Week 10 · 2026
Penn State at Washington
Visual game report
Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.
Player production & success
CFBD regular season · through week 9 · observed 2026-11-06 UTC. Captured before kickoff.
Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.
Penn State
Window: 2026-10-31 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported) · 2026-10-10 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-07T20:30:00+00:00.
| Player | Passing | Rushing |
|---|---|---|
| Rocco Becht QB 3 games | 45.3% 48 / 106 plays | 40.9% 9 / 22 plays |
| Carson Hansen RB 3 games | 0.0% 0 / 1 plays | 42.2% 19 / 45 plays |
| Cam Wallace RB 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 36.4% 8 / 22 plays |
| James Peoples RB 2 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 25.0% 3 / 12 plays |
| Quinton Martin Jr. RB 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 0.0% 0 / 2 plays |
| Audavion Collins CB 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 100.0% 1 / 1 plays |
| Nathan Tiyce P 1 games | 100.0% 1 / 1 plays | — 0 / 0 plays |
Traditional season production · 61 players
Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.
Alex Manske · QB
CFBD athlete 5164316
- passing · ATT
- 14
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 9
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 0.643
- passing · TD
- 0
- passing · YDS
- 102
- passing · YPA
- 7.3
- rushing · CAR
- 3
- rushing · LONG
- 6
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 14
- rushing · YPC
- 4.7
Alex Tatsch · LB
CFBD athlete 5195702
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 5
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 11
Alexander McPherson · DE
CFBD athlete 5215273
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 4
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 5
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 14
Alijah Carnell · DT
CFBD athlete 5167309
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Amar'e Glover · RB
CFBD athlete 5289329
- rushing · CAR
- 2
- rushing · LONG
- 2
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 2
- rushing · YPC
- 1.0
Amarion Jackson · WR
CFBD athlete 5273821
- receiving · LONG
- 22
- receiving · REC
- 3
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 41
- receiving · YPR
- 13.7
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 12
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 12
- rushing · YPC
- 12.0
Andrew Rappleyea · TE
CFBD athlete 4899484
- receiving · LONG
- 20
- receiving · REC
- 28
- receiving · TD
- 3
- receiving · YDS
- 225
- receiving · YPR
- 8.0
Anthony Donkoh · OL
CFBD athlete 4916884
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Armstrong Nnodim · DT
CFBD athlete 5125968
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.5
- defensive · TOT
- 11
Audavion Collins · CB
CFBD athlete 4837460
- defensive · PD
- 8
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 11
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 17
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 11
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 11
- rushing · YPC
- 11.0
Benjamin Brahmer · TE
CFBD athlete 4870608
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- receiving · LONG
- 33
- receiving · REC
- 25
- receiving · TD
- 3
- receiving · YDS
- 264
- receiving · YPR
- 10.6
Blaise Sokach-Minnick · LS
CFBD athlete 5092608
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Bobby Mears · DE
CFBD athlete 5160165
- receiving · LONG
- 12
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 12
- receiving · YPR
- 12.0
Brett Eskildsen · WR
CFBD athlete 5148535
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- receiving · LONG
- 25
- receiving · REC
- 23
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 244
- receiving · YPR
- 10.6
Bryson Williams · S
CFBD athlete 5290778
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
- interceptions · AVG
- 0.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 0
Cael Brezina · LB
CFBD athlete 5146686
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 12
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 24
Caleb Bacon · LB
CFBD athlete 5081877
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 3
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 16
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 5
- defensive · TOT
- 22
Cam Smith · LB
CFBD athlete 5142598
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Cam Wallace · RB
CFBD athlete 5121541
- receiving · LONG
- 7
- receiving · REC
- 4
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 16
- receiving · YPR
- 4.0
- rushing · CAR
- 44
- rushing · LONG
- 59
- rushing · TD
- 3
- rushing · YDS
- 260
- rushing · YPC
- 5.9
Carson Hansen · RB
CFBD athlete 5077502
- receiving · LONG
- 10
- receiving · REC
- 6
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 45
- receiving · YPR
- 7.5
- rushing · CAR
- 89
- rushing · LONG
- 42
- rushing · TD
- 5
- rushing · YDS
- 374
- rushing · YPC
- 4.2
Chase Sowell · WR
CFBD athlete 4912067
- receiving · LONG
- 47
- receiving · REC
- 34
- receiving · TD
- 3
- receiving · YDS
- 510
- receiving · YPR
- 15.0
Connor Barry · QB
CFBD athlete 5082407
- passing · ATT
- 2
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 2
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 1.000
- passing · TD
- 0
