Week 9 · 2026
Minnesota at Indiana
Visual game report
Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.
Player production & success
CFBD regular season · through week 8 · observed 2026-10-30 UTC. Captured before kickoff.
Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.
Minnesota
Window: 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-11 (reported) · 2026-10-03 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-31T19:30:00+00:00.
| Player | Passing | Rushing |
|---|---|---|
| Drake Lindsey QB 3 games | 36.3% 33 / 91 plays | 22.2% 2 / 9 plays |
| Darius Taylor RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 25.0% 9 / 36 plays |
| TJ Thomas Jr. RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 29.2% 7 / 24 plays |
| Xavier Ford RB 2 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 33.3% 3 / 9 plays |
| Javon Tracy WR 1 games | 0.0% 0 / 1 plays | 50.0% 1 / 2 plays |
| Noah Jennings WR 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 50.0% 1 / 2 plays |
Traditional season production · 62 players
Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.
A.J. Turner · RB
CFBD athlete 5082548
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- receiving · LONG
- 5
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 5
- receiving · YPR
- 5.0
- rushing · CAR
- 10
- rushing · LONG
- 17
- rushing · TD
- 1
- rushing · YDS
- 44
- rushing · YPC
- 4.4
Aaden Aytch · DL
CFBD athlete 5279123
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Adam Kissayi · DL
CFBD athlete 5210174
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Aidan Gousby · DB
CFBD athlete 4808762
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 8
Alan Soukup · LS
CFBD athlete 5158249
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Anthony Smith · DL
CFBD athlete 4832823
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 1.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3.0
- defensive · TOT
- 15
Aydan West · DB
CFBD athlete 5216702
- defensive · PD
- 6
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 16
- defensive · TD
- 1
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 24
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
- interceptions · AVG
- 0.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 0
Beckham Sunderland · PK
CFBD athlete 5220920
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- kicking · FGA
- 0
- kicking · FGM
- 0
- kicking · LONG
- 0
- kicking · PCT
- 0
- kicking · PTS
- 1
- kicking · XPA
- 1
- kicking · XPM
- 1
Bradley Martino · WR
CFBD athlete 5204395
- receiving · LONG
- 6
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 6
- receiving · YPR
- 6.0
Brady Palmer · QB
CFBD athlete 5214645
- passing · ATT
- 6
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 4
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 0.667
- passing · TD
- 0
- passing · YDS
- 34
- passing · YPA
- 5.7
- rushing · CAR
- 2
- rushing · LONG
- 8
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 8
- rushing · YPC
- 4.0
Braiden Stevens · WR
CFBD athlete 5325039
- puntReturns · AVG
- 26.0
- puntReturns · LONG
- 26
- puntReturns · NO
- 1
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 26
Daniel Jackson · PK
CFBD athlete 5255256
- kicking · FGA
- 1
- kicking · FGM
- 1
- kicking · LONG
- 31
- kicking · PCT
- 1.000
- kicking · PTS
- 10
- kicking · XPA
- 7
- kicking · XPM
- 7
Darius Taylor · RB
CFBD athlete 4920901
- receiving · LONG
- 33
- receiving · REC
- 19
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 166
- receiving · YPR
- 8.7
- rushing · CAR
- 76
- rushing · LONG
- 27
- rushing · TD
- 5
- rushing · YDS
- 174
- rushing · YPC
- 2.3
Donielle Hayes · WR
CFBD athlete 5077206
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Drake Lindsey · QB
CFBD athlete 5144959
- fumbles · FUM
- 2
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- passing · ATT
- 222
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 141
- passing · INT
- 6
- passing · PCT
- 0.635
- passing · TD
- 9
- passing · YDS
- 1472
- passing · YPA
- 6.6
- rushing · CAR
- 19
- rushing · LONG
- 4
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- -24
- rushing · YPC
- -1.3
Emmanuel Karmo · LB
CFBD athlete 5201873
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 3
Ethan Stendel · LB
CFBD athlete 5215073
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Garrison Monroe · DB
CFBD athlete 5076621
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 8
George Rohl · TE
CFBD athlete 5311304
- receiving · LONG
- 6
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 6
- receiving · YPR
- 6.0
Hayden Moore · WR
CFBD athlete 5271219
- receiving · LONG
- 33
- receiving · REC
- 3
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 49
- receiving · YPR
- 16.3
Hudson Dunn · LB
CFBD athlete 5217183
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Jalen Smith · WR
CFBD athlete 5144962
- receiving · LONG
- 42
- receiving · REC
- 16
- receiving · TD
- 3
- receiving · YDS
- 249
- receiving · YPR
- 15.6
Jaron Thomas · RB
CFBD athlete 5214937
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 5
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 5
- rushing · YPC
- 5.0
Javon Tracy · WR
CFBD athlete 4831976
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 2
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- fumbles · FUM
