Week 10 · 2026

Iowa at Northwestern

Visual game report

Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.

Player production & success

CFBD regular season · through week 9 · observed 2026-11-06 UTC. Captured before kickoff.

Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.

Iowa

Window: 2026-10-31 (reported) · 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-10 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-08T00:30:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Hank Brown QB 2 games	42.6% 20 / 47 plays	60.0% 3 / 5 plays
Kamari Moulton RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	55.6% 20 / 36 plays
Jeremy Hecklinski QB 2 games	52.9% 18 / 34 plays	— 0 / 0 plays
Xavier Williams RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	38.5% 10 / 26 plays
L.J. Phillips Jr. RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	38.5% 10 / 26 plays
Braeden Jackson RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 4 plays
Tony Diaz WR 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	100.0% 4 / 4 plays
DJ Vonnahme TE 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	100.0% 2 / 2 plays

Traditional season production · 62 players

Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Addison Ostrenga · TE

CFBD athlete 4873456

receiving · LONG: 29
receiving · REC: 10
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 90
receiving · YPR: 9.0

Alex Mota · DB

CFBD athlete 4918097

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Anthony Hawkins · DB

CFBD athlete 5226950

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 8

Billy Weivoda · LB

CFBD athlete 5266928

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Boston Everitt · P

CFBD athlete 5369931

punting · In 20: 21
punting · LONG: 60
punting · NO: 36
punting · TB: 4
punting · YDS: 1573
punting · YPP: 43.7

Braeden Jackson · RB

CFBD athlete 5295539

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 0
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 39.0
kickReturns · LONG: 99
kickReturns · NO: 4
kickReturns · TD: 1
kickReturns · YDS: 156
receiving · LONG: 33
receiving · REC: 7
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 82
receiving · YPR: 11.7
rushing · CAR: 23
rushing · LONG: 62
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 178
rushing · YPC: 7.7

Brevin Doll · RB

CFBD athlete 5142261

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 0
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -3
rushing · YPC: -3.0

Brice Stevenson · DL

CFBD athlete 5157415

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 8

Bryce Hawthorne · DL

CFBD athlete 5154717

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 2.5
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 7.0
defensive · TOT: 28

Burke Gautcher · LB

CFBD athlete 5177825

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 4

Caden Buhr · PK

CFBD athlete 5295545

kicking · FGA: 15
kicking · FGM: 13
kicking · LONG: 54
kicking · PCT: 0.867
kicking · PTS: 62
kicking · XPA: 25
kicking · XPM: 23

Cam Buffington · LB

CFBD athlete 5079353

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 4
defensive · SACKS: 3
defensive · SOLO: 39
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 8.0
defensive · TOT: 70
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 4
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 4
rushing · YPC: 4.0

Carson Cooney · LB

CFBD athlete 5196816

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Chima Chineke · DE

CFBD athlete 5146846

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 3

Cody Haddad · DB

CFBD athlete 5195570

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 1

DJ Vonnahme · TE

CFBD athlete 5218931

receiving · LONG: 45
receiving · REC: 29
receiving · TD: 3
receiving · YDS: 304
receiving · YPR: 10.5
rushing · CAR: 3
rushing · LONG: 8
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 12
rushing · YPC: 4.0

Darion Jones · DB

CFBD athlete 5276973

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 10

David Fason · DL

CFBD athlete 5369930

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Dayton Howard · WR

CFBD athlete 5119233

receiving · LONG: 17
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 28
receiving · YPR: 14.0

Derek Weisskopf · LB

CFBD athlete 5079761

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 6

Deshaun Lee · DB

CFBD athlete 4831986

defensive · PD: 5
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 16
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 25
interceptions · AVG: 15.0
interceptions · INT: 3
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 45

Devan Kennedy · DL

CFBD athlete 5148880

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 4

Drew Campbell · DE

CFBD athlete 5139095

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1.5
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.0
defensive · TOT: 10

