Week 9 · 2026
Washington State at San Diego State
Visual game report
Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.
Player production & success
CFBD regular season · through week 8 · observed 2026-10-30 UTC. Captured before kickoff.
Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.
Washington State
Window: 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported) · 2026-10-10 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-31T23:00:00+00:00.
| Player | Passing | Rushing |
|---|---|---|
| Owen Eshelman QB 2 games | 33.7% 32 / 95 plays | 51.6% 16 / 31 plays |
| Caden Pinnick QB 1 games | 25.6% 10 / 39 plays | 57.1% 4 / 7 plays |
| Kirby Vorhees RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 35.3% 6 / 17 plays |
| Leo Pulalasi RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 25.0% 4 / 16 plays |
| Maxwell Woods RB 2 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 0.0% 0 / 9 plays |
| Julian Dugger QB 2 games | 0.0% 0 / 1 plays | 100.0% 3 / 3 plays |
| Tank Hawkins WR 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 0.0% 0 / 1 plays |
Traditional season production · 51 players
Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.
Beau Baker · TE
CFBD athlete 5227824
- receiving · LONG
- 12
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 12
- receiving · YPR
- 12.0
Ben Beatty · DE
CFBD athlete 5228147
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 6
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 8
Branden Ganashamoorthy · WR
CFBD athlete 5153065
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- receiving · LONG
- 46
- receiving · REC
- 30
- receiving · TD
- 3
- receiving · YDS
- 401
- receiving · YPR
- 13.4
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 1
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 1
- rushing · YPC
- 1.0
CJ Solis-Lumar · CB
CFBD athlete 5298065
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 10
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 13
Caden Pinnick · QB
CFBD athlete 5226019
- fumbles · FUM
- 3
- fumbles · LOST
- 3
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- passing · ATT
- 178
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 110
- passing · INT
- 5
- passing · PCT
- 0.618
- passing · TD
- 3
- passing · YDS
- 952
- passing · YPA
- 5.3
- rushing · CAR
- 74
- rushing · LONG
- 26
- rushing · TD
- 3
- rushing · YDS
- 194
- rushing · YPC
- 2.6
Carsten Reynolds · LB
CFBD athlete 5227816
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 4
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
DJ Warner · LB
CFBD athlete 5149495
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 14
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.0
- defensive · TOT
- 32
Damarjhe Lewis · DT
CFBD athlete 4431227
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3.0
- defensive · TOT
- 15
Daniel Blood · WR
CFBD athlete 5119307
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
- receiving · LONG
- 32
- receiving · REC
- 30
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 309
- receiving · YPR
- 10.3
Darrius Clemons · WR
CFBD athlete 4685297
- receiving · LONG
- 18
- receiving · REC
- 20
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 218
- receiving · YPR
- 10.9
Eduwa Okundaye · DE
CFBD athlete 5147188
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Fernando Lecuona · DE
CFBD athlete 5227827
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Gage Jones · LB
CFBD athlete 5228145
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 6
Gavin Fugate · LB
CFBD athlete 5153063
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- kickReturns · AVG
- 0.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 0
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 0
Ike Okafor · DT
CFBD athlete 5213124
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Isaiah Hung · LB
CFBD athlete 5263016
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 20
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.0
- defensive · TOT
- 37
Jack Bal · S
CFBD athlete 5159816
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 16
- defensive · TD
- 1
- defensive · TFL
- 2.0
- defensive · TOT
- 28
- interceptions · AVG
- 25.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 1
- interceptions · YDS
- 25
Jack Ellison · LB
CFBD athlete 5228146
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 5
Jack Pedersen · TE
CFBD athlete 4685492
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- receiving · LONG
- 26
- receiving · REC
- 17
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 129
- receiving · YPR
- 7.6
Jack Stevens · PK
CFBD athlete 5227843
- kicking · FGA
- 14
- kicking · FGM
- 9
- kicking · LONG
- 50
- kicking · PCT
- 0.643
- kicking · PTS
- 41
- kicking · XPA
- 15
- kicking · XPM
- 14
Jalil Tucker · CB
CFBD athlete 4685584
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 10
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 16
- kickReturns · AVG
- 17.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 17
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 17
Jamarey Smith · CB
CFBD athlete 5215567
- defensive · PD
- 5
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 22
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 30
Jaylen Thomas · S
CFBD athlete 5220604
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 19
- defensive · TD
- 2
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 33
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- interceptions · AVG
- 40.5
- interceptions · INT
- 2
- interceptions · TD
- 1
- interceptions · YDS
- 81
- kickReturns · AVG
- 21.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 33
- kickReturns · NO
- 4
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 84
- puntReturns · AVG
- 10.6
- puntReturns · LONG
- 47
- puntReturns · NO