- 2
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- passing · ATT
- 1
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 0
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 0.000
- passing · TD
- 0
- passing · YDS
- 0
- passing · YPA
- 0.0
- puntReturns · AVG
- 18.0
- puntReturns · LONG
- 87
- puntReturns · NO
- 19
- puntReturns · TD
- 2
- puntReturns · YDS
- 342
- receiving · LONG
- 55
- receiving · REC
- 39
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 420
- receiving · YPR
- 10.8
- rushing · CAR
- 2
- rushing · LONG
- 23
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 22
- rushing · YPC
- 11.0
Jaxon Howard · DL
CFBD athlete 4870787
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 3
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 5
Jaylin Hicks · DL
CFBD athlete 5146946
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Joey Gerlach · LB
CFBD athlete 4908813
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 22
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3.0
- defensive · TOT
- 37
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
- interceptions · AVG
- 0.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 0
John Nestor · DB
CFBD athlete 4941011
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 17
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 4
- defensive · TOT
- 31
- interceptions · AVG
- 0.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 0
Julian Johnson · TE
CFBD athlete 5144785
- receiving · LONG
- 6
- receiving · REC
- 2
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 7
- receiving · YPR
- 3.5
Kaden Helms · TE
CFBD athlete 4873418
- receiving · LONG
- 7
- receiving · REC
- 2
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 13
- receiving · YPR
- 6.5
Karter Menz · DL
CFBD athlete 5076118
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 3
- defensive · SOLO
- 6
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 4.5
- defensive · TOT
- 13
Kerry Brown · DB
CFBD athlete 4923042
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 27
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2
- defensive · TOT
- 40
Luke Drzewiecki · PK
CFBD athlete 5082358
- kicking · FGA
- 12
- kicking · FGM
- 12
- kicking · LONG
- 51
- kicking · PCT
- 1.000
- kicking · PTS
- 49
- kicking · XPA
- 13
- kicking · XPM
- 13
Mason Carrier · LB
CFBD athlete 5079377
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 5
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 9
- puntReturns · AVG
- 16.0
- puntReturns · LONG
- 16
- puntReturns · NO
- 1
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 16
Matt Kingsbury · LB
CFBD athlete 4924139
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 17
- interceptions · AVG
- 0.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 0
Maverick Baranowski · LB
CFBD athlete 4837371
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 28
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3.5
- defensive · TOT
- 52
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
- interceptions · AVG
- 1.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 1
Max Shikenjanski · QB
CFBD athlete 5150680
- passing · ATT
- 3
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 3
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 1.000
- passing · TD
- 0
- passing · YDS
- 50
- passing · YPA
- 16.7
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 2
- rushing · TD
- 1
- rushing · YDS
- 2
- rushing · YPC
- 2.0
Mekhai Smith · DB
CFBD athlete 5225908
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 12
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 20
Mike Gerald · DB
CFBD athlete 5146967
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Naiim Parrish · DB
CFBD athlete 5214532
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 5
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 7
Naquan Crowder · DL
CFBD athlete 5295954
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 5
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.5
- defensive · TOT
- 15
Nate Cleveland · LB
CFBD athlete 5215211
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 3
Niko Castillo · RB
CFBD athlete 5327140
- rushing · CAR
- 4
- rushing · LONG
- 1
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 2
- rushing · YPC
- 0.5
Noah Jennings · WR
CFBD athlete 5164749
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- receiving · LONG
- 34
- receiving · REC
- 30
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 367
- receiving · YPR
- 12.2
- rushing · CAR
- 2
- rushing · LONG
- 31
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 32
- rushing · YPC
- 16.0
Pierce Walsh · TE
CFBD athlete 5044424
- receiving · LONG
- 27
- receiving · REC
- 6
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 47
- receiving · YPR
- 7.8
Quayd Hendryx · WR
CFBD athlete 5369947
- kickReturns · AVG
- 23.3
- kickReturns · LONG
- 42
- kickReturns · NO
- 11
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 256
- receiving · LONG
- 15
- receiving · REC
- 2
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 28
- receiving · YPR
- 14.0
Rhyland Kelly · DB
CFBD athlete 4869253
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Riley Sunram · DL
CFBD athlete 5141794
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 1.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 5.5
