Week 9 · 2026

Michigan at Rutgers

Visual game report

Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.

Player production & success

CFBD regular season · through week 8 · observed 2026-10-30 UTC. Captured before kickoff.

Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.

Michigan

Window: 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported) · 2026-10-03 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-31T16:30:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Tommy Carr QB 2 games	30.2% 13 / 43 plays	53.8% 7 / 13 plays
Bryce Underwood QB 3 games	28.6% 10 / 35 plays	40.0% 4 / 10 plays
Jordan Marshall RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	47.2% 17 / 36 plays
Savion Hiter RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	21.4% 6 / 28 plays
Bryson Kuzdzal RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	50.0% 3 / 6 plays

Traditional season production · 51 players

Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Aisea Moa · LB

CFBD athlete 4896290

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 18

Andrew Marsh · WR

CFBD athlete 5141572

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
fumbles · FUM: 2
fumbles · LOST: 2
fumbles · REC: 0
puntReturns · AVG: 4.3
puntReturns · LONG: 10
puntReturns · NO: 7
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 30
receiving · LONG: 34
receiving · REC: 32
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 309
receiving · YPR: 9.7
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 15
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 15
rushing · YPC: 15.0

Benny Patterson · DE

CFBD athlete 5210185

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 10

Bobby Kanka · DT

CFBD athlete 5141554

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 5

Brady Norton · OL

CFBD athlete 5152089

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Bryce Underwood · QB

CFBD athlete 5141741

fumbles · FUM: 3
fumbles · LOST: 2
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 124
passing · COMPLETIONS: 72
passing · INT: 6
passing · PCT: 0.581
passing · TD: 5
passing · YDS: 924
passing · YPA: 7.5
rushing · CAR: 61
rushing · LONG: 38
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 222
rushing · YPC: 3.6

Bryson Kuzdzal · RB

CFBD athlete 5156348

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
kickReturns · AVG: 21.3
kickReturns · LONG: 36
kickReturns · NO: 8
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 170
rushing · CAR: 15
rushing · LONG: 43
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 80
rushing · YPC: 5.3

Cameron Brandt · DE

CFBD athlete 4923036

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Cameron Brown · P

CFBD athlete 5265648

punting · In 20: 15
punting · LONG: 52
punting · NO: 35
punting · TB: 2
punting · YDS: 1475
punting · YPP: 42.1

Carter Meadows · DE

CFBD athlete 5209412

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Channing Goodwin · WR

CFBD athlete 5079417

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 24
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 32
receiving · YPR: 16.0

Chase Taylor · LB

CFBD athlete 5167194

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1.0
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 21

Chris Bracy · S

CFBD athlete 5078910

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 26
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 44
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Deakon Tonielli · TE

CFBD athlete 4899352

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Deyvid Palepale · DT

CFBD athlete 5128064

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Dominic Nichols · DE

CFBD athlete 5079636

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 2.5
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 5.0
defensive · TOT: 16

Donovan Johnson · RB

CFBD athlete 5141530

rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 0
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -2
rushing · YPC: -2.0

Eli Owens · TE

CFBD athlete 5141588

receiving · LONG: 5
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 5
receiving · YPR: 5.0
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 7
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 7
rushing · YPC: 7.0

Enow Etta · DT

CFBD athlete 4870704

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 11
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.0
defensive · TOT: 20
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Hogan Hansen · TE

CFBD athlete 5079494

receiving · LONG: 22
receiving · REC: 11
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 100
receiving · YPR: 9.1

JJ Buchanan · WR

CFBD athlete 5214557

receiving · LONG: 49
receiving · REC: 33
receiving · TD: 4
receiving · YDS: 539
receiving · YPR: 16.3

Jacob Oden · S

CFBD athlete 5079644

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 2

Jalen Hoffman · TE

CFBD athlete 5156349

receiving · LONG: 13
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 39
receiving · YPR: 7.8

John Henry Daley · DE

CFBD athlete 5160962

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 3.5
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 6.5
defensive · TOT: 20

Jonah Lea'Ea · DT

CFBD athlete 4891197

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 12
interceptions · AVG: 9.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 1
interceptions · YDS: 9

Jordan Marshall · RB

CFBD athlete 5079574

receiving · LONG: 16
receiving · REC: 4
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 32
receiving · YPR: 8.0
rushing · CAR: 81
rushing · LONG: 17
rushing · TD: 4
rushing · YDS: 319
rushing · YPC: 3.9

