Week 9 · 2026

Ohio State at USC

Visual game report

Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.

Player production & success

CFBD regular season · through week 8 · observed 2026-10-30 UTC. Captured before kickoff.

Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.

Ohio State

Window: 2026-10-17 (reported) · 2026-10-10 (reported) · 2026-10-03 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-31T23:30:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Julian Sayin QB 3 games	46.4% 39 / 84 plays	58.3% 7 / 12 plays
Bo Jackson RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	45.6% 26 / 57 plays
Ja'Kobi Jackson RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	53.6% 15 / 28 plays
Isaiah West RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	46.2% 6 / 13 plays
Legend Bey RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	14.3% 1 / 7 plays
Luke Fahey QB 1 games	0.0% 0 / 2 plays	— 0 / 0 plays
Jeremiah Smith WR 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 1 plays

Traditional season production · 66 players

Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Ashton Yeager · DT

CFBD athlete 5295263

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 0

Beau Atkinson · DE

CFBD athlete 4703062

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.0
defensive · TOT: 8

Blaine Bradford · S

CFBD athlete 5158967

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Bo Jackson · RB

CFBD athlete 5141517

receiving · LONG: 13
receiving · REC: 11
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 71
receiving · YPR: 6.5
rushing · CAR: 107
rushing · LONG: 65
rushing · TD: 4
rushing · YDS: 516
rushing · YPC: 4.8

Brandon Inniss · WR

CFBD athlete 4870835

puntReturns · AVG: 8.7
puntReturns · LONG: 16
puntReturns · NO: 3
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 26
receiving · LONG: 49
receiving · REC: 11
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 153
receiving · YPR: 13.9

Braxton Rembert · LB

CFBD athlete 5291777

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 3

Brennen Schramm · WR

CFBD athlete 5150711

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Brenten Jones · S

CFBD athlete 5081811

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Brock Boyd · WR

CFBD athlete 5161804

receiving · LONG: 39
receiving · REC: 6
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 110
receiving · YPR: 18.3

Brody Lennon · TE

CFBD athlete 5214446

kickReturns · AVG: 0.0
kickReturns · LONG: 0
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 0
receiving · LONG: 4
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 4
receiving · YPR: 4.0

CJ Sanna · LB

CFBD athlete 5248176

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Cameron Calhoun · CB

CFBD athlete 4923052

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 7

Chris Henry Jr. · WR

CFBD athlete 5159009

receiving · LONG: 75
receiving · REC: 6
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 202
receiving · YPR: 33.7

Christian Alliegro · LB

CFBD athlete 5120968

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 21
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Cincere Johnson · LB

CFBD athlete 5209313

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Connor Hawkins · PK

CFBD athlete 5156433

kicking · FGA: 10
kicking · FGM: 8
kicking · LONG: 48
kicking · PCT: 0.800
kicking · PTS: 58
kicking · XPA: 34
kicking · XPM: 34

Cooper Peterson · PK

CFBD athlete 5333144

kicking · FGA: 0
kicking · FGM: 0
kicking · LONG: 0
kicking · PCT: 0
kicking · PTS: 1
kicking · XPA: 1
kicking · XPM: 1

Damari Simeon · DT

CFBD athlete 5245135

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Darryus McKinley · DT

CFBD athlete 5159030

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

De'Zie Jones · WR

CFBD athlete 5141494

puntReturns · AVG: 4.5
puntReturns · LONG: 9
puntReturns · NO: 2
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 9

Deshawn Stewart · S

CFBD athlete 5179136

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Devin Mccuin · WR

CFBD athlete 5076952

kickReturns · AVG: 20.0
kickReturns · LONG: 20
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 20
receiving · LONG: 34
receiving · REC: 19
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 268
receiving · YPR: 14.1

Devin Sanchez · CB

CFBD athlete 5141635

defensive · PD: 6
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 22
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 28

Dominick Kelly · CB

CFBD athlete 5208133

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 1

Dre Quinn · DE

CFBD athlete 5245509

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Earl Little II · S

CFBD athlete 4685437

defensive · PD: 4
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 15
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 38
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Eddrick Houston · DT

CFBD athlete 5079485

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 14

Epi Sitanilei · DE

CFBD athlete 5156154

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 3

Favour Akih · RB

CFBD athlete 5244752

rushing · CAR: 8
rushing · LONG: 5
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 13
rushing · YPC: 1.6