- defensive · TOT
- 10
Roman Voss · TE
CFBD athlete 5244731
- receiving · LONG
- 28
- receiving · REC
- 5
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 78
- receiving · YPR
- 15.6
Ryan Estrada · RB
CFBD athlete 5244756
- kickReturns · AVG
- 11.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 11
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 11
- receiving · LONG
- 11
- receiving · REC
- 2
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 12
- receiving · YPR
- 6.0
- rushing · CAR
- 3
- rushing · LONG
- 10
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 10
- rushing · YPC
- 3.3
Sam Macy · DL
CFBD athlete 5146602
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Sid Kaba · DL
CFBD athlete 5119234
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 2
T.J. Bush · DL
CFBD athlete 4917620
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 4
- defensive · SOLO
- 13
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 6.0
- defensive · TOT
- 26
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
- interceptions · AVG
- 0.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 0
TJ Thomas Jr. · RB
CFBD athlete 5224792
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- receiving · LONG
- 18
- receiving · REC
- 17
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 96
- receiving · YPR
- 5.6
- rushing · CAR
- 58
- rushing · LONG
- 71
- rushing · TD
- 1
- rushing · YDS
- 327
- rushing · YPC
- 5.6
Theorin Randle · DL
CFBD athlete 5079282
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 15
Tom Weston · P
CFBD athlete 5295673
- punting · In 20
- 15
- punting · LONG
- 60
- punting · NO
- 34
- punting · TB
- 0
- punting · YDS
- 1413
- punting · YPP
- 41.6
Trason Richardson · DB
CFBD athlete 5291725
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Xavier Ford · RB
CFBD athlete 5264245
- receiving · LONG
- 1
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 1
- receiving · YPR
- 1.0
- rushing · CAR
- 25
- rushing · LONG
- 11
- rushing · TD
- 1
- rushing · YDS
- 115
- rushing · YPC
- 4.6
Xion Chapman · DL
CFBD athlete 5295583
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Zachary Robbins · P
CFBD athlete 5297073
- punting · In 20
- 1
- punting · LONG
- 33
- punting · NO
- 1
- punting · TB
- 0
- punting · YDS
- 33
- punting · YPP
- 33.0
Zack Harden · DB
CFBD athlete 5207988
- defensive · PD
- 3
- defensive · QB HUR
- 3
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 20
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3.0
- defensive · TOT
- 42
- interceptions · AVG
- 0.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 0
Zion Steptoe · WR
CFBD athlete 4833073
- receiving · LONG
- 6
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 6
- receiving · YPR
- 6.0
Indiana
Window: 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported) · 2026-10-10 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-31T19:30:00+00:00.
| Player | Passing | Rushing |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Hoover QB 3 games | 36.9% 31 / 84 plays | 55.6% 5 / 9 plays |
| Turbo Richard RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 28.6% 12 / 42 plays |
| Lee Beebe RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 30.0% 9 / 30 plays |
Traditional season production · 50 players
Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.
A.J. Harris · DB
CFBD athlete 4870721
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 8
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 15
Amare Ferrell · DB
CFBD athlete 4870711
- defensive · PD
- 3
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 20
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 42
- interceptions · AVG
- 14.0
- interceptions · INT
- 3
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 42
Andrew Barker · TE
CFBD athlete 5216524
- receiving · LONG
- 6
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 6
- receiving · YPR
- 6.0
Anthony Chung · DB
CFBD athlete 5156044
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Billy Gowers · P
CFBD athlete 5295243
- punting · In 20
- 10
- punting · LONG
- 59
- punting · NO
- 27
- punting · TB
- 1
- punting · YDS
- 1085
- punting · YPP
- 40.2
Blake Smythe · DL
CFBD athlete 5276957
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2
- defensive · TOT
- 8
Brock Schott · TE
CFBD athlete 5142604
- receiving · LONG
- 25
- receiving · REC
- 3
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 54
- receiving · YPR
- 18.0
Byron Baldwin Jr. · DB
CFBD athlete 5210001
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 2
- defensive · SOLO
- 12
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.5
- defensive · TOT
- 30
Cam McHaney · DL
CFBD athlete 5209957
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 3
Carson Williams · DB
CFBD athlete 5157419
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Charlie Becker · WR
CFBD athlete 5146735
- puntReturns · AVG
- 12.5
- puntReturns · LONG
- 17
- puntReturns · NO
- 2
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 25
- receiving · LONG
- 79
- receiving · REC
- 42
- receiving · TD
- 8
- receiving · YDS
- 726
- receiving · YPR
- 17.3
Chiddi Obiazor · DL
CFBD athlete 5085229
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 5
Daniel Ndukwe · DL
CFBD athlete 5146886