Jordan Young · S

CFBD athlete 5141734

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 6

Jyaire Hill · CB

CFBD athlete 4918449

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 21
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 33
interceptions · AVG: 24.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 24

Kendrick Bell · WR

CFBD athlete 5108220

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Lugard Edokpayi · DE

CFBD athlete 5168274

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Markel Dabney · LB

CFBD athlete 5161819

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Mason Curtis · S

CFBD athlete 5079392

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 7

Max Alford · LB

CFBD athlete 4878106

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 5

Nate Marshall · DE

CFBD athlete 5141534

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 2.0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 10

Nathaniel Owusu-Boateng · LB

CFBD athlete 5141620

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 6

Nathaniel Staehling · LB

CFBD athlete 5087172

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 19
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 41
interceptions · AVG: 79.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 1
interceptions · YDS: 79

Nico Andrighetto · S

CFBD athlete 5086016

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Rod Moore · S

CFBD athlete 4603101

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 13
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 25
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Salesi Moa · WR

CFBD athlete 5159013

puntReturns · AVG: 11.3
puntReturns · LONG: 13
puntReturns · NO: 3
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 34
receiving · LONG: 19
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 23
receiving · YPR: 11.5
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 0
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -1
rushing · YPC: -1.0

Savion Hiter · RB

CFBD athlete 5159046

fumbles · FUM: 2
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 19
receiving · REC: 7
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 61
receiving · YPR: 8.7
rushing · CAR: 67
rushing · LONG: 41
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 238
rushing · YPC: 3.6

Shamari Earls · CB

CFBD athlete 5141437

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Smith Snowden · CB

CFBD athlete 4918445

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 16
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 23
interceptions · AVG: 3.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 3

Tariq Boney · DE

CFBD athlete 5162850

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.0
defensive · TOT: 9

Ted Hammond · DT

CFBD athlete 5089325

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Tomas O'Meara · RB

CFBD athlete 5222269

rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 5
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 5
rushing · YPC: 5.0

Tommy Carr · QB

CFBD athlete 5269403

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 41
passing · COMPLETIONS: 27
passing · INT: 1
passing · PCT: 0.659
passing · TD: 1
passing · YDS: 237
passing · YPA: 5.8
rushing · CAR: 21
rushing · LONG: 22
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 60
rushing · YPC: 2.9

Travis Johnson · WR

CFBD athlete 5209314

receiving · LONG: 11
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 21
receiving · YPR: 10.5
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 2
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 2
rushing · YPC: 2.0

Trey Butkowski · PK

CFBD athlete 5296243

kicking · FGA: 8
kicking · FGM: 6
kicking · LONG: 49
kicking · PCT: 0.750
kicking · PTS: 34
kicking · XPA: 16
kicking · XPM: 16

Trey Pierce · DT

CFBD athlete 5156353

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 15

Troy Bowles · LB

CFBD athlete 4870632

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 27
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 5.0
defensive · TOT: 55
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Zeke Berry · CB

CFBD athlete 4794102

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 21
interceptions · AVG: 37.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 37

Rutgers

Window: 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported) · 2026-10-04 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-31T16:30:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Dylan Lonergan QB 3 games	47.8% 22 / 46 plays	33.3% 2 / 6 plays
Antwan Raymond RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	33.3% 15 / 45 plays
Clay Thevenin RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	51.2% 22 / 43 plays
AJ Surace QB 2 games	29.4% 10 / 34 plays	50.0% 2 / 4 plays
Sean Ashenfelder QB 2 games	20.0% 2 / 10 plays	33.3% 1 / 3 plays
Aiden Gibson RB 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 2 plays

Traditional season production · 57 players

Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

AJ Surace · QB

CFBD athlete 5079717

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 71
passing · COMPLETIONS: 40
passing · INT: 5
passing · PCT: 0.563
passing · TD: 6
passing · YDS: 539
passing · YPA: 7.6
rushing · CAR: 19
rushing · LONG: 6
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -56
rushing · YPC: -2.9

Abram Wright · LB

CFBD athlete 5076084

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 12

Aiden Gibson · RB

CFBD athlete 5280123

rushing · CAR: 11
rushing · LONG: 9
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 35
rushing · YPC: 3.2