- 9
- puntReturns · TD
- 1
- puntReturns · YDS
- 95
Jeremiah Bernard · S
CFBD athlete 5223910
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 16
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 26
Jirah Leaupepetele · DT
CFBD athlete 5152136
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 2.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 11
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3
- defensive · TOT
- 23
Josh Wedel · DT
CFBD athlete 5264503
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.0
- defensive · TOT
- 6
Julian Dugger · QB
CFBD athlete 5155864
- passing · ATT
- 1
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 1
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 1.000
- passing · TD
- 0
- passing · YDS
- 2
- passing · YPA
- 2.0
- rushing · CAR
- 3
- rushing · LONG
- 6
- rushing · TD
- 1
- rushing · YDS
- 12
- rushing · YPC
- 4.0
Kaden Beatty · DT
CFBD athlete 5092211
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 6
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.0
- defensive · TOT
- 21
Kai Rapolla · CB
CFBD athlete 5112995
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 9
Kayo Patu · CB
CFBD athlete 5147870
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 7
Keith Brown · LB
CFBD athlete 4431200
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 36
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3.0
- defensive · TOT
- 60
Khamari Terrell · CB
CFBD athlete 4911919
- defensive · PD
- 4
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 18
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.5
- defensive · TOT
- 28
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Kirby Vorhees · RB
CFBD athlete 5154732
- fumbles · FUM
- 2
- fumbles · LOST
- 2
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- receiving · LONG
- 14
- receiving · REC
- 13
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 69
- receiving · YPR
- 5.3
- rushing · CAR
- 59
- rushing · LONG
- 58
- rushing · TD
- 3
- rushing · YDS
- 275
- rushing · YPC
- 4.7
Kyle Peterson · S
CFBD athlete 5214533
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Leo Pulalasi · RB
CFBD athlete 5076654
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- receiving · LONG
- 6
- receiving · REC
- 11
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 43
- receiving · YPR
- 3.9
- rushing · CAR
- 29
- rushing · LONG
- 54
- rushing · TD
- 1
- rushing · YDS
- 118
- rushing · YPC
- 4.1
Linus Zunk · DE
CFBD athlete 4782663
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 7
- defensive · SACKS
- 2.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 11
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 4.5
- defensive · TOT
- 32
Luke Webb · DE
CFBD athlete 5210502
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Malachi Wrice · DE
CFBD athlete 5174763
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Malijah Tucker · DT
CFBD athlete 5209444
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Matyus McLain · DE
CFBD athlete 5165156
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 3
- defensive · SACKS
- 0.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 11
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 5.5
- defensive · TOT
- 27
Max Dean · P
CFBD athlete 5220804
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- punting · In 20
- 12
- punting · LONG
- 60
- punting · NO
- 45
- punting · TB
- 3
- punting · YDS
- 1957
- punting · YPP
- 43.5
Maxwell Woods · RB
CFBD athlete 5227814
- puntReturns · AVG
- 5.0
- puntReturns · LONG
- 5
- puntReturns · NO
- 1
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 5
- receiving · LONG
- 14
- receiving · REC
- 8
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 44
- receiving · YPR
- 5.5
- rushing · CAR
- 42
- rushing · LONG
- 45
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 192
- rushing · YPC
- 4.6
Michael Hughes · DE
CFBD athlete 5153067
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Noah Dunham · OL
CFBD athlete 5090796
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Nylan Brown · LB
CFBD athlete 5148359
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 3
Owen Eshelman · QB
CFBD athlete 5263246
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- passing · ATT
- 89
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 53
- passing · INT
- 2
- passing · PCT
- 0.596
- passing · TD
- 2
- passing · YDS
- 480
- passing · YPA
- 5.4
- rushing · CAR
- 38
- rushing · LONG
- 41
- rushing · TD
- 1
- rushing · YDS
- 169
- rushing · YPC
- 4.4
Paul Hutson III · DT
CFBD athlete 5086070
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 6
Sean Bures · LS
CFBD athlete 5153080
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Tank Hawkins · WR
CFBD athlete 5222221
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 1
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 0
- kickReturns · AVG
- 3.5
- kickReturns · LONG
- 9
- kickReturns · NO
- 2
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 7
- puntReturns · AVG
- 36.5
- puntReturns · LONG
- 65
- puntReturns · NO
- 2
- puntReturns · TD
- 1
- puntReturns · YDS
- 73
- receiving · LONG
- 30
- receiving · REC
- 22
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 117
- receiving · YPR
- 5.3
- rushing · CAR
- 4
- rushing · LONG
- 8
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 2
- rushing · YPC
- 0.5
Trey Leckner · TE
CFBD athlete 5024359
- receiving · LONG
- 18
- receiving · REC
- 12
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 92
- receiving · YPR
- 7.7
Trey Ridley · S
CFBD athlete 5227813
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 7
San Diego State
Window: 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-18 (reported) · 2026-10-10 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-31T23:00:00+00:00.