Garrett Stover · LB

CFBD athlete 5079603

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Hunter Welcing · TE

CFBD athlete 4431009

receiving · LONG: 4
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 4
receiving · YPR: 4.0

Isaiah West · RB

CFBD athlete 5141701

receiving · LONG: 10
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 37
receiving · YPR: 7.4
rushing · CAR: 28
rushing · LONG: 22
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 125
rushing · YPC: 4.5

Ja'Kobi Jackson · RB

CFBD athlete 5151892

receiving · LONG: 5
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 8
receiving · YPR: 4.0
rushing · CAR: 59
rushing · LONG: 49
rushing · TD: 6
rushing · YDS: 354
rushing · YPC: 6.0

James Smith · DT

CFBD athlete 4870969

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 8

Jamir Perez · DT

CFBD athlete 5282572

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Jason Moore · DT

CFBD athlete 4870950

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 18

Jay Timmons · CB

CFBD athlete 5276976

defensive · PD: 5
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 12
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 16
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Jaylen McClain · S

CFBD athlete 5079518

defensive · PD: 4
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 15
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 32
interceptions · AVG: 3.5
interceptions · INT: 2
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 7

Jeremiah Smith · WR

CFBD athlete 5079720

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 72
receiving · REC: 52
receiving · TD: 12
receiving · YDS: 984
receiving · YPR: 18.9
rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 5
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 7
rushing · YPC: 3.5

Jermaine Mathews Jr. · CB

CFBD athlete 5150710

defensive · PD: 5
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 16
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 27

Jerquaden Guilford · WR

CFBD athlete 5209946

receiving · LONG: 12
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 12
receiving · YPR: 12.0

Joe McGuire · P

CFBD athlete 5159957

punting · In 20: 8
punting · LONG: 56
punting · NO: 19
punting · TB: 2
punting · YDS: 832
punting · YPP: 43.8

John Walker · DT

CFBD athlete 4871055

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 12

Jordan Thomas · CB

CFBD athlete 5159079

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Julian Sayin · QB

CFBD athlete 5079712

fumbles · FUM: 4
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 192
passing · COMPLETIONS: 131
passing · INT: 4
passing · PCT: 0.682
passing · TD: 19
passing · YDS: 2007
passing · YPA: 10.5
rushing · CAR: 37
rushing · LONG: 9
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: -9
rushing · YPC: -0.2

Kenyatta Jackson · DE

CFBD athlete 5081821

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 3
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.0
defensive · TOT: 22

Khary Wilder · DE

CFBD athlete 5276572

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 4
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Kyle Parker · WR

CFBD athlete 4900640

receiving · LONG: 16
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 16
receiving · YPR: 16.0

Legend Bey · RB

CFBD athlete 5182122

kickReturns · AVG: 18.0
kickReturns · LONG: 29
kickReturns · NO: 4
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 72
receiving · LONG: 25
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 37
receiving · YPR: 18.5
rushing · CAR: 15
rushing · LONG: 24
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 56
rushing · YPC: 3.7

Leroy Roker III · S

CFBD athlete 5176115

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 7

Luke Fahey · QB

CFBD athlete 5214646

passing · ATT: 13
passing · COMPLETIONS: 9
passing · INT: 2
passing · PCT: 0.692
passing · TD: 2
passing · YDS: 203
passing · YPA: 15.6
rushing · CAR: 3
rushing · LONG: 8
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 1
rushing · YPC: 0.3

Mason Williams · TE

CFBD athlete 5081611

receiving · LONG: 28
receiving · REC: 7
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 82
receiving · YPR: 11.7

Max LeBlanc · TE

CFBD athlete 5116115

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
kickReturns · AVG: 16.0
kickReturns · LONG: 16
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 16
receiving · LONG: 6
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 12
receiving · YPR: 6.0

Nate Roberts · TE

CFBD athlete 5141656

receiving · LONG: 68
receiving · REC: 11
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 178
receiving · YPR: 16.2

Payton Pierce · LB

CFBD athlete 5079667

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 13
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 37
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Phillip Bell · WR