- passing · YDS
- 8
- passing · YPA
- 4.0
- rushing · CAR
- 3
- rushing · LONG
- 4
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 2
- rushing · YPC
- 0.7
Dallas Vakalahi · DT
CFBD athlete 5220003
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 9
Daryus Dixson · CB
CFBD athlete 5141411
- defensive · PD
- 3
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 12
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 16
- interceptions · AVG
- 24.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 24
De'Andre Cook · DT
CFBD athlete 5146889
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Donte Nastasi · CB
CFBD athlete 5160622
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Ethan Black · WR
CFBD athlete 5160163
- kickReturns · AVG
- 15.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 15
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 15
Finn Furmanek · TE
CFBD athlete 5160164
- receiving · LONG
- 31
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 31
- receiving · YPR
- 31.0
Gabe Burkle · TE
CFBD athlete 4869519
- receiving · LONG
- 20
- receiving · REC
- 6
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 65
- receiving · YPR
- 10.8
Ibn McDaniels · S
CFBD athlete 5195461
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Ikenna Ezeogu · DE
CFBD athlete 4826502
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 4
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 12
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Jackson Ford · DE
CFBD athlete 5244760
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Jahmir Joseph · CB
CFBD athlete 5141548
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 9
James Peoples · RB
CFBD athlete 5110454
- receiving · LONG
- 11
- receiving · REC
- 3
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 24
- receiving · YPR
- 8.0
- rushing · CAR
- 57
- rushing · LONG
- 16
- rushing · TD
- 2
- rushing · YDS
- 246
- rushing · YPC
- 4.3
Jamison Patton · S
CFBD athlete 4950395
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 14
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 26
- interceptions · AVG
- 13.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 13
Jeremiah Cooper · S
CFBD athlete 4833357
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 10
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 19
- interceptions · AVG
- 0.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 0
John Klosterman · LB
CFBD athlete 5081870
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Josiah Zayas · CB
CFBD athlete 5289311
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 15
- defensive · TD
- 1
- defensive · TFL
- 2.5
- defensive · TOT
- 21
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
- interceptions · AVG
- 25.5
- interceptions · INT
- 2
- interceptions · TD
- 1
- interceptions · YDS
- 51
Karon Brookins · WR
CFBD athlete 5215218
- receiving · LONG
- 8
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 8
- receiving · YPR
- 8.0
Keanu Williams · DT
CFBD athlete 4431612
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 6
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 18
Koby Howard · WR
CFBD athlete 5141525
- receiving · LONG
- 70
- receiving · REC
- 12
- receiving · TD
- 2
- receiving · YDS
- 344
- receiving · YPR
- 28.7
- rushing · CAR
- 2
- rushing · LONG
- 20
- rushing · TD
- 1
- rushing · YDS
- 24
- rushing · YPC
- 12.0
Kooper Ebel · LB
CFBD athlete 5076123
- defensive · PD
- 3
- defensive · QB HUR
- 3
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 18
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.5
- defensive · TOT
- 43
Liam Andrews · DT
CFBD athlete 5079302
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
Logan Cunningham · WR
CFBD athlete 5219077
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 2
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 2
- rushing · YPC
- 2.0
Marcus Neal · S
CFBD athlete 5173604
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 14
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 22
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Matthew Parker · PK
CFBD athlete 5294256
- kicking · FGA
- 0
- kicking · FGM
- 0
- kicking · LONG
- 0
- kicking · PCT
- 0
- kicking · PTS
- 1
- kicking · XPA
- 1
- kicking · XPM
- 1
Max Granville · DE
CFBD athlete 5141483
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 0
Nathan Tiyce · P
CFBD athlete 5294651
- passing · ATT
- 1
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 1
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 1.000
- passing · TD
- 0
- passing · YDS
- 13
- passing · YPA
- 13.0
- punting · In 20
- 12
- punting · LONG
- 60
- punting · NO
- 32
- punting · TB
- 4
- punting · YDS
- 1305
- punting · YPP
- 40.8
Quinton Martin Jr. · RB
CFBD athlete 5079577
- receiving · LONG
- 4
- receiving · REC
- 4
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 4
- receiving · YPR
- 1.0
- rushing · CAR
- 31
- rushing · LONG
- 61
- rushing · TD
- 1
- rushing · YDS
- 160
- rushing · YPC
- 5.2
Rocco Becht · QB
CFBD athlete 4801299
- fumbles · FUM
- 3
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- passing · ATT
- 234
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 148
- passing · INT
- 5
- passing · PCT
- 0.632
- passing · TD
- 13
- passing · YDS
- 1839
- passing · YPA
- 7.9
- rushing · CAR
- 55
- rushing · LONG
- 19
- rushing · TD
- 2
- rushing · YDS
- 78