| Player | Passing | Rushing |
|---|---|---|
| Stone Saunders QB 2 games | 48.9% 22 / 45 plays | 0.0% 0 / 2 plays |
| Lucky Sutton RB 2 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 40.0% 16 / 40 plays |
| Javion Kinnard RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 54.3% 19 / 35 plays |
| Jayden Denegal QB 2 games | 30.0% 9 / 30 plays | 66.7% 2 / 3 plays |
| Josiah Lucas RB 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 0.0% 0 / 8 plays |
| Draiden Trudeau QB 1 games | 12.5% 1 / 8 plays | — 0 / 0 plays |
| Jordin Thomas RB 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 0.0% 0 / 1 plays |
| Kime Fangupo TE 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 0.0% 0 / 1 plays |
Traditional season production · 58 players
Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.
Alijah Lash · LB
CFBD athlete 5269118
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 2
- defensive · SOLO
- 5
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2
- defensive · TOT
- 7
Amari Comier · DL
CFBD athlete 5302268
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 8
Bert Emanuel Jr. · WR
CFBD athlete 4916888
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
- passing · ATT
- 1
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 1
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 1.000
- passing · TD
- 1
- passing · YDS
- 7
- passing · YPA
- 7.0
- receiving · LONG
- 34
- receiving · REC
- 12
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 143
- receiving · YPR
- 11.9
- rushing · CAR
- 9
- rushing · LONG
- 14
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 39
- rushing · YPC
- 4.3
Brady Nassar · LB
CFBD athlete 4921444
- defensive · PD
- 3
- defensive · QB HUR
- 3
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 8
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 14
- kickReturns · AVG
- 11.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 11
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 11
Caleb Ricks · CB
CFBD athlete 5298298
- defensive · PD
- 4
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 9
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 15
Cameron Cooper · LB
CFBD athlete 5394480
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 14
- defensive · TD
- 1
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 31
- interceptions · AVG
- 32.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 1
- interceptions · YDS
- 32
Cammeron Purnell · S
CFBD athlete 5209191
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Carson Diehl · WR
CFBD athlete 5291802
- receiving · LONG
- 8
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 8
- receiving · YPR
- 8.0
Carsten Mamaril · S
CFBD athlete 5225591
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 8
Chase Shumate · S
CFBD athlete 5216903
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Christian Washington · RB
CFBD athlete 4912275
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- rushing · CAR
- 2
- rushing · LONG
- 12
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 12
- rushing · YPC
- 6.0
Cooper DiLeva · PK
CFBD athlete 5309724
- kicking · FGA
- 11
- kicking · FGM
- 10
- kicking · LONG
- 53
- kicking · PCT
- 0.909
- kicking · PTS
- 52
- kicking · XPA
- 22
- kicking · XPM
- 22
Daishaun Davis · WR
CFBD athlete 5291794
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- receiving · LONG
- 24
- receiving · REC
- 5
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 45
- receiving · YPR
- 9.0
De'yhare Overstreet-Glover · WR
CFBD athlete 5302269
- kickReturns · AVG
- 9.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 9
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 9
Dean Harrington · LB
CFBD athlete 5220412
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 3
Djibril Abdou Rahman · LB
CFBD athlete 5121452
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 4
- defensive · SACKS
- 4
- defensive · SOLO
- 12
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 6.5
- defensive · TOT
- 20
Djibril Abdou Rahman · DL
CFBD athlete 5230377
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Donovan Brown · WR
CFBD athlete 5302266
- receiving · LONG
- 38
- receiving · REC
- 7
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 75
- receiving · YPR
- 10.7
Draiden Trudeau · QB
CFBD athlete 5302259
- passing · ATT
- 14
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 8
- passing · INT
- 1
- passing · PCT
- 0.571
- passing · TD
- 1
- passing · YDS
- 66
- passing · YPA
- 4.7
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 2
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 2
- rushing · YPC
- 2.0
Gavriel Lightfoot · DL
CFBD athlete 4912252
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 16
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2
- defensive · TOT
- 36
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Isaiah Green · S
CFBD athlete 5171015
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 11
- interceptions · AVG
- 10.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 10
Jack Lua · TE
CFBD athlete 5302270
- receiving · LONG