CFBD athlete 5141384

puntReturns · AVG: 5.8
puntReturns · LONG: 31
puntReturns · NO: 13
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 75
receiving · LONG: 23
receiving · REC: 7
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 84
receiving · YPR: 12.0

Qua Russaw · DE

CFBD athlete 5150251

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.5
defensive · TOT: 14

Riley Pettijohn · LB

CFBD athlete 5141630

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.0
defensive · TOT: 22
interceptions · AVG: 8.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 8

Ryan Rudzinski · S

CFBD athlete 5150713

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Simeon Caldwell · S

CFBD athlete 5160481

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 9

Stanley Jackson · RB

CFBD athlete 5226888

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 5
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 8
rushing · YPC: 4.0

Tarvos Alford · LB

CFBD athlete 5141355

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 19
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1
interceptions · AVG: 2.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 2

Tavien St. Clair · QB

CFBD athlete 5146824

passing · ATT: 7
passing · COMPLETIONS: 5
passing · INT: 1
passing · PCT: 0.714
passing · TD: 1
passing · YDS: 52
passing · YPA: 7.4
rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 7
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 8
rushing · YPC: 4.0

Terry Moore · S

CFBD athlete 4869820

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Will Smith Jr. · DT

CFBD athlete 4915838

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 12

Zion Grady · DE

CFBD athlete 5141481

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 7

USC

Window: 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-10 (reported) · 2026-10-03 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-31T23:30:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Jayden Maiava QB 3 games	50.0% 62 / 124 plays	0.0% 0 / 2 plays
King Miller RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	32.6% 15 / 46 plays
Waymond Jordan RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	56.3% 9 / 16 plays
Shahn Alston RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	75.0% 6 / 8 plays
Deshonne Redeaux RB 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	50.0% 1 / 2 plays
Trent Mosley WR 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	100.0% 1 / 1 plays
Kayden Dixon-Wyatt WR 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 1 plays

Traditional season production · 61 players

Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Aaron Dunn · OL

CFBD athlete 5295321

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Alex Graham · CB

CFBD athlete 5141468

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.0
defensive · TOT: 15

Alex VanSumeren · DT

CFBD athlete 4685561

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 14

Brandon Lockhart · CB

CFBD athlete 5159022

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Braylan Shelby · DE

CFBD athlete 4870993

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 9

Caden Chittenden · PK

CFBD athlete 5192405

kicking · FGA: 10
kicking · FGM: 7
kicking · LONG: 39
kicking · PCT: 0.700
kicking · PTS: 52
kicking · XPA: 31
kicking · XPM: 31

Carrington Pierce · CB

CFBD athlete 5296208

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Carson Tabaracci · TE

CFBD athlete 4905248

receiving · LONG: 29
receiving · REC: 8
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 74
receiving · YPR: 9.3

Chasen Johnson · CB

CFBD athlete 5146986

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 9
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Christian Pierce · S

CFBD athlete 4921312

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 29
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 44
interceptions · AVG: 16.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 16

Corey Simms · WR

CFBD athlete 5148664

puntReturns · AVG: 0.0
puntReturns · LONG: 0
puntReturns · NO: 1
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 0
receiving · LONG: 52
receiving · REC: 12
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 178
receiving · YPR: 14.8

Deshonne Redeaux · RB

CFBD athlete 5159076

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 18.0
kickReturns · LONG: 26
kickReturns · NO: 6
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 108
rushing · CAR: 6
rushing · LONG: 15
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 37
rushing · YPC: 6.2

Desman Stephens II · LB

CFBD athlete 5110498

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 22
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.5
defensive · TOT: 36

Deven Bryant · LB

CFBD athlete 4923048

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 28
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 44

Elbert Hill IV · CB

CFBD athlete 5159244

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Elijah Newby · LB

CFBD athlete 5146857

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 3

Ethan Feaster · WR

CFBD athlete 5268018

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 16.5
kickReturns · LONG: 25
kickReturns · NO: 6
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 99
receiving · LONG: 27
receiving · REC: 10
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 96
receiving · YPR: 9.6

Floyd Boucard · DT

CFBD athlete 5203712

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 9
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

GianCarlo Rufo · LB

CFBD athlete 5152637

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Isaiah Rubin · S

CFBD athlete 5079706

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 4

Jadyn Ramos · DE

CFBD athlete 5265421

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 5
kickReturns · AVG: 2.0
kickReturns · LONG: 2
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 2

