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Week 10 · 2026

Michigan State at Michigan

Visual game report

Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.

Player production & success

CFBD regular season · through week 9 · observed 2026-11-06 UTC. Captured before kickoff.

Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.

Michigan State

Window: 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported) · 2026-10-10 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-08T00:30:00+00:00.

PlayerPassingRushing
Alessio Milivojevic QB
2 games
50.0%
29 / 58 plays
42.9%
3 / 7 plays
Jaziun Patterson RB
2 games
—
0 / 0 plays
50.0%
16 / 32 plays
Kenneth Williams RB
2 games
—
0 / 0 plays
27.8%
5 / 18 plays
Leo Hannan QB
1 games
31.3%
5 / 16 plays
—
0 / 0 plays
Kayd Coffman QB
1 games
23.1%
3 / 13 plays
0.0%
0 / 2 plays
Marvis Parrish RB
3 games
—
0 / 0 plays
33.3%
2 / 6 plays
Carson Gulker TE
3 games
100.0%
1 / 1 plays
0.0%
0 / 4 plays
Chrishon Mccray WR
2 games
—
0 / 0 plays
66.7%
2 / 3 plays
Traditional season production · 61 players

Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Adam Shaw · LB

CFBD athlete 5289613

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Alessio Milivojevic · QB

CFBD athlete 5146670

fumbles · FUM
4
fumbles · LOST
2
fumbles · REC
0
passing · ATT
185
passing · COMPLETIONS
121
passing · INT
3
passing · PCT
0.654
passing · TD
7
passing · YDS
1263
passing · YPA
6.8
rushing · CAR
41
rushing · LONG
13
rushing · TD
1
rushing · YDS
-14
rushing · YPC
-0.3
Andrew Brinson IV · CB

CFBD athlete 5147374

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
3
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
5
Anelu Lafaele · EDGE

CFBD athlete 5146848

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
2
defensive · SACKS
2.5
defensive · SOLO
6
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
2.5
defensive · TOT
14
Aveon Grose · S

CFBD athlete 4695704

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
6
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
8
Ben Roberts · DL

CFBD athlete 4869649

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
2
defensive · SACKS
2
defensive · SOLO
11
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
5.0
defensive · TOT
26
Brady Pretzlaff · LB

CFBD athlete 5124585

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
13
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
26
Brandon Tullis · RB

CFBD athlete 5150125

receiving · LONG
6
receiving · REC
1
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
6
receiving · YPR
6.0
rushing · CAR
11
rushing · LONG
13
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
53
rushing · YPC
4.8
Braylon Collier · WR

CFBD athlete 5215135

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
receiving · LONG
17
receiving · REC
2
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
23
receiving · YPR
11.5
Brennan Parachek · TE

CFBD athlete 4894451

fumbles · FUM
1
fumbles · LOST
1
fumbles · REC
0
receiving · LONG
24
receiving · REC
6
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
62
receiving · YPR
10.3
Bryson Williams · WR

CFBD athlete 5211482

receiving · LONG
32
receiving · REC
3
receiving · TD
1
receiving · YDS
70
receiving · YPR
23.3
Cal Thrush · DL

CFBD athlete 5216795

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Caleb Gash · S

CFBD athlete 5159980

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
3
Caleb Wheatland · LB

CFBD athlete 4869121

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
2
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
14
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0.5
defensive · TOT
23
Cam Fancher · QB

CFBD athlete 4700135

passing · ATT
11
passing · COMPLETIONS
8
passing · INT
1
passing · PCT
0.727
passing · TD
0
passing · YDS
59
passing · YPA
5.4
rushing · CAR
10
rushing · LONG
15
rushing · TD
1
rushing · YDS
27
rushing · YPC
2.7
Cam Stodghill · LB

CFBD athlete 5156962

defensive · PD
4
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
15
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1.5
defensive · TOT
34
Camryn Edwards · RB

CFBD athlete 5086034

fumbles · FUM
1
fumbles · LOST
1
fumbles · REC
0
receiving · LONG
23
receiving · REC
4
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
35
receiving · YPR
8.8
rushing · CAR
64
rushing · LONG
40
rushing · TD
3
rushing · YDS
304
rushing · YPC
4.8
Carson Gulker · TE

CFBD athlete 4911541

passing · ATT
1
passing · COMPLETIONS
1
passing · INT
0
passing · PCT
1.000
passing · TD
0
passing · YDS
19
passing · YPA
19.0
rushing · CAR
4
rushing · LONG
4
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
9
rushing · YPC
2.3
Charles Brantley · CB

CFBD athlete 4431626

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
10
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
20
fumbles · FUM
0
fumbles · LOST
0
fumbles · REC
1
Charles Taplin · WR