- 10
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 10
- receiving · YPR
- 10.0
Jackson Ford · TE
CFBD athlete 5143596
- receiving · LONG
- 19
- receiving · REC
- 7
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 53
- receiving · YPR
- 7.6
Jacob Bostick · WR
CFBD athlete 4827041
- receiving · LONG
- 41
- receiving · REC
- 9
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 129
- receiving · YPR
- 14.3
Jalen Thomeson · S
CFBD athlete 5092260
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 13
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 22
Jamison Starks · CB
CFBD athlete 5394491
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
Jason Oliver · CB
CFBD athlete 4905245
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Javion Kinnard · RB
CFBD athlete 5254150
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
- puntReturns · AVG
- 13.5
- puntReturns · LONG
- 24
- puntReturns · NO
- 2
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 27
- receiving · LONG
- 29
- receiving · REC
- 9
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 102
- receiving · YPR
- 11.3
- rushing · CAR
- 91
- rushing · LONG
- 55
- rushing · TD
- 3
- rushing · YDS
- 526
- rushing · YPC
- 5.8
Jayden Denegal · QB
CFBD athlete 4685311
- passing · ATT
- 150
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 82
- passing · INT
- 5
- passing · PCT
- 0.547
- passing · TD
- 7
- passing · YDS
- 896
- passing · YPA
- 6.0
- rushing · CAR
- 27
- rushing · LONG
- 18
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 27
- rushing · YPC
- 1.0
Jaylon Hawkins · WR
CFBD athlete 5216639
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 3
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- kickReturns · AVG
- 34.8
- kickReturns · LONG
- 100
- kickReturns · NO
- 18
- kickReturns · TD
- 3
- kickReturns · YDS
- 626
- receiving · LONG
- 52
- receiving · REC
- 18
- receiving · TD
- 3
- receiving · YDS
- 322
- receiving · YPR
- 17.9
Jelani McLaughlin · S
CFBD athlete 5086011
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 35
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 53
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
- puntReturns · AVG
- 9.0
- puntReturns · LONG
- 9
- puntReturns · NO
- 1
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 9
Jelani Whitmore · CB
CFBD athlete 4699786
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 12
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 17
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Jordan Napier · WR
CFBD athlete 4918108
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- kickReturns · AVG
- 18.8
- kickReturns · LONG
- 21
- kickReturns · NO
- 4
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 75
- passing · ATT
- 1
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 1
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 1.000
- passing · TD
- 0
- passing · YDS
- -11
- passing · YPA
- -11.0
- receiving · LONG
- 42
- receiving · REC
- 15
- receiving · TD
- 2
- receiving · YDS
- 171
- receiving · YPR
- 11.4
- rushing · CAR
- 3
- rushing · LONG
- 12
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 20
- rushing · YPC
- 6.7
Jordin Thomas · RB
CFBD athlete 5164340
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- receiving · LONG
- 7
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 7
- receiving · YPR
- 7.0
- rushing · CAR
- 14
- rushing · LONG
- 18
- rushing · TD
- 1
- rushing · YDS
- 55
- rushing · YPC
- 3.9
Josh Hunter · S
CFBD athlete 4685389
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 37
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 60
Josiah Cox · S
CFBD athlete 5121567
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 30
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 48
Josiah Lucas · RB
CFBD athlete 5245054
- receiving · LONG
- 7
- receiving · REC
- 7
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 7
- receiving · YPR
- 1.0
- rushing · CAR
- 42
- rushing · LONG
- 27
- rushing · TD
- 2
- rushing · YDS
- 169
- rushing · YPC
- 4.0
Justius Lowe · WR
CFBD athlete 4912135
- receiving · LONG
- 40
- receiving · REC
- 3
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 62
- receiving · YPR
- 20.7
Kai Wallin · LB
CFBD athlete 5152190
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 4
- defensive · SACKS
- 3
- defensive · SOLO
- 9
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 4
- defensive · TOT
- 19
- interceptions · AVG
- 13.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 13
Kime Fangupo · TE
CFBD athlete 5394483
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 0
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- -1
- rushing · YPC
- -1.0
Koi Taiese · DL
CFBD athlete 5291700
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 5
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 5
Krishna Clay · DL
CFBD athlete 5220414
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 4
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 6
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.0
- defensive · TOT
- 12
Lucky Sutton · RB