Antwan Raymond · RB

CFBD athlete 5209945

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2
receiving · LONG: 22
receiving · REC: 13
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 128
receiving · YPR: 9.8
rushing · CAR: 123
rushing · LONG: 51
rushing · TD: 6
rushing · YDS: 648
rushing · YPC: 5.3

Ben Black · WR

CFBD athlete 5147046

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2
kickReturns · AVG: 24.0
kickReturns · LONG: 29
kickReturns · NO: 3
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 72
receiving · LONG: 53
receiving · REC: 10
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 195
receiving · YPR: 19.5

Ben Rothhaar · TE

CFBD athlete 5216526

receiving · LONG: 23
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 23
receiving · YPR: 23.0

Bradlee Jones · DB

CFBD athlete 5153430

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 19
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 31
interceptions · AVG: 0.5
interceptions · INT: 2
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 1

Braxton Kyle · DL

CFBD athlete 5214824

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Chris Joines · DB

CFBD athlete 5092802

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 18
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 33

Clay Thevenin · RB

CFBD athlete 5296378

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2
receiving · LONG: 19
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 51
receiving · YPR: 10.2
rushing · CAR: 73
rushing · LONG: 43
rushing · TD: 4
rushing · YDS: 405
rushing · YPC: 5.5

DJ Allen · DL

CFBD athlete 5092424

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

DK Gilley · DB

CFBD athlete 5146940

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 26
interceptions · AVG: 7.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 7

Dane Pizzaro · PK

CFBD athlete 5221415

kicking · FGA: 7
kicking · FGM: 6
kicking · LONG: 47
kicking · PCT: 0.857
kicking · PTS: 41
kicking · XPA: 24
kicking · XPM: 23

Devonte Anderson · DB

CFBD athlete 5272683

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 11

Dylan Lonergan · QB

CFBD athlete 4870900

fumbles · FUM: 2
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 127
passing · COMPLETIONS: 74
passing · INT: 6
passing · PCT: 0.583
passing · TD: 10
passing · YDS: 1066
passing · YPA: 8.4
rushing · CAR: 22
rushing · LONG: 11
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 49
rushing · YPC: 2.2

Dyzier Carter · WR

CFBD athlete 5158988

receiving · LONG: 35
receiving · REC: 11
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 151
receiving · YPR: 13.7

Elias Coke · WR

CFBD athlete 5158944

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 16
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 29
receiving · YPR: 9.7

Farell Gnago · DL

CFBD athlete 5148782

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 4

J'Dan Burnett · DL

CFBD athlete 4687358

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 6

Ja'shon Benjamin · RB

CFBD athlete 5099736

kickReturns · AVG: 17.0
kickReturns · LONG: 17
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 17
rushing · CAR: 3
rushing · LONG: 6
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 12
rushing · YPC: 4.0

Jaedin Lee · DL

CFBD athlete 5226651

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Jakob Anderson · P

CFBD athlete 5221407

passing · ATT: 1
passing · COMPLETIONS: 1
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 1.000
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 40
passing · YPA: 40.0
punting · In 20: 4
punting · LONG: 70
punting · NO: 18
punting · TB: 2
punting · YDS: 813
punting · YPP: 45.2

Jamareis Conyers · DB

CFBD athlete 5271152

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 11
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 14

Jermaine Polk · DL

CFBD athlete 5281459

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Jessie Ofurie · DB

CFBD athlete 5064160

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 30
receiving · LONG: 40
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 40
receiving · YPR: 40.0

Joey Kopec · LB

CFBD athlete 5273551

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Jourdin Houston · WR

CFBD athlete 5214940

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 26
receiving · REC: 17
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 184
receiving · YPR: 10.8

KJ Duff · WR

CFBD athlete 5084771

receiving · LONG: 78
receiving · REC: 45
receiving · TD: 9
receiving · YDS: 774
receiving · YPR: 17.2

Kaj Sanders · DB

CFBD athlete 5079671

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 12

Kamar Archie · LB

CFBD athlete 5141372

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Kameron Anthony · TE

CFBD athlete 5193264

receiving · LONG: 14
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 22
receiving · YPR: 11.0

Keshon Griffin · DL

CFBD athlete 4596665

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 9

Kevin Levy · DB

CFBD athlete 5079498

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Kevyn Humes · DB

CFBD athlete 5141511

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 12
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Latrell Noel · DB