CFBD athlete 5207598

receiving · LONG
38
receiving · REC
3
receiving · TD
1
receiving · YDS
65
receiving · YPR
21.7
Chrishon Mccray · WR

CFBD athlete 4869599

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
fumbles · FUM
2
fumbles · LOST
0
fumbles · REC
0
kickReturns · AVG
16.0
kickReturns · LONG
16
kickReturns · NO
1
kickReturns · TD
0
kickReturns · YDS
16
puntReturns · AVG
13.1
puntReturns · LONG
41
puntReturns · NO
10
puntReturns · TD
0
puntReturns · YDS
131
receiving · LONG
53
receiving · REC
29
receiving · TD
1
receiving · YDS
289
receiving · YPR
10.0
rushing · CAR
5
rushing · LONG
10
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
22
rushing · YPC
4.4
DeJae White · LB

CFBD athlete 5295655

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Derrick Simmons · DL

CFBD athlete 5214515

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
2
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
3
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
7
kickReturns · AVG
13.0
kickReturns · LONG
13
kickReturns · NO
1
kickReturns · TD
0
kickReturns · YDS
13
Deuce Edwards · S

CFBD athlete 5295654

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Devin Vaught · S

CFBD athlete 5153819

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
37
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1
defensive · TOT
54
fumbles · FUM
0
fumbles · LOST
0
fumbles · REC
1
interceptions · AVG
37.0
interceptions · INT
1
interceptions · TD
0
interceptions · YDS
37
DiMari Malone · LB

CFBD athlete 5167184

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
7
Dion Crawford · LB

CFBD athlete 4870681

defensive · PD
3
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
19
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
2.5
defensive · TOT
48
Eli Coenen · DL

CFBD athlete 5297778

defensive · PD
2
defensive · QB HUR
4
defensive · SACKS
3.5
defensive · SOLO
9
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
4.5
defensive · TOT
18
Evan Young · S

CFBD athlete 5257992

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
2
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
2
kickReturns · AVG
19.0
kickReturns · LONG
19
kickReturns · NO
1
kickReturns · TD
0
kickReturns · YDS
19
Fredrick Moore · WR

CFBD athlete 4905609

receiving · LONG
29
receiving · REC
20
receiving · TD
2
receiving · YDS
216
receiving · YPR
10.8
Isaac Smith · EDGE

CFBD athlete 4683286

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
2
defensive · SACKS
1
defensive · SOLO
4
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1
defensive · TOT
10
Jaxson Wilson · EDGE

CFBD athlete 5155166

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Jayden Savoury · TE

CFBD athlete 5214448

receiving · LONG
46
receiving · REC
29
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
271
receiving · YPR
9.3
Jaziun Patterson · RB

CFBD athlete 5081332

receiving · LONG
13
receiving · REC
7
receiving · TD
1
receiving · YDS
47
receiving · YPR
6.7
rushing · CAR
76
rushing · LONG
36
rushing · TD
5
rushing · YDS
327
rushing · YPC
4.3
Jeremiah Favorite · CB

CFBD athlete 5290768

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
9
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
11
Jonathan Granby · S

CFBD athlete 5310815

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Jordan Hall · LB

CFBD athlete 4870737

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
13
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
3.0
defensive · TOT
25
KJ Deriso · CB

CFBD athlete 5290284

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
2
KK Smith · WR

CFBD athlete 5150418

receiving · LONG
11
receiving · REC
2
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
21
receiving · YPR
10.5
Kai Rios · TE

CFBD athlete 5083652

receiving · LONG
16
receiving · REC
4
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
35
receiving · YPR
8.8
Kayd Coffman · QB

CFBD athlete 5266583

passing · ATT
10
passing · COMPLETIONS
4
passing · INT
1
passing · PCT
0.400
passing · TD
1
passing · YDS
42
passing · YPA
4.2
rushing · CAR
8
rushing · LONG
7
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
-16
rushing · YPC
-2.0
Keahnist Thompson · EDGE

CFBD athlete 4686331

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
3
defensive · SACKS
1.0
defensive · SOLO
4
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
2.5
defensive · TOT
18
Kenneth Williams · RB

CFBD athlete 5174993

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
2
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
2
fumbles · FUM
1
fumbles · LOST
1
fumbles · REC
0
kickReturns · AVG
21.3
kickReturns · LONG
47
kickReturns · NO
18
kickReturns · TD
0
kickReturns · YDS
383
receiving · LONG
14
receiving · REC
4
receiving · TD
1
receiving · YDS
15
receiving · YPR
3.8
rushing · CAR
19
rushing · LONG
13
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
64
rushing · YPC
3.4
Kenny Soares Jr. · EDGE

CFBD athlete 4832042

defensive · PD
2
defensive · QB HUR
6
defensive · SACKS
1
defensive · SOLO
12
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
3.0
defensive · TOT
26
interceptions · AVG
0.0
interceptions · INT
1
interceptions · TD
0
interceptions · YDS
0
Keshawn Williams · CB