- rushing · YPC
- 1.4
Ryan Barker · PK
CFBD athlete 5092232
- kicking · FGA
- 16
- kicking · FGM
- 12
- kicking · LONG
- 48
- kicking · PCT
- 0.750
- kicking · PTS
- 61
- kicking · XPA
- 25
- kicking · XPM
- 25
Siale Liku · DT
CFBD athlete 4427804
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 15
Tony Rojas · LB
CFBD athlete 4918098
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 3
- defensive · SACKS
- 5
- defensive · SOLO
- 30
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 10.5
- defensive · TOT
- 58
- interceptions · AVG
- 6.5
- interceptions · INT
- 2
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 13
Tyler Armstead · CB
CFBD athlete 5230372
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Tyrell Chatman · CB
CFBD athlete 5278306
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
Tyriq Blanding · DT
CFBD athlete 4899469
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Vaboue Toure · S
CFBD athlete 5079611
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 5
Xxavier Thomas · CB
CFBD athlete 5193689
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
Yvan Kemajou · DE
CFBD athlete 5213238
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 4
- defensive · SACKS
- 2
- defensive · SOLO
- 8
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3.5
- defensive · TOT
- 17
Zay Robinson · WR
CFBD athlete 5296212
- kickReturns · AVG
- 18.4
- kickReturns · LONG
- 34
- kickReturns · NO
- 7
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 129
- puntReturns · AVG
- 11.0
- puntReturns · LONG
- 38
- puntReturns · NO
- 20
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 219
- receiving · LONG
- 39
- receiving · REC
- 9
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 129
- receiving · YPR
- 14.3
Zion Tracy · CB
CFBD athlete 5100946
- defensive · PD
- 4
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 17
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.0
- defensive · TOT
- 23
- interceptions · AVG
- -2.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- -2
Washington
Window: 2026-11-01 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported) · 2026-10-10 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-07T20:30:00+00:00.
| Player | Passing | Rushing |
|---|---|---|
| Elijah Brown QB 3 games | 43.1% 44 / 102 plays | 0.0% 0 / 2 plays |
| Demond Williams Jr. QB 2 games | 37.9% 11 / 29 plays | 33.3% 3 / 9 plays |
| Brian Bonner Jr. RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 29.6% 8 / 27 plays |
| Trevion Cooley RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 42.9% 6 / 14 plays |
| Dezmen Roebuck WR 2 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 33.3% 2 / 6 plays |
| Jayden Limar RB 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 50.0% 1 / 2 plays |
| Kade Eldridge TE 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 100.0% 1 / 1 plays |
| Chris Lawson WR 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 100.0% 1 / 1 plays |
Traditional season production · 54 players
Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.
Alex McLaughlin · S
CFBD athlete 5152504
- defensive · PD
- 4
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 2.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 31
- defensive · TD
- 1
- defensive · TFL
- 7.0
- defensive · TOT
- 57
- interceptions · AVG
- 17.3
- interceptions · INT
- 3
- interceptions · TD
- 1
- interceptions · YDS
- 52
Ansu Sanoe · RB
CFBD athlete 5159065
- rushing · CAR
- 7
- rushing · LONG
- 5
- rushing · TD
- 2
- rushing · YDS
- 8
- rushing · YPC
- 1.1
Baron Naone · TE
CFBD athlete 5164338
- receiving · LONG
- 75
- receiving · REC
- 19
- receiving · TD
- 2
- receiving · YDS
- 269
- receiving · YPR
- 14.2
Brian Bonner Jr. · RB
CFBD athlete 5200430
- receiving · LONG
- 25
- receiving · REC
- 4
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 31
- receiving · YPR
- 7.8
- rushing · CAR
- 68
- rushing · LONG
- 55
- rushing · TD
- 1
- rushing · YDS
- 309
- rushing · YPC
- 4.5
Chris Lawson · WR
CFBD athlete 5141559
- receiving · LONG
- 43
- receiving · REC
- 44
- receiving · TD
- 3
- receiving · YDS
- 638
- receiving · YPR
- 14.5
- rushing · CAR
- 2
- rushing · LONG
- 9
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 6
- rushing · YPC
- 3.0
Darin Conley · DL
CFBD athlete 5120377
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 3
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 10
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.5
- defensive · TOT
- 15
DeSean Watts · DL
CFBD athlete 5152808
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 10
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2
- defensive · TOT
- 12
Decker DeGraaf · TE
CFBD athlete 5079373
- receiving · LONG
- 42
- receiving · REC
- 15
- receiving · TD
- 2
- receiving · YDS
- 156
- receiving · YPR
- 10.4
Demond Williams Jr. · QB
CFBD athlete 5079653
- fumbles · FUM
- 2
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- passing · ATT
- 187
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 123
- passing · INT
- 3
- passing · PCT
- 0.658
- passing · TD
- 9
- passing · YDS
- 1495
- passing · YPA
- 8.0
- rushing · CAR
- 68
- rushing · LONG
- 36
- rushing · TD
- 2
- rushing · YDS
- 211
- rushing · YPC
- 3.1
Derek Colman-Brusa · DL
CFBD athlete 5209396
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 2
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3