Eli Robbins · DB

CFBD athlete 5369925

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Emmanuel Olagbaju · DL

CFBD athlete 5155306

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Evan James · WR

CFBD athlete 5300482

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 0
fumbles · FUM: 2
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
puntReturns · AVG: 13.0
puntReturns · LONG: 77
puntReturns · NO: 21
puntReturns · TD: 1
puntReturns · YDS: 272
receiving · LONG: 18
receiving · REC: 7
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 58
receiving · YPR: 8.3
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 0
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 0
rushing · YPC: 0.0

Hank Brown · QB

CFBD athlete 5089314

fumbles · FUM: 2
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 169
passing · COMPLETIONS: 109
passing · INT: 3
passing · PCT: 0.645
passing · TD: 8
passing · YDS: 1190
passing · YPA: 7.0
rushing · CAR: 24
rushing · LONG: 15
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 33
rushing · YPC: 1.4

Ike Speltz · LS

CFBD athlete 5218934

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Iose Epenesa · DL

CFBD athlete 5141425

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 12

Jack Janda · DL

CFBD athlete 5162993

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Jack Laughlin · LB

CFBD athlete 5150659

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Jacob Wallace · DB

CFBD athlete 5178088

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 16
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 23
interceptions · AVG: 1.5
interceptions · INT: 2
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 3

Jarriett Buie · WR

CFBD athlete 5075920

receiving · LONG: 17
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 63
receiving · YPR: 12.6

Jayden Montgomery · LB

CFBD athlete 4868407

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 2.5
defensive · SOLO: 25
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 7.0
defensive · TOT: 46
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Jaylen Watson · DB

CFBD athlete 5126538

defensive · PD: 7
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 17
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 24

Jeremy Hecklinski · QB

CFBD athlete 5121030

passing · ATT: 67
passing · COMPLETIONS: 41
passing · INT: 2
passing · PCT: 0.612
passing · TD: 4
passing · YDS: 472
passing · YPA: 7.0
rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 16
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 5
rushing · YPC: 2.5

Jimmy Sullivan · QB

CFBD athlete 5192909

passing · ATT: 4
passing · COMPLETIONS: 2
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.500
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 13
passing · YPA: 3.3
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 15
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 15
rushing · YPC: 15.0

Joseph Anderson · DE

CFBD athlete 5146845

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 4.0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.0
defensive · TOT: 7

Julian Manson · LB

CFBD athlete 5245157

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 7

Kahmari Brown · DL

CFBD athlete 5224813

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 2.0
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 15

Kamari Moulton · RB

CFBD athlete 5093886

receiving · LONG: 9
receiving · REC: 9
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 31
receiving · YPR: 3.4
rushing · CAR: 86
rushing · LONG: 56
rushing · TD: 4
rushing · YDS: 541
rushing · YPC: 6.3

Kenneth Merrieweather · DL

CFBD athlete 4921115

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 11

L.J. Phillips Jr. · RB

CFBD athlete 5155048

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 8
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 16
receiving · YPR: 5.3
rushing · CAR: 34
rushing · LONG: 13
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 115
rushing · YPC: 3.4

Landyn Van Kekerix · LB

CFBD athlete 4912171

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 11
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 25

Luke Gaffney · DL

CFBD athlete 5081341

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 16

Marcello Vitti · DB

CFBD athlete 5209422

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Mason Woods · TE

CFBD athlete 5214549

receiving · LONG: 17
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 22
receiving · YPR: 11.0

Nathan Mcneil · RB

CFBD athlete 5246572

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 19
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 40
receiving · YPR: 8.0
rushing · CAR: 21
rushing · LONG: 25
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 128
rushing · YPC: 6.1

Nolan DeLong · LB

CFBD athlete 5150656

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 6

O'Lontae Dean · RB

CFBD athlete 5198313

rushing · CAR: 11
rushing · LONG: 10
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 43
rushing · YPC: 3.9

Preston Ries · LB

CFBD athlete 5079690

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 2.5
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 9

Rashad Godfrey Jr. · DB

CFBD athlete 5149911

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1
interceptions · AVG: 2.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 2

Reece Vander Zee · WR

CFBD athlete 5138293

puntReturns · AVG: 9.8
puntReturns · LONG: 15
puntReturns · NO: 4
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 39
receiving · LONG: 37
receiving · REC: 25
receiving · TD: 4
receiving · YDS: 367
receiving · YPR: 14.7