CFBD athlete 5304407

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 12

Logan Blake · TE

CFBD athlete 5074243

receiving · LONG: 7
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 26
receiving · YPR: 5.2

Malachi Davis · DL

CFBD athlete 4789223

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 4
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.0
defensive · TOT: 16

Messiah Tilson · DB

CFBD athlete 5276992

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Mikey Munn · DB

CFBD athlete 5227946

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 7

Moses Walker · LB

CFBD athlete 4685567

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1.5
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.5
defensive · TOT: 27
interceptions · AVG: 4.0
interceptions · INT: 2
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 8

Quentin Redding · WR

CFBD athlete 4875384

puntReturns · AVG: 8.0
puntReturns · LONG: 14
puntReturns · NO: 3
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 24

RJ Johnson Jr. · DL

CFBD athlete 5214942

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

RJ Wortman · DB

CFBD athlete 5289305

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Rinaldo Callaway III · DL

CFBD athlete 5280614

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Rondarius Porter · DL

CFBD athlete 5218732

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 2.5
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 7.0
defensive · TOT: 20

Sage Clawges · DB

CFBD athlete 5160746

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 14

Sah'nye Degraffenreidt · WR

CFBD athlete 5164353

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Sean Allison · LB

CFBD athlete 5085690

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 18
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 30

Sean Ashenfelder · QB

CFBD athlete 5172031

passing · ATT: 10
passing · COMPLETIONS: 3
passing · INT: 1
passing · PCT: 0.300
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 50
passing · YPA: 5.0
rushing · CAR: 4
rushing · LONG: 6
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -6
rushing · YPC: -1.5

Sekou Kromah · DL

CFBD athlete 5219872

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 2.0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.0
defensive · TOT: 18

Tariq Hayer · DB

CFBD athlete 5141510

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 6

Terrence Salami · OL

CFBD athlete 4880467

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Trent Osborn · WR

CFBD athlete 5221414

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Ty Anthony Morris · LB

CFBD athlete 5151284

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 22

Vernon Allen III · WR

CFBD athlete 5148651

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 28
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 72
receiving · YPR: 14.4

Zahmir Dawud · DB

CFBD athlete 5154001

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Zaire Angoy · DL

CFBD athlete 4612622

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 10

Pregame weather

Decision-time forecast unavailable

No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.

Weather context

Weather record unavailable

Evidence cutoff: 2026-10-26T04:30:00+00:00. This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.

No matching weather context has been published for this game.

Verified pregame availability: Unavailable
Measurement units: Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
Forecast issue time: Unavailable
Forecast valid time: Unavailable

Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.

Latest published card · In-season model

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.

Pick at comparison line

Rutgers +15.75

EPA-OLS history for 3-7 point gaps: 51% against the spread · below the 52.4% break-even at −110 · 175 games · 2025 · historical reference, not a cover probability.

Comparison line · CFBD median

Michigan -15.75

DraftKings snapshot: Rutgers +15.5

Book quote differs from the comparison line.

EPA-OLS forecast · margin in points

Michigan by 10.49

5.26 points toward Rutgers versus the spread. The gap is not a cover probability.

Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast

Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately

Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward Rutgers.

Net EPA rating difference: -14.42
Fitted offset: +5.87
Fitted home field: -1.93

Reconciles to -10.49 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.

Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.

Fit 43a90c4d579143e4336475325da6c037c0829278871c947a48303983b181ca72 · inputs a076f8dbf5da68386bc35949d6b2fe5684159f1a5175086e428e35d02cdf4159 · training 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517 · forecast 1ca132fef2a7c8a8a91b697e0d247ae3d9b17b14ed6ef5b68a3e6ebfb27df13b · through week 8.

What changed?

12 saved cards for this game

Earlier saved card

Market spread changed. Model projection held. Home model gap moved +0.5 points.

The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.

Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.

Home team: Rutgers · all values in points
Recorded value	Earlier	Latest	Change
Market spread	+15.25	+15.75	+0.5
Model spread	+10.49	+10.49	0.0
Model gap	+4.76	+5.26	+0.5

Negative spreads favor Rutgers; positive model gap favors them too.

Capture times & sources

Earlier saved card

Generated Oct 29, 2026, 06:13:15 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Oct 29, 2026, 06:02:06 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Latest published card

Generated Oct 30, 2026, 06:10:26 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Model gap = market spread minus model spread.