Jadyn Walker · LB

CFBD athlete 5148844

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 11

Jahkeem Stewart · DT

CFBD athlete 5159077

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 7
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Jaimeon Winfield · DT

CFBD athlete 5245138

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Jake Johnson · DT

CFBD athlete 5276949

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Jamaal Jarrett · DT

CFBD athlete 4870812

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Jayden Crowder · CB

CFBD athlete 5161814

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Jayden Maiava · QB

CFBD athlete 4685454

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 274
passing · COMPLETIONS: 183
passing · INT: 5
passing · PCT: 0.668
passing · TD: 19
passing · YDS: 2303
passing · YPA: 8.4
rushing · CAR: 25
rushing · LONG: 12
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: -62
rushing · YPC: -2.5

Jide Abasiri · DT

CFBD athlete 5138455

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 13
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.5
defensive · TOT: 21

Jonas Williams · QB

CFBD athlete 5161854

passing · ATT: 14
passing · COMPLETIONS: 12
passing · INT: 1
passing · PCT: 0.857
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 126
passing · YPA: 9.0
rushing · CAR: 3
rushing · LONG: 9
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 3
rushing · YPC: 1.0

Jontez Williams · CB

CFBD athlete 4913037

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 16

Kameryn Fountain · DE

CFBD athlete 5132218

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 1.5
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.0
defensive · TOT: 25

Kayden Dixon-Wyatt · WR

CFBD athlete 5161013

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 32
receiving · REC: 32
receiving · TD: 4
receiving · YDS: 443
receiving · YPR: 13.8
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 0
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -5
rushing · YPC: -5.0

Kennedy Urlacher · S

CFBD athlete 5110020

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 3
defensive · SOLO: 19
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 5
defensive · TOT: 23

King Miller · RB

CFBD athlete 5233016

fumbles · FUM: 2
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 12
receiving · REC: 7
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 41
receiving · YPR: 5.9
rushing · CAR: 125
rushing · LONG: 35
rushing · TD: 4
rushing · YDS: 603
rushing · YPC: 4.8

Lachlan Carrigan · P

CFBD athlete 5295365

punting · In 20: 5
punting · LONG: 56
punting · NO: 13
punting · TB: 2
punting · YDS: 643
punting · YPP: 49.5

Luke Wafle · DE

CFBD athlete 5159091

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 3
defensive · SOLO: 24
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 7.5
defensive · TOT: 33

Madden Riordan · S

CFBD athlete 5182803

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Marcelles Williams · CB

CFBD athlete 5079739

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 6

Mark Bowman · TE

CFBD athlete 5264686

receiving · LONG: 35
receiving · REC: 21
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 204
receiving · YPR: 9.7

Peyton Dyer · S

CFBD athlete 5245503

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Prophet Brown · CB

CFBD athlete 4683061

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 11
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 16
interceptions · AVG: 49.5
interceptions · INT: 2
interceptions · TD: 1
interceptions · YDS: 99

RJ Sermons · CB

CFBD athlete 5160501

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 8

Riley Wormley · RB

CFBD athlete 5144164

kickReturns · AVG: 10.0
kickReturns · LONG: 9
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 10
receiving · LONG: 19
receiving · REC: 9
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 78
receiving · YPR: 8.7
rushing · CAR: 13
rushing · LONG: 27
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 71
rushing · YPC: 5.5

Ryan O'Connell · LB

CFBD athlete 5084407

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Ryon Sayeri · P

CFBD athlete 5221037

kicking · FGA: 1
kicking · FGM: 0
kicking · LONG: 0
kicking · PCT: 0.000
kicking · PTS: 0
kicking · XPA: 0
kicking · XPM: 0

Shahn Alston · RB

CFBD athlete 5158934

receiving · LONG: 15
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 12
receiving · YPR: 6.0
rushing · CAR: 24
rushing · LONG: 15
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 120
rushing · YPC: 5.0

Simote Katoanga · DE

CFBD athlete 5162996

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Ta'Mere Robinson · LB

CFBD athlete 4870996

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 13

Talanoa Ili · LB

CFBD athlete 5159054

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 7

Taniela Tupou · TE

CFBD athlete 5209130

receiving · LONG: 25
receiving · REC: 8
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 71
receiving · YPR: 8.9