Thomas Meyer · TE

CFBD athlete 5142597

receiving · LONG: 9
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 21
receiving · YPR: 4.2

Tony Diaz · WR

CFBD athlete 5300856

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 57
receiving · REC: 33
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 461
receiving · YPR: 14.0
rushing · CAR: 7
rushing · LONG: 20
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 65
rushing · YPC: 9.3

Ty Hudkins · DB

CFBD athlete 5147228

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 8
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Tyler Brown · DB

CFBD athlete 5193099

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 11

Will Hubert · DL

CFBD athlete 5081343

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 14

Xavier Styles · DB

CFBD athlete 5227168

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 18

Xavier Williams · RB

CFBD athlete 5142226

fumbles · FUM: 2
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 30.0
kickReturns · LONG: 30
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 30
receiving · LONG: 23
receiving · REC: 6
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 51
receiving · YPR: 8.5
rushing · CAR: 45
rushing · LONG: 48
rushing · TD: 3
rushing · YDS: 265
rushing · YPC: 5.9

Zach Lutmer · DB

CFBD athlete 5067875

defensive · PD: 4
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 23
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 48

Zach Ortwerth · TE

CFBD athlete 4950379

receiving · LONG: 15
receiving · REC: 4
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 41
receiving · YPR: 10.3

Northwestern

Window: 2026-10-31 (reported) · 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-08T00:30:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Aidan Chiles QB 3 games	48.0% 48 / 100 plays	75.8% 25 / 33 plays
Caleb Komolafe RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	43.2% 19 / 44 plays
Joseph Himon II RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	20.0% 4 / 20 plays
Gavin Sawchuk RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	22.2% 2 / 9 plays
Alex Honig TE 1 games	0.0% 0 / 1 plays	— 0 / 0 plays
Sean Morris II RB 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	100.0% 1 / 1 plays

Traditional season production · 62 players

Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Aidan Chiles · QB

CFBD athlete 5075805

fumbles · FUM: 5
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 202
passing · COMPLETIONS: 139
passing · INT: 1
passing · PCT: 0.688
passing · TD: 13
passing · YDS: 1898
passing · YPA: 9.4
rushing · CAR: 86
rushing · LONG: 37
rushing · TD: 10
rushing · YDS: 274
rushing · YPC: 3.2

Alex Honig · TE

CFBD athlete 4569262

passing · ATT: 1
passing · COMPLETIONS: 0
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.000
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 0
passing · YPA: 0.0
receiving · LONG: 32
receiving · REC: 15
receiving · TD: 3
receiving · YDS: 229
receiving · YPR: 15.3

Alijah Jones · DB

CFBD athlete 5222253

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 15

Amare Jordan · LB

CFBD athlete 5326896

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Braden Turner · DB

CFBD athlete 4912163

defensive · PD: 5
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 26
interceptions · AVG: 22.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 22

Braydon Brus · LB

CFBD athlete 4868925

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 5
defensive · SACKS: 4
defensive · SOLO: 35
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 12.5
defensive · TOT: 68
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Brendan Flakes · DL

CFBD athlete 4836465

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 13

Brenden Deasfernandes · DB

CFBD athlete 4565357

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 14

Caden O'Rourke · DL

CFBD athlete 5196380

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 9

Caleb Komolafe · RB

CFBD athlete 5078244

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 25
receiving · REC: 15
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 162
receiving · YPR: 10.8
rushing · CAR: 104
rushing · LONG: 56
rushing · TD: 5
rushing · YDS: 618
rushing · YPC: 5.9

Callen Campbell · DL

CFBD athlete 5145121

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Carson Grove · WR

CFBD athlete 5155867

puntReturns · AVG: 4.0
puntReturns · LONG: 4
puntReturns · NO: 1
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 4

Damon Walters · DB

CFBD athlete 4899672

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 17
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 37
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1
interceptions · AVG: 4.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 4

Daniel Anderson · RB

CFBD athlete 5149001

rushing · CAR: 6
rushing · LONG: 15
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 18
rushing · YPC: 3.0