This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.

Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.

Earlier saved card SHA-256: e2870225a3550ae3bff530e07f507a37ae8d297571a1fb3ae0be6cba56aae72d
Odds source SHA-256: c3afde8edfd04c38da42b18ab61b68542f93145177f25e3612c5230361aae058
Latest published card SHA-256: 907219f79e16b585a5fe31cf6748ec05ab06f7cd820077da867137c7509faba4
Odds source SHA-256: 979caa9e279ac4fb8cf2a315090127f7866efb485202ff3448873ffea01f6148

View recorded snapshot data

Model context & pick method

Card generated Oct 30, 2026, 06:10:26 CDT. Captured prices are not live quotes.

Output:: Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
Model:: EPA-OLS
Training:: 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8; 229 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Features:: EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: a076f8dbf5da68386bc35949d6b2fe5684159f1a5175086e428e35d02cdf4159. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Evaluation:: EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.

Training: 229 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8.

Training-only RMSE: 15.64 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.

Margins are not projected scores.

Pick logic

Rutgers +15.75

Model gap +5.3 points

A pick needs a gap of at least 3.0 points, either way. Positive gaps favor Rutgers.

Win probabilities · separate sources

Rutgers win probability by source

EPA-OLS calibrated win probability: Unavailable; Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
CFBD market-based probability: 14%; Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:02:01 CDT; CFBD source spread: Rutgers +16
Stacked ensemble: 24%; Stacked ensemble from the model pack

Explain this StackedEnsemble probability

Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.

Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward Rutgers.

home elo: -7.31 (path difference 0.62)
away adjusted rushing epa allowed: +6.68 (path difference 5.83)
away adjusted epa allowed: -5.84 (path difference 5.31)
away talent: -5.53 (path difference 3.57)
home adjusted epa: +5.35 (path difference 4.83)
away adjusted passing epa allowed: +5.25 (path difference 4.07)
home adjusted second level yards: +5.04 (path difference 4.61)
away adjusted second level yards allowed: -4.94 (path difference 4.81)
home adjusted rushing epa allowed: -4.60 (path difference 0.18)
away adjusted success: -4.54 (path difference 1.10)
home adjusted success allowed: -4.53 (path difference 3.10)
away elo: -4.53 (path difference 2.25)
away adjusted success allowed: -4.22 (path difference 1.99)
home adjusted explosiveness: +3.97 (path difference 0.66)
home adjusted rushing epa: -3.92 (path difference 3.48)
away adjusted epa: +3.50 (path difference 4.13)
home adjusted standard down success allowed: +3.39 (path difference 0.93)
home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +3.19 (path difference 1.52)
home talent: +2.76 (path difference 1.01)
home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +2.32 (path difference 1.40)
home adjusted epa allowed: +2.07 (path difference 3.36)
away adjusted standard down success allowed: -1.99 (path difference 2.14)
away adjusted second level yards: +1.93 (path difference 0.75)
away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +1.93 (path difference 1.71)
away adjusted passing down success allowed: -1.91 (path difference 2.49)
away adjusted open field yards allowed: -1.74 (path difference 3.53)
home adjusted second level yards allowed: -1.60 (path difference 1.19)
home adjusted line yards: -1.37 (path difference 0.58)
home adjusted open field yards: -1.24 (path difference 1.07)
home adjusted success: +1.10 (path difference 0.09)
home adjusted line yards allowed: -1.04 (path difference 0.28)
away adjusted pass explosiveness: +1.01 (path difference 0.03)
away adjusted passing epa: +0.97 (path difference 0.51)
away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: -0.86 (path difference 0.53)
away adjusted line yards: -0.60 (path difference 0.36)
home adjusted passing down success allowed: -0.54 (path difference 1.41)
away adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.40 (path difference 0.20)
home adjusted passing epa: -0.38 (path difference 0.22)
home adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.30 (path difference 0.47)
away adjusted rushing epa: +0.30 (path difference 0.07)
away adjusted open field yards: +0.29 (path difference 1.59)
away conference: +0.18 (path difference 0.40)
away adjusted standard down success: -0.17 (path difference 0.07)
home adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.17 (path difference 0.01)
away adjusted explosiveness: +0.17 (path difference 0.04)
away adjusted line yards allowed: +0.10 (path difference 0.25)
home adjusted open field yards allowed: -0.09 (path difference 0.26)
home adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.08 (path difference 0.07)
home adjusted passing epa allowed: -0.08 (path difference 0.98)
away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.06 (path difference 0.39)
home conference: -0.03 (path difference 0.02)
home adjusted passing down success: -0.02 (path difference 0.01)
home adjusted standard down success: -0.01 (path difference 0.01)
away adjusted passing down success: +0.00 (path difference 0.00)
week: +0.00 (path difference 0.94)

Reconciles to 24.21 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.

Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.

Fit 1ad7d19a4f250d7f5c62cdf95b70289b6ffd1cf8bdf8feb12b8623f27e5aa234 · inputs 0290f6ee064137b221fb52a5f6f68d0aed18229684663d2c6a5e53f968766218 · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast a729ddf2beae69f7f3c6c48b82a63b2bb06fc5267464b3eb5aeca2e2ef7c8378 · through week 8.

Output:: Home win probability (%), display only
Model:: StackedEnsemble
Training:: Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
Features:: Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Evaluation:: Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record

The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.

Rushing workload · last three team games

CFBD individually attributed rushing attempts, including attributed sacks. Captured before kickoff; descriptive context, separate from the forecast. Through 2026-10-30 UTC.

Michigan

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 101 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Jordan Marshall CFBD athlete 5079574 Week 5 vs Minnesota: 10 attempts · 5.0 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.348 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Penn State: 14 attempts · 3.5 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.272 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Indiana: 12 attempts · 2.2 YPC · 41.7% success · -0.051 raw PPA.	36	3.5	0	35.6%	79 / 4.0
Savion Hiter CFBD athlete 5159046 Week 5 vs Minnesota: 8 attempts · 1.1 YPC · 25.0% success · -0.704 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Penn State: 10 attempts · 7.7 YPC · 40.0% success · 0.045 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Indiana: 10 attempts · 1.5 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.441 raw PPA.	28	3.6	0	27.7%	64 / 3.7
Tommy Carr CFBD athlete 5269403 Week 7 vs Penn State: 4 attempts · 9.0 YPC · 66.7% success · 1.578 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Indiana: 14 attempts · 0.7 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.124 raw PPA.	18	2.6	5	17.8%	20 / 3.2
Bryce Underwood CFBD athlete 5141741 Week 5 vs Minnesota: 10 attempts · 2.0 YPC · 57.1% success · 0.695 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Penn State: 2 attempts · 2.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.318 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Indiana: 1 attempts · -1.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.584 raw PPA.	13	1.8	3	12.9%	60 / 3.6
Bryson Kuzdzal CFBD athlete 5156348 Week 7 vs Penn State: 2 attempts · 19.0 YPC · 50.0% success · 1.922 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Indiana: 4 attempts · 2.8 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.038 raw PPA.	6	8.2	0	5.9%	15 / 5.3

Rutgers

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 111 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Antwan Raymond CFBD athlete 5209945 Week 5 vs Indiana: 11 attempts · 2.8 YPC · 36.4% success · -0.217 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Maryland: 16 attempts · 1.8 YPC · 25.0% success · -0.186 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Northwestern: 18 attempts · 8.3 YPC · 38.9% success · 0.287 raw PPA.	45	4.7	0	40.5%	123 / 5.3
Clay Thevenin CFBD athlete 5296378 Week 5 vs Indiana: 12 attempts · 3.9 YPC · 25.0% success · 0.127 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Maryland: 17 attempts · 6.4 YPC · 64.7% success · 0.501 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Northwestern: 14 attempts · 8.3 YPC · 57.1% success · 0.590 raw PPA.	43	6.3	0	38.7%	73 / 5.5
AJ Surace CFBD athlete 5079717 Week 5 vs Indiana: 7 attempts · -2.0 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.237 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Northwestern: 3 attempts · -2.3 YPC · 100.0% success · 0.294 raw PPA.	10	-2.1	6	9.0%	18 / -2.2
Dylan Lonergan CFBD athlete 4870900 Week 5 vs Indiana: 1 attempts · 0.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -4.262 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Maryland: 5 attempts · 3.6 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.185 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Northwestern: 1 attempts · 5.0 YPC · 0.0% success · 0.084 raw PPA.	7	3.3	1	6.3%	21 / 2.8
Sean Ashenfelder CFBD athlete 5172031 Week 5 vs Indiana: 2 attempts · -1.5 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.378 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Northwestern: 2 attempts · -1.5 YPC · 100.0% success · 0.234 raw PPA.	4	-1.5	1	3.6%	4 / -1.5

Team-only and unresolved attempts are outside this player population. Game PPA and success rates retain provider denominators; they are not pooled across games. Missing appearances do not establish player availability. This three-game window is separate from the 100-play form window.