CFBD athlete 4912453
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- receiving · LONG
- 4
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 4
- receiving · YPR
- 4.0
- rushing · CAR
- 85
- rushing · LONG
- 67
- rushing · TD
- 5
- rushing · YDS
- 358
- rushing · YPC
- 4.2
Malachi Finau · DL
CFBD athlete 4911953
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 2
- defensive · SOLO
- 6
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3
- defensive · TOT
- 13
Max Garrison · S
CFBD athlete 4888764
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
- kickReturns · AVG
- 21.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 21
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 21
Mike Lindsay · CB
CFBD athlete 5224059
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 17
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2
- defensive · TOT
- 22
- interceptions · AVG
- 0.7
- interceptions · INT
- 3
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 2
Nate Henrich · LB
CFBD athlete 5088359
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2
- defensive · TOT
- 6
Nathan Acevedo · WR
CFBD athlete 5082315
- fumbles · FUM
- 2
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- puntReturns · AVG
- 4.5
- puntReturns · LONG
- 16
- puntReturns · NO
- 11
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 50
- receiving · LONG
- 35
- receiving · REC
- 21
- receiving · TD
- 2
- receiving · YDS
- 235
- receiving · YPR
- 11.2
- rushing · CAR
- 2
- rushing · LONG
- 7
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 11
- rushing · YPC
- 5.5
Oberhiri Eyafe · LB
CFBD athlete 5218960
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 5
- puntReturns · AVG
- 4.0
- puntReturns · LONG
- 4
- puntReturns · NO
- 1
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 4
Parker Threatt · WR
CFBD athlete 5220411
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- kickReturns · AVG
- 30.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 30
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 30
Prince Williams · CB
CFBD athlete 5193638
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Ryan Wolfer · TE
CFBD athlete 5175719
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- receiving · LONG
- 11
- receiving · REC
- 5
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 28
- receiving · YPR
- 5.6
Sione Hala · LB
CFBD athlete 4685379
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 2
- defensive · SOLO
- 46
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.5
- defensive · TOT
- 74
Stone Saunders · QB
CFBD athlete 5141664
- passing · ATT
- 48
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 31
- passing · INT
- 2
- passing · PCT
- 0.646
- passing · TD
- 2
- passing · YDS
- 450
- passing · YPA
- 9.4
- rushing · CAR
- 4
- rushing · LONG
- 7
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- -9
- rushing · YPC
- -2.3
Tainoa Lave · S
CFBD athlete 5217851
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 11
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 21
Tano Letuli · LB
CFBD athlete 5150322
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 37
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2
- defensive · TOT
- 63
Tashi Dorje · P
CFBD athlete 5302267
- punting · In 20
- 9
- punting · LONG
- 77
- punting · NO
- 38
- punting · TB
- 2
- punting · YDS
- 1753
- punting · YPP
- 46.1
Will Cianfrini · WR
CFBD athlete 5146720
- receiving · LONG
- 7
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 7
- receiving · YPR
- 7.0
Pregame weather
Decision-time forecast unavailable
No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.
Weather context
Weather record unavailable
Evidence cutoff: . This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.
No matching weather context has been published for this game.
- Verified pregame availability
- Unavailable
- Measurement units
- Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
- Forecast issue time
- Unavailable
- Forecast valid time
- Unavailable
Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.
Latest published card · In-season model
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.
No pick
San Diego State -2.5
DraftKings snapshot: San Diego State -2.5
San Diego State by 4.39
1.89 points toward San Diego State versus the spread. gap below pick minimum The gap is not a cover probability.
Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast
Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately
Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward San Diego State.
- Fitted offset: +5.87
- Fitted home field: -1.93
- Net EPA rating difference: +0.45
Reconciles to 4.39 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.
Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.
Fit 43a90c4d579143e4336475325da6c037c0829278871c947a48303983b181ca72 · inputs 8e07298a1120dad2aab8a575935f7e31bd42c07fe4994d7d68cedd239b82e4da · training 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517 · forecast 89e607177e7a20456f80de785a32880d3d8848761abfe64b191f167055ad0faa · through week 8.
What changed?