Tanook Hines · WR

CFBD athlete 5141975

receiving · LONG: 40
receiving · REC: 19
receiving · TD: 4
receiving · YDS: 239
receiving · YPR: 12.6

Terrell Anderson · WR

CFBD athlete 5084658

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
puntReturns · AVG: 7.0
puntReturns · LONG: 18
puntReturns · NO: 6
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 42
receiving · LONG: 28
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 50
receiving · YPR: 25.0

Tomuhini Topui · DT

CFBD athlete 5159081

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Trent Mosley · WR

CFBD athlete 5160469

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
puntReturns · AVG: 24.0
puntReturns · LONG: 86
puntReturns · NO: 7
puntReturns · TD: 1
puntReturns · YDS: 168
receiving · LONG: 68
receiving · REC: 27
receiving · TD: 5
receiving · YDS: 411
receiving · YPR: 15.2
rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 9
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 17
rushing · YPC: 8.5

Tron Baker · WR

CFBD athlete 5158959

receiving · LONG: 27
receiving · REC: 9
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 124
receiving · YPR: 13.8

Tucker Ashcraft · TE

CFBD athlete 5032961

receiving · LONG: 12
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 33
receiving · YPR: 11.0

Walter Matthews · TE

CFBD athlete 5079510

receiving · LONG: 12
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 12
receiving · YPR: 12.0

Waymond Jordan · RB

CFBD athlete 5295318

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 20
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 34
receiving · YPR: 6.8
rushing · CAR: 63
rushing · LONG: 16
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 287
rushing · YPC: 4.6

Zach Williams · WR

CFBD athlete 5146757

puntReturns · AVG: 5.0
puntReturns · LONG: 5
puntReturns · NO: 1
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 5
receiving · LONG: 44
receiving · REC: 20
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 329
receiving · YPR: 16.5
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 0
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -7
rushing · YPC: -7.0

Zuriah Fisher · DE

CFBD athlete 4587870

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 12

Pregame weather

Decision-time forecast unavailable

No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.

Weather context

Weather record unavailable

Evidence cutoff: 2026-10-26T04:30:00+00:00. This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.

No matching weather context has been published for this game.

Verified pregame availability: Unavailable
Measurement units: Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
Forecast issue time: Unavailable
Forecast valid time: Unavailable

Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.

Latest published card · In-season model

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.

Pick at comparison line

No pick

Comparison line · CFBD median

Ohio State -6.5

DraftKings snapshot: USC +6.5

EPA-OLS forecast · margin in points

Ohio State by 5.36

1.14 points toward USC versus the spread. gap below pick minimum The gap is not a cover probability.

Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast

Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately

Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward USC.

Net EPA rating difference: -9.30
Fitted offset: +5.87
Fitted home field: -1.93

Reconciles to -5.36 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.

Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.

Fit 43a90c4d579143e4336475325da6c037c0829278871c947a48303983b181ca72 · inputs a4f697d28030f6b43f17b8c90824c4f869f70f67c236fd6a4264105b6371ee3e · training 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517 · forecast 4b0c9eae7f584f324cbe1dd16faed8e8651e3aac89e2e5dda7ba25b01e213457 · through week 8.

What changed?

12 saved cards for this game

Earlier saved card

No change in spread, forecast or model gap.

The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.

Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.

Home team: USC · all values in points
Recorded value	Earlier	Latest
Market spread	+6.5	+6.5
Model spread	+5.36	+5.36
Model gap	+1.14	+1.14

Negative spreads favor USC; positive model gap favors them too.

Capture times & sources

Earlier saved card

Generated Oct 29, 2026, 06:13:15 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Oct 29, 2026, 06:02:06 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Latest published card

Generated Oct 30, 2026, 06:10:26 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Model gap = market spread minus model spread.

This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.

Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.

Earlier saved card SHA-256: e2870225a3550ae3bff530e07f507a37ae8d297571a1fb3ae0be6cba56aae72d
Odds source SHA-256: c3afde8edfd04c38da42b18ab61b68542f93145177f25e3612c5230361aae058
Latest published card SHA-256: 907219f79e16b585a5fe31cf6748ec05ab06f7cd820077da867137c7509faba4
Odds source SHA-256: 979caa9e279ac4fb8cf2a315090127f7866efb485202ff3448873ffea01f6148

View recorded snapshot data

Model context & pick method

Pick logic

Card generated Oct 30, 2026, 06:10:26 CDT. Captured prices are not live quotes.