- defensive · TOT
- 12
Derek Zammit · QB
CFBD athlete 5209387
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 2
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 2
- rushing · YPC
- 2.0
Devin Hyde · EDGE
CFBD athlete 5214500
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Dezmen Roebuck · WR
CFBD athlete 5166797
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- passing · ATT
- 1
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 1
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 1.000
- passing · TD
- 1
- passing · YDS
- 5
- passing · YPA
- 5.0
- receiving · LONG
- 43
- receiving · REC
- 53
- receiving · TD
- 3
- receiving · YDS
- 509
- receiving · YPR
- 9.6
- rushing · CAR
- 6
- rushing · LONG
- 9
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 10
- rushing · YPC
- 1.7
Donovan Robinson Jr. · LB
CFBD athlete 5210065
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Drew Azzopardi · OL
CFBD athlete 4900754
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Dylan Robinson · CB
CFBD athlete 5201879
- defensive · PD
- 4
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 27
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 35
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- interceptions · AVG
- 0.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 0
- puntReturns · AVG
- 0.0
- puntReturns · LONG
- 0
- puntReturns · NO
- 1
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 0
Elias Johnson · CB
CFBD athlete 5147175
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Elijah Brown · QB
CFBD athlete 5079318
- passing · ATT
- 99
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 70
- passing · INT
- 3
- passing · PCT
- 0.707
- passing · TD
- 7
- passing · YDS
- 714
- passing · YPA
- 7.2
- rushing · CAR
- 7
- rushing · LONG
- 0
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- -46
- rushing · YPC
- -6.6
Elijah Durr · CB
CFBD athlete 5210472
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Elinneus Davis · DL
CFBD athlete 4918439
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 10
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 13
Emmanuel Karnley · CB
CFBD athlete 4923299
- defensive · PD
- 5
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 10
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 19
- interceptions · AVG
- 0.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 0
Gavin Day · S
CFBD athlete 5277004
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Hayden Moore · EDGE
CFBD athlete 5077503
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Hunter Green · P
CFBD athlete 5083238
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
- punting · In 20
- 14
- punting · LONG
- 64
- punting · NO
- 41
- punting · TB
- 3
- punting · YDS
- 1971
- punting · YPP
- 48.1
Isaiah Ward · EDGE
CFBD athlete 4911674
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 10
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3
- defensive · TOT
- 16
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Jacob Lane · EDGE
CFBD athlete 5077303
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 4
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 16
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 6
- defensive · TOT
- 22
Jacob Manu · LB
CFBD athlete 4896317
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 2.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 28
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3.5
- defensive · TOT
- 44
Jayden Limar · RB
CFBD athlete 4870868
- receiving · LONG
- 8
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 8
- receiving · YPR
- 8.0
- rushing · CAR
- 14
- rushing · LONG
- 11
- rushing · TD
- 1
- rushing · YDS
- 58
- rushing · YPC
- 4.1
Jeron Jones · CB
CFBD athlete 5276974
- defensive · PD
- 3
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 15
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 21
- interceptions · AVG
- 4.5
- interceptions · INT
- 2
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 9
Jordan Clay · WR
CFBD athlete 5158960
- receiving · LONG
- 19
- receiving · REC
- 10
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 86
- receiving · YPR
- 8.6
Justice Williams · WR
CFBD athlete 5146758
- receiving · LONG
- 22
- receiving · REC
- 2
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 40
- receiving · YPR
- 20.0
Kade Eldridge · TE
CFBD athlete 5077668
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- receiving · LONG
- 23
- receiving · REC
- 2
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 24
- receiving · YPR
- 12.0
- rushing · CAR
- 4
- rushing · LONG
- 4
- rushing · TD
- 1
- rushing · YDS
- 9
- rushing · YPC
- 2.3
Kai McClendon · DL
CFBD athlete 5192957
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 11
Logan George · EDGE
CFBD athlete 5158778
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 5
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 11
Mason James · WR
CFBD athlete 5198507
- receiving · LONG
- 21
- receiving · REC
- 8
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 39
- receiving · YPR
- 4.9
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 3
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 3
- rushing · YPC
- 3.0
Omar Khan · DL
CFBD athlete 5148881
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Paul Mencke Jr. · S
CFBD athlete 5110452