12 saved cards for this gameNo change in spread, forecast or model gap.
The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.
Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.
| Recorded value | Earlier | Latest | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market spread | -2.5 | -2.5 | 0.0 |
| Model spread | -4.39 | -4.39 | 0.0 |
| Model gap | +1.89 | +1.89 | 0.0 |
Negative spreads favor San Diego State; positive model gap favors them too.
Capture times & sources
Earlier saved card
Generated
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
In-season model · rating source as of unknown
Latest published card
Generated
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
In-season model · rating source as of unknown
Model gap = market spread minus model spread.
This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.
Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.
- Earlier saved card SHA-256
- e2870225a3550ae3bff530e07f507a37ae8d297571a1fb3ae0be6cba56aae72d
- Odds source SHA-256
- c3afde8edfd04c38da42b18ab61b68542f93145177f25e3612c5230361aae058
- Latest published card SHA-256
- 907219f79e16b585a5fe31cf6748ec05ab06f7cd820077da867137c7509faba4
- Odds source SHA-256
- 979caa9e279ac4fb8cf2a315090127f7866efb485202ff3448873ffea01f6148
Model context & pick method
Pick logic
Card generated . Captured prices are not live quotes.
- Output:
- Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
- Model:
- EPA-OLS
- Training:
- 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8; 229 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
- Features:
- EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 8e07298a1120dad2aab8a575935f7e31bd42c07fe4994d7d68cedd239b82e4da. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
- Evaluation:
- EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.
Training: 229 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8.
Training-only RMSE: 15.64 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.
No pick · gap below pick minimum · gap +1.9 points, minimum 3.0
Win probabilities · separate sources
San Diego State win probability by source
- EPA-OLS calibrated win probability
- Unavailable
- Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
- CFBD market-based probability
- 57%
- Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:02:01 CDT; CFBD source spread: San Diego State -2.5
- Stacked ensemble
- 62%
- Stacked ensemble from the model pack
Explain this StackedEnsemble probability
Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.
Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward San Diego State.
- home elo: -15.67 (path difference 4.11)
- home adjusted epa: +12.56 (path difference 2.11)
- away adjusted epa: +10.59 (path difference 0.19)
- away adjusted success: +10.28 (path difference 0.08)
- away elo: +10.10 (path difference 3.82)
- home adjusted success: -9.06 (path difference 5.24)
- home adjusted passing epa: -7.65 (path difference 0.14)
- home adjusted success allowed: -6.88 (path difference 0.59)
- home adjusted open field yards allowed: +6.23 (path difference 2.95)
- home adjusted second level yards: +5.48 (path difference 1.27)
- away adjusted passing down success: -5.38 (path difference 2.18)
- home adjusted rushing epa: -5.02 (path difference 0.93)
- home adjusted rushing epa allowed: +4.51 (path difference 0.27)
- home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: -4.31 (path difference 0.54)
- home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +3.87 (path difference 0.87)
- away adjusted second level yards allowed: +3.82 (path difference 4.58)
- away adjusted passing epa allowed: +3.76 (path difference 1.00)
- home adjusted standard down success allowed: +3.60 (path difference 2.35)
- away adjusted pass explosiveness: +3.53 (path difference 0.64)
- away adjusted epa allowed: -2.62 (path difference 1.76)
- home conference: +2.42 (path difference 0.43)
- home adjusted open field yards: -2.25 (path difference 0.60)
- away adjusted passing down success allowed: -2.13 (path difference 0.46)
- home adjusted explosiveness: +2.06 (path difference 1.23)
- away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +1.86 (path difference 1.21)
- away adjusted explosiveness: +1.85 (path difference 0.75)
- home adjusted epa allowed: -1.76 (path difference 0.54)
- away conference: +1.71 (path difference 0.92)
- home adjusted second level yards allowed: +1.71 (path difference 0.90)
- away adjusted rush explosiveness: -1.63 (path difference 0.83)
- away adjusted rushing epa: -1.38 (path difference 0.27)
- home adjusted line yards: -1.37 (path difference 0.93)
- home talent: +1.30 (path difference 1.13)
- away talent: -1.22 (path difference 1.00)
- home adjusted passing down success: +1.10 (path difference 2.23)
- away adjusted standard down success: -1.06 (path difference 0.82)
- home adjusted passing epa allowed: +0.91 (path difference 0.03)
- away adjusted open field yards allowed: +0.88 (path difference 0.72)
- away adjusted line yards allowed: +0.84 (path difference 0.00)
- away adjusted second level yards: +0.60 (path difference 0.64)
- week: -0.57 (path difference 2.14)
- away adjusted rushing epa allowed: +0.47 (path difference 0.10)
- home adjusted standard down success: -0.44 (path difference 0.07)
- home adjusted line yards allowed: -0.35 (path difference 2.06)
- home adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.34 (path difference 0.44)
- home adjusted passing down success allowed: -0.32 (path difference 0.46)
- home adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.28 (path difference 0.12)
- away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +0.19 (path difference 0.04)
- home adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.15 (path difference 0.03)
- away adjusted success allowed: -0.09 (path difference 0.44)
- away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: -0.05 (path difference 0.00)
- away adjusted passing epa: +0.04 (path difference 0.08)
- away adjusted standard down success allowed: -0.02 (path difference 0.07)
- away adjusted open field yards: -0.01 (path difference 1.15)
- away adjusted line yards: +0.00 (path difference 0.43)
Reconciles to 61.84 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.
Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.
Fit 1ad7d19a4f250d7f5c62cdf95b70289b6ffd1cf8bdf8feb12b8623f27e5aa234 · inputs b2cdcce1678d5a740e734f277b7b913c48e2a3de934572d521830a04ddd857ae · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast bc79cd811c540ee69215fb96b514122f1bf81c6f5312b0bcb2fee9f2b3929be6 · through week 8.
- Output:
- Home win probability (%), display only
- Model:
- StackedEnsemble
- Training:
- Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
- Features:
- Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
- Evaluation:
- Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record
The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.
Rushing workload · last three team games
CFBD individually attributed rushing attempts, including attributed sacks. Captured before kickoff; descriptive context, separate from the forecast. Through 2026-10-30 UTC.
Washington State
3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 94 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.
| Player | Attempts | YPC | Sacks | Attributed share | Captured season attempts / YPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Owen EshelmanCFBD athlete 5263246 Week 7 vs Oregon State: 15 attempts · 9.1 YPC · 66.7% success · 1.086 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Boise State: 23 attempts · 1.4 YPC · 42.1% success · 0.216 raw PPA. | 38 | 4.4 | 7 | 40.4% | 38 / 4.4 |
Kirby VorheesCFBD athlete 5154732 Week 6 vs Utah State: 6 attempts · 2.7 YPC · 16.7% success · -0.215 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Oregon State: 6 attempts · 2.7 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.084 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Boise State: 5 attempts · 1.6 YPC · 40.0% success · -0.089 raw PPA. | 17 | 2.4 | 0 | 18.1% | 59 / 4.7 |
Leo PulalasiCFBD athlete 5076654 Week 6 vs Utah State: 8 attempts · 7.5 YPC · 25.0% success · 0.109 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Oregon State: 3 attempts · 2.3 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.617 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Boise State: 5 attempts · 2.4 YPC · 20.0% success · -0.363 raw PPA. | 16 | 4.9 | 0 | 17.0% | 29 / 4.1 |
Caden PinnickCFBD athlete 5226019 Week 6 vs Utah State: 10 attempts · 0.6 YPC · 57.1% success · -0.061 raw PPA. | 10 | 0.6 | 3 | 10.6% | 70 / 2.5 |
Maxwell WoodsCFBD athlete 5227814 Week 6 vs Utah State: 5 attempts · 0.2 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.766 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Oregon State: 4 attempts · 0.8 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.394 raw PPA. | 9 | 0.4 | 0 | 9.6% | 40 / 3.6 |
San Diego State
3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 92 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.
| Player | Attempts | YPC | Sacks | Attributed share | Captured season attempts / YPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lucky SuttonCFBD athlete 4912453 Week 7 vs Fresno State: 18 attempts · 6.1 YPC · 33.3% success · 0.038 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Colorado State: 22 attempts · 4.5 YPC · 45.5% success · 0.247 raw PPA. | 40 | 5.2 | 0 | 43.5% | 85 / 4.2 |
Javion KinnardCFBD athlete 5254150 Week 6 vs Oregon State: 11 attempts · 3.9 YPC · 45.5% success · -0.038 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Fresno State: 14 attempts · 5.5 YPC · 57.1% success · 0.147 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Colorado State: 10 attempts · 9.4 YPC · 60.0% success · 0.820 raw PPA. | 35 | 6.1 | 0 | 38.0% | 91 / 5.8 |
Josiah LucasCFBD athlete 5245054 Week 6 vs Oregon State: 8 attempts · 1.3 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.885 raw PPA. | 8 | 1.3 | 0 | 8.7% | 42 / 4.0 |
Jayden DenegalCFBD athlete 4685311 Week 6 vs Oregon State: 1 attempts · 7.0 YPC · 0.0% success · 0.307 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Fresno State: 3 attempts · 2.7 YPC · 100.0% success · -0.101 raw PPA. | 4 | 3.8 | 1 | 4.3% | 23 / 0.1 |
Stone SaundersCFBD athlete 5141664 Week 7 vs Fresno State: 1 attempts · 0.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.842 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Colorado State: 2 attempts · -0.5 YPC · 0.0% success · 0.351 raw PPA. | 3 | -0.3 | 1 | 3.3% | 4 / -2.3 |
Team-only and unresolved attempts are outside this player population. Game PPA and success rates retain provider denominators; they are not pooled across games. Missing appearances do not establish player availability. This three-game window is separate from the 100-play form window.