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 4.5
- defensive · TOT
- 6
Davion Chandler · WR
CFBD athlete 5205460
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- receiving · LONG
- 42
- receiving · REC
- 11
- receiving · TD
- 4
- receiving · YDS
- 131
- receiving · YPR
- 11.9
Drew Clausen · LS
CFBD athlete 4878843
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Grant Wilson · QB
CFBD athlete 4695867
- passing · ATT
- 5
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 4
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 0.800
- passing · TD
- 2
- passing · YDS
- 74
- passing · YPA
- 14.8
- rushing · CAR
- 4
- rushing · LONG
- 43
- rushing · TD
- 1
- rushing · YDS
- 45
- rushing · YPC
- 11.3
Henry Ohlinger · LB
CFBD athlete 5211742
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Isaiah Jones · LB
CFBD athlete 4819232
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 3
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 37
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.5
- defensive · TOT
- 59
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
- interceptions · AVG
- 21.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 21
Jackson Wasserstrom · WR
CFBD athlete 5104817
- receiving · LONG
- 10
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 10
- receiving · YPR
- 10.0
Jacob Savage · LB
CFBD athlete 5276972
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 11
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 4.0
- defensive · TOT
- 21
Jamar Owens · DB
CFBD athlete 5183922
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Jamari Sharpe · DB
CFBD athlete 4881031
- defensive · PD
- 6
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 11
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 19
- interceptions · AVG
- 0.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 0
Jaylen Bell · DB
CFBD athlete 5141379
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 13
Jayreon Campbell · RB
CFBD athlete 5214648
- rushing · CAR
- 8
- rushing · LONG
- 23
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 50
- rushing · YPC
- 6.3
Jeff Utzinger · LB
CFBD athlete 5104815
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 10
Jiquan Sanks · DB
CFBD athlete 5147195
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 6
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.0
- defensive · TOT
- 12
- interceptions · AVG
- 31.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 31
Joe Hjelle · DL
CFBD athlete 5219790
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 6
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.5
- defensive · TOT
- 15
Josh Hoover · QB
CFBD athlete 4685401
- fumbles · FUM
- 2
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- passing · ATT
- 187
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 116
- passing · INT
- 1
- passing · PCT
- 0.620
- passing · TD
- 18
- passing · YDS
- 1741
- passing · YPA
- 9.3
- rushing · CAR
- 30
- rushing · LONG
- 16
- rushing · TD
- 2
- rushing · YDS
- 52
- rushing · YPC
- 1.7
Joshua Burnham · DL
CFBD athlete 4685299
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 5
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 6
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3.5
- defensive · TOT
- 14
- kickReturns · AVG
- 8.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 8
- kickReturns · NO
- 2
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 16
Kaiden Turner · LB
CFBD athlete 4751685
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 5
Keishaun Calhoun · DL
CFBD athlete 5216342
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 2
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.5
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Kellan Wyatt · DL
CFBD athlete 4695703
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 6
Lee Beebe · RB
CFBD athlete 5091725
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- kickReturns · AVG
- 24.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 67
- kickReturns · NO
- 3
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 72
- receiving · LONG
- 2
- receiving · REC
- 2
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 4
- receiving · YPR
- 2.0
- rushing · CAR
- 119
- rushing · LONG
- 70
- rushing · TD
- 4
- rushing · YDS
- 631
- rushing · YPC
- 5.3
Lincoln Murff · DB
CFBD athlete 5218919
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Mario Landino · DL
CFBD athlete 5149301
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 4
- defensive · SACKS
- 4
- defensive · SOLO
- 12
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 4.5
- defensive · TOT
- 18
Nick Marsh · WR
CFBD athlete 5079600
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- receiving · LONG
- 75
- receiving · REC
- 34
- receiving · TD
- 7
- receiving · YDS
- 610
- receiving · YPR
- 17.9
Nicolas Radicic · PK
CFBD athlete 5078315
- kicking · FGA
- 12
- kicking · FGM
- 9
- kicking · LONG
- 49
- kicking · PCT
- 0.750
- kicking · PTS
- 46
- kicking · XPA
- 20
- kicking · XPM
- 19
Paddy McAteer · PK
CFBD athlete 5232716
- kicking · FGA
- 3
- kicking · FGM
- 1
- kicking · LONG
- 21
- kicking · PCT
- 0.333
- kicking · PTS
- 15
- kicking · XPA
- 13
- kicking · XPM
- 12
Preston Zachman · DB
CFBD athlete 4605838
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 23
