features:
- EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: fcc61278501b3fd7d5cf5703e8d324a561c50f33202d33903c14c084d90cf40b. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
- Evaluation:
- EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.
Training: 285 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.
Training-only RMSE: 15.77 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.
Margins are not projected scores.
Pick logic
UConn +7
Model gap +8.4 points
A pick needs a gap of at least 3.0 points, either way. Positive gaps favor UConn.
Win probabilities · separate sources
UConn win probability by source
- EPA-OLS calibrated win probability
- Unavailable
- Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
- CFBD market-based probability
- 32%
- Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:01:15 CST; CFBD source spread: UConn +7
- Stacked ensemble
- 37%
- Stacked ensemble from the model pack
Explain this StackedEnsemble probability
Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.
Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward UConn.
- away adjusted success: -14.91 (path difference 4.53)
- home adjusted open field yards allowed: +6.01 (path difference 1.86)
- home adjusted rushing epa allowed: +5.70 (path difference 0.85)
- away elo: +4.79 (path difference 1.33)
- away talent: -4.51 (path difference 1.26)
- away adjusted passing down success allowed: -3.99 (path difference 0.91)
- away adjusted epa allowed: -3.98 (path difference 1.82)
- home adjusted explosiveness: +3.36 (path difference 0.51)
- away adjusted second level yards allowed: -3.32 (path difference 0.89)
- away adjusted pass explosiveness: +3.31 (path difference 1.79)
- home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: -3.23 (path difference 0.21)
- home adjusted success allowed: -3.22 (path difference 0.36)
- away adjusted passing epa allowed: +2.98 (path difference 0.67)
- away adjusted success allowed: +2.96 (path difference 1.22)
- home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +2.95 (path difference 0.57)
- home talent: +2.80 (path difference 1.07)
- away adjusted standard down success: +2.64 (path difference 2.50)
- home elo: -2.58 (path difference 1.22)
- home adjusted epa: +2.53 (path difference 0.98)
- away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: -2.37 (path difference 0.46)
- home adjusted second level yards allowed: +2.25 (path difference 0.41)
- home adjusted second level yards: +2.22 (path difference 0.55)
- away adjusted rushing epa allowed: +2.05 (path difference 0.57)
- away conference: -2.00 (path difference 1.27)
- home adjusted epa allowed: -1.97 (path difference 2.35)
- home adjusted line yards: +1.77 (path difference 1.38)
- home adjusted passing down success allowed: -1.76 (path difference 2.75)
- away adjusted epa: -1.60 (path difference 0.41)
- home adjusted standard down success: +1.59 (path difference 0.29)
- home conference: -1.55 (path difference 0.37)
- week: -1.54 (path difference 0.55)
- home adjusted standard down success allowed: +1.40 (path difference 1.43)
- away adjusted open field yards: +1.23 (path difference 0.68)
- away adjusted line yards: -1.22 (path difference 1.49)
- away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +1.14 (path difference 1.79)
- away adjusted standard down success allowed: +1.01 (path difference 0.07)
- away adjusted passing down success: -0.91 (path difference 0.50)
- home adjusted passing down success: -0.86 (path difference 0.75)
- home adjusted success: +0.86 (path difference 0.15)
- home adjusted passing epa allowed: +0.65 (path difference 0.45)
- away adjusted explosiveness: -0.56 (path difference 0.47)
- away adjusted second level yards: +0.54 (path difference 0.42)
- away adjusted open field yards allowed: -0.52 (path difference 1.83)
- home adjusted passing epa: -0.49 (path difference 0.03)
- home adjusted line yards allowed: -0.46 (path difference 1.36)
- home adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.43 (path difference 0.64)
- away adjusted rushing epa: -0.31 (path difference 0.02)
- home adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.27 (path difference 0.07)
- home adjusted rush explosiveness: +0.24 (path difference 0.43)
- home adjusted open field yards: +0.21 (path difference 0.87)
- away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.21 (path difference 0.87)
- away adjusted line yards allowed: +0.18 (path difference 0.43)
- away adjusted rush explosiveness: +0.18 (path difference 0.16)
- home adjusted rushing epa: +0.07 (path difference 0.01)
- away adjusted passing epa: +0.03 (path difference 0.00)
Reconciles to 37.43 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.
Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.
Fit e302459ca56c4f194361bcc0ad952fb75b35a71b9ff0feaf8dede9dc1265ad90 · inputs d119461246d75df7e4d782b9a8e59025a01c0b5674dc5579f4d4a5603cc551a7 · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast 98da8cbcd7d143a7165392cf3bda4a313f853526bd6e676764fe271b3b70828c · through week 9.
- Output:
- Home win probability (%), display only
- Model:
- StackedEnsemble
- Training:
- Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
- Features:
- Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
- Evaluation:
- Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record
The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.
Rushing workload · last three team games
CFBD individually attributed rushing attempts, including attributed sacks. Captured before kickoff; descriptive context, separate from the forecast. Through 2026-11-06 UTC.
North Carolina
3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 91 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.
| Player | Attempts | YPC | Sacks | Attributed share | Captured season attempts / YPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Demon JuneCFBD athlete 5228607 Week 7 vs Duke: 12 attempts · 3.7 YPC · 33.3% success · 0.227 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Syracuse: 9 attempts · 5.9 YPC · 66.7% success · 0.606 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Miami: 13 attempts · 3.4 YPC · 53.8% success · 0.105 raw PPA. | 34 | 4.1 | 0 | 37.4% | 71 / 4.0 |
Jaylen McGillCFBD athlete 5161835 Week 7 vs Duke: 12 attempts · 6.3 YPC · 58.3% success · -0.073 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Syracuse: 12 attempts · 5.2 YPC · 25.0% success · -0.034 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Miami: 5 attempts · 2.4 YPC · 20.0% success · -0.344 raw PPA. | 29 | 5.1 | 0 | 31.9% | 47 / 5.2 |
Billy EdwardsCFBD athlete 4592532 Week 7 vs Duke: 9 attempts · 2.2 YPC · 42.9% success · 0.058 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Syracuse: 4 attempts · -3.5 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.542 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Miami: 8 attempts · -0.2 YPC · 75.0% success · 0.506 raw PPA. | 21 | 0.2 | 8 | 23.1% | 41 / 0.7 |
Benjamin HallCFBD athlete 5008017 Week 7 vs Duke: 2 attempts · 3.5 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.138 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Miami: 3 attempts · 4.3 YPC · 66.7% success · 0.580 raw PPA. | 5 | 4.0 | 0 | 5.5% | 60 / 4.9 |
Kaleb JacksonCFBD athlete 4870839 Week 7 vs Duke: 1 attempts · 1.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.235 raw PPA. | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1.1% | 1 / 1.0 |
UConn
3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 106 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.
| Player | Attempts | YPC | Sacks | Attributed share | Captured season attempts / YPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cyncir BowersCFBD athlete 5296247 Week 6 vs Temple: 18 attempts · 4.7 YPC · 44.4% success · 0.081 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Massachusetts: 15 attempts · 8.7 YPC · 33.3% success · 0.429 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Air Force: 4 attempts · 1.8 YPC · 25.0% success · -0.525 raw PPA. | 37 | 6.0 | 0 | 34.9% | 84 / 6.8 |
Kalieb OsborneCFBD athlete 5079619 Week 6 vs Temple: 13 attempts · 0.8 YPC · 55.6% success · 0.027 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Massachusetts: 15 attempts · 4.4 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.714 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Air Force: 8 attempts · 1.3 YPC · 80.0% success · 0.319 raw PPA. | 36 | 2.4 | 12 | 34.0% | 86 / 4.2 |
Kenji ChristianCFBD athlete 4689529 Week 6 vs Temple: 1 attempts · 39.0 YPC · 100.0% success · 3.653 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Massachusetts: 12 attempts · 3.8 YPC · 41.7% success · -0.138 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Air Force: 5 attempts · 13.6 YPC · 60.0% success · 1.074 raw PPA. | 18 | 8.5 | 0 | 17.0% | 50 / 5.8 |
Trey CornistCFBD athlete 5075952 Week 6 vs Temple: 7 attempts · 16.3 YPC · 57.1% success · 1.069 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Massachusetts: 3 attempts · 6.3 YPC · 66.7% success · 0.081 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Air Force: 4 attempts · 5.0 YPC · 75.0% success · 0.256 raw PPA. | 14 | 10.9 | 0 | 13.2% | 44 / 6.1 |
Jaden HartCFBD athlete 5084906 Week 8 vs Massachusetts: 1 attempts · 3.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.207 raw PPA. | 1 | 3.0 | 0 | 0.9% | 5 / 3.2 |
Team-only and unresolved attempts are outside this player population. Game PPA and success rates retain provider denominators; they are not pooled across games. Missing appearances do not establish player availability. This three-game window is separate from the 100-play form window.