Team matchup statistics

Offense vs defense

2026 season to date · through Week 8, captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.

Measure	RutgersOffense	MichiganDefense	MichiganOffense	RutgersDefense
PPA/play	+0.10 37th	-0.11 97th	+0.05 20th	+0.25 4th
Success rate	44.0% 58th	34.4% 93rd	40.3% 25th	46.9% 6th
Explosiveness	1.32 84th	1.09 94th	1.15 16th	1.29 24th
Standard-down PPA/play	-0.01 19th	-0.12 91st	-0.07 10th	+0.22 5th
Passing-down PPA/play	+0.33 69th	-0.08 95th	+0.31 66th	+0.34 17th
Havoc allowed / created	15.6% 39th	16.2% 55th	17.5% 14th	13.1% 14th

Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.

CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR

Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions

Preview captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:13:56 AM CDT · assembled Oct 30, 2026, 6:13:56 AM CDT

Checking current kickoff time before showing captured pregame metrics.

2026 kicker PAAR

Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:13:38 AM CDT.

Dane Pizzaro · Rutgers · PAAR 2.65 · 7 attempts
Trey Butkowski · Michigan · PAAR 0.29 · 8 attempts

Player recent form

CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.

Checking kickoff before showing recent player metrics.

Captured line movement

Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Oct 30, 2026, 16:20:05 CDT · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.

Loading recorded line history… Open this game’s recorded history.

Line history & team context

Card snapshot lines

Rutgers spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.

DraftKings

CFBD-reported opening: +14 · Snapshot spread: +15.5

First locally observed: +14 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: a8c42f976191b616f9a7a2f6dec7255a67c83761cfa6f554b313d2e394aa9c88

Total · CFBD-reported opening: 47.5 · Snapshot total: 45.5

Total · First locally observed: 47.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Total observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: a8c42f976191b616f9a7a2f6dec7255a67c83761cfa6f554b313d2e394aa9c88

Home moneyline · Snapshot: +500 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Home moneyline · First locally observed: +455 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Home moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: a8c42f976191b616f9a7a2f6dec7255a67c83761cfa6f554b313d2e394aa9c88

Away moneyline · Snapshot: -700 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Away moneyline · First locally observed: -625 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Away moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: a8c42f976191b616f9a7a2f6dec7255a67c83761cfa6f554b313d2e394aa9c88

Bovada

CFBD-reported opening: +14 · Snapshot spread: +16

First locally observed: +14 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7

Total · CFBD-reported opening: 48 · Snapshot total: 45.5

Total · First locally observed: 48 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Total observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7

Home moneyline · Snapshot: +450 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Home moneyline · First locally observed: +450 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Home moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7

Away moneyline · Snapshot: -650 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Away moneyline · First locally observed: -650 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Away moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7

Rutgers

Net adjusted EPA/play -0.1 · 8 rated weeks · Big Ten

12th FBS percentile

Michigan

Net adjusted EPA/play +0.1 · 8 rated weeks · Big Ten

74th FBS percentile

Travel

Michigan travels 495 miles (longer than half of road trips, 2017–2025).

Distance uses the campuses because this schedule has no venue.

The 2017–2025 study found no overall ATS edge. Distance and time-zone groups cover near a coin flip. The 2,500+ mile group is above break-even but dominated by Hawai'i trips, so it is not a betting rule.

Series history

Michigan leads 9–1 in 10 meetings since 2014.

2023Rutgers at Michigan7–31 · Michigan
2022Michigan at Rutgers52–17 · Michigan
2021Rutgers at Michigan13–20 · Michigan
2020Michigan at Rutgers48–42 · Michigan
2019Rutgers at Michigan0–52 · Michigan
2018Michigan at Rutgers42–7 · Michigan

CFBD matchup data Last 6 meetings shown. N marks a neutral site. History is not a projection input.

Team style charts

Model output, not betting advice. Historical hit rates are small-sample backtests; several edge buckets lose money at -110. Flat units only.