Dominic Kirks · DL

CFBD athlete 5145736

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 9

Drew Wagner · WR

CFBD athlete 5222752

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
puntReturns · AVG: 5.8
puntReturns · LONG: 26
puntReturns · NO: 6
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 35
receiving · LONG: 32
receiving · REC: 30
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 261
receiving · YPR: 8.7
rushing · CAR: 5
rushing · LONG: 21
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 43
rushing · YPC: 8.6

Dylan Roberts · DL

CFBD athlete 4921449

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 6

Frank Covey IV · WR

CFBD athlete 4917942

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Gavin Sawchuk · RB

CFBD athlete 4685545

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
fumbles · FUM: 2
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 19.5
kickReturns · LONG: 24
kickReturns · NO: 2
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 39
receiving · LONG: 6
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 3
receiving · YPR: 1.5
rushing · CAR: 47
rushing · LONG: 21
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 225
rushing · YPC: 4.8

Griffin Wilde · WR

CFBD athlete 5154734

receiving · LONG: 71
receiving · REC: 44
receiving · TD: 5
receiving · YDS: 761
receiving · YPR: 17.3

Hayden Eligon Ii · WR

CFBD athlete 5084772

receiving · LONG: 23
receiving · REC: 6
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 79
receiving · YPR: 13.2

Henry Helms · PK

CFBD athlete 5158281

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

J.J. Lewis · DB

CFBD athlete 5158275

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 0

Jack Oyola · DB

CFBD athlete 5081563

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Jack Sadowsky · LB

CFBD athlete 4921317

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 7

Jack Trautmann · DL

CFBD athlete 5222753

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 4

Jackson Carsello · OL

CFBD athlete 4684277

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Jackson Kleather · PK

CFBD athlete 5122027

kicking · FGA: 19
kicking · FGM: 15
kicking · LONG: 52
kicking · PCT: 0.789
kicking · PTS: 75
kicking · XPA: 30
kicking · XPM: 30

Jalen Lewis · DB

CFBD athlete 4921437

interceptions · AVG: 5.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 5

Jamaal Johnson · DL

CFBD athlete 4738818

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 5
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 15
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Jon Jon Stevens · DB

CFBD athlete 5196355

defensive · PD: 4
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 21
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 33

Joseph Himon II · RB

CFBD athlete 4816307

kickReturns · AVG: 21.4
kickReturns · LONG: 37
kickReturns · NO: 10
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 214
receiving · LONG: 25
receiving · REC: 6
receiving · TD: 3
receiving · YDS: 74
receiving · YPR: 12.3
rushing · CAR: 43
rushing · LONG: 80
rushing · TD: 3
rushing · YDS: 384
rushing · YPC: 8.9

Josh Fussell · DB

CFBD athlete 4923270

defensive · PD: 5
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 10

Kobie McKinzie · LB

CFBD athlete 4685448

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 24
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.5
defensive · TOT: 55

Luke Dehnicke · TE

CFBD athlete 5328488

receiving · LONG: 41
receiving · REC: 14
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 251
receiving · YPR: 17.9

Marcus Romain · RB

CFBD athlete 5199860

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
rushing · CAR: 5
rushing · LONG: 4
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 7
rushing · YPC: 1.4

Marquet Dorsey Jr. · DB

CFBD athlete 5166800

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Mason Green · DL

CFBD athlete 5158278

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 0

Mason Mayne · DL

CFBD athlete 5211986

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 5

Matthew Smith · LB

CFBD athlete 5147071

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 10

Max Mohring · LB

CFBD athlete 5291097

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Michael Kilbane · DL

CFBD athlete 4924145

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 2.5
defensive · SOLO: 16
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 6.5
defensive · TOT: 27
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Miguel Jackson · DL

CFBD athlete 4685233

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Miles Crutchley · LB

CFBD athlete 5081565

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Montae Pate · DB

CFBD athlete 5085616

defensive · PD: 4
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 26
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 38
interceptions · AVG: 3.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 3

Nate Dawson · DB

CFBD athlete 5279241

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 0

Nicco Marchiol · QB

CFBD athlete 4685459

passing · ATT: 1
passing · COMPLETIONS: 0
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.000
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 0
passing · YPA: 0.0
rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 19
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 22
rushing · YPC: 11.0