CFBD athlete 5178577

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Khalil Majeed · S

CFBD athlete 4875976

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
3
Leo Hannan · QB

CFBD athlete 5164308

passing · ATT
15
passing · COMPLETIONS
9
passing · INT
1
passing · PCT
0.600
passing · TD
0
passing · YDS
67
passing · YPA
4.5
rushing · CAR
1
rushing · LONG
0
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
-7
rushing · YPC
-7.0
Liam Boyd · PK

CFBD athlete 5081440

kicking · FGA
14
kicking · FGM
11
kicking · LONG
51
kicking · PCT
0.786
kicking · PTS
49
kicking · XPA
16
kicking · XPM
16
Marvis Parrish · RB

CFBD athlete 5258024

receiving · LONG
11
receiving · REC
6
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
33
receiving · YPR
5.5
rushing · CAR
35
rushing · LONG
15
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
105
rushing · YPC
3.0
Michael Richard Jr. · S

CFBD athlete 4870991

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
14
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
3
defensive · TOT
21
Mikeshun Beeler · DL

CFBD athlete 5196925

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
3
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0.5
defensive · TOT
9
NiJhay Burt · CB

CFBD athlete 5083730

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
7
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
12
Nick Sharpe · OL

CFBD athlete 4612838

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Nikai Martinez · DB

CFBD athlete 4685460

defensive · PD
2
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
21
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1.0
defensive · TOT
38
fumbles · FUM
0
fumbles · LOST
0
fumbles · REC
1
Rhys Dakin · P

CFBD athlete 5192953

punting · In 20
8
punting · LONG
74
punting · NO
24
punting · TB
6
punting · YDS
1170
punting · YPP
48.8
Rodney Bullard Jr. · WR

CFBD athlete 5260691

fumbles · FUM
1
fumbles · LOST
0
fumbles · REC
0
receiving · LONG
53
receiving · REC
21
receiving · TD
1
receiving · YDS
253
receiving · YPR
12.0
rushing · CAR
2
rushing · LONG
11
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
4
rushing · YPC
2.0
Samson Gash · WR

CFBD athlete 5277125

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
receiving · LONG
6
receiving · REC
2
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
9
receiving · YPR
4.5
Tre Bell · CB

CFBD athlete 5086080

defensive · PD
2
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
1
defensive · SOLO
13
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
2.5
defensive · TOT
16
Trey Lisle · EDGE

CFBD athlete 5225744

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
5
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
9
Tyran Chappell · CB

CFBD athlete 5225872

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
3
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
8
Zion Gist · RB

CFBD athlete 5215030

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
rushing · CAR
3
rushing · LONG
8
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
5
rushing · YPC
1.7

Michigan

Window: 2026-10-31 (reported) · 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-08T00:30:00+00:00.

PlayerPassingRushing
Tommy Carr QB
3 games
43.7%
31 / 71 plays
50.0%
12 / 24 plays
Savion Hiter RB
3 games
—
0 / 0 plays
28.2%
11 / 39 plays
Jordan Marshall RB
3 games
—
0 / 0 plays
40.0%
12 / 30 plays
Bryce Underwood QB
2 games
27.3%
3 / 11 plays
0.0%
0 / 3 plays
Bryson Kuzdzal RB
3 games
—
0 / 0 plays
41.7%
5 / 12 plays
Traditional season production · 52 players

Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Aisea Moa · LB

CFBD athlete 4896290

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
8
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0.5
defensive · TOT
18
Andrew Marsh · WR

CFBD athlete 5141572

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
fumbles · FUM
2
fumbles · LOST
2
fumbles · REC
0
puntReturns · AVG
4.3
puntReturns · LONG
10
puntReturns · NO
7
puntReturns · TD
0
puntReturns · YDS
30
receiving · LONG
34
receiving · REC
39
receiving · TD
1
receiving · YDS
360
receiving · YPR
9.2
rushing · CAR
1
rushing · LONG
15
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
15
rushing · YPC
15.0
Benny Patterson · DE

CFBD athlete 5210185

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
0.5
defensive · SOLO
5
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
3.5
defensive · TOT
17
Bobby Kanka · DT

CFBD athlete 5141554

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
0.5
defensive · SOLO
3
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0.5
defensive · TOT
5
Brady Norton · OL

CFBD athlete 5152089

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Bryce Underwood · QB

CFBD athlete 5141741

fumbles · FUM
3
fumbles · LOST
2
fumbles · REC
0
passing · ATT
124
passing · COMPLETIONS
72
passing · INT
6
passing · PCT
0.581
passing · TD
5
passing · YDS
924
passing · YPA
7.5
rushing · CAR
61
rushing · LONG
38
rushing · TD
2
rushing · YDS
222
rushing · YPC
3.6
Bryson Kuzdzal · RB