Output:: Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
Model:: EPA-OLS
Training:: 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8; 229 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Features:: EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: a4f697d28030f6b43f17b8c90824c4f869f70f67c236fd6a4264105b6371ee3e. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Evaluation:: EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.

Training: 229 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8.

Training-only RMSE: 15.64 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.

No pick · gap below pick minimum · gap +1.1 points, minimum 3.0

Win probabilities · separate sources

USC win probability by source

EPA-OLS calibrated win probability: Unavailable; Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
CFBD market-based probability: 33%; Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:02:01 CDT; CFBD source spread: USC +6.5
Stacked ensemble: 35%; Stacked ensemble from the model pack

Explain this StackedEnsemble probability

Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.

Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward USC.

away elo: -16.43 (path difference 5.36)
away adjusted success: -14.82 (path difference 2.93)
home elo: +14.64 (path difference 2.39)
home adjusted passing epa: +11.80 (path difference 2.86)
home adjusted success: +10.92 (path difference 5.81)
away talent: -9.21 (path difference 0.83)
away adjusted epa allowed: -7.79 (path difference 2.06)
away adjusted rushing epa allowed: +7.15 (path difference 2.54)
away adjusted epa: -6.82 (path difference 4.97)
away adjusted passing epa allowed: +6.16 (path difference 2.89)
away adjusted success allowed: -6.03 (path difference 0.10)
home talent: +5.75 (path difference 0.37)
away adjusted standard down success: +4.15 (path difference 0.60)
home adjusted second level yards: +3.60 (path difference 2.30)
home adjusted open field yards allowed: +2.68 (path difference 0.61)
home adjusted open field yards: -2.60 (path difference 0.32)
away adjusted standard down success allowed: -2.50 (path difference 5.33)
home adjusted epa: -2.15 (path difference 3.28)
away adjusted second level yards allowed: -2.08 (path difference 0.12)
home adjusted rushing epa allowed: +1.98 (path difference 0.29)
home adjusted rushing epa: -1.96 (path difference 1.38)
home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +1.87 (path difference 0.00)
away adjusted explosiveness: +1.85 (path difference 1.13)
away adjusted open field yards allowed: -1.58 (path difference 2.97)
away adjusted line yards: -1.54 (path difference 1.78)
away adjusted passing down success allowed: -1.53 (path difference 1.86)
away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +1.52 (path difference 0.32)
home adjusted epa allowed: -1.30 (path difference 3.04)
away adjusted open field yards: +1.29 (path difference 0.00)
home adjusted second level yards allowed: +1.15 (path difference 1.42)
away adjusted rushing epa: +1.01 (path difference 0.04)
home adjusted passing down success allowed: -0.88 (path difference 0.40)
away adjusted second level yards: +0.75 (path difference 0.66)
away adjusted passing down success: -0.70 (path difference 0.44)
home adjusted standard down success: +0.69 (path difference 0.76)
home adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.64 (path difference 0.78)
home adjusted standard down success allowed: -0.61 (path difference 0.89)
away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.56 (path difference 0.44)
away adjusted line yards allowed: +0.56 (path difference 0.49)
home adjusted explosiveness allowed: -0.51 (path difference 1.33)
home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: -0.50 (path difference 0.01)
home adjusted passing down success: -0.46 (path difference 0.77)
away adjusted passing epa: +0.39 (path difference 1.25)
away adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.38 (path difference 1.35)
home adjusted explosiveness: +0.37 (path difference 0.06)
home adjusted success allowed: -0.30 (path difference 0.26)
away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: -0.29 (path difference 0.02)
home adjusted line yards: -0.19 (path difference 0.01)
away adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.18 (path difference 0.08)
away conference: +0.17 (path difference 0.41)
home adjusted line yards allowed: -0.12 (path difference 0.44)
week: -0.09 (path difference 1.14)
home conference: -0.04 (path difference 0.01)
home adjusted passing epa allowed: +0.03 (path difference 0.43)
home adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.01 (path difference 0.72)

Reconciles to 35.19 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.

Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.