Team matchup statistics
Offense vs defense
2026 season to date · through Week 8, captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.
| Measure | San Diego StateOffense | Washington StateDefense | Washington StateOffense | San Diego StateDefense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPA/play | -0.03 7th | +0.09 41st | -0.06 2nd | +0.15 23rd |
| Success rate | 36.8% 7th | 40.0% 56th | 34.1% 2nd | 49.0% 3rd |
| Explosiveness | 1.21 40th | 1.31 20th | 1.26 63rd | 1.09 95th |
| Standard-down PPA/play | -0.09 5th | +0.04 50th | -0.09 6th | +0.11 18th |
| Passing-down PPA/play | +0.09 20th | +0.20 42nd | +0.00 6th | +0.26 28th |
| Havoc allowed / created | 16.1% 31st | 12.4% 9th | 19.2% 5th | 11.3% 4th |
Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.
CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR
Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions
Preview captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:14:30 AM CDT · assembled Oct 30, 2026, 6:14:30 AM CDT
Checking current kickoff time before showing captured pregame metrics.
2026 kicker PAAR
Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:13:38 AM CDT.
- Jack Stevens · Washington State · PAAR -3.71 · 13 attempts
- Cooper DiLeva · San Diego State · PAAR 6.61 · 11 attempts
Player recent form
CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.
Checking kickoff before showing recent player metrics.
Captured line movement
Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Oct 30, 2026, 16:20:05 CDT · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.
Loading recorded line history… Open this game’s recorded history.
Line history & team context
Card snapshot lines
San Diego State spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.
DraftKings
CFBD-reported opening: -2.5 · Snapshot spread: -2.5
First locally observed: -3 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Total · CFBD-reported opening: 48.5 · Snapshot total: 48.5
Total · First locally observed: 48.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Total observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Home moneyline · Snapshot: -142 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Home moneyline · First locally observed: -155 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Home moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Away moneyline · Snapshot: +120 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Away moneyline · First locally observed: +130 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Away moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Bovada
CFBD-reported opening: -3 · Snapshot spread: -2.5
First locally observed: -3 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Total · CFBD-reported opening: 48.5 · Snapshot total: 48
Total · First locally observed: 48.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Total observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Home moneyline · Snapshot: -150 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Home moneyline · First locally observed: -150 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Home moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Away moneyline · Snapshot: +130 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Away moneyline · First locally observed: +130 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Away moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
San Diego State
Net adjusted EPA/play -0.1 · 7 rated weeks · Pac-12
Washington State
Net adjusted EPA/play -0.1 · 8 rated weeks · Pac-12
Travel
Washington State travels 964 miles (longer than 75% of road trips, 2017–2025) · no time-zone change · down 2,336 ft in elevation.
Distance uses the campuses because this schedule has no venue.
The 2017–2025 study found no overall ATS edge. Distance and time-zone groups cover near a coin flip. The 2,500+ mile group is above break-even but dominated by Hawai'i trips, so it is not a betting rule.
Series history
Washington State leads 3–1 in 4 meetings since 2007.
- 2025San Diego State at Washington State13–36 · Washington State
- 2024Washington State at San Diego State29–26 · Washington State
- 2011Washington State at San Diego State24–42 · San Diego State
- 2007San Diego State at Washington State17–45 · Washington State
CFBD matchup data Last 4 meetings shown. N marks a neutral site. History is not a projection input.
Team style charts
Model output, not betting advice. Historical hit rates are small-sample backtests; several edge buckets lose money at -110. Flat units only.