CFBD athlete 5156348

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
kickReturns · AVG
21.3
kickReturns · LONG
36
kickReturns · NO
8
kickReturns · TD
0
kickReturns · YDS
170
receiving · LONG
3
receiving · REC
1
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
3
receiving · YPR
3.0
rushing · CAR
21
rushing · LONG
43
rushing · TD
1
rushing · YDS
117
rushing · YPC
5.6
Cameron Brandt · DE

CFBD athlete 4923036

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
2
Cameron Brown · P

CFBD athlete 5265648

punting · In 20
15
punting · LONG
52
punting · NO
37
punting · TB
2
punting · YDS
1568
punting · YPP
42.4
Carter Meadows · DE

CFBD athlete 5209412

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Channing Goodwin · WR

CFBD athlete 5079417

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
receiving · LONG
24
receiving · REC
2
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
32
receiving · YPR
16.0
Chase Taylor · LB

CFBD athlete 5167194

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
1.0
defensive · SOLO
9
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1.5
defensive · TOT
21
Chris Bracy · S

CFBD athlete 5078910

defensive · PD
2
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
2
defensive · SOLO
30
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
3
defensive · TOT
50
interceptions · AVG
0.0
interceptions · INT
1
interceptions · TD
0
interceptions · YDS
0
Deakon Tonielli · TE

CFBD athlete 4899352

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Deyvid Palepale · DT

CFBD athlete 5128064

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
2
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
3
Dominic Nichols · DE

CFBD athlete 5079636

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
3
defensive · SACKS
2.5
defensive · SOLO
6
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
5.0
defensive · TOT
16
Donovan Johnson · RB

CFBD athlete 5141530

rushing · CAR
1
rushing · LONG
0
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
-2
rushing · YPC
-2.0
Eli Owens · TE

CFBD athlete 5141588

receiving · LONG
5
receiving · REC
1
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
5
receiving · YPR
5.0
rushing · CAR
1
rushing · LONG
7
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
7
rushing · YPC
7.0
Enow Etta · DT

CFBD athlete 4870704

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
1
defensive · SOLO
12
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
4.0
defensive · TOT
22
fumbles · FUM
0
fumbles · LOST
0
fumbles · REC
1
Hogan Hansen · TE

CFBD athlete 5079494

receiving · LONG
22
receiving · REC
14
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
142
receiving · YPR
10.1
JJ Buchanan · WR

CFBD athlete 5214557

receiving · LONG
49
receiving · REC
38
receiving · TD
5
receiving · YDS
602
receiving · YPR
15.8
Jacob Oden · S

CFBD athlete 5079644

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
2
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1
defensive · TOT
2
Jalen Hoffman · TE

CFBD athlete 5156349

receiving · LONG
13
receiving · REC
7
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
56
receiving · YPR
8.0
John Henry Daley · DE

CFBD athlete 5160962

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
3.5
defensive · SOLO
8
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
6.5
defensive · TOT
20
Jonah Lea'Ea · DT

CFBD athlete 4891197

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
5
defensive · TD
1
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
12
interceptions · AVG
9.0
interceptions · INT
1
interceptions · TD
1
interceptions · YDS
9
Jordan Marshall · RB

CFBD athlete 5079574

receiving · LONG
16
receiving · REC
5
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
47
receiving · YPR
9.4
rushing · CAR
86
rushing · LONG
17
rushing · TD
5
rushing · YDS
319
rushing · YPC
3.7
Jordan Young · S

CFBD athlete 5141734

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
6
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
6
Jyaire Hill · CB

CFBD athlete 4918449

defensive · PD
2
defensive · QB HUR
2
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
24
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1
defensive · TOT
36
interceptions · AVG
24.0
interceptions · INT
1
interceptions · TD
0
interceptions · YDS
24
Kendrick Bell · WR

CFBD athlete 5108220

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
2
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
2
Lugard Edokpayi · DE

CFBD athlete 5168274

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
2
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
2
Markel Dabney · LB

CFBD athlete 5161819

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Mason Bonner · TE

CFBD athlete 5276673

receiving · LONG
27
receiving · REC
1
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
27
receiving · YPR
27.0
Mason Curtis · S

CFBD athlete 5079392

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
6
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
11
Max Alford · LB

CFBD athlete 4878106

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
2
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1
defensive · TOT
5
Nate Marshall · DE

CFBD athlete 5141534

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
2.0
defensive · SOLO
3
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
2.5
defensive · TOT
11
Nathaniel Owusu-Boateng · LB

CFBD athlete 5141620

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
4
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
7
Nathaniel Staehling · LB