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Quaid Carr · RB
CFBD athlete 5209302
- receiving · LONG
- 4
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 4
- receiving · YPR
- 4.0
- rushing · CAR
- 5
- rushing · LONG
- 13
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 28
- rushing · YPC
- 5.6
Rahim Wright II · S
CFBD athlete 5139858
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Rahshawn Clark · CB
CFBD athlete 5079343
- defensive · PD
- 3
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 15
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 21
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- interceptions · AVG
- 57.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 57
- kickReturns · AVG
- 17.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 31
- kickReturns · NO
- 13
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 221
- puntReturns · AVG
- 6.7
- puntReturns · LONG
- 27
- puntReturns · NO
- 7
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 47
Ramonz Adams Jr. · CB
CFBD athlete 5186444
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Ramzak Fruean · EDGE
CFBD athlete 5276964
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 11
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 13
Rashid Williams · WR
CFBD athlete 4871068
- receiving · LONG
- 44
- receiving · REC
- 21
- receiving · TD
- 3
- receiving · YDS
- 294
- receiving · YPR
- 14.0
Russell Davis II · EDGE
CFBD athlete 4816094
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 2
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2
- defensive · TOT
- 6
Ryan Kean · LS
CFBD athlete 5088961
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Ryken Moon · RB
CFBD athlete 5294121
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 0
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 0
- rushing · YPC
- 0.0
Rylon Dillard-Allen · S
CFBD athlete 5167175
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 28
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 39
- interceptions · AVG
- 6.7
- interceptions · INT
- 3
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 20
Taariq Al-Uqdah · LB
CFBD athlete 4685239
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 10
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.5
- defensive · TOT
- 23
- interceptions · AVG
- 0.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 0
- kickReturns · AVG
- 17.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 17
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 17
Trevion Cooley · RB
CFBD athlete 4601283
- fumbles · FUM
- 4
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- receiving · LONG
- 7
- receiving · REC
- 5
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 17
- receiving · YPR
- 3.4
- rushing · CAR
- 38
- rushing · LONG
- 53
- rushing · TD
- 1
- rushing · YDS
- 170
- rushing · YPC
- 4.5
Trez Davis · WR
CFBD athlete 5274332
- receiving · LONG
- 29
- receiving · REC
- 9
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 99
- receiving · YPR
- 11.0
Tufanua Ionatana Umu-Cais · DL
CFBD athlete 5163000
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Tyler Robles · PK
CFBD athlete 5153154
- kicking · FGA
- 12
- kicking · FGM
- 10
- kicking · LONG
- 50
- kicking · PCT
- 0.833
- kicking · PTS
- 54
- kicking · XPA
- 24
- kicking · XPM
- 24
Xe'Ree Alexander · LB
CFBD athlete 5165125
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 12
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 22
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
- kickReturns · AVG
- 25.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 25
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 25
Zaydrius Rainey-Sale · LB
CFBD athlete 5142595
- defensive · PD
- 4
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 27
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 5.0
- defensive · TOT
- 40
Pregame weather
Decision-time forecast unavailable
No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.
Weather context
Weather record unavailable
Evidence cutoff: . This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.
No matching weather context has been published for this game.
- Verified pregame availability
- Unavailable
- Measurement units
- Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
- Forecast issue time
- Unavailable
- Forecast valid time
- Unavailable
Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.
Latest published card · In-season model
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.
No pick
Washington -2.5
DraftKings snapshot: Washington -2.5
Washington by 1.95
0.55 points toward Penn State versus the spread. gap below pick minimum The gap is not a cover probability.
Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast
Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately
Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward Washington.
- Fitted offset: +5.20
- Net EPA rating difference: -2.05
- Fitted home field: -1.20
Reconciles to 1.95 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.
Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.
Fit c4bb7cb5f7676bad6ca935c9ad6de236fbdb43b95c02a90800020598436e58af · inputs 8899d910453c81dd1bc938ebcdb9ed2345a986a3fa69e23afa2f213fcd551492 · training 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51 · forecast 409b6bd4d0473543b5e3cfb402b86c8718fae25d40b1ecdbc36e618b402e8dc9 · through week 9.