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 42
Rolijah Hardy · LB
CFBD athlete 5212941
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 3
- defensive · SACKS
- 2
- defensive · SOLO
- 35
- defensive · TD
- 1
- defensive · TFL
- 5.5
- defensive · TOT
- 58
- interceptions · AVG
- 19.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 1
- interceptions · YDS
- 19
Ryland Gandy · DB
CFBD athlete 4837465
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 9
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 14
Sean Cuono · RB
CFBD athlete 5164320
- rushing · CAR
- 13
- rushing · LONG
- 9
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 46
- rushing · YPC
- 3.5
Shazz Preston · WR
CFBD athlete 4685516
- receiving · LONG
- 39
- receiving · REC
- 10
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 129
- receiving · YPR
- 12.9
Stephen Daley · DL
CFBD athlete 4912558
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 5
- defensive · SOLO
- 16
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 7.5
- defensive · TOT
- 28
Tobi Osunsanmi · DL
CFBD athlete 4857878
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 9
- defensive · SOLO
- 19
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 13.5
- defensive · TOT
- 30
Trevor Gibbs · TE
CFBD athlete 5276970
- receiving · LONG
- 13
- receiving · REC
- 2
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 21
- receiving · YPR
- 10.5
Turbo Richard · RB
CFBD athlete 5146724
- kickReturns · AVG
- 26.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 41
- kickReturns · NO
- 5
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 130
- receiving · LONG
- 38
- receiving · REC
- 5
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 49
- receiving · YPR
- 9.8
- rushing · CAR
- 106
- rushing · LONG
- 57
- rushing · TD
- 6
- rushing · YDS
- 711
- rushing · YPC
- 6.7
Tyler Cherry · QB
CFBD athlete 5145553
- passing · ATT
- 3
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 1
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 0.333
- passing · TD
- 0
- passing · YDS
- 10
- passing · YPA
- 3.3
Tyler Morris · WR
CFBD athlete 4685464
- fumbles · FUM
- 3
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- kickReturns · AVG
- 0.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 0
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 0
- puntReturns · AVG
- 11.0
- puntReturns · LONG
- 36
- puntReturns · NO
- 5
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 55
- receiving · LONG
- 22
- receiving · REC
- 10
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 85
- receiving · YPR
- 8.5
Tyrique Tucker · DL
CFBD athlete 4912358
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 4
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 12
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3.0
- defensive · TOT
- 26
Pregame weather
Decision-time forecast unavailable
No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.
Weather context
Weather record unavailable
Evidence cutoff: . This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.
No matching weather context has been published for this game.
- Verified pregame availability
- Unavailable
- Measurement units
- Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
- Forecast issue time
- Unavailable
- Forecast valid time
- Unavailable
Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.
Latest published card · In-season model
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.
Indiana -20.5
EPA-OLS history for 3-7 point gaps: 51% against the spread · below the 52.4% break-even at −110 · 175 games · 2025 · historical reference, not a cover probability.
CFBD median · DraftKings quote matches
Indiana by 24.06
3.56 points toward Indiana versus the spread. The gap is not a cover probability.
Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast
Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately
Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward Indiana.
- Net EPA rating difference: +20.12
- Fitted offset: +5.87
- Fitted home field: -1.93
Reconciles to 24.06 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.
Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.
Fit 43a90c4d579143e4336475325da6c037c0829278871c947a48303983b181ca72 · inputs 3aa6d534c5bd2f55235c5f815a491622596371953638ab638ff0d137d9ea3c17 · training 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517 · forecast bb8c94ba9c86a226dd528f614fcb2743b3666803d782c1780c352b8d48c3a920 · through week 8.
What changed?
12 saved cards for this gameMarket spread changed. Model projection held. Home model gap moved +0.25 points.
The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.
Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.
| Recorded value | Earlier | Latest | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market spread | -20.75 | -20.5 | +0.25 |
| Model spread | -24.06 | -24.06 | 0.0 |
| Model gap | +3.31 | +3.56 | +0.25 |
Negative spreads favor Indiana; positive model gap favors them too.
Capture times & sources
Earlier saved card
Generated
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
In-season model · rating source as of unknown
Latest published card
Generated
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
In-season model · rating source as of unknown
Model gap = market spread minus model spread.