Nigel Glover · LB

CFBD athlete 4921508

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Nikola Dugandzic · P

CFBD athlete 5214596

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
punting · In 20: 8
punting · LONG: 72
punting · NO: 25
punting · TB: 1
punting · YDS: 967
punting · YPP: 38.7

Ore Adeyi · DB

CFBD athlete 4699437

defensive · PD: 7
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 22
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 34
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Payton Roth · LB

CFBD athlete 5158276

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 7

Ricky Ahumaraeze · WR

CFBD athlete 4921291

receiving · LONG: 24
receiving · REC: 6
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 74
receiving · YPR: 12.3

Robby Preckel · RB

CFBD athlete 5216569

receiving · LONG: 4
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 4
receiving · YPR: 4.0
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 1
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 1
rushing · YPC: 1.0

Robert Fitzgerald · DB

CFBD athlete 4833594

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 20
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 45
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1
interceptions · AVG: 7.5
interceptions · INT: 2
interceptions · TD: 1
interceptions · YDS: 15

Ryan Boe · QB

CFBD athlete 5193492

rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 6
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 6
rushing · YPC: 6.0

Sean Martin · DB

CFBD athlete 5138636

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Sean Morris II · RB

CFBD athlete 5161830

rushing · CAR: 3
rushing · LONG: 11
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 21
rushing · YPC: 7.0

Tanner Jumpp · DL

CFBD athlete 5222254

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 1

Timi Oke · DB

CFBD athlete 5188305

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Tito Williams · DB

CFBD athlete 5147242

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Troy Regovich · DL

CFBD athlete 5156387

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 1

Tyler Gant · DL

CFBD athlete 4918416

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 16

Pregame weather

Decision-time forecast unavailable

No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.

Weather context

Weather record unavailable

Evidence cutoff: 2026-10-26T04:30:00+00:00. This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.

No matching weather context has been published for this game.

Verified pregame availability: Unavailable
Measurement units: Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
Forecast issue time: Unavailable
Forecast valid time: Unavailable

Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.

Latest published card · In-season model

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.

Pick at comparison line

Northwestern -2.5

C1 in-sample cover rate 61% against the spread over 106 games (2017–2025) · rule chosen on these games · historical reference, not a cover probability.

CFBD median · DraftKings quote matches

EPA-OLS forecast · margin in points

Northwestern by 14.59

12.09 points toward Northwestern versus the spread. The gap is not a cover probability.

Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast

Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately

Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward Northwestern.

Net EPA rating difference: +10.59
Fitted offset: +5.20
Fitted home field: -1.20

Reconciles to 14.59 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.

Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.

Fit c4bb7cb5f7676bad6ca935c9ad6de236fbdb43b95c02a90800020598436e58af · inputs febcde4eec1439565b9f26f37e67f7f08d87acba25d9c34ce1282449d5de9045 · training 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51 · forecast e3eda63a0c9ad134352a2eb3eb71a5487d73f02dd73c36ad56c94f6f45033b03 · through week 9.

What changed?

7 saved cards for this game

Earlier saved card

Market spread changed. Model projection held. Home model gap moved -0.25 points.

The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.

Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.

Home team: Northwestern · all values in points
Recorded value	Earlier	Latest	Change
Market spread	-2.25	-2.5	-0.25
Model spread	-14.59	-14.59	0.0
Model gap	+12.34	+12.09	-0.25

Negative spreads favor Northwestern; positive model gap favors them too.

Capture times & sources

Earlier saved card

Generated Nov 5, 2026, 06:12:24 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Nov 5, 2026, 06:02:35 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Latest published card

Generated Nov 6, 2026, 06:12:29 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Model gap = market spread minus model spread.

This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.

Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.

Earlier saved card SHA-256: 09ae362bba85693dce95202484e390b841fbdf36d21ea093fee4dd02276f20a9
Odds source SHA-256: 1191efda55b02705391f90dc98ac55459f647f2300778ae80eca48d727f2d3cf
Latest published card SHA-256: 1cb82609908ef20168d6821e20ce6db6dd11891a77105bc3ac9b18df06cadb8b
Odds source SHA-256: d0dba70812098c221b0c8c478c2238c95459bef99e39ca41d677e1f30597fc3c

View recorded snapshot data

Model context & pick method

Card generated Nov 6, 2026, 06:12:29 CST. Captured prices are not live quotes.