What changed?
7 saved cards for this gameNo change in spread, forecast or model gap.
The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.
Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.
| Recorded value | Earlier | Latest | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market spread | -2.5 | -2.5 | 0.0 |
| Model spread | -1.95 | -1.95 | 0.0 |
| Model gap | -0.55 | -0.55 | 0.0 |
Negative spreads favor Washington; positive model gap favors them too.
Capture times & sources
Earlier saved card
Generated
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
In-season model · rating source as of unknown
Latest published card
Generated
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
In-season model · rating source as of unknown
Model gap = market spread minus model spread.
This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.
Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.
- Earlier saved card SHA-256
- 09ae362bba85693dce95202484e390b841fbdf36d21ea093fee4dd02276f20a9
- Odds source SHA-256
- 1191efda55b02705391f90dc98ac55459f647f2300778ae80eca48d727f2d3cf
- Latest published card SHA-256
- 1cb82609908ef20168d6821e20ce6db6dd11891a77105bc3ac9b18df06cadb8b
- Odds source SHA-256
- d0dba70812098c221b0c8c478c2238c95459bef99e39ca41d677e1f30597fc3c
Model context & pick method
Pick logic
Card generated . Captured prices are not live quotes.
- Output:
- Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
- Model:
- EPA-OLS
- Training:
- 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9; 285 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
- Features:
- EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 8899d910453c81dd1bc938ebcdb9ed2345a986a3fa69e23afa2f213fcd551492. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
- Evaluation:
- EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.
Training: 285 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.
Training-only RMSE: 15.77 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.
No pick · gap below pick minimum · gap -0.6 points, minimum 3.0
Win probabilities · separate sources
Washington win probability by source
- EPA-OLS calibrated win probability
- Unavailable
- Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
- CFBD market-based probability
- 57%
- Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:01:15 CST; CFBD source spread: Washington -2.5
- Stacked ensemble
- 58%
- Stacked ensemble from the model pack
Explain this StackedEnsemble probability
Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.
Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward Washington.
- home elo: +11.77 (path difference 5.23)
- home adjusted epa allowed: -7.20 (path difference 0.38)
- away elo: -7.19 (path difference 2.67)
- away adjusted passing epa allowed: +6.80 (path difference 3.46)
- home adjusted passing epa allowed: +6.60 (path difference 4.53)
- away adjusted epa allowed: -6.31 (path difference 1.91)
- home adjusted epa: +6.06 (path difference 1.88)
- home adjusted second level yards: +5.98 (path difference 1.07)
- home adjusted success allowed: +5.71 (path difference 1.01)
- home adjusted rushing epa allowed: +5.20 (path difference 1.13)
- away talent: -5.10 (path difference 0.41)
- home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +4.58 (path difference 0.96)
- home talent: +4.39 (path difference 0.45)
- home adjusted rushing epa: -4.34 (path difference 0.23)
- away adjusted second level yards allowed: +4.02 (path difference 3.18)
- home adjusted line yards: -3.69 (path difference 1.12)
- away adjusted success allowed: -3.34 (path difference 2.75)
- away adjusted success: -3.11 (path difference 0.73)
- away adjusted passing down success allowed: -2.55 (path difference 2.34)
- home adjusted open field yards allowed: +2.53 (path difference 0.34)
- away adjusted standard down success allowed: -2.43 (path difference 2.26)
- away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: -2.38 (path difference 0.27)
- home adjusted passing down success allowed: -2.13 (path difference 1.07)
- away adjusted second level yards: +2.02 (path difference 1.00)
- away adjusted pass explosiveness: +1.77 (path difference 0.01)
- away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +1.72 (path difference 1.16)
- away adjusted passing down success: -1.55 (path difference 1.82)
- home adjusted passing down success: -1.51 (path difference 0.58)
- home adjusted standard down success allowed: -1.49 (path difference 1.36)
- away adjusted epa: +1.35 (path difference 0.79)
- home adjusted explosiveness: +1.28 (path difference 1.13)
- week: -1.09 (path difference 0.46)
- home adjusted passing epa: +1.09 (path difference 0.33)
- home adjusted standard down success: +0.96 (path difference 1.79)
- home adjusted success: +0.94 (path difference 0.43)
- away adjusted rushing epa allowed: +0.80 (path difference 0.30)
- away adjusted explosiveness: +0.64 (path difference 0.42)
- away adjusted standard down success: +0.53 (path difference 0.05)
- away adjusted passing epa: -0.50 (path difference 0.45)
- home adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.49 (path difference 0.31)
- home adjusted open field yards: -0.49 (path difference 0.45)
- away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: -0.34 (path difference 1.30)
- away adjusted open field yards: +0.33 (path difference 0.19)
- away adjusted open field yards allowed: +0.33 (path difference 0.11)
- away adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.32 (path difference 0.49)
- home adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.30 (path difference 1.33)
- home adjusted second level yards allowed: +0.19 (path difference 0.06)
- home conference: +0.18 (path difference 0.44)
- away conference: +0.17 (path difference 0.42)
- away adjusted line yards allowed: +0.17 (path difference 0.02)
- away adjusted rushing epa: -0.14 (path difference 0.07)
- home adjusted line yards allowed: -0.13 (path difference 0.44)
- away adjusted line yards: +0.10 (path difference 0.02)
- home adjusted explosiveness allowed: -0.05 (path difference 0.01)
- home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +0.03 (path difference 0.00)
Reconciles to 57.84 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.
Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.
Fit e302459ca56c4f194361bcc0ad952fb75b35a71b9ff0feaf8dede9dc1265ad90 · inputs 01bc91972849781c2348933f7377503769068a90054ab93dfaeb60b7cb8ae345 · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast 12a526e9a2eafdd2424f346c7c5f52cf786427c77029e8f8de6fb482ac94734f · through week 9.
- Output:
- Home win probability (%), display only
- Model:
- StackedEnsemble
- Training:
- Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
- Features:
- Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
- Evaluation:
- Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record
The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.
Rushing workload · last three team games
CFBD individually attributed rushing attempts, including attributed sacks. Captured before kickoff; descriptive context, separate from the forecast. Through 2026-11-06 UTC.
Penn State
3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 111 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.
| Player | Attempts | YPC | Sacks | Attributed share | Captured season attempts / YPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Carson HansenCFBD athlete 5077502 Week 6 vs USC: 14 attempts · 2.0 YPC · 38.5% success · 0.080 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Michigan: 15 attempts · 3.4 YPC · 46.7% success · -0.021 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Purdue: 17 attempts · 5.6 YPC · 41.2% success · 0.246 raw PPA. | 46 | 3.8 | 1 | 41.4% | 88 / 4.1 |
Rocco BechtCFBD athlete 4801299 Week 6 vs USC: 10 attempts · 2.0 YPC · 22.2% success · -0.024 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Michigan: 7 attempts · -0.1 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.005 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Purdue: 11 attempts · 2.5 YPC · 55.6% success · 0.577 raw PPA. | 28 | 1.6 | 6 | 25.2% | 53 / 1.2 |
Cam WallaceCFBD athlete 5121541 Week 9 vs Purdue: 22 attempts · 6.1 YPC · 36.4% success · 0.266 raw PPA. | 22 | 6.1 | 0 | 19.8% | 44 / 5.9 |
James PeoplesCFBD athlete 5110454 Week 6 vs USC: 7 attempts · 2.9 YPC · 28.6% success · -0.226 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Michigan: 5 attempts · 2.8 YPC · 20.0% success · -0.232 raw PPA. | 12 | 2.8 | 0 | 10.8% | 60 / 3.3 |
Quinton Martin Jr.CFBD athlete 5079577 Week 7 vs Michigan: 2 attempts · 1.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.539 raw PPA. | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1.8% | 31 / 5.2 |
Washington
3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 74 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.
| Player | Attempts | YPC | Sacks | Attributed share | Captured season attempts / YPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brian Bonner Jr.CFBD athlete 5200430 Week 6 vs Iowa: 10 attempts · 1.7 YPC · 10.0% success · -0.429 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Purdue: 13 attempts · 4.9 YPC · 46.2% success · -0.104 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Nebraska: 4 attempts · 3.3 YPC · 25.0% success · -0.202 raw PPA. | 27 | 3.5 | 0 | 36.5% | 67 / 4.6 |
Demond Williams Jr.CFBD athlete 5079653 Week 6 vs Iowa: 11 attempts · -0.7 YPC · 14.3% success · -0.093 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Nebraska: 4 attempts · 7.0 YPC · 100.0% success · 1.725 raw PPA. | 15 | 1.3 | 6 | 20.3% | 64 / 3.2 |
Trevion CooleyCFBD athlete 4601283 Week 6 vs Iowa: 2 attempts · 1.0 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.859 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Purdue: 7 attempts · 15.7 YPC · 57.1% success · 0.767 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Nebraska: 5 attempts · 1.0 YPC · 20.0% success · -0.753 raw PPA. | 14 | 8.4 | 0 | 18.9% | 37 / 4.5 |
Elijah BrownCFBD athlete 5079318 Week 6 vs Iowa: 2 attempts · -7.0 YPC · 0.0% success · 0.000 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Purdue: 3 attempts · -5.3 YPC · 0.0% success · -1.004 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Nebraska: 2 attempts · -8.0 YPC · 0.0% success · 0.000 raw PPA. | 7 | -6.6 | 5 | 9.5% | 7 / -6.6 |
Dezmen RoebuckCFBD athlete 5166797 Week 7 vs Purdue: 5 attempts · 3.2 YPC · 40.0% success · -0.105 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Nebraska: 1 attempts · -6.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.753 raw PPA. | 6 | 1.7 | 0 | 8.1% | 6 / 1.7 |
Team-only and unresolved attempts are outside this player population. Game PPA and success rates retain provider denominators; they are not pooled across games. Missing appearances do not establish player availability. This three-game window is separate from the 100-play form window.