This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.
Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.
- Earlier saved card SHA-256
- e2870225a3550ae3bff530e07f507a37ae8d297571a1fb3ae0be6cba56aae72d
- Odds source SHA-256
- c3afde8edfd04c38da42b18ab61b68542f93145177f25e3612c5230361aae058
- Latest published card SHA-256
- 907219f79e16b585a5fe31cf6748ec05ab06f7cd820077da867137c7509faba4
- Odds source SHA-256
- 979caa9e279ac4fb8cf2a315090127f7866efb485202ff3448873ffea01f6148
Model context & pick method
Card generated . Captured prices are not live quotes.
- Output:
- Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
- Model:
- EPA-OLS
- Training:
- 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8; 229 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
- Features:
- EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 3aa6d534c5bd2f55235c5f815a491622596371953638ab638ff0d137d9ea3c17. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
- Evaluation:
- EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.
Training: 229 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8.
Training-only RMSE: 15.64 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.
Margins are not projected scores.
Pick logic
Indiana -20.5
Model gap +3.6 points
A pick needs a gap of at least 3.0 points, either way. Positive gaps favor Indiana.
Win probabilities · separate sources
Indiana win probability by source
- EPA-OLS calibrated win probability
- Unavailable
- Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
- CFBD market-based probability
- 92%
- Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:02:01 CDT; CFBD source spread: Indiana -20.5
- Stacked ensemble
- 88%
- Stacked ensemble from the model pack
Explain this StackedEnsemble probability
Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.
Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward Indiana.
- home elo: +14.68 (path difference 20.06)
- home adjusted success allowed: +6.91 (path difference 6.93)
- home adjusted passing epa: +5.89 (path difference 10.48)
- home adjusted rushing epa allowed: +5.74 (path difference 12.42)
- away elo: +5.67 (path difference 10.90)
- home adjusted success: +4.72 (path difference 6.52)
- away adjusted epa: +4.06 (path difference 8.12)
- home adjusted passing epa allowed: +4.03 (path difference 6.85)
- home adjusted epa allowed: -3.73 (path difference 9.20)
- away adjusted passing down success: -3.28 (path difference 2.62)
- away adjusted epa allowed: -2.28 (path difference 4.33)
- home adjusted second level yards: +1.95 (path difference 0.08)
- away adjusted passing epa allowed: +1.95 (path difference 3.74)
- away adjusted rushing epa: -1.88 (path difference 2.85)
- home adjusted open field yards allowed: +1.78 (path difference 1.10)
- home adjusted standard down success allowed: -1.75 (path difference 0.43)
- away talent: -1.35 (path difference 0.71)
- home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +1.34 (path difference 0.51)
- away adjusted second level yards allowed: +1.34 (path difference 0.44)
- home adjusted rushing epa: -1.24 (path difference 1.26)
- home talent: +1.07 (path difference 0.76)
- home adjusted explosiveness: +0.89 (path difference 2.05)
- home adjusted passing down success allowed: -0.88 (path difference 1.49)
- away adjusted success: +0.80 (path difference 0.38)
- away adjusted open field yards: +0.76 (path difference 0.76)
- away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: -0.74 (path difference 0.66)
- away adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.71 (path difference 0.85)
- home adjusted standard down success: +0.71 (path difference 0.30)
- away adjusted line yards: +0.59 (path difference 0.75)
- away adjusted rushing epa allowed: +0.43 (path difference 0.46)
- away adjusted line yards allowed: +0.38 (path difference 0.62)
- home adjusted explosiveness allowed: -0.35 (path difference 0.58)
- home adjusted line yards: +0.33 (path difference 0.04)
- away adjusted passing epa: +0.32 (path difference 0.09)
- week: +0.32 (path difference 0.32)
- away conference: +0.28 (path difference 0.20)
- away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.28 (path difference 0.48)
- away adjusted second level yards: +0.25 (path difference 0.14)
- home adjusted second level yards allowed: +0.24 (path difference 0.15)
- away adjusted standard down success: +0.23 (path difference 0.53)
- home adjusted epa: +0.22 (path difference 0.09)
- away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +0.20 (path difference 0.25)
- home adjusted open field yards: +0.18 (path difference 0.32)
- home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +0.16 (path difference 0.59)
- home adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.14 (path difference 0.21)
- away adjusted standard down success allowed: -0.12 (path difference 0.08)
- away adjusted explosiveness: +0.11 (path difference 0.12)
- home adjusted line yards allowed: -0.10 (path difference 1.00)
- away adjusted passing down success allowed: -0.09 (path difference 0.54)
- away adjusted open field yards allowed: +0.09 (path difference 1.61)
- away adjusted rush explosiveness: +0.04 (path difference 0.05)
- home adjusted pass explosiveness: -0.03 (path difference 0.04)
- home conference: -0.02 (path difference 0.04)
- away adjusted success allowed: +0.00 (path difference 0.00)
- home adjusted passing down success: -0.00 (path difference 0.71)
Reconciles to 88.40 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.
Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.
Fit 1ad7d19a4f250d7f5c62cdf95b70289b6ffd1cf8bdf8feb12b8623f27e5aa234 · inputs 8229942cb792c62a7d9faa50345a75f1f359e3e81e881c708357e94303111ad8 · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast a9161451aa3c5f42e01113acaa862afad8fa9e3356d378abf8ea8c6c6e5480ef · through week 8.
- Output:
- Home win probability (%), display only
- Model:
- StackedEnsemble
- Training:
- Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
- Features:
- Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
- Evaluation:
- Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record
The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.
Rushing workload · last three team games
CFBD individually attributed rushing attempts, including attributed sacks. Captured before kickoff; descriptive context, separate from the forecast. Through 2026-10-30 UTC.
Minnesota
3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 85 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.
| Player | Attempts | YPC | Sacks | Attributed share | Captured season attempts / YPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Darius TaylorCFBD athlete 4920901 Week 5 vs Michigan: 18 attempts · 1.8 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.247 raw PPA. Week 6 vs Purdue: 6 attempts · 1.7 YPC · 0.0% success · -1.079 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Iowa: 12 attempts · 1.7 YPC · 25.0% success · -0.100 raw PPA. | 36 | 1.7 | 0 | 42.4% | 75 / 2.3 |
TJ Thomas Jr.CFBD athlete 5224792 Week 5 vs Michigan: 12 attempts · 4.7 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.007 raw PPA. Week 6 vs Purdue: 6 attempts · 2.0 YPC · 16.7% success · -0.363 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Iowa: 6 attempts · 1.3 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.454 raw PPA. | 24 | 3.2 | 0 | 28.2% | 57 / 5.8 |
Drake LindseyCFBD athlete 5144959 Week 5 vs Michigan: 5 attempts · 0.2 YPC · 40.0% success · -0.070 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Iowa: 7 attempts · -1.6 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.276 raw PPA. | 12 | -0.8 | 3 | 14.1% | 18 / -0.8 |
Xavier FordCFBD athlete 5264245 Week 5 vs Michigan: 1 attempts · 8.0 YPC · 100.0% success · 0.552 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Iowa: 8 attempts · 4.1 YPC · 25.0% success · -0.052 raw PPA. | 9 | 4.6 | 0 | 10.6% | 25 / 4.6 |
Javon TracyCFBD athlete 4831976 Week 8 vs Iowa: 2 attempts · 11.0 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.505 raw PPA. | 2 | 11.0 | 0 | 2.4% | 2 / 11.0 |
Indiana
3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 85 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.
| Player | Attempts | YPC | Sacks | Attributed share | Captured season attempts / YPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Turbo RichardCFBD athlete 5146724 Week 6 vs Nebraska: 8 attempts · 1.3 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.330 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Ohio State: 16 attempts · 2.9 YPC · 25.0% success · -0.195 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Michigan: 18 attempts · 3.6 YPC · 44.4% success · 0.012 raw PPA. | 42 | 2.9 | 0 | 49.4% | 104 / 6.8 |
Lee BeebeCFBD athlete 5091725 Week 6 vs Nebraska: 9 attempts · 3.4 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.313 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Ohio State: 9 attempts · 2.7 YPC · 22.2% success · -0.318 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Michigan: 12 attempts · 4.7 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.006 raw PPA. | 30 | 3.7 | 0 | 35.3% | 118 / 5.4 |
Josh HooverCFBD athlete 4685401 Week 6 vs Nebraska: 5 attempts · 4.8 YPC · 66.7% success · 0.856 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Ohio State: 4 attempts · 0.8 YPC · 66.7% success · 0.486 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Michigan: 4 attempts · 1.8 YPC · 33.3% success · 0.403 raw PPA. | 13 | 2.6 | 4 | 15.3% | 27 / 2.0 |
Team-only and unresolved attempts are outside this player population. Game PPA and success rates retain provider denominators; they are not pooled across games. Missing appearances do not establish player availability. This three-game window is separate from the 100-play form window.