Output:: Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
Model:: EPA-OLS
Training:: 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9; 285 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Features:: EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: febcde4eec1439565b9f26f37e67f7f08d87acba25d9c34ce1282449d5de9045. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Evaluation:: EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.

Training: 285 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.

Training-only RMSE: 15.77 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.

Margins are not projected scores.

Pick logic

Northwestern -2.5

Model gap +12.1 points

C1 rule: 14+ point gaps in weeks 6–9, 12–14 in weeks 10–16. Positive gaps favor Northwestern.

Win probabilities · separate sources

Northwestern win probability by source

EPA-OLS calibrated win probability: Unavailable; Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
CFBD market-based probability: 57%; Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:01:15 CST; CFBD source spread: Northwestern -2.5
Stacked ensemble: 50%; Stacked ensemble from the model pack

Explain this StackedEnsemble probability

Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.

Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward Northwestern.

home elo: +15.00 (path difference 0.27)
home adjusted success: +14.18 (path difference 1.52)
away elo: -10.75 (path difference 3.75)
away adjusted rushing epa allowed: +10.65 (path difference 4.88)
away adjusted second level yards allowed: -10.38 (path difference 4.34)
home adjusted passing epa: +7.01 (path difference 1.87)
away adjusted success allowed: -6.08 (path difference 0.74)
away adjusted epa allowed: -6.00 (path difference 0.57)
home adjusted epa allowed: -5.94 (path difference 3.54)
home adjusted passing epa allowed: +5.34 (path difference 0.84)
away adjusted epa: +4.97 (path difference 0.91)
home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +4.93 (path difference 0.12)
away adjusted success: -4.61 (path difference 1.14)
home adjusted passing down success allowed: -3.93 (path difference 0.07)
away talent: -3.83 (path difference 1.14)
home adjusted rushing epa allowed: +3.43 (path difference 0.02)
away adjusted passing down success: -3.35 (path difference 2.44)
home adjusted epa: -3.06 (path difference 3.77)
away adjusted passing down success allowed: -2.87 (path difference 0.57)
away adjusted rushing epa: -2.64 (path difference 0.95)
home adjusted explosiveness: +2.51 (path difference 0.62)
away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +2.50 (path difference 0.48)
away adjusted open field yards allowed: -2.15 (path difference 1.93)
home talent: +2.02 (path difference 0.93)
away adjusted standard down success allowed: -1.71 (path difference 0.21)
home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +1.62 (path difference 0.05)
away adjusted standard down success: +1.62 (path difference 0.17)
away adjusted passing epa allowed: -1.48 (path difference 1.05)
week: -1.41 (path difference 0.17)
home adjusted standard down success allowed: +1.24 (path difference 0.58)
away adjusted pass explosiveness: +1.23 (path difference 0.38)
away adjusted line yards allowed: +1.04 (path difference 0.39)
away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.88 (path difference 0.91)
home adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.83 (path difference 0.80)
home adjusted passing down success: -0.79 (path difference 0.51)
home adjusted rushing epa: +0.76 (path difference 0.06)
away adjusted second level yards: +0.69 (path difference 0.85)
home adjusted standard down success: +0.50 (path difference 1.95)
away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +0.46 (path difference 0.42)
home adjusted line yards allowed: +0.39 (path difference 0.02)
home adjusted open field yards allowed: -0.35 (path difference 0.51)
away adjusted open field yards: +0.27 (path difference 0.06)
away adjusted explosiveness: +0.26 (path difference 0.36)
away adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.21 (path difference 0.92)
away conference: +0.17 (path difference 0.42)
home adjusted rush explosiveness: +0.17 (path difference 0.95)
home adjusted second level yards: -0.16 (path difference 0.00)
home adjusted open field yards: +0.14 (path difference 0.87)
home adjusted success allowed: +0.13 (path difference 0.37)
away adjusted line yards: +0.10 (path difference 1.90)
home adjusted line yards: -0.06 (path difference 0.00)
home adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.05 (path difference 0.00)
home conference: -0.04 (path difference 0.00)
home adjusted second level yards allowed: +0.03 (path difference 0.00)
away adjusted passing epa: +0.01 (path difference 0.00)

Reconciles to 50.06 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.

Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.

Fit e302459ca56c4f194361bcc0ad952fb75b35a71b9ff0feaf8dede9dc1265ad90 · inputs 96cb3ffccdde8e043f7912215412a959532d36232fc25109b3dc01a6d1a5a0ba · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast a62b603bb2d9c93c83939472782c587829036355b89010f84439a3e7eeab1c94 · through week 9.

Output:: Home win probability (%), display only
Model:: StackedEnsemble
Training:: Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
Features:: Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Evaluation:: Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record

The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.

Rushing workload · last three team games

CFBD individually attributed rushing attempts, including attributed sacks. Captured before kickoff; descriptive context, separate from the forecast. Through 2026-11-06 UTC.

Iowa

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 107 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Kamari Moulton CFBD athlete 5093886 Week 6 vs Washington: 26 attempts · 8.0 YPC · 65.4% success · 0.560 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Minnesota: 10 attempts · 2.2 YPC · 30.0% success · -0.343 raw PPA.	36	6.4	0	33.6%	85 / 6.1
Xavier Williams CFBD athlete 5142226 Week 6 vs Washington: 1 attempts · 3.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.238 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Minnesota: 5 attempts · 3.4 YPC · 20.0% success · -0.127 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Wisconsin: 20 attempts · 3.9 YPC · 45.0% success · -0.374 raw PPA.	26	3.8	0	24.3%	45 / 5.9
L.J. Phillips Jr. CFBD athlete 5155048 Week 6 vs Washington: 10 attempts · 4.2 YPC · 40.0% success · -0.293 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Minnesota: 7 attempts · 3.6 YPC · 42.9% success · -0.283 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Wisconsin: 9 attempts · 3.0 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.282 raw PPA.	26	3.6	0	24.3%	34 / 3.4
Hank Brown CFBD athlete 5089314 Week 8 vs Minnesota: 3 attempts · 2.0 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.163 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Wisconsin: 4 attempts · 2.8 YPC · 66.7% success · 0.699 raw PPA.	7	2.4	2	6.5%	24 / 1.4
Braeden Jackson CFBD athlete 5295539 Week 8 vs Minnesota: 2 attempts · 3.5 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.274 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Wisconsin: 2 attempts · 0.5 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.591 raw PPA.	4	2.0	0	3.7%	21 / 7.1

Northwestern

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 116 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Caleb Komolafe CFBD athlete 5078244 Week 7 vs Michigan State: 15 attempts · 4.5 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.011 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Rutgers: 13 attempts · 11.5 YPC · 53.8% success · 0.575 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Oregon: 16 attempts · 4.2 YPC · 43.8% success · -0.074 raw PPA.	44	6.5	0	37.9%	103 / 5.9
Aidan Chiles CFBD athlete 5075805 Week 7 vs Michigan State: 16 attempts · 1.6 YPC · 63.6% success · 0.635 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Rutgers: 12 attempts · 6.9 YPC · 81.8% success · 1.035 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Oregon: 14 attempts · 6.6 YPC · 81.8% success · 1.092 raw PPA.	42	4.8	9	36.2%	80 / 3.4
Joseph Himon II CFBD athlete 4816307 Week 7 vs Michigan State: 7 attempts · 3.9 YPC · 28.6% success · -0.288 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Rutgers: 8 attempts · 3.1 YPC · 25.0% success · -0.392 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Oregon: 5 attempts · 2.6 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.336 raw PPA.	20	3.3	0	17.2%	42 / 8.7
Gavin Sawchuk CFBD athlete 4685545 Week 7 vs Michigan State: 4 attempts · 3.8 YPC · 25.0% success · -0.172 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Rutgers: 4 attempts · 3.3 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.288 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Oregon: 1 attempts · 2.0 YPC · 100.0% success · -0.275 raw PPA.	9	3.3	0	7.8%	45 / 4.9
Sean Morris II CFBD athlete 5161830 Week 8 vs Rutgers: 1 attempts · 11.0 YPC · 100.0% success · 2.009 raw PPA.	1	11.0	0	0.9%	3 / 7.0

Team-only and unresolved attempts are outside this player population. Game PPA and success rates retain provider denominators; they are not pooled across games. Missing appearances do not establish player availability. This three-game window is separate from the 100-play form window.