Team matchup statistics
Offense vs defense
2026 season to date · through Week 9, captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.
| Measure | WashingtonOffense | Penn StateDefense | Penn StateOffense | WashingtonDefense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPA/play | +0.12 48th | +0.03 67th | +0.14 53rd | -0.03 83rd |
| Success rate | 41.5% 41st | 37.8% 74th | 42.1% 46th | 39.3% 64th |
| Explosiveness | 1.26 58th | 1.28 30th | 1.20 37th | 1.19 67th |
| Standard-down PPA/play | +0.11 61st | -0.06 79th | +0.10 57th | -0.04 74th |
| Passing-down PPA/play | +0.15 31st | +0.23 37th | +0.23 50th | -0.00 91st |
| Havoc allowed / created | 15.5% 40th | 18.0% 77th | 12.5% 84th | 18.7% 83rd |
Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.
CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR
Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions
Preview captured Nov 6, 2026, 6:16:16 AM CST · assembled Nov 6, 2026, 6:16:16 AM CST
Checking current kickoff time before showing captured pregame metrics.
2026 kicker PAAR
Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Nov 6, 2026, 6:15:45 AM CST.
- Ryan Barker · Penn State · PAAR 0.62 · 16 attempts
- Tyler Robles · Washington · PAAR 2.72 · 12 attempts
Player recent form
CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.
Checking kickoff before showing recent player metrics.
Captured line movement
Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Nov 6, 2026, 14:39:19 CST · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.
Loading recorded line history… Open this game’s recorded history.
Line history & team context
Card snapshot lines
Washington spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.
DraftKings
CFBD-reported opening: -2.5 · Snapshot spread: -2.5
First locally observed: -2.5 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Total · CFBD-reported opening: 44.5 · Snapshot total: 44.5
Total · First locally observed: 44.5 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Total observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Home moneyline · Snapshot: -135 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Home moneyline · First locally observed: -122 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Home moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Away moneyline · Snapshot: +114 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Away moneyline · First locally observed: +102 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Away moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Bovada
CFBD-reported opening: -2 · Snapshot spread: -2.5
First locally observed: -2 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Total · CFBD-reported opening: 44.5 · Snapshot total: 44
Total · First locally observed: 44.5 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Total observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Home moneyline · Snapshot: -125 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Home moneyline · First locally observed: -125 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Home moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Away moneyline · Snapshot: +105 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Away moneyline · First locally observed: +105 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Away moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Washington
Net adjusted EPA/play +0.1 · 9 rated weeks · Big Ten
Penn State
Net adjusted EPA/play +0.1 · 9 rated weeks · Big Ten
Travel
Penn State travels 2,219 miles (longer than 90% of road trips, 2017–2025) · 3 time zones crossed · down 1,124 ft in elevation.
Distance uses the campuses because this schedule has no venue.
The 2017–2025 study found no overall ATS edge. Distance and time-zone groups cover near a coin flip. The 2,500+ mile group is above break-even but dominated by Hawai'i trips, so it is not a betting rule.
Series history
Penn State leads 4–0 in 4 meetings since 1921.
- 2024Washington at Penn State6–35 · Penn State
- 2017 · NWashington at Penn State28–35 · Penn State
- 1983 · NWashington at Penn State10–13 · Penn State
- 1921Penn State at Washington21–7 · Penn State
CFBD matchup data Last 4 meetings shown. N marks a neutral site. History is not a projection input.
Team style charts
Model output, not betting advice. Historical hit rates are small-sample backtests; several edge buckets lose money at -110. Flat units only.