CFBD athlete 5087172

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
21
defensive · TD
1
defensive · TFL
2.5
defensive · TOT
43
interceptions · AVG
79.0
interceptions · INT
1
interceptions · TD
1
interceptions · YDS
79
Nico Andrighetto · S

CFBD athlete 5086016

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
2
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
2
Rod Moore · S

CFBD athlete 4603101

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
13
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
25
interceptions · AVG
0.0
interceptions · INT
1
interceptions · TD
0
interceptions · YDS
0
Salesi Moa · WR

CFBD athlete 5159013

puntReturns · AVG
11.3
puntReturns · LONG
13
puntReturns · NO
3
puntReturns · TD
0
puntReturns · YDS
34
receiving · LONG
44
receiving · REC
3
receiving · TD
1
receiving · YDS
67
receiving · YPR
22.3
rushing · CAR
1
rushing · LONG
0
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
-1
rushing · YPC
-1.0
Savion Hiter · RB

CFBD athlete 5159046

fumbles · FUM
2
fumbles · LOST
1
fumbles · REC
0
receiving · LONG
19
receiving · REC
8
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
65
receiving · YPR
8.1
rushing · CAR
87
rushing · LONG
41
rushing · TD
2
rushing · YDS
314
rushing · YPC
3.6
Shamari Earls · CB

CFBD athlete 5141437

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
2
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
3
Smith Snowden · CB

CFBD athlete 4918445

defensive · PD
3
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
1
defensive · SOLO
16
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
2
defensive · TOT
24
interceptions · AVG
3.0
interceptions · INT
1
interceptions · TD
0
interceptions · YDS
3
Tariq Boney · DE

CFBD athlete 5162850

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
3
defensive · SACKS
2
defensive · SOLO
5
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
3.0
defensive · TOT
9
Ted Hammond · DT

CFBD athlete 5089325

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Tomas O'Meara · RB

CFBD athlete 5222269

rushing · CAR
1
rushing · LONG
5
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
5
rushing · YPC
5.0
Tommy Carr · QB

CFBD athlete 5269403

fumbles · FUM
1
fumbles · LOST
1
fumbles · REC
0
passing · ATT
68
passing · COMPLETIONS
49
passing · INT
1
passing · PCT
0.721
passing · TD
2
passing · YDS
503
passing · YPA
7.4
rushing · CAR
33
rushing · LONG
22
rushing · TD
3
rushing · YDS
114
rushing · YPC
3.5
Travis Johnson · WR

CFBD athlete 5209314

receiving · LONG
11
receiving · REC
2
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
21
receiving · YPR
10.5
rushing · CAR
1
rushing · LONG
2
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
2
rushing · YPC
2.0
Trey Butkowski · PK

CFBD athlete 5296243

kicking · FGA
10
kicking · FGM
6
kicking · LONG
49
kicking · PCT
0.600
kicking · PTS
38
kicking · XPA
20
kicking · XPM
20
Trey Pierce · DT

CFBD athlete 5156353

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
3
defensive · SACKS
0.5
defensive · SOLO
9
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1.5
defensive · TOT
16
Troy Bowles · LB

CFBD athlete 4870632

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
4
defensive · SACKS
0.5
defensive · SOLO
28
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
6.0
defensive · TOT
57
fumbles · FUM
0
fumbles · LOST
0
fumbles · REC
1
Zeke Berry · CB

CFBD athlete 4794102

defensive · PD
3
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
16
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1
defensive · TOT
23
interceptions · AVG
37.0
interceptions · INT
1
interceptions · TD
0
interceptions · YDS
37

Pregame weather

Decision-time forecast unavailable

No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.

Weather context

Weather record unavailable

Evidence cutoff: . This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.

No matching weather context has been published for this game.

Verified pregame availability
Unavailable
Measurement units
Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
Forecast issue time
Unavailable
Forecast valid time
Unavailable

Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.

Latest published card · In-season model

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured

Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.

Pick at comparison line

No pick

Comparison line · CFBD median

Michigan -13.5

DraftKings snapshot: Michigan -13.5

EPA-OLS forecast · margin in points

Michigan by 14.67

1.17 points toward Michigan versus the spread. gap below pick minimum The gap is not a cover probability.

Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast

Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately

Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward Michigan.

  • Net EPA rating difference: +10.67
  • Fitted offset: +5.20
  • Fitted home field: -1.20

Reconciles to 14.67 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.

Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.

Fit c4bb7cb5f7676bad6ca935c9ad6de236fbdb43b95c02a90800020598436e58af · inputs ec8c9ddf5d3eb2c1b0695102fd2db6d973f48a579361416aab574940672f2b8f · training 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51 · forecast 221870ec7435e9b10a1d7b8a21f387048ecd3832d97ebc5cf66212d9f5835e56 · through week 9.