Team matchup statistics
Offense vs defense
2026 season to date · through Week 9, captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.
| Measure | UConnOffense | North CarolinaDefense | North CarolinaOffense | UConnDefense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPA/play | +0.24 85th | +0.07 52nd | +0.14 57th | +0.08 50th |
| Success rate | 45.2% 68th | 44.2% 19th | 47.0% 77th | 42.1% 37th |
| Explosiveness | 1.39 96th | 1.06 97th | 1.12 9th | 1.14 85th |
| Standard-down PPA/play | +0.22 91st | +0.09 29th | +0.11 64th | +0.06 36th |
| Passing-down PPA/play | +0.28 60th | +0.04 84th | +0.22 47th | +0.11 71st |
| Havoc allowed / created | 13.9% 63rd | 11.7% 5th | 14.0% 61st | 14.8% 35th |
Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.
CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR
Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions
Preview captured Nov 6, 2026, 6:16:02 AM CST · assembled Nov 6, 2026, 6:16:02 AM CST
Checking current kickoff time before showing captured pregame metrics.
2026 kicker PAAR
Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Nov 6, 2026, 6:15:45 AM CST.
- Rece Verhoff · North Carolina · PAAR 1.68 · 4 attempts
- Aeron Burrell · North Carolina · PAAR -4.19 · 7 attempts
- Jack O'Connor · UConn · PAAR -3.53 · 7 attempts
Player recent form
CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.
Checking kickoff before showing recent player metrics.
Captured line movement
Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Nov 6, 2026, 14:39:19 CST · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.
Loading recorded line history… Open this game’s recorded history.
Line history & team context
Card snapshot lines
UConn spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.
DraftKings
CFBD-reported opening: +8.5 · Snapshot spread: +7
First locally observed: +7 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Total · CFBD-reported opening: 51.5 · Snapshot total: 54.5
Total · First locally observed: 54.5 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Total observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Home moneyline · Snapshot: +220 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Home moneyline · First locally observed: +225 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Home moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Away moneyline · Snapshot: -270 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Away moneyline · First locally observed: -278 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Away moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Bovada
CFBD-reported opening: +7 · Snapshot spread: +7
First locally observed: +7 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Total · CFBD-reported opening: 54 · Snapshot total: 54.5
Total · First locally observed: 54 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Total observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Home moneyline · Snapshot: +225 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Home moneyline · First locally observed: +225 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Home moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Away moneyline · Snapshot: -275 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Away moneyline · First locally observed: -275 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Away moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
UConn
Net adjusted EPA/play +0.0 · 8 rated weeks · FBS Independents
North Carolina
Net adjusted EPA/play +0.0 · 9 rated weeks · ACC
Travel
North Carolina travels 532 miles (longer than half of road trips, 2017–2025) · no time-zone change.
Distance uses the campuses because this schedule has no venue.
The 2017–2025 study found no overall ATS edge. Distance and time-zone groups cover near a coin flip. The 2,500+ mile group is above break-even but dominated by Hawai'i trips, so it is not a betting rule.
Series history
North Carolina leads 3–1 in 4 meetings since 1990.
- 2024 · NUConn at North Carolina27–14 · UConn
- 2009North Carolina at UConn12–10 · North Carolina
- 2008UConn at North Carolina12–38 · North Carolina
- 1990UConn at North Carolina21–48 · North Carolina
CFBD matchup data Last 4 meetings shown. N marks a neutral site. History is not a projection input.
Team style charts
Model output, not betting advice. Historical hit rates are small-sample backtests; several edge buckets lose money at -110. Flat units only.