Team matchup statistics
Offense vs defense
2026 season to date · through Week 8, captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.
| Measure | IndianaOffense | MinnesotaDefense | MinnesotaOffense | IndianaDefense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPA/play | +0.30 92nd | -0.01 80th | +0.04 18th | -0.06 92nd |
| Success rate | 45.8% 68th | 38.4% 67th | 41.0% 34th | 32.7% 99th |
| Explosiveness | 1.35 93rd | 1.17 71st | 1.11 9th | 1.36 11th |
| Standard-down PPA/play | +0.28 95th | -0.09 84th | +0.04 34th | -0.17 97th |
| Passing-down PPA/play | +0.35 72nd | +0.15 58th | +0.03 9th | +0.13 67th |
| Havoc allowed / created | 12.1% 86th | 21.7% 96th | 15.7% 36th | 19.6% 91st |
Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.
CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR
Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions
Preview captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:14:09 AM CDT · assembled Oct 30, 2026, 6:14:09 AM CDT
Checking current kickoff time before showing captured pregame metrics.
2026 kicker PAAR
Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:13:38 AM CDT.
- Nicolas Radicic · Indiana · PAAR 0.78 · 12 attempts
- Luke Drzewiecki · Minnesota · PAAR 9.83 · 12 attempts
- Paddy McAteer · Indiana · PAAR -2.00 · 3 attempts
- Daniel Jackson · Minnesota · PAAR 0.41 · 1 attempts
Player recent form
CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.
Checking kickoff before showing recent player metrics.
Captured line movement
Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Oct 30, 2026, 16:20:05 CDT · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.
Loading recorded line history… Open this game’s recorded history.
Line history & team context
Card snapshot lines
Indiana spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.
DraftKings
CFBD-reported opening: -22.5 · Snapshot spread: -20.5
First locally observed: -22.5 · captured Oct 22, 2026, 06:01:46 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: c83aae5cdf39bf646f57eb0000ff0ed8f701059d814361b444e46ff57d8d3b4d
Total · CFBD-reported opening: 45.5 · Snapshot total: 41.5
Total · First locally observed: 45.5 · captured Oct 22, 2026, 06:01:46 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Total observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: c83aae5cdf39bf646f57eb0000ff0ed8f701059d814361b444e46ff57d8d3b4d
Home moneyline · Snapshot: -1450 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Home moneyline · First locally observed: -2100 · captured Oct 22, 2026, 06:01:46 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Home moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: c83aae5cdf39bf646f57eb0000ff0ed8f701059d814361b444e46ff57d8d3b4d
Away moneyline · Snapshot: +850 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Away moneyline · First locally observed: +1100 · captured Oct 22, 2026, 06:01:46 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Away moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: c83aae5cdf39bf646f57eb0000ff0ed8f701059d814361b444e46ff57d8d3b4d
Bovada
CFBD-reported opening: -20 · Snapshot spread: -20.5
First locally observed: -20 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Total · CFBD-reported opening: 41.5 · Snapshot total: 41
Total · First locally observed: 41.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Total observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Home moneyline · Snapshot: -1300 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Home moneyline · First locally observed: -1300 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Home moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Away moneyline · Snapshot: +725 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Away moneyline · First locally observed: +725 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Away moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Indiana
Net adjusted EPA/play +0.2 · 8 rated weeks · Big Ten
Minnesota
Net adjusted EPA/play -0.1 · 7 rated weeks · Big Ten
Travel
Minnesota travels 527 miles (longer than half of road trips, 2017–2025) · 1 time zone crossed.
Distance uses the campuses because this schedule has no venue.
The 2017–2025 study found no overall ATS edge. Distance and time-zone groups cover near a coin flip. The 2,500+ mile group is above break-even but dominated by Hawai'i trips, so it is not a betting rule.
Series history
Minnesota leads 40–26, 3 ties in 69 meetings since 1906.
- 2021Minnesota at Indiana35–14 · Minnesota
- 2018Indiana at Minnesota31–38 · Minnesota
- 2013Minnesota at Indiana42–39 · Minnesota
- 2008Indiana at Minnesota7–16 · Minnesota
- 2007Minnesota at Indiana20–40 · Indiana
- 2006Indiana at Minnesota26–63 · Minnesota
CFBD matchup data Last 6 meetings shown. N marks a neutral site. History is not a projection input.
Team style charts
Model output, not betting advice. Historical hit rates are small-sample backtests; several edge buckets lose money at -110. Flat units only.