What changed?

7 saved cards for this game

No change in spread, forecast or model gap.

The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.

Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.

Home team: Michigan · all values in points
Recorded valueEarlierLatestChange
Market spread-13.5-13.50.0
Model spread-14.67-14.670.0
Model gap+1.17+1.170.0

Negative spreads favor Michigan; positive model gap favors them too.

Capture times & sources

Earlier saved card

Generated

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Latest published card

Generated

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Model gap = market spread minus model spread.

This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.

Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.

Earlier saved card SHA-256
09ae362bba85693dce95202484e390b841fbdf36d21ea093fee4dd02276f20a9
Odds source SHA-256
1191efda55b02705391f90dc98ac55459f647f2300778ae80eca48d727f2d3cf
Latest published card SHA-256
1cb82609908ef20168d6821e20ce6db6dd11891a77105bc3ac9b18df06cadb8b
Odds source SHA-256
d0dba70812098c221b0c8c478c2238c95459bef99e39ca41d677e1f30597fc3c
View recorded snapshot data
Model context & pick method

Pick logic

Card generated . Captured prices are not live quotes.

Output:
Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9; 285 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Features:
EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: ec8c9ddf5d3eb2c1b0695102fd2db6d973f48a579361416aab574940672f2b8f. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Evaluation:
EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.

Training: 285 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.

Training-only RMSE: 15.77 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.

No pick · gap below pick minimum · gap +1.2 points, minimum 3.0

Win probabilities · separate sources

Michigan win probability by source

EPA-OLS calibrated win probability
Unavailable
Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
CFBD market-based probability
83%
Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:01:15 CST; CFBD source spread: Michigan -14
Stacked ensemble
76%
Stacked ensemble from the model pack
Explain this StackedEnsemble probability

Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.

Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward Michigan.

  • home adjusted success allowed: +9.80 (path difference 3.77)
  • home elo: +8.90 (path difference 8.47)
  • home adjusted epa allowed: -6.87 (path difference 5.71)
  • away elo: +6.49 (path difference 8.32)
  • home adjusted rushing epa allowed: +6.35 (path difference 7.20)
  • home adjusted passing epa allowed: +6.21 (path difference 4.32)
  • home talent: +5.70 (path difference 0.02)
  • away adjusted success: -5.68 (path difference 2.04)
  • away adjusted epa: +4.89 (path difference 5.71)
  • home adjusted epa: +4.86 (path difference 4.68)
  • home adjusted second level yards: +4.65 (path difference 0.92)
  • away adjusted rushing epa allowed: +4.40 (path difference 6.87)
  • home adjusted open field yards allowed: +4.28 (path difference 0.96)
  • home adjusted standard down success allowed: -3.92 (path difference 0.66)
  • home adjusted rushing epa: -2.77 (path difference 0.10)
  • home adjusted passing down success allowed: -2.72 (path difference 0.65)
  • home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +2.64 (path difference 1.10)
  • home adjusted open field yards: -2.39 (path difference 2.19)
  • away talent: -2.27 (path difference 0.50)
  • away adjusted pass explosiveness: +1.83 (path difference 1.80)
  • away adjusted epa allowed: -1.75 (path difference 0.42)
  • home adjusted success: +1.54 (path difference 0.18)
  • home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: -1.48 (path difference 0.84)
  • away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +1.37 (path difference 1.41)
  • away adjusted rushing epa: -1.29 (path difference 0.92)
  • away adjusted second level yards allowed: -1.16 (path difference 0.49)
  • week: -0.90 (path difference 0.85)
  • away adjusted second level yards: +0.90 (path difference 1.29)
  • home adjusted passing epa: -0.86 (path difference 1.16)
  • home adjusted second level yards allowed: +0.86 (path difference 0.00)
  • away adjusted explosiveness: -0.85 (path difference 1.33)
  • away adjusted line yards: -0.84 (path difference 1.57)
  • home adjusted line yards: -0.64 (path difference 0.74)
  • away adjusted open field yards allowed: -0.58 (path difference 1.94)
  • away adjusted open field yards: +0.55 (path difference 1.08)
  • away adjusted success allowed: +0.53 (path difference 0.01)
  • home adjusted standard down success: -0.51 (path difference 0.36)
  • away adjusted standard down success allowed: +0.44 (path difference 0.04)
  • away adjusted passing epa: +0.42 (path difference 1.22)
  • away adjusted passing down success allowed: -0.39 (path difference 0.17)
  • away adjusted passing down success: -0.31 (path difference 0.44)
  • home adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.29 (path difference 0.52)
  • home adjusted explosiveness allowed: -0.22 (path difference 0.64)
  • home adjusted pass explosiveness: -0.20 (path difference 0.97)
  • home conference: -0.19 (path difference 0.30)
  • away conference: +0.18 (path difference 0.40)
  • away adjusted line yards allowed: +0.18 (path difference 0.40)
  • home adjusted line yards allowed: +0.17 (path difference 0.71)
  • away adjusted rush explosiveness: +0.16 (path difference 0.22)
  • away adjusted standard down success: +0.13 (path difference 0.43)
  • home adjusted passing down success: +0.07 (path difference 0.26)
  • away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.06 (path difference 0.50)
  • away adjusted passing epa allowed: +0.06 (path difference 0.02)
  • home adjusted explosiveness: +0.06 (path difference 0.04)
  • away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: -0.00 (path difference 0.00)

Reconciles to 76.33 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.

Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.

Fit e302459ca56c4f194361bcc0ad952fb75b35a71b9ff0feaf8dede9dc1265ad90 · inputs d9ab30dbdd7dc2a3b91de36c0d56a943795d84e3eae9df37414c404a7c7c9c90 · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast 287f7f207db7844c2b1f79ca8ac454bb31802da5fc5e1c04e86339831d0bda60 · through week 9.

Output:
Home win probability (%), display only
Model:
StackedEnsemble
Training:
Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
Features:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Evaluation:
Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record

The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.

Rushing workload · last three team games

CFBD individually attributed rushing attempts, including attributed sacks. Captured before kickoff; descriptive context, separate from the forecast. Through 2026-11-06 UTC.

Michigan State

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 82 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

PlayerAttemptsYPCSacksAttributed shareCaptured season attempts / YPC
Jaziun Patterson

CFBD athlete 5081332

Week 6 vs Illinois: 17 attempts · 5.5 YPC · 47.1% success · 0.378 raw PPA.

Week 7 vs Northwestern: 15 attempts · 4.8 YPC · 53.3% success · 0.163 raw PPA.

325.2039.0%76 / 4.3
Kenneth Williams

CFBD athlete 5174993

Week 6 vs Illinois: 1 attempts · 2.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.584 raw PPA.

Week 8 vs UCLA: 17 attempts · 3.2 YPC · 29.4% success · -0.420 raw PPA.

183.1022.0%19 / 3.4
Alessio Milivojevic

CFBD athlete 5146670

Week 6 vs Illinois: 3 attempts · -1.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.198 raw PPA.

Week 7 vs Northwestern: 7 attempts · 2.4 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.689 raw PPA.

101.4312.2%40 / -0.3
Marvis Parrish

CFBD athlete 5258024

Week 6 vs Illinois: 1 attempts · 2.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.249 raw PPA.

Week 7 vs Northwestern: 3 attempts · 1.7 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.561 raw PPA.

Week 8 vs UCLA: 2 attempts · 4.5 YPC · 100.0% success · 0.464 raw PPA.

62.707.3%35 / 3.0
Kayd Coffman

CFBD athlete 5266583

Week 8 vs UCLA: 5 attempts · -3.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.726 raw PPA.

5-3.036.1%8 / -2.0

Michigan

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 114 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

PlayerAttemptsYPCSacksAttributed shareCaptured season attempts / YPC
Savion Hiter

CFBD athlete 5159046

Week 7 vs Penn State: 10 attempts · 7.7 YPC · 40.0% success · 0.045 raw PPA.

Week 8 vs Indiana: 10 attempts · 1.5 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.441 raw PPA.

Week 9 vs Rutgers: 19 attempts · 3.8 YPC · 36.8% success · -0.011 raw PPA.

394.2034.2%83 / 3.7
Jordan Marshall

CFBD athlete 5079574

Week 7 vs Penn State: 14 attempts · 3.5 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.272 raw PPA.

Week 8 vs Indiana: 12 attempts · 2.2 YPC · 41.7% success · -0.051 raw PPA.

Week 9 vs Rutgers: 4 attempts · -0.5 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.851 raw PPA.

302.4026.3%83 / 3.8
Tommy Carr

CFBD athlete 5269403

Week 7 vs Penn State: 4 attempts · 9.0 YPC · 66.7% success · 1.578 raw PPA.

Week 8 vs Indiana: 14 attempts · 0.7 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.124 raw PPA.

Week 9 vs Rutgers: 12 attempts · 4.5 YPC · 45.5% success · 0.668 raw PPA.

303.3626.3%32 / 3.7
Bryson Kuzdzal

CFBD athlete 5156348

Week 7 vs Penn State: 2 attempts · 19.0 YPC · 50.0% success · 1.922 raw PPA.

Week 8 vs Indiana: 4 attempts · 2.8 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.038 raw PPA.

Week 9 vs Rutgers: 6 attempts · 6.2 YPC · 33.3% success · 0.313 raw PPA.

127.2010.5%21 / 5.6
Bryce Underwood

CFBD athlete 5141741

Week 7 vs Penn State: 2 attempts · 2.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.318 raw PPA.