Fit 1ad7d19a4f250d7f5c62cdf95b70289b6ffd1cf8bdf8feb12b8623f27e5aa234 · inputs 7503c7e8d84f26af4c48362c98f3ab94f06df26638da0eed2b5491e07a4312a3 · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast 29535fedb2d56be9cd54af0ac38bf52582f02a39da5c4427a0fb680c0fa58566 · through week 8.

Output:: Home win probability (%), display only
Model:: StackedEnsemble
Training:: Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
Features:: Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Evaluation:: Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record

The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.

Rushing workload · last three team games

CFBD individually attributed rushing attempts, including attributed sacks. Captured before kickoff; descriptive context, separate from the forecast. Through 2026-10-30 UTC.

Ohio State

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 127 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Bo Jackson CFBD athlete 5141517 Week 5 vs Iowa: 16 attempts · 4.4 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.222 raw PPA. Week 6 vs Maryland: 23 attempts · 4.7 YPC · 56.5% success · 0.276 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Indiana: 18 attempts · 3.1 YPC · 27.8% success · -0.044 raw PPA.	57	4.1	0	44.9%	107 / 4.8
Ja'Kobi Jackson CFBD athlete 5151892 Week 5 vs Iowa: 14 attempts · 5.1 YPC · 57.1% success · 0.409 raw PPA. Week 6 vs Maryland: 14 attempts · 5.4 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.216 raw PPA.	28	5.3	0	22.0%	59 / 6.0
Julian Sayin CFBD athlete 5079712 Week 5 vs Iowa: 9 attempts · -0.1 YPC · 40.0% success · 0.406 raw PPA. Week 6 vs Maryland: 7 attempts · 1.6 YPC · 60.0% success · 0.733 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Indiana: 5 attempts · -5.2 YPC · 100.0% success · 0.429 raw PPA.	21	-0.8	9	16.5%	37 / -0.2
Isaiah West CFBD athlete 5141701 Week 5 vs Iowa: 7 attempts · 3.0 YPC · 42.9% success · -0.245 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Indiana: 6 attempts · 7.5 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.271 raw PPA.	13	5.1	0	10.2%	28 / 4.5
Legend Bey CFBD athlete 5182122 Week 6 vs Maryland: 4 attempts · 3.3 YPC · 25.0% success · -0.092 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Indiana: 3 attempts · 2.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.258 raw PPA.	7	2.7	0	5.5%	15 / 3.7

USC

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 83 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
King Miller CFBD athlete 5233016 Week 5 vs Washington: 17 attempts · 4.6 YPC · 29.4% success · -0.095 raw PPA. Week 6 vs Penn State: 18 attempts · 5.8 YPC · 44.4% success · 0.245 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Wisconsin: 11 attempts · 0.7 YPC · 18.2% success · -0.458 raw PPA.	46	4.2	0	55.4%	123 / 4.9
Waymond Jordan CFBD athlete 5295318 Week 5 vs Washington: 10 attempts · 3.3 YPC · 70.0% success · 0.549 raw PPA. Week 6 vs Penn State: 6 attempts · 3.7 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.067 raw PPA.	16	3.4	0	19.3%	64 / 4.5
Shahn Alston CFBD athlete 5158934 Week 5 vs Washington: 1 attempts · 8.0 YPC · 100.0% success · 0.756 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Wisconsin: 8 attempts · 3.5 YPC · 62.5% success · 0.053 raw PPA.	9	4.0	0	10.8%	25 / 4.8
Jayden Maiava CFBD athlete 4685454 Week 5 vs Washington: 2 attempts · -4.5 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.355 raw PPA. Week 6 vs Penn State: 2 attempts · -0.5 YPC · 0.0% success · 0.044 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Wisconsin: 4 attempts · -12.2 YPC · 0.0% success · 0.000 raw PPA.	8	-7.4	6	9.6%	22 / -2.7
Deshonne Redeaux CFBD athlete 5159076 Week 8 vs Wisconsin: 2 attempts · 2.0 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.438 raw PPA.	2	2.0	0	2.4%	6 / 6.2

Team-only and unresolved attempts are outside this player population. Game PPA and success rates retain provider denominators; they are not pooled across games. Missing appearances do not establish player availability. This three-game window is separate from the 100-play form window.