Team matchup statistics

Offense vs defense

2026 season to date · through Week 9, captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.

Measure	NorthwesternOffense	IowaDefense	IowaOffense	NorthwesternDefense
PPA/play	+0.31 96th	-0.04 88th	+0.10 39th	+0.04 64th
Success rate	48.9% 87th	33.0% 96th	44.0% 61st	41.9% 39th
Explosiveness	1.33 85th	1.14 84th	1.20 36th	1.19 68th
Standard-down PPA/play	+0.20 88th	-0.11 87th	+0.12 65th	+0.03 50th
Passing-down PPA/play	+0.57 99th	+0.08 77th	+0.06 14th	+0.07 78th
Havoc allowed / created	14.9% 48th	17.1% 69th	12.8% 78th	17.0% 68th

Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.

CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR

Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions

Preview captured Nov 6, 2026, 6:16:47 AM CST · assembled Nov 6, 2026, 6:16:47 AM CST

Checking current kickoff time before showing captured pregame metrics.

2026 kicker PAAR

Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Nov 6, 2026, 6:15:45 AM CST.

Jackson Kleather · Northwestern · PAAR 6.08 · 19 attempts
Caden Buhr · Iowa · PAAR 8.71 · 15 attempts

Player recent form

CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.

Checking kickoff before showing recent player metrics.

Captured line movement

Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Nov 6, 2026, 14:39:19 CST · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.

Loading recorded line history… Open this game’s recorded history.

Line history & team context

Card snapshot lines

Northwestern spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.

DraftKings

CFBD-reported opening: -2.5 · Snapshot spread: -2.5

First locally observed: -2.5 · captured Oct 29, 2026, 06:02:06 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: c3afde8edfd04c38da42b18ab61b68542f93145177f25e3612c5230361aae058

Total · CFBD-reported opening: 42.5 · Snapshot total: 45.5

Total · First locally observed: 42.5 · captured Oct 29, 2026, 06:02:06 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Total observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: c3afde8edfd04c38da42b18ab61b68542f93145177f25e3612c5230361aae058

Home moneyline · Snapshot: -135 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Home moneyline · First locally observed: -130 · captured Oct 29, 2026, 06:02:06 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Home moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: c3afde8edfd04c38da42b18ab61b68542f93145177f25e3612c5230361aae058

Away moneyline · Snapshot: +114 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Away moneyline · First locally observed: +110 · captured Oct 29, 2026, 06:02:06 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Away moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: c3afde8edfd04c38da42b18ab61b68542f93145177f25e3612c5230361aae058

Bovada

CFBD-reported opening: -2.5 · Snapshot spread: -2.5

First locally observed: -2.5 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…

Observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb

Total · CFBD-reported opening: 44.5 · Snapshot total: 45

Total · First locally observed: 44.5 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…

Total observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb

Home moneyline · Snapshot: -130 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Home moneyline · First locally observed: -130 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…

Home moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb

Away moneyline · Snapshot: +110 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Away moneyline · First locally observed: +110 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…

Away moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb

Northwestern

Net adjusted EPA/play +0.2 · 7 rated weeks · Big Ten

92nd FBS percentile

Iowa

Net adjusted EPA/play +0.0 · 9 rated weeks · Big Ten

57th FBS percentile

Series history

Iowa leads 55–28, 3 ties in 86 meetings since 1897.

2024Northwestern at Iowa14–40 · Iowa
2023 · NIowa at Northwestern10–7 · Iowa
2022Northwestern at Iowa13–33 · Iowa
2021Iowa at Northwestern17–12 · Iowa
2020Northwestern at Iowa21–20 · Northwestern
2019Iowa at Northwestern20–0 · Iowa

CFBD matchup data Last 6 meetings shown. N marks a neutral site. History is not a projection input.

Team style charts

Model output, not betting advice. Historical hit rates are small-sample backtests; several edge buckets lose money at -110. Flat units only.