Week 8 vs Indiana: 1 attempts · -1.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.584 raw PPA.

31.002.6%60 / 3.6

Team-only and unresolved attempts are outside this player population. Game PPA and success rates retain provider denominators; they are not pooled across games. Missing appearances do not establish player availability. This three-game window is separate from the 100-play form window.

Team matchup statistics

Offense vs defense

2026 season to date · through Week 9, captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.

MeasureMichiganOffenseMichigan StateDefenseMichigan StateOffenseMichiganDefense
PPA/play
+0.08
32nd
+0.16
17th
-0.02
7th
-0.09
97th
Success rate
41.4%
39th
44.4%
18th
42.1%
43rd
33.4%
95th
Explosiveness
1.16
20th
1.18
71st
1.07
1st
1.16
76th
Standard-down PPA/play
-0.06
9th
+0.11
21st
-0.04
12th
-0.12
88th
Passing-down PPA/play
+0.42
89th
+0.28
23rd
+0.04
10th
-0.03
94th
Havoc allowed / created
16.0%
33rd
13.6%
19th
16.2%
32nd
16.3%
58th

Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.

CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR

Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions

Preview captured Nov 6, 2026, 6:16:43 AM CST · assembled Nov 6, 2026, 6:16:43 AM CST

Checking current kickoff time before showing captured pregame metrics.

2026 kicker PAAR

Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Nov 6, 2026, 6:15:45 AM CST.

  • Liam Boyd · Michigan State · PAAR 6.88 · 13 attempts
  • Trey Butkowski · Michigan · PAAR -3.79 · 10 attempts

Player recent form

CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.

Checking kickoff before showing recent player metrics.

Captured line movement

Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Nov 6, 2026, 14:39:19 CST · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.

Loading recorded line history… Open this game’s recorded history.

Line history & team context

Card snapshot lines

Michigan spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.

DraftKings

CFBD-reported opening: -16.5 · Snapshot spread: -13.5

First locally observed: -16.5 · captured Sep 14, 2026, 15:19:41 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: df966d27d63907ad2bd804eb0a1e3bd97821607bf88be6c42776c3be3f5aa41e

Total · CFBD-reported opening: 50.5 · Snapshot total: 39.5

Total · First locally observed: 50.5 · captured Sep 14, 2026, 15:19:41 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Total observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: df966d27d63907ad2bd804eb0a1e3bd97821607bf88be6c42776c3be3f5aa41e

Home moneyline · Snapshot: -575 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Home moneyline · First locally observed: -950 · captured Sep 14, 2026, 15:19:41 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Home moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: df966d27d63907ad2bd804eb0a1e3bd97821607bf88be6c42776c3be3f5aa41e

Away moneyline · Snapshot: +425 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Away moneyline · First locally observed: +625 · captured Sep 14, 2026, 15:19:41 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Away moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: df966d27d63907ad2bd804eb0a1e3bd97821607bf88be6c42776c3be3f5aa41e

Bovada

CFBD-reported opening: -13 · Snapshot spread: -13.5

First locally observed: -13 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…

Observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb

Total · CFBD-reported opening: 39.5 · Snapshot total: 40

Total · First locally observed: 39.5 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…

Total observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb

Home moneyline · Snapshot: -550 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Home moneyline · First locally observed: -550 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…

Home moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb

Away moneyline · Snapshot: +410 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Away moneyline · First locally observed: +410 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…

Away moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb

Michigan

Net adjusted EPA/play +0.1 · 9 rated weeks · Big Ten

75th FBS percentile

Michigan State

Net adjusted EPA/play -0.1 · 9 rated weeks · Big Ten

27th FBS percentile

Travel

Michigan State travels 49 miles (shorter than half of road trips, 2017–2025) · no time-zone change.

Distance uses the campuses because this schedule has no venue.

The 2017–2025 study found no overall ATS edge. Distance and time-zone groups cover near a coin flip. The 2,500+ mile group is above break-even but dominated by Hawai'i trips, so it is not a betting rule.

Series history

Michigan leads 75–38, 5 ties in 118 meetings since 1898.

  • 2025Michigan at Michigan State31–20 · Michigan
  • 2024Michigan State at Michigan17–24 · Michigan
  • 2023Michigan at Michigan State49–0 · Michigan
  • 2022Michigan State at Michigan7–29 · Michigan
  • 2021Michigan at Michigan State33–37 · Michigan State
  • 2020Michigan State at Michigan27–24 · Michigan State

CFBD matchup data Last 6 meetings shown. N marks a neutral site. History is not a projection input.

Team style charts

Model output, not betting advice. Historical hit rates are small-sample backtests; several edge buckets lose money at -110. Flat units only.