Team matchup statistics

Offense vs defense

2026 season to date · through Week 8, captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.

Measure	USCOffense	Ohio StateDefense	Ohio StateOffense	USCDefense
PPA/play	+0.24 82nd	-0.09 96th	+0.28 91st	+0.13 30th
Success rate	51.0% 96th	34.7% 90th	49.2% 88th	41.1% 47th
Explosiveness	1.17 24th	1.19 66th	1.30 79th	1.28 28th
Standard-down PPA/play	+0.17 78th	-0.18 98th	+0.28 96th	+0.08 32nd
Passing-down PPA/play	+0.43 87th	+0.08 78th	+0.26 54th	+0.23 36th
Havoc allowed / created	11.7% 89th	18.2% 81st	13.6% 68th	12.8% 12th

Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.

CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR

Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions

Preview captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:14:40 AM CDT · assembled Oct 30, 2026, 6:14:40 AM CDT

Checking current kickoff time before showing captured pregame metrics.

2026 kicker PAAR

Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:13:38 AM CDT.

Connor Hawkins · Ohio State · PAAR 0.36 · 10 attempts
Caden Chittenden · USC · PAAR -0.84 · 10 attempts
Ryon Sayeri · USC · PAAR -0.91 · 1 attempts

Player recent form

CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.

Checking kickoff before showing recent player metrics.

Captured line movement

Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Oct 30, 2026, 16:20:05 CDT · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.

Loading recorded line history… Open this game’s recorded history.

Line history & team context

Card snapshot lines

USC spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.

DraftKings

CFBD-reported opening: +7.5 · Snapshot spread: +6.5

First locally observed: +7.5 · captured Sep 14, 2026, 15:19:41 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: df966d27d63907ad2bd804eb0a1e3bd97821607bf88be6c42776c3be3f5aa41e

Total · CFBD-reported opening: 54.5 · Snapshot total: 51.5

Total · First locally observed: 54.5 · captured Sep 14, 2026, 15:19:41 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Total observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: df966d27d63907ad2bd804eb0a1e3bd97821607bf88be6c42776c3be3f5aa41e

Home moneyline · Snapshot: +200 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Home moneyline · First locally observed: +260 · captured Sep 14, 2026, 15:19:41 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Home moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: df966d27d63907ad2bd804eb0a1e3bd97821607bf88be6c42776c3be3f5aa41e

Away moneyline · Snapshot: -245 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Away moneyline · First locally observed: -325 · captured Sep 14, 2026, 15:19:41 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Away moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: df966d27d63907ad2bd804eb0a1e3bd97821607bf88be6c42776c3be3f5aa41e

Bovada

CFBD-reported opening: +7 · Snapshot spread: +6.5

First locally observed: +7 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7

Total · CFBD-reported opening: 51 · Snapshot total: 51.5

Total · First locally observed: 50.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Total observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7

Home moneyline · Snapshot: +220 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Home moneyline · First locally observed: +220 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Home moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7

Away moneyline · Snapshot: -270 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Away moneyline · First locally observed: -270 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Away moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7

USC

Net adjusted EPA/play +0.1 · 8 rated weeks · Big Ten

77th FBS percentile

Ohio State

Net adjusted EPA/play +0.2 · 8 rated weeks · Big Ten

96th FBS percentile

Travel

Ohio State travels 1,976 miles (longer than 90% of road trips, 2017–2025) · 3 time zones crossed · down 571 ft in elevation.

Distance uses the campuses because this schedule has no venue.

The 2017–2025 study found no overall ATS edge. Distance and time-zone groups cover near a coin flip. The 2,500+ mile group is above break-even but dominated by Hawai'i trips, so it is not a betting rule.

Series history

USC leads 13–10, 1 tie in 24 meetings since 1937.

2017 · NUSC at Ohio State7–24 · Ohio State
2009USC at Ohio State18–15 · USC
2008Ohio State at USC3–35 · USC
1990USC at Ohio State35–26 · USC
1989Ohio State at USC3–42 · USC
1984 · NOhio State at USC17–20 · USC

CFBD matchup data Last 6 meetings shown. N marks a neutral site. History is not a projection input.

Team style charts

Model output, not betting advice. Historical hit rates are small-sample backtests; several edge buckets lose money at -110